The composition of the unemployed population. Composition of the unemployed

The social composition of the unemployed is obtained by means of statistics when analyzing data from a sample survey on employment problems and from the employment service Appendix to Form No. 1-T (Employment) "Report on Employment and Employment of the Population" for the year. The Report contains information on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by sex, age, education level, reasons for dismissal, presence of children, profession, specialty). Studying the qualitative composition of the unemployed contributes to the development of a more effective employment policy (subsidies for job expansion, a system of training and retraining the labor force, encouraging entrepreneurial activity and etc.).

To correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed. In Russia, the severity of the problem of unemployment largely depends on changes in the structure of the economy and the conversion of the military-industrial complex.

Among the unemployed registered with the employment service, women predominate, while the total number of childless people, calculated according to the ILO methodology, is dominated by men.

The severity of the employment problem largely depends on structural changes in the economy.

The layoff of workers is often associated with technical progress, and with a decrease in production volumes, and with its reorganization, and with the conversion of the military-industrial complex.

Various reasons for the reduction of jobs determine the appropriate system of measures for social protection of the unemployed. At the same time, unequal real opportunities for assistance in finding a job, with significant differences in situations on the labor market, lead to a strong differentiation of regions in terms of the level of officially registered unemployment.

The range of the unemployment rate by region is quite wide: the coefficient of variation was 40.6%. The most acute problem of unemployment is in Ingushetia (51.1% of the unemployed), Kalmykia (30.8% of the unemployed), Dagestan (30% of the unemployed).

The educational level of the unemployed in Russia is one of the highest in the world. Unemployed women tend to have a higher level of education than men.

From the standpoint of the vocational guidance of the unemployed, it is necessary to study their age composition. The bulk of the unemployed in Russia are people of mature age.

The average age of the unemployed was 33.9 years. Youth unemployment is of particular social importance.

Age can also be taken into account when developing specific measures to help the unemployed. For example, in France, after the expiry of the term for the payment of unemployment benefits (65 months), unemployment assistance is allocated, the amount of which depends on the age of the unemployed: from 65 to 130 francs. for one person per day.

In statistics, a great deal of experience has been accumulated in studying the composition of the employed. First of all, the sectoral composition of the employed is considered, both in the country as a whole and in its individual regions. V last years there is a decrease in the number of people employed both in general and in individual industries material production... In the non-production sphere, there is an increase in employment in lending, insurance and in the management apparatus.

The largest part of the employed (first place) is employed in the manufacturing industry. The second place in terms of economic activity is occupied by trade, car repair, household appliances and personal items; third - Agriculture, hunting, forestry; the fourth is education; fifth - transport, storage and communications.

When studying the composition of the employed, statisticians are guided by the International Classification of Status in Employment (ICSA).

Employment status is determined for the economically active population, that is, for both employed and unemployed. For the unemployed who previously had a job, the status is determined by their previous employment.

In accordance with the ICSZ Goskomstat of Russia, the classification by status in employment includes the following categories:

a) employees;

b) persons working on an individual basis;

c) employers;

d) unpaid family workers;

e) members of collective enterprises;

f) persons who cannot be classified by status.

Currently in Russia 93% is wage-earners, i.e., employees who have entered into an employment contract, a contract with the head of the enterprise or an oral agreement with an individual on the conditions of work and the amount of remuneration. This also includes persons appointed to a paid position, including heads of enterprises and organizations.

To persons working on an individual basis, include citizens who independently carry out activities that generate income, without using hired labor (with the exception of casual or seasonal work). This group of people is not large yet - 4.2%.

TO employers include persons who manage their own private (family) enterprise, farm or work independently, but constantly use labor employees. In the total number of entrepreneurs running their own business (0.9%), men predominate, although gradually women are increasingly engaged in it. As the English say, "there are no men and women in business, there are business partners."

Unpaid family workersare persons who work without pay in a private family business owned by a relative.

Members of collective enterprises- persons working for this enterprise and who are the owners, co-owners of it. They are directly involved in resolving all issues related to the activities of the enterprise, the distribution of its income among the team members.

Persons not amenable to classification by status in employment, there are persons whose information is insufficient and (or) who cannot be attributed to any of the listed categories.

For hired workers, statistics study the social composition of the employed, dividing workers into workers and employees

According to the results of the 2010 census, 1.7 million people employed (2.5%) indicated that they have more than one job. Of the total number of people employed in the economy at the age of 15-72, the absolute majority - 61.6 million people (94%) - are employed. Compared to 2002, the number of employees increased by 5.8%.

The number of employers who hire employees for their activities amounted to 1.4 million people (in 2002 - 923 thousand people).

The change in the economic activity of the population aged 15-64 living in private households in the intercensal period is characterized by the following data:

Table 7 - Composition of unemployed and employed

Examples of solving problems:

Objective 1.

The following data are available on the size of the economically active population (thousand).

Population 2515

Employed workers of working age 920

Individuals 120

Unpaid family workers 125

Employers 15

Members of cooperatives 150

Collective farmers 90

Persons without a job and looking for it (previously employed) 145

First time job seekers 5

Younger people 50

Students of working age with a break from work 150

Household and childcare workers 150

Pensioners and disabled people 520

Employed persons of retirement age 30

Employed persons under working age 10

Non-working persons of working age who do not need to work 30

Persons who have been unemployed for a long time, who have stopped looking, but are ready to work 5

Determine the following indicators: the number of employed, the number of unemployed, the number of economically active population, the coefficient of economic activity, the rate of employment.

Solution:

1. The number of employed (

2. The number of unemployed (

3. The number of economically active population (

4. Coefficient of economic activity (

5. Employment ratio (

Objective 2.

The payroll number of employees of the enterprise was (people):

Determine the average payroll number of employees of the enterprise.

Solution:

The average number of employees of the enterprise is determined by the formula of the arithmetic weighted average:

Questions for self-test:

1. What groups of the population form labor resources?

2. What does the term “economically active population” mean?

3. What groups of the population belong to the economically inactive population?

4. How are unemployed people defined by the ILO?

5. What indicators characterize the state of labor resources?

6. Name the groups of the economically active population in the classification by status in employment.

7. How are the indicators of the demographic load of the population calculated?

8. What sources of information about the labor market do you know?

9. Explain on conditional examples the methodology for calculating the average payroll: 1) for a month; 2) for a quarter, half a year, a year.

Sanitary statistics

1. Sanitary statistics: tasks and data sources. Clinical statistics concept

2. Indicators of health of the population: demographic, morbidity and self-assessment of health by the population

3. Indicators characterizing the health care system and the level medical services

4. Indicators of industrial injuries

5. Indicators characterizing the state environment in terms of their safety for humans

Economically active population - persons of the age established to measure the economic activity of the population who are considered employed or unemployed during the period under review (survey week). B> Employed in the economy - persons who, during the period under review, performed paid employment, as well as income-generating self-employment, both with and without the involvement of employees. The number of employed includes persons who performed work as helpers in a family enterprise, persons who were temporarily absent from work, as well as persons engaged in household production of goods and services for sale.

Unemployed (in relation to the standards The International Organization labor) - persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, who, during the period under review, simultaneously met the following criteria:

· Did not have a job (profitable occupation);

· Were looking for a job, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly addressed the organization's administration or employer, used personal connections, etc., or took steps to organize their own business;

· Were ready to start work during the surveyed week.

· Pupils, students, retirees and people with disabilities are counted as unemployed if they are looking for work and are ready to start working.

Unemployed people registered with the state employment service are able-bodied citizens who do not have work and earnings (labor income), living in the territory Russian Federation registered with the employment center at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, job seekers who are ready to start it.

The level of economic activity of the population is the ratio of the economically active population of a certain age group to the total population of the corresponding age group, calculated as a percentage.

Employment rate is the ratio of the employed population of a certain age group to the total population of the corresponding age group, calculated as a percentage.

The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed in a certain age group to the number of economically active population in the corresponding age group, calculated as a percentage.

The registered unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed registered with the state employment service to the number of the economically active population, calculated as a percentage.

The number of employed according to the materials of the population survey on employment problems includes persons aged 15-72 who did work during the reporting week (at least 1 hour) or were temporarily absent. Data on the average annual number of people employed in the economy are formed for the main job once a year when compiling a balance of labor resources based on information from organizations, materials from a sample survey of the population on employment problems, data from executive authorities, estimates of the number of employees not identified during a sample survey of the population by employment problems.

Duration of unemployment (duration job search) - the period of time during which a person, being unemployed, is looking for work, using any means.

A strike means a temporary voluntary refusal of employees to perform their labor duties (in whole or in part) in order to resolve a collective labor dispute. A strike is not considered a suspension of work due to a shortage of equipment, raw materials, materials, component parts due to a strike in supplier organizations.

The number of workers involved in strikes does not include workers who were absent from their workplace for reasons such as illness, annual leave, business trip, etc.

The number of victims of accidents at work with disability for one working day or more and with a fatal outcome includes persons subject to registration on the basis of an act in the form of N - 1.

1.3 System of indicators characterizing unemployment

The main indicators of unemployment are: the level of general unemployment, the level of registered unemployment and the duration of unemployment.

The unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of employed and unemployed (in percentage) according to the following formula (1):

UB = B / (Z + B) H 100% (1)

where UB is the unemployment rate;

З - the number of employees;

B - the number of unemployed.

The level of registered unemployment, determined by the ratio of the number of unemployed registered with the employment service to the number of the economically active population:

Urb = Chrb / Zang x 100% (2)

Where Urb is the level of registered unemployment;

Chrb - the number of registered unemployed;

Chean - the number of the economically active population;

This indicator is of an administrative nature. If a person came to the employment service, he was registered, put on record. He comes to the employment service, it is noted, he is paid an allowance. Such people are considered unemployed within the administrative system.

The duration of unemployment is characterized by the time spent without work and is defined as the average length of stay without work of all unemployed or their individual categories or unemployed individual territories, etc. When the duration of the job search period exceeds a calendar year, unemployment is considered dangerous, “stagnant”.

The total duration of employment of citizens (person-days) can be determined from the personal registration cards of those who applied for employment assistance. The duration of employment is calculated for all citizens employed in the reporting year, based on data on the date of deregistration due to employment and on the day of registration of the person applying for employment. Based on this indicator, it is possible to determine the average duration of employment of citizens for the year using the formula (3):

Similarly, for all unemployed employed in the reporting year, the total duration of employment of the unemployed (person-days) is calculated. At the same time, the duration of the search for work of each is considered from the date of registration of a person as "unemployed" to deregistration due to his employment.

Further, this indicator can be used to calculate the average duration of employment of the unemployed in days (by dividing it by the total number of unemployed employed in the reporting year). For predictive calculations of the number of unemployed, the level of population appeal to the employment service is analyzed. The intensity of labor demand can be estimated through the number of requests for employment per 1000 people able-bodied population at working age.

General unemployment rate, which is defined as specific gravity unemployed in the number of economically active population (EAP) at the beginning (end) of the period or on average per year:

Often, the unemployment rate is defined as the proportion of the unemployed in the total labor force. The unemployment rate found in this way turns out to be lower in value than that considered earlier (in% to the EAN). There is approximately the following connection between them:

Unemployment rate in labor force = unemployment rate in% to EAN *

* the share of EAN in the labor force (6)

The above interconnection of indicators is valid only as a whole. In a number of cases, their violations are possible, if among the unemployed there is a large proportion of persons of incapacitated age (for example, pensioners, job seekers and those who are ready to start it), because the age limits for the categories of labor resources and the economically active population do not coincide. However, in most cases, the above equalities take place.

The sum of the indicators of the levels of employment and unemployment in the labor force gives the share of the economically active population in the labor force. Missing up to 100 percent - economically inactive population, which is not part of the labor force. Since the number of the economically active population, the number of employed and unemployed are additively related, the dynamics of these indicators is characterized as follows:

where Ke is the growth rate of the economically active population;

Кз and Кб are the growth rates of the number of employed and unemployed;

Uz0 and Ub0 are the levels of employment and unemployment in the base period.

The rate of dynamics of the total number of unemployed is determined by the indicators of growth rates. Although changes in the unemployment rate can be measured by growth rates, they can be more clearly characterized in the form absolute gains expressed in percentage points. The change in points of the unemployment rate can be determined based on the dynamics model of the economically active population:

where OUb is the absolute change in the unemployment rate, expressed in percentage points.

As a rule, the unemployment rate, calculated according to the ILO methodology based on sample surveys, is 3-6 times higher than the level registered with the State Employment Service of the Russian Federation. The differences between these indicators are even more noticeable if we take into account the composition of the unemployed by gender. An assessment of the significance of such a difference can be given using the F-test of Fisher, if we consider the sample materials before distributing them to the general population:

F = Dact / Dost (9)

where Dfact and Dres are factorial and residual variances per degree of freedom.

To determine these variances, you can use the following formulas (10, 11), taking into account the rule for adding variances of an alternative feature:

where k is the number of population groups by sex,

рj - the share of the unemployed who applied to the employment service in the total number of unemployed (separately among men and among women);

p is the average share of the unemployed who applied to the employment service as a whole according to the survey;

nj - the number of unemployed - separately for men and women;

n is the total number of unemployed.

Factorial dispersion characterizes the gender differences in the level of the unemployed applying to the employment service. The residual variance estimates the variation in the share of unemployed who applied to the employment service, regardless of the gender of citizens. So, if F - the actual criterion exceeds the tabular value, then the composition of the unemployed by sex determines significant differences in the level of unemployment officially registered with the employment services.

Current employment statistics from employment services are used to estimate the total number of unemployed between employment surveys. To calculate the number of unemployed in the months between two surveys, interpolation of the ratio of the number of unemployed, obtained according to the survey data, and the number of unemployed population recorded in the employment service at the corresponding date is used. The methodology for such calculations can be different depending on the adopted interpolation concept.

First, it is determined how the ratio of the total number of unemployed, obtained according to the survey data, and the number of the unemployed population registered with the employment service, has changed over the period between the last two surveys.

Cn = xn / yn; C0 = x0 / y0; ? = Сn-C0; ? =? / t,

where xn and x0 are the total number of unemployed according to the data of the last two surveys;

yn and y0 are the number of unemployed population registered with the employment service;

Cn and C0 - the ratio of the total number of unemployed;

Changes in these relationships between the last two surveys;

Changes in the ratios between the two surveys on average per month;

t is the number of months between two adjacent surveys.

If we assume that this ratio increases by the same amount every month, then the total number of unemployed at the end of the month under consideration will be determined as:

where t - serial number months after the date of the previous survey;

Yt is the number of unemployed population not registered with the employment service at the end of the considered month t.

Another method of interpolating the number of unemployed between two survey dates is also possible, assuming that the monthly ratio of the two sources of information on the number of unemployed changes not arithmetically, but exponentially (by the same number of times). For this purpose, we determine the overall growth rate of this ratio:

those. the growth rate of the ratio of data for the period between two adjacent surveys.

The average monthly growth rate of this ratio is found as:

Then, assuming that this ratio changes monthly by the same number of times - k, the number of unemployed in the month t can be estimated by the formula (15):

In theory, both interpolation options are equal, although in practice the first method is preferred as the simpler one.

Statistics study the composition of the population looking for a job and applying to the employment service by gender, age and education. As a result of the activity of the employment service, the number of citizens employed by its bodies in the total number of applicants is determined. The largest share among the employed is made up of citizens who are not employed as the most in need of support.

For all unemployed employed in the reporting year, the total duration of employment of the unemployed (person-days) is calculated. In this case, the duration of the search for work of each is considered from the date of registration of a person as unemployed until deregistration due to his employment. Further, this indicator can be used to calculate the average duration of employment of the unemployed in days (by dividing it by the total number of unemployed employed in the reporting year).

For predictive calculations of the number of unemployed, the level of population appeal to the employment service is analyzed. The intensity of demand for labor can be estimated through the number of requests for employment per 1000 people of the working-age population of working age, i.e.

The effectiveness of the work of employment services for the employment of the population largely depends on the reliability and timeliness of information from enterprises about the need for labor, about job vacancies. At present, the load of the unemployed population per one vacancy is determined by regions of Russia. This indicator captures the scale of tension in the labor market.

By means of statistics, when analyzing data from a sample survey on employment problems and from the employment services according to the appendix to form No. 1-T "Report on employment and employment of the population", the social composition of the unemployed is obtained. The report contains information on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by sex, age, education level, reasons for dismissal, presence of children, profession, specialty). The study of the qualitative composition of the unemployed contributes to the development of a more effective employment policy (subsidies for the expansion of jobs, the system of training and retraining of the labor force, the encouragement of entrepreneurial activity, etc.)

The educational composition of the unemployed can be compared with a similar composition of the employed. From the standpoint of the vocational guidance of the unemployed, it is necessary to study their age composition.

To predict employment and unemployment, information about the duration of unemployment is needed. Based on the distribution of the unemployed, it is possible to approximately determine the average duration of unemployment as an arithmetic weighted average:

where Ti is the time of absence of work in the i-th group;

Ni is the number of unemployed in the i-th group.

The median of the duration of unemployment is determined by the formula (17):

Me = x0 + i * (NMe-SMe-1) / fMe (17)

where x0 is the lower bound of the median interval, i.e. the first interval with an accumulated frequency of 50% or more;

i is the value of the median interval;

NMe - ordinal number of the median;

SMe-1 is the cumulative frequency of the premedian interval;

fMe is the local frequency of the median interval.

This indicator characterizes the fact that about half of the unemployed are looking for work more than the found median value.

Job search time is closely related to the age of the unemployed and varies significantly by gender. Coefficients of correlation and determination are calculated. The significance of these differences is confirmed by the value of F-Fisher's criterion, which should be higher than the table value. The calculation of the F-criterion is carried out according to the formula (18):

F = r2 / (1-r2) * (n-2) (18)

where n is the number of age groups.

In order to correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed (in connection with the release due to staff reductions, liquidation of an organization, their own business, with dismissal of their own free will). Various reasons for the reduction of jobs determine the appropriate system of measures for social protection of the unemployed. At the same time, unequal real opportunities for assistance in finding a job, with significant differences in situations on the labor market, lead to a strong differentiation of regions in terms of the level of officially registered unemployment.

In world practice, a great deal of experience has been accumulated in the study of unemployment, and in Russia it is a fundamentally new phenomenon in the life of society that arose in the early 1990s. Families that include the unemployed are one of the new risk groups, the least protected part of the population.

Unemployment entails serious economic and social consequences... The first of them include the following:

• under-production, underutilization of the production capabilities of society. The relationship between the unemployment rate and the lag in the gross national product (GNP) is reflected in the Okun's law: 1% excess of the actual unemployment rate over the natural one leads to the lag of the actual GNP by 2.5% of the potential;
• a significant decrease in the standard of living of people who find themselves unemployed, since work is their main source of livelihood;
• slowdown in level growth wages employed as a result of the emerging competition in the labor market;
• increase tax burden on the employed because of the need for social support for the unemployed: payments of benefits and compensations, etc.

In addition to economic consequences, unemployment has serious social and psychological consequences, often less obvious, but even more significant than economic ones. The main ones include the following:

• increased political instability and social tension in society;
• aggravation of the criminogenic situation, an increase in crime;
• an increase in the number of suicides, mental and cardiovascular diseases, mortality from alcoholism;
• loss of qualifications and practical skills by non-working people; aggravation of family relations and an increase in divorce; reduction of external social ties of the unemployed.

TO unemployed in accordance with the definition given by the ILO, persons of the age established for measuring economic activity, who during the period under consideration can be simultaneously characterized according to the following criteria, are considered:

• a) did not have a job (profitable occupation);
• b) were looking for a job during the four weeks preceding the surveyed week, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service or directly to the administration of the enterprise (employer), used or placed advertisements in the press, tried to use personal connections, etc. or have taken steps to start their own business;
• c) were ready to start work during the surveyed week.

When conducting a population survey on employment issues and measuring unemployment, the criterion for unemployment refers to the surveyed week; the job search criterion applies to the four weeks preceding the surveyed week; the criterion of readiness to start work - two weeks after the surveyed week. Although each criterion has its own time limits, the unemployment rate refers to the surveyed week. Pupils, students, people with disabilities and retirees are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start working. The occupations and types of activities of the unemployed, as noted above, are determined by the last place of work.

Employment surveys provide comparable information on the number and composition of the unemployed for the following characteristics:

• gender (highlighting the least socially protected unemployed - women);
• age (highlighting youth unemployment);
• place of residence (with separation of urban and rural population);
• level of education;
• marital status;
• reasons for dismissal;
• duration and methods of job search;
• work experience;
• types of activities.

In addition to the number of unemployed, determined in the process of surveys according to the ILO methodology, it is also determined number of officially registered unemployed in the bodies of the employment service. In accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation, this category includes able-bodied citizens who do not have work and earnings (labor income), living in the Russian Federation, registered at the employment center at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start it. According to the legislation of the Russian Federation, citizens cannot be recognized as unemployed:

• 1) those who have not reached the age of 16, as well as citizens who, in accordance with the pension legislation, have been assigned an old-age (but old-age) pension for length of service;
• 2) those who have refused, within 10 days from the date of contacting the employment service, from two options for suitable work, including temporary work, and for the first time looking for a job without a profession (specialty) - in the case of two refusals to receive vocational training or from the offered paid job , including work of a temporary nature;
• 3) those who did not appear without a valid reason within 10 days from the date of registration in order to search for a suitable job in the employment service to offer them a suitable job, as well as those who did not come within the time period established by them for registration as unemployed.

The number of unemployed, which, according to the ILO methodology, is determined based on the results of a population survey on employment problems, differs significantly from the number of officially registered unemployed (on average, three times). If according to the survey data at the end of November 2005 the number of unemployed was 5.2 million, then according to Rosstat the number of unemployed registered with the state employment services as of the same date was 1.8 million.

In the statistical study of unemployment, it is considered as an imbalance in the labor market. In this regard, in international practice stand out the following types unemployment: frictional (current), seasonal, opportunistic, structural. a brief description of each type of unemployment is presented in table. 3.14.

Table 3.14

Characteristics of the types of unemployment

The most serious problem in modern conditions is structural unemployment, which exists even during periods of economic growth. Currently, the concept of structural unemployment is interpreted as follows:

• 1) in the narrow sense, structural unemployment is persistent unemployment: there is a sufficient number of job vacancies, which, however, does not correspond to the qualifications of the unemployed. Its prerequisite is the presence, at least in certain areas of the labor market in certain regions, professions and qualifications, of a labor shortage;
• 2) structural unemployment manifests itself in situations characterized by a persistent shortage of jobs due to insufficient economic growth;
• 3) in a broader sense, structural unemployment is either temporary or long-term underemployment due to changes in the structure of the economy.

The number of unemployed in Russia reached the highest value in 1999; in subsequent years, there is a clear tendency towards a decrease in the number of unemployed. The difference between the number of officially registered unemployed and the total number of unemployed, calculated according to the ILO methodology, is to some extent explained by the lack of incentive to register the unemployed with the employment service due to the complexity of this process and the small size of unemployment benefits. Starting from the second half of 1999, there has been a decrease in the total number of unemployed, determined according to the ILO methodology, but the number of officially registered unemployed has increased since 2000: in 2005, compared to 2000, the rate of its growth was 78.14%. The number of female unemployed decreased over this period by 21.2%, the rate of decline in the total number of unemployed slowed down significantly: if in 2000 compared to 1999 it decreased by 22.8%, then in 2005 compared to 2004 year - by 8.87%.

At the end of January 2007, in accordance with the ILO methodology, the number of unemployed amounted to 5.3 million people, or 7.1% of the economically active population. 1.7 million people were registered with the state employment service.

Table 3.15

Unemployment rates in Russia

Published, given in table. 3.15, it is obvious that women predominate in the structure of officially registered unemployment. Women's unemployment is often the result of a variety of discriminatory processes in recruitment policies: selection based on gender, priority in dismissal of workers, etc. For the period 2000-2005. the share of women in the composition of the officially registered unemployed was more than 2/3. The share of women in the number of unemployed, as determined by the ILO methodology, is significantly lower. These differences are primarily due to the fact that the least active and competitive part of the population, to which women traditionally belong, turns to the employment service (according to surveys, most men consider themselves unworthy to apply to the employment service, as this may indicate their inability to independently solve the problem with work).

According to the data given in table. 3.15, the unemployment rate, calculated according to the ILO methodology, is decreasing, including for women and men.

One of the most important directions in the analysis of unemployment is the study of its duration. According to population surveys on employment problems, the distribution of the unemployed according to the duration of the job search is considered with the allocation of data on urban and rural population, gender and age. In addition to the characteristics of the structure of the unemployed by the duration of the job search, it is calculated average duration of a job search, defined as follows:

where is the time of job search in i-th group; - the number of unemployed in i group.

Russia is characterized by a high average duration of a job search in comparison with developed countries... Let us consider the results of the distribution of the unemployed in Russia by the duration of the job search in 2004 and 2005. Initial information is presented in table. 3.16.

For comparison, we present the values ​​of the share of those who were looking for a job for 12 months. and more in 1999. On the whole, for all the unemployed, it was 47.2%, for men - 39.4%, for women - 51.5%. The average duration of a job search in the same year was 9.7 months, including 9.2 months for men. and for women - 10.2 months.

Table 3.16

The structure of the unemployed by duration of job search (on average for February - November 2007 and 2008),%

According to the results of the analysis of the data in Table. 3.16, the following conclusions can be drawn:

• in comparison with 1999, in 2008 the average duration of job search is decreasing (for all unemployed by 17.5%, for women by 17.6%);
• the share of unemployed with a duration of job search of 12 months. and more decreases, and this pattern can be traced for both men and women, but the share of women in this group of unemployed is much higher. Moreover, with a decrease in this share, to the greatest extent in women, in men, it decreased by 1.6 percentage points. in 2008 compared to 1999;
• all distributions are characterized by a significant left-sided asymmetry, since about 40% of the unemployed have been looking for work for a year or more;
• the average duration of a job search for women in Russia is longer than for men, but it is decreasing for both men and women;
• in 2008, compared to 2007, the proportion of the unemployed increased in three groups: those looking for work for less than 1 month. (by 2 pp), from 1 to 6 months. (by 2.7 pp) and from 3 to 6 months. (by 1.3 pp);
• the aggregate of the unemployed in terms of the duration of the job search is heterogeneous, as evidenced by the high values ​​of the coefficients of variation (about 60%).

The study of the distribution of unemployed people of different ages by the duration of the job search suggests the existence of a relationship between the age of the unemployed and the duration of the job search.

For young people aged 20 to 24, the average time for finding a job in February - November 2008 was 6.6 months, for unemployed people aged 25-29, this average was 8.0 months, the average time for finding a job increased sharply at the age of 45–49 years - 9.3 months. and at the age of 55 to 59 years - 9.5 months.

Let us consider the composition of the unemployed by education level and find out whether there are differences in the vocational education of the unemployed in urban settlements and countryside(Table 3.17).

Table 3.17

Unemployed by education level (average for February - November 2008 g.)

According to the survey data for 2008, 14.7% of the unemployed had higher and incomplete higher professional education; for the employed population, this share was 28.7%. In urban settlements, the share of unemployed with higher education and incomplete higher education is almost 2 times higher than this share in rural areas. Unemployed people with secondary (complete) general education make up the largest share - 33.3%, including in cities - 29.8%, in rural areas - 39.0%.

In this regard, the question arises about the degree of effectiveness of the use of the educational potential of the labor force in the Russian Federation.

If the above data are supplemented with a characteristic of the unemployment rate among specialists of various specialties, then we will receive certain information to analyze the current need for specialists of a certain qualification.

Thus, in November 2004, among young people aged 20-29, who received higher and secondary economic Education, about 182 thousand people were unemployed. For groups of construction specialties, the unemployment rate in the same age group with the same level of education was 8.4%. The unemployment rate is even higher among people aged 20-29 who have received higher and secondary vocational education in agricultural professions - 14.9%.

If we take into account that, on average, persons with higher professional education spent 8.1 months on average looking for a job in 2005, and 8.5 months with a secondary education, it becomes obvious high degree underutilization of specialists with high level vocational education.

Unemployment in market economy to a certain extent is considered as inevitable, and its natural level in economically developed countries is estimated at 7%.

Most overall indicator characterizing unemployment is unemployment rate:

If we compare the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation with developed countries, then our country will be in the middle group. So, in 2008, the share of the unemployed in the economically active population was 7.0% in Russia, while in Japan - 4.0%, Great Britain - 5.3%, and the USA - 5.8%.

However, if we consider the unemployment rate in the regions, then the situation will not be so favorable. On average, for February - November 2008 in the Southern, Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts, the unemployment rate exceeds the national average - 6.3% (Table 3.18).

The share of the unemployed in the economically active population in rural areas is significantly higher: with the average Russian Federation level, the weight of unemployment in villages is 9.6% in the Southern Federal District, it is 13.1%, in the Siberian Federal District - 12.1%. The least favorable situation with unemployment is in the Southern Federal District. More detailed data by region federal districts are contained in table. 3.19.

Table 3.18

Unemployment rate in federal districts (average for February - November 2005),%

Table 3.13

The main parameters of the unemployment rate by regions of federal districts (for February - November 2005 g)

The lowest unemployment rate during this period was in Moscow - 0.9%, and the highest - 55.0% - in the Republic of Ingushetia. Having ranked all regions of the Russian Federation by the unemployment rate, we determine the first quartile ( Q 1 = 5.3%), median (Me= 7.3%) and the third quartile ( Q 3 = 8.5%). This allows us to conclude that in 25% of the regions of the Russian Federation the unemployment rate was below 5.3%, in half of the regions it was below 7.3%, and in 25% of regions it was above 8.5%. The quarterly deviation was 1.6. In most federal districts (except for the Southern and Ural), the level of unemployment for men exceeded the level of unemployment for women, and on average in the Russian Federation this excess was 0.5 percentage points. The unemployment rate in rural areas exceeds its level in cities by 1.8 times.

When analyzing the dynamics of unemployment for the aggregate of federal districts, the variable composition index is calculated:

where and - the average unemployment rate in the country, respectively, in the reporting and base periods; and - the number of economically active population ./ -th federal district, respectively, in the reporting and base periods; and - unemployment rate in j-m federal district, respectively, in the reporting and base period; - specific gravity j-th federal body in the number of the economically active population of the country.

The value of the unemployment rate index of variable composition is formed under the influence of changes in two factors:

• 1) the unemployment rate in individual federal districts;
• 2) the distribution of the economically active population by federal districts.

The influence of the first factor is estimated using the fixed-composition unemployment rate index

To measure the impact of changes in the distribution of the economically active population by federal districts on the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the country, the index of the influence of structural changes is calculated:

Factor analysis makes it possible to explain the change in the number of unemployed under the influence of changes in the unemployment rate in federal districts, changes in the distribution of the number of economically active settlements in federal districts and changes in the total number of economically active population in the country.

The change in the number of unemployed (ΔCW) is presented as follows:

The second term can be presented in a slightly different form, which will supplement the analysis with an assessment of the influence of the structural factor on the change in the number of unemployed.

Data for the analysis of the dynamics of the unemployment rate for 2003 and 2005. are given in table. 3.20.

Table 3.20

Unemployment rate in federal districts for 2003 and 2005

The most significant decrease in the unemployment rate took place in four federal districts: Central, South, Siberian and Ural.

The unemployment rate index of variable composition, equal to 0.733, indicates that in 2008 compared to 2003, unemployment in the Russian Federation decreased by 26.7% (6.3: 8.6).

The decrease in the average level of unemployment in Russia, due to its decrease in all federal districts, amounted to 25.0%.

Thus, due to changes in the distribution of the economically active population by federal districts, the average unemployment rate in the Russian Federation increased by 5.9% in 2008 compared to the value of this indicator in 2003.

Particular attention is currently paid to the analysis of employment and unemployment among youth.

The United Nations Millennium Declaration, approved in September 2000, set out, among other pressing targets to combat poverty, disease, illiteracy, pollution and discrimination against women, the task of “developing and implementing decent and productive work policies for youth”. As an indicator for monitoring the implementation of this task, the UN indicator system includes the indicator unemployment rate in the 15-24 age group, which is determined by the ratio of the number of unemployed in this age group to the number of economically active population in this group.

According to the results of a population survey on employment problems in November 2005, 1 million 481 thousand young people aged 15-24 were classified as unemployed, and the unemployment rate was 15.64% in this age group as a whole. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the group of 15–20 years old was equal to 29.16%, and in the group of 20–24 years old - 12.29%. In the total number of unemployed, the share of youth under the age of 20 is 10.5%, in the age of 20-24 - 17.9%. From 2000 to 2005, the share of young people under the age of 20 and 20-24 in the total number of unemployed increased by 1.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively. The average age of the unemployed has also dropped. So, but according to the data of November surveys of the population on the problems of employment, the average age of the unemployed was 34.9 years in 2004, 34.8 years in 2005, and 34.3 years in 2006.

Table 3.21 shows data on the level of youth unemployment by age groups for 1998-2008. (at the end of November). The unemployment rate at the age of 20-24 tends to decrease (compared to 1998, it decreased by 42.9%), as well as the unemployment rate of young people under the age of 20, which decreased by 31.6% during the study period. %. Finally, the youth unemployment rate is very much higher than the survey average unemployment rate. It should be noted that such a high level of unemployment among young people is determined not only by the large number of job seekers, but also by a significant share of the economically inactive population, since at the age of 15-24 a significant part of young people are day students. educational institutions... So, in 2004, 79% of young people aged 15–20 years studied in daytime departments of educational institutions, at the age of 20–24 years, the share of students was about 26%. This means that the number of the economically active population in the indicated age groups is decreasing and, as a result, the unemployment rate is growing, which is calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of the economically active population.

Table 3.21

The unemployment rate of the population of Russia in different age groups,%

In 2008, compared to 2000, the number of employed youth under the age of 20 decreased by 314 thousand people, or by 19.7%; at the age of 20-24, the number employed persons increased by 1123 thousand people or by 18.0%. The structure of jobs for employed youth is characterized by a higher proportion of those employed in the informal sector, which is especially characteristic of young people in rural areas, where the proportion of those employed in the informal sector at the age of 15-19 reaches 40%.

At the same time, it should be noted as a positive fact that in 2005 the proportion of young people under the age of 30 in the composition of managers at all levels was 12.6%.

• Labor market statistics. T. 8. Federal statistical office Germany. - 1999 .-- S. 27, 28.

For predictive calculations of the number of unemployed, the level of population appeal to the employment service is analyzed. The intensity of demand for labor can be estimated through the number of requests for employment per 1000 people of the working-age population of working age, i.e.

The effectiveness of the work of employment services for the employment of the population largely depends on the reliability and timeliness of information from enterprises about the need for labor, about job vacancies. At present, the load of the unemployed population per one vacancy is determined by regions of Russia. This indicator captures the scale of tension in the labor market.

By means of statistics, when analyzing data from a sample survey on employment problems and from the employment services according to the appendix to form No. 1-T "Report on employment and employment of the population", the social composition of the unemployed is obtained. The report contains information on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by sex, age, education level, reasons for dismissal, presence of children, profession, specialty). The study of the qualitative composition of the unemployed contributes to the development of a more effective employment policy (subsidies for the expansion of jobs, the system of training and retraining of the labor force, the encouragement of entrepreneurial activity, etc.)

The educational composition of the unemployed can be compared with a similar composition of the employed. From the standpoint of the vocational guidance of the unemployed, it is necessary to study their age composition.

To predict employment and unemployment, information about the duration of unemployment is needed. Based on the distribution of the unemployed, it is possible to approximately determine the average duration of unemployment as an arithmetic weighted average:

where T i - time of absence of work in the i-th group;

N i - the number of unemployed in the i-th group.

The median of the duration of unemployment is determined by the formula:

Me = x 0 + i * (N Me -S Me-1) / f Me

where x 0 is the lower bound of the median interval, i.e. the first interval with an accumulated frequency of 50% or more;

i is the value of the median interval;

N Me is the ordinal number of the median;

S Me -1 - accumulated frequency of the premedian interval;

f Me - local frequency of the median interval.

This indicator characterizes the fact that about half of the unemployed are looking for work more than the found median value.

Job search time is closely related to the age of the unemployed and varies significantly by gender. Coefficients of correlation and determination are calculated. The significance of these differences is confirmed by the value of F-Fisher's criterion, which should be higher than the table value. Calculation of the F-criterion is carried out according to the formula:

F = r 2 / (1-r 2) * (n-2),

where n is the number of age groups.

In order to correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed (in connection with the release due to staff reductions, liquidation of an organization, their own business, with dismissal of their own free will). Various reasons for the reduction of jobs determine the appropriate system of measures for social protection of the unemployed. At the same time, unequal real opportunities for assistance in finding a job, with significant differences in situations on the labor market, lead to a strong differentiation of regions in terms of the level of officially registered unemployment.

2. ANALYSIS OF THE COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE OF THE UNEMPLOYED POPULATION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Unemployment has become a common phenomenon for some categories of the population. In 2009, in the economically active population, 67.7 million people were classified as employed in economic activity and 7.1 million people - unemployed - these are persons who do not have a job or profitable occupation, who are looking for a job and are ready to start it, and in accordance with with the criteria of the International Labor Organization (ILO) are classified as unemployed. In February 2009. the number of economically active population was lower than in November 2008, by 1.1 million people, or 1.5%. This decline is entirely determined by the decline in the employed population. The number of unemployed, in accordance with the ILO methodology, in February 2009 was 1.8 million people, or a third higher than in November 2008. and February 2008. The unemployment rate, calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population, in February 2009 amounted to 9.5% and was 2.5-2.4 percentage points higher than in November 2008. and February 2008 (Table 2.1.)

Table 2.1.- The number of economically active population

Continuation of table 2.1.

The number of unemployed and the unemployment rate in February 2009 were, on average, one third lower than in February 1999, when their maximum value was noted.

Since 1995, the annual share of the unemployed in the active population has been in the range of 5-13%. Let's start with an analysis of their age composition, according to the data in Table 2.2. and Figure 2.1., which clearly demonstrates to us the structure of the distribution of the unemployed by age group.

Table 2.2.- Distribution of unemployed by age group

Figure 2.1.- The structure of the unemployed by age group

Attention is drawn to the fact that throughout the past years, the leading age group among the unemployed, according to annual surveys, has been youth. She occupied 37-49% of the total number of unemployed, while the 30-39-year-olds accounted for 19-28%, and 40-49 (54) - 15-28% in the summer. Although compared to 1998. Among these three groups, the number of unemployed youth decreased the most by (1.8 million people) in 2008, it amounted to 1.7 million people and was, respectively, 1.9 and 1.5 times more than in groups of 30 39 and 40-40 (54) - year olds.

Composition of the unemployed

The social composition of the unemployed is obtained by statistical tools when analyzing information from a sample survey on employment problems and from employment services according to the annex to the form No. 1-T (employment) "Report on employment and employment of the population" for the year. This Report contains data on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by sex, age, education level, presence of children, reasons for dismissal, profession, specialty). The study of the qualitative composition of the unemployed helps to develop more effective employment policies (subsidies for job expansion, a system of training and retraining of the workforce, encouraging entrepreneurship, etc.).

To correctly assess the situation on the labor market, you need to consider the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed.

Among the reasons for losing a job significant role played not only the release of workers in connection with the reorganization of production, but also their dismissal of their own accord, which often hides not only dissatisfaction with the content and working conditions, its payment, but also structural changes in production. The share of people who quit for other reasons, which are not revealed by statistics today, is also huge.

Among the unemployed registered in the employment services, women prevail, while in the total number of childless people, as determined by the ILO methodology, men prevail. For reasons of unemployment, voluntary dismissal is more common among men.

In Russia, the educational level of the unemployed is one of the highest in the world. Unemployed women tend to have a higher level of education than men. The difference in the share of people with higher education in the composition of the economically active population - employed and unemployed - is significant. Consequently, education is an important factor in employment.

At the same time, education in Russia is not a factor in social protection against unemployment. Subsequently, one can expect an increase in the stability of the worker's position in production with an increase in his educational level. This trend can be noted in Western countries.

From the standpoint of the professional direction of the unemployed, it is necessary to study their age composition. Main part the unemployed in Russia are people of mature age. Age, perhaps, will be taken into account when determining the direct measures to assist the unemployed.

In a number of regions of the country, youth labor exchanges, as well as the Interregional Employment Center, are taken on a par with the State Employment Service of the Russian Federation for youth employment.

The service of temporary personnel, which has gained considerable popularity in the past few years, although it does not completely solve the problem, gives young people the opportunity to try their hand, gain some experience in a particular company. This refers to the hourly rate. The deadline for the implementation of an order for the provision of temporary personnel can be a matter of hours. During this time, the provider - a specialized recruiting agency - is obliged to provide the client with personnel for a short period of time.

In the West, the practice of attracting temporary personnel is legally established. There are clearly defined legislative provisions that designate and regulate the relationship between the parties when hiring temporary personnel.Therefore, in foreign companies the practice of hiring temporary personnel, the so-called contractors, is widely used. In some firms, especially in Japanese, temporary staff can be up to 90% of all company employees. In Russia to attract temporary personnel to the company legislative framework not yet, the temporary staffing service is just beginning to develop as a business practice. There are also no clear terms for this kind of phenomena. These issues are discussed in the State Duma by representatives of the AKPP - the Association of Personnel Recruitment Consultants, and on the pages of literature. But still, the market for temporary staff services is growing rapidly.

To predict employment and unemployment, data on the duration of unemployment is needed. Similar information is used in most countries of the world. A significant proportion of people who have been unemployed for less than 1 month means that unemployment does not lead to social explosions in society. Against, high percent persons with the status of unemployed for more than 1 year is one of the symptoms of chronic unemployment.

On the basis of the analyzed distribution of the unemployed, it is possible to approximately establish the average duration of unemployment as an arithmetic weighted average:

where Ti - time of absence of work in i-th group;

Ni - number of unemployed i- th group.

Since the time of absence of work is specified in intervals, the middle of the interval is used in the calculation, that is, 0.5; 2.0; 4.5; 7.5; 10.5 and 13.5 months. Since unequal time intervals are used as a weight for calculating the average duration of unemployment, it is more correct to use not the initial information on the number of unemployed in each group, but the relative distribution densities, i.e., the percentage of unemployed recalculated by groups for the same value of the unemployment time interval , for example for 1 month. It is possible to establish the comparative density of division, providing for 4 months, therefore, only the percentage of unemployed of the first and second groups will be recalculated. Nevertheless, due to the huge "weight" for the last group with an open interval, this calculation gives an inaccurate result.

If we use the initial information of the variation series as a "weight", then the average duration of unemployment will be equal to 9 months, which is slightly lower than its actual value of 9.7 months. The median duration of unemployment is 11.2 months, while the median is calculated using the formula:

where x0- the lower border of the median interval, i.e. the first interval with an accumulated frequency of 50% or more;

i - the value of the median interval;

NMe - the ordinal number of the median;

SMе-1 - cumulative frequency of the pre-median interval;

fMe - local frequency of the median interval.

Job search time is closely related to the age of the unemployed and varies significantly by gender. Longer average time spent looking for a job is seen among the unemployed in older age groups. The strength and tightness of this relationship also differ by gender.

The correlation coefficients indicate a rather close relationship, since their values ​​are close to 1 (especially for women). The coefficients of determination show the 89% dependence of the variation in the average period of job search for women on the change in age, while this indicator for men is lower - 75%. The regression coefficients also differ in sex: with an increase in age by 1 year for men, the average duration of unemployment increases by 0.064 months, i.e., by 1.9 days, for women - by 0.093 months, or 2.8 days.

The significance of these differences is confirmed by the value of the Fisher's F-criterion, which for all equations is higher than the table value. The F-criterion is calculated according to the formula:

where NS - number of age groups.

Finding the value and constructing the regression equation is carried out in accordance with the methods set forth in the theory of statistics.

Similarly, you can study the composition of the unemployed by the duration of receiving unemployment benefits.

Since 1994, statistical reports have provided data on the duration of unemployment among disabled people as one of the socially unprotected strata of the population that requires a kind of care from the state. The average stage of unemployment among people with disabilities is longer than in general for the entire aggregate of the unemployed. In order to provide people with disabilities with real assistance in finding a job in many countries (France, Germany), enterprises must provide a certain part of jobs to people with disabilities (job quotas) or deduct the corresponding amounts to the fund for helping people with disabilities. In Russia, enterprises with at least 50% of employees with disabilities have some tax benefits. When employing people with disabilities, it is necessary to take into account both their state of health and ITU labor recommendations. In addition, in the organization where the disabled person is sent, working conditions should be organized to facilitate his rehabilitation. In this case, the work shown to a disabled person for health reasons must be combined with measures of a therapeutic and restorative nature in order to achieve, in the initial account, his professional rehabilitation.

In Russia, previously available in the Federal Law "On social protection Disabled Persons in the Russian Federation ”, the rule on the employer's payment of a compulsory payment in case of non-fulfillment or inability to fulfill the quota has now been canceled. The payment of compulsory fees is not defined by the Employment Law. At the same time, in many constituent entities of the Russian Federation (for example, in the Krasnodar Territory, Bryansk, Arkhangelsk, Vladimir, Vologda, Irkutsk, Novgorod, Tambov, Tver, Chelyabinsk and other regions, the cities of St. the rule on mandatory payments in case of non-fulfillment or inability to fulfill the quota established by the organizations.

International law provides for assistance in the employment of persons with disabilities both in the open (free) labor market and in the closed one (in specialized organizations designated for persons with disabilities).

The ILO provides recommendations on the formation of employment opportunities for people with disabilities in the free labor market, including financial incentives for entrepreneurs to motivate their activities to organize vocational training and subsequent employment of people with disabilities, rational adjustment of workplaces, labor operations, tools, equipment and labor organization in order to facilitate such training and employment for people with disabilities; and the government's assistance in setting up specialized businesses for people with disabilities who have no real opportunity to get a job in non-specialized organizations.

The UN General Assembly in December 2006 adopted a comprehensive and unified Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Rights and Dignity of Persons with Disabilities, which has been open since March 30, 2007 for signature and approval (ratification) by the participating States and should become the first international human rights treaty in XXI century. According to this act, discrimination on the basis of disability means any distinction, exclusion or limitation on the basis of disability, the purpose or result of which is to diminish or deny the recognition, application or exercise, on an equal basis with others, of all human rights and fundamental freedoms in political, social, economic, cultural or any other another area.

By official information, the number of Russian disabled people exceeds 11 million people, and only 15% of disabled people of working age “are involved in professional activity". Based on the system of multidisciplinary rehabilitation of disabled people in the Federal Target Program "Social support for disabled people for 2006-2010." it is planned to slow down the process of disability of the population, to return to professional, social, everyday activities about 800 thousand disabled people, while during 2000-2005. 571.2 thousand people were rehabilitated. An increase in production facilities, strengthening the material and technical base and technical re-equipment, modernization of enterprises of the All-Russian Society of Disabled People, the All-Russian Society of the Deaf, the All-Russian Society of the Blind, the All-Russian Organization of War invalids in Afghanistan, the creation of at least 4,250 jobs at enterprises owned by the All-Russian organizations of disabled people at the expense of federal budget and extrabudgetary funds.