Is it worth selling the apartment now? When is the best time to sell an apartment - recommendations

If a Muscovite with an average income decides to take out a mortgage for a typical one-room apartment worth 6.7 million rubles, then, as RBC calculations have shown, in order to spend 38.1 thousand rubles on an apartment. monthly, he will have to do an initial fee 2.7 million rubles, or 40%, and subsequently repay the loan for 30 years. The overpayment at the average mortgage rate of 11.32% (according to the Central Bank for May 2017) in this case will amount to an astronomical 9.7 million rubles. If the borrower wants to shorten the term mortgage loan until the same 14-14.5 years, then with a contribution of 40% he will have to spend 47.5 thousand rubles to repay the loan. monthly. The amount of overpayment in this case will be less - about 4 million rubles.

In January 2015 the picture would have been different. Considering that the average one-room apartment, according to Inkom-Real Estate, then cost 7.5 million rubles, and the average mortgage rate was 14.16%, the borrower would not have been able to allocate only 50% of the average Moscow salary to repay the loan at that time (56,095 rubles), that is, 28 thousand rubles. monthly. According to RBC calculations, with a down payment of 40% monthly payment the mortgage would have “eaten up” almost the entire salary - 53 thousand rubles. The loan would have to be taken out for 30 years. If the borrower wanted to reduce the loan term to 14.5 years, the payment amount would completely exceed his salary, amounting to 61 thousand rubles.

Mortgage or savings

Experts interviewed by RBC agree that it is better to take out a mortgage only for short term, having previously accumulated maximum amount first installment.

When choosing between a mortgage and savings, you should start from the level own income, says the manager think tank“Indicators of the real estate market” Oleg Repchenko. With low earnings, a mortgage can become an unbearable burden: if the monthly payment exceeds 50% of the salary, then it is worth postponing the issue for a while until it accumulates a decent amount at least half the cost of housing. Then the monthly payments long term payments will be reduced to an acceptable 30% of salary, explains Repchenko.

Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

“You should take out a mortgage if you can pay it off within three to four years. The milestone of 10-20 years is too risky: you can lose your job, your ability to work, the economy can collapse,” explains financial advisor and founder of EasyFinance.ru Mikhail Popov. According to him, the down payment must be at least half the cost of housing. General Director of the company "Organization personal finance» Alena Nikitina, in turn, considers it advisable to take out a mortgage loan if there is at least 40% of the cost of the apartment - this will reduce both the monthly payment and the loan repayment period.

However, according to the National Bureau credit histories for the first quarter of 2017, the average term for which a mortgage is taken out in Moscow is 14.7 years. At the same time, the press services of banks - leaders in the mortgage lending market (according to the Central Bank) - Sberbank and VTB - told RBC that the average size mortgage loan this year amounted to 1.7 million rubles. the first and 2.3-2.5 million rubles. - the second one. Considering the average price studio apartment in Moscow 6.7 million rubles, such loan sizes indicate that the borrowers' down payment on average exceeds 50%.

However, if we assume that Muscovites more often buy two-room apartments on credit (the average price is 8.5 million rubles), then such down payment amounts will correspond to 20-27% of the cost of the apartment. If we're talking about O three-room apartments(14.1 million), then the average size of the down payment in Sberbank and VTB is completely reduced to 12-17%. Nevertheless, the head of the VTB mortgage sales directorate, Georgy Ter-Aristokesyants, claims that the average down payment for borrowers at his bank is about 35% of the cost of the apartment. Sberbank did not provide specific data on this indicator.

How to save for an apartment

Regardless of what Muscovites who want to buy an apartment choose - a mortgage loan or savings - they will find it useful financial instruments, such as deposits or bonds, say experts interviewed. In the first case, they will help the future home buyer save for a down payment, in the second, they will help raise money for the entire apartment. The choice of tools and the amount of monthly investment in them depend on the budget of each individual or family. “On average, a family of two working adults and one child tries to save from a third to half of their income,” a financial adviser and CEO"Organization of Finance" company Alena Nikitina.

The most conservative savings instrument is bank deposit, says independent financial advisor Sergei Akulov. When placing funds on deposit, you need to take into account that the rates on short-term deposits is now higher than long-term - this is due to banks’ expectations regarding a further decline key rate Central Bank, he reminds. In July, the top 15 banks in terms of the volume of funds raised were 8.6% per annum for three-month deposits and 8.2% for annual deposits. Separate credit organizations, not among the largest, offer annual deposits and 9-10.5%, but in this case it is worth remembering the risks associated with the possible revocation of the license by the Central Bank. “To take into account all the risks, it is better to open several deposits with different durations in different banks", says Akulov.

Mikhail Popov, in turn, advises taking a closer look at ruble bonds of large Russian banks. Their profitability is higher than the rates on deposits in the same financial institutions, while the risks of investing in them are comparable to deposits. For example, Sberbank bonds issued “BO-17” due in 2021 have a coupon of 10% and a yield of 9.57% per annum, while the rate on three-year deposits in this bank in July was 4.3%. For Alfa Bank's debt securities issued “BO-12” maturing in 2019, you can get a coupon of 10.65% and a yield of 10.14% per annum. For comparison: three-year deposits in this bank in July could be opened at a rate of 5.3%.

Individual investment accounts (IIA) will help maximize potential profits from purchasing bonds, adds independent financial advisor Elena Krasavina. This instrument provides tax preferences: the owner of an IIS can either apply for a refund of personal income tax (personal income tax, 13%), or not pay taxes on investment income three years after opening the account. Maximum size tax deduction according to IIS is 52 thousand rubles. Thus, if you buy bonds with a yield of 10% in the amount of 400 thousand rubles on an IIS, then, taking into account the deduction, you can get an income of about 23%, Krasavina sums up.

Photo: Alexander Shcherbak / TASS

Participants in the real estate market surveyed by RBC believe that the most favorable conditions for purchasing an apartment on the secondary market will develop later, in the next one and a half to two years. According to Mikhail Kulikov, housing prices will continue to decline during this period. Pavel Lutsenko, general director of the federal portal “World of Apartments,” agrees with this forecast. “By 2019, housing prices will be secondary market will drop by another 10-15% compared to the current ones,” he believes.

According to Oleg Repchenko, cheaper square meter will be facilitated by large-scale construction and commissioning of new housing in New Moscow and the Moscow region. Executive Director Foundation "Institute of Urban Economics" Tatyana Polidi adds that the appearance of a large number of new buildings after the completion of the renovation program may even collapse prices on the secondary market to record levels.

“After the renovation, there will be three times more new housing. This is a powerful competitor for secondary goods, which can lose a lot in price because of this,” says the expert.

Even taking into account the reduction in housing prices over the past two years, approximately 80% of properties on the secondary real estate market in Moscow are sold at significantly inflated prices, Mikhail Kulikov emphasizes. “This is typical behavior of people who expected to make a profit from the difference between the cost of an apartment at the construction stage and its price after the house is commissioned,” explains Konstantin Barsukov, general director of the Relight real estate agency.

He notes that only 20% of owners of overpriced apartments agree to reduce prices. IN medium term They will be joined by another 20-30% of home sellers who were previously not ready to accept discounts, Kulikov is convinced. Now 88% of transactions on the secondary market take place at a discount with an average discount of 9.1%. Property owners in the Western, Northwestern and Southwestern districts of Moscow most often agree to bargaining: there, over two years, the cost of housing has decreased more significantly than in other areas, adds Tatyana Polidi.

Also, mortgage conditions will improve in the next two years. Analytical Center of the Mortgage Agency housing lending(AHML), in his commentary for RBC, emphasized that he expects a further reduction in rates on housing loans. “The reduction in mortgage rates is now the main factor in the growth of population demand for housing. By the end of 2017, rates of 10% and below will become the new normal,” write AHML experts.

According to their forecast, by 2018 the mortgage lending market will grow to 2.5 trillion rubles. compared to RUB 1.5 trillion recorded in 2016. Oleg Repchenko agrees with this assessment of the market, noting that for now it’s worth waiting to apply for a mortgage - rates will be lower. In anticipation of this event, he advises future borrowers to focus on saving for a down payment.

In the article we will talk about the fact that real estate prices are constantly changing, and everyone is afraid of miscalculating the most profitable moment to sell.

Unfortunately, for several recent years, economic situation our country is not in the best condition. This is influenced by Western sanctions, inflation, falling oil prices, and many other factors. Along with the economic situation, the well-being of the population is deteriorating, therefore, the purchasing power of citizens has decreased significantly. In order to replenish your budget, make large purchase or pay off loans, citizens are increasingly deciding sell an apartment during the 2017 crisis in order to solve financial problems. What do experts think about real estate sales this year, and what are their recommendations for Russians?

Naturally, one should also take into account the instability of the real estate market, which is as dependent on the economic situation in the country as other sectors of the economy. If you remember, last year experts actively discussed the need to sell your home before 2017, because it was the year they presented as the least successful year for real estate transactions. Real estate prices in 2017 will change, and this is justified by a reduction in demand and a significant increase in the number of offers. In principle, a crisis is the least suitable period for concluding such transactions, especially considering economists’ forecasts about a drop in the value of real estate to the level of 2008.

The answer to the question is is it worth it, unequivocal - if possible, then it is better to hold off on selling. And it’s not just about the price, but also about the fact that it will be quite difficult to find a buyer. Nowadays, almost no one can afford to buy real estate in cash, except through a mortgage or an intermediary. It is much calmer for a family to postpone the purchase of an apartment to calmer times than to invest a large sum to buy now. Or will citizens take advantage of some social program, mortgage lending and other methods of acquiring real estate during a crisis.

According to experts, housing prices will fall by at least another seven percent compared to last year. Is it worth selling an apartment in 2017?, if she loses a significant part of her market value? Of course, the capital's developers simply will not be able to afford such a dramatic reduction in price, so the cost of new houses will probably not fall on such a scale. But as for apartments in old houses built in the middle of the last century, you can expect a noticeable drop in prices.

If we look at the issue from this side, then it is better for owners of such real estate to start selling as soon as possible, while the market is not yet crowded similar proposals. This will give many Russians the opportunity to purchase their coveted housing in the capital at an affordable price. Even if it is not a new, elite house, but rather a Stalinist or Khrushchev-era building, for many this will be the fulfillment of a cherished desire.

Experts believe that selling an apartment during the 2017 crisis- is not The best way receive additional financial support. In their opinion, even with the stabilization of oil prices, real estate market can only be half realized. But speaking of is it worth buying an apartment in 2017, expert assessments give a positive answer. After all, right now it is profitable to invest in purchasing housing at a low price; this will allow you to stably store your savings. It turns out that buying real estate is a profitable move for Russians, but selling it is not.

If citizens nevertheless decide on the need to sell their housing, then they should agree with the buyer on dollar and euro payments. The secondary apartment market is in great demand among residents of the country, so it will be easier to sell real estate in this sector in 2017. By the way, it was precisely this kind of housing, on the contrary, that became more expensive during the crisis - the cost increased by as much as twelve percent. Most citizens are afraid to sign an agreement with a developer in such an unstable time; he can freeze the construction process, and after unfreezing, demand triple the price per square meter.

According to realtors, if a person is already determined to buy an apartment, then he will carry out his plans, despite economic forces, political situation and other circumstances. If you decide sell an apartment in 2017, the main thing is not to rush. The sale must be carried out deliberately, otherwise, being afraid of low demand, you can agree to unfavorable conditions and low price, just not to miss the buyer. Over time, there will probably be a client who will accept the set price and will not try to bring it down, and then you should move on to concluding a deal.

But if you need money urgently and you need to sell your home as quickly as possible, what should you do? Here it is best to immediately take care of an alternative option, otherwise there is a risk of remaining on the street. Nowadays, currency stability is a rather unreliable concept, so if you decide sell an apartment in 2017, it is better to invest all the proceeds from the transaction in other real estate, and not in a bank account. Before starting the selling process, it is better to consult with realtors who can guide you regarding market conditions and trends.

• The most suitable season for selling an apartment in a metropolis is the autumn months. It is during this period that students come to the city, to whom parents are ready to provide financial assistance in purchasing your own home.
• It is least profitable to sell a home in winter. It is in winter real estate prices in 2017 have fallen sharply, and this is an annual trend.
• Once you are sure that you want to sell your living space, you need to think about its real value. Realtors who have already appraised many apartments and have experience in appraisals, or professional independent appraisers can help with this. Knowing clear data about the price of living space, it will be much easier for you to take a realistic look at things and analyze the extent to which you need to sell your home. It should be noted that quick sale the object will certainly entail a reduction in cost by fifteen percent, this necessary tool to combat market competition.
• Considering that real estate market Now it is replete with offers for sale; the earnings of realtors have decreased as much as the demand for housing. That is why, before turning to specialists for help when selling an apartment, prepare yourself for the fact that you will have to pay a considerable amount for the services. That is why many people are now trying to sell their home on their own using the Internet. social media, acquaintances and friends. There are a variety of free bulletin boards where you can post information about your apartment, the main thing is to present the information correctly, work on the selling text and describe the property as attractively as possible. You can also use a long-proven method - posting notices on porches, poles and special boards. Before showing the apartment to a potential buyer, you should clean it and hide personal belongings from visible places.
• Hone your skills in communicating with clients. Each of them is interested in lowering the price, so don’t be surprised and don’t be led when people deliberately find flaws in order to bargain. If you see that a person intends to purchase living space cheaper and is not ready to purchase for the established price, it is better to refuse such an offer. Just in case, you can leave the client's data. For example, it will not be possible to sell a home for a set price for a long time. Then it will be possible to re-negotiate the terms with this client.
• If you have free living space, but don’t want to sell it yet, you can try to make money using it. In our country there will always be citizens who are interested in renting an apartment, garage, house, and this real estate market much more flexible. By renting out your property, you can not only cover utility bills, but also receive a small, stable, monthly income. Finding a tenant is much easier than finding a buyer; after all, the cost of renting and buying varies greatly.

Demand residential real estate depends on a number of factors that need to be taken into account if you are wondering when is the best time to sell an apartment. Therefore, not only buyers are interested in the best time to purchase a home, but also sellers want to know when they can sell their property for its maximum value.

Let's analyze the relevance of selling residential real estate at different times of the year and try to find out what factors primarily influence the cost of an apartment.

Seasonality

According to real estate market experts, profitable offer can always be found, and if the buyer is really interested in purchasing real estate, no, even the most significant factors, will affect his interest. But, nevertheless, impartial statistics indicate that the time of year greatly influences consumer demand.

The demand for housing reaches its greatest decline in January: at this time, the number of offers on the real estate market significantly exceeds the number of buyers wishing to purchase an apartment. Why is this happening? This situation is quite logical: a good half of January falls on holidays and weekends. At this time, people go on vacation to foreign countries, they note New Year and Christmas with the family, and just relaxing and having fun. Banks are also closed - and since the lion's share of potential buyers use , they have to wait until the end of the weekend. Therefore, if you urgently need to sell an apartment in January, you will most likely have to make a significant discount on its price in order to attract at least any buyer. Hence the conclusion: it is extremely unprofitable to sell an apartment in January.

When is it better to sell an apartment - in spring or autumn? So, we excluded January as the least profitable time for selling a home. Definitely in the fall, because in May consumer demand also drops significantly. Most likely, this is due to the start of the summer holidays. Most of the potential buyers, according to statistics, are families with children who are concerned about other, more pressing problems in May: where to go on family vacation, how to prepare a child for the summer holidays, help cope with school and final exams, how to send your child to study in best higher educational institution. So it’s unlikely that you’ll be able to sell your apartment profitably on the eve of summer.

When is it better to sell an apartment - in summer or autumn? If you look at statistical data and listen to the opinions of experts, then consumer demand for housing reaches its peak between August and September. It is at this time that the number of people wishing to buy an apartment significantly exceeds the number of offers on the real estate market, which leads to growth.

Thus, selling an apartment at this time is most profitable for the seller: you can increase the price and not be afraid that your apartment will “stagnate” while waiting for a buyer.

The increase in demand in August-September is due to the fact that city residents, having had a good rest during the holiday season, are in a hurry to purchase new housing in order to have time to equip it before the onset of cold weather. Parents are also trying to buy an apartment for their children who have moved to another city to study.

So, we have considered the answer to the question: when is it better to sell an apartment, we have also determined the most profitable season for the seller. Now let's talk about other ways to increase the cost of housing.

How to sell an apartment for more money?

Regardless of whether you sell the apartment yourself or use the services of an intermediary - a real estate agency, it is worth thinking about some ways to put your home in order. For example, even minor financial investments redecorating the home for sale can significantly increase the cost of the apartment and attract more buyers interested in purchasing your property.

Legal training

Imagine that you are the buyer who wants to buy an apartment. With equal offers, which one will you choose - the apartment for which the documents are complete and ready, or the one that will have to “wait”, because the owners need to check out, obtain permission from the guardianship authorities, etc. Of course, a legally “ready” proposal looks more attractive.

So try:

• collect in advance all the documents necessary to complete the purchase and sale transaction;
• all persons residing and registered in it;
• stock up on a certificate from the guardianship authorities regarding consent to the transaction if minors are registered in the apartment;
• receive a technical passport.

Repair

If you want to find out how and when is the best time to sell an apartment in a new building, skip this section - most likely your home already looks quite attractive.

But sellers of secondary real estate should “spoil up” to add attractiveness to the apartment before showing it to potential buyers.

Small tricks

• if from the window of your apartment there is a good view: of a forest or a park, water bodies and historical monuments, insist on showing housing during daylight hours;
• but if the view from the window is unpresentable, cover the windows with curtains and show the apartment in the evenings;
• if the location of the house is such that the buyer will have to search for it for a long time, understanding the intricacies of streets and house numbers, offer to meet him at the bus stop;
• to get rid of the smell of pets, mustiness and dampness in the room, before the show, spray the air freshener and put open jar with coffee;
• if the smell cannot be removed, paint the walls - the “aroma” of paint does not cause negative emotions, but, on the contrary, creates the feeling of recent renovation, which has a positive effect on the decision of a potential buyer;
• It is better to show the apartment with furniture, but there should be a minimum amount of it so as not to create the impression of a cluttered space;
• put the pipes and plumbing in order - these are the ones that buyers check first;
• eliminate traces of leaks on ceilings and walls;
• It’s better to spend money and get the windows in perfect condition;
• if you don’t skimp, buy a couple of cans of paint and at least put the walls in order, replace the light bulbs and wash the railings.

Today I will answer a question that I am often asked in the comments: Is it worth buying an apartment now during a crisis? Everyone’s motives are different: some have been in need of their own home for a long time, some just want them to not depreciate in value, some want to purchase an investment asset. So, is it worth buying real estate now, and how to do it as profitably as possible? More on that later in the article.

I think everyone can clearly see the current state of the economy of Russia, Ukraine, and other neighboring countries. This condition can be described as serious, deep. Moreover, in some places it has quite likely already reached the bottom (for example, in Ukraine), and in others the bottom may still be ahead. Is it worth buying an apartment during a crisis? Let's figure it out.

Crisis periods in our countries are always accompanied by high level. Prices for everything, including real estate, in national currency are rising, and the purchasing power of the population is falling. As a result, the demand for apartments is falling.

On the other hand, more and more people are beginning to experience some financial difficulties, for example, they lose sources of income, cannot pay off debts, etc., and in order to somehow solve these problems, many are forced to sell their expensive assets, including real estate. As a result, the supply of secondary housing on the market is growing.

So, what we have: a fall in demand and an increase in supply for real estate during a crisis inevitably leads to a decrease in its value.

That is, the cost of apartments on the secondary market during crisis periods falls, which makes their purchase more profitable. Just understand correctly: this does not mean that it is lower in comparison with the pre-crisis price: it is lower in comparison with the price that could have been with current level inflation and devaluation.

To make it clear, I will explain with an example. Let’s say a certain apartment before the crisis cost 1 million. monetary units. There came a crisis, inflation, devaluation, and everything went up in price by an average of 3 times. And this apartment will rise in price not 3, but 2-2.5 times and will cost 2-2.5 million monetary units.

During a severe crisis, real estate becomes more expensive, but less so than other goods and services.

And the second important point: I am talking about the real cost for which a transaction with a real buyer can take place. That is, to exhibit starting price sellers, of course, will be higher (in our example, let’s say, 3 million monetary units), but at the same time they will be ready to give in a good price, seeing a real intention to buy.

The stronger the crisis, the more noticeable the price discount can be for a real buyer.

Well, best of all, the fall in real estate prices will be noticeable in foreign currency equivalent: the price in dollars can even fall by 2 or more times. So is it worth buying an apartment now at this price? Of course, this is very tempting.

In order to buy an apartment as profitably as possible during a crisis, savings for this purpose must be set aside in dollars or euros.

However, it is still important to determine whether the bottom of the crisis has already been reached, or whether it is still ahead. Because if financial crisis will worsen, the economy will continue to weaken, then real estate prices may fall even further. Because of this, buyers typically wait until the lowest point of the economic downturn to make a purchase at that point.

At the bottom of the crisis, as a rule, you can buy real estate at the best possible price.

Another important point: all of the above applies mainly only to apartments on the secondary market, put up for sale directly by the owners. Because developers have primary market there simply won’t be such opportunities to reduce prices, even if no one buys up their apartments: they depend to the maximum extent on the cost of building materials and construction work, which during the crisis will grow comparable to other goods and services. Of course, some price reduction may be observed here, but it will not be as significant as in the secondary market.

When thinking about whether it is worth buying an apartment now, it is better to pay attention to the secondary market: there the purchase will be more profitable.

It is worth mentioning the fact that not everyone has required amount to purchase real estate, which is why many people are considering obtaining. There are many peculiarities here. On the one hand, during a crisis, mortgages become less accessible: banks, even if they are ready to provide such loans, are more expensive, for shorter periods, and with more serious requirements for borrowers. On the other hand, such tightening of requirements also benefits the borrowers themselves: the bank will not give a loan without being sure that the borrower will repay it, which means there are risks of falling into debt trap, which people sometimes don’t think much about, below.

Of course, when deciding to take out a mortgage loan, the borrower, first of all, must be 100% sure that he will repay it. Even in a crisis, even if he is fired from his job (which is quite likely), etc. That is, he must have very reliable and stable sources of income, and the loan amount must be feasible, affordable, and in national currency in order to eliminate currency risks. You can read more about all this in a separate article:

The advantage is that when it starts the economic growth(and it will definitely begin - the bottom cannot be eternal), incomes will begin to grow, the price of the purchased apartment will begin to increase in price, but the interest and debt to the bank will remain the same. In this regard, buying an apartment on credit will be profitable.

When buying an apartment during a crisis, you can use a mortgage, but with extreme caution. Each case is very individual.

There seem to be enough arguments in favor of the purchase, but you should always consider the opposite side.

If you need an apartment for life, I think there’s no need to think twice: you still need this purchase, it’s vital for you. But if you want to buy an apartment in order to save your savings or acquire some kind of investment asset, it makes sense to think about it.

Firstly, if the crisis worsens, real estate may fall in price even more. Secondly, if you plan to rent it out, it’s not a fact that it will work out, especially at a good price, because people’s purchasing power is low. Thus, you can purchase an asset that will not generate any income, but will require additional expenses for utility bills, repairs, etc. And how long this period will last is difficult to predict.

In conclusion, I will make brief conclusions about whether it is worth buying real estate now, during a crisis.

1. During a crisis, you can buy an apartment at a very favorable price.
2. We are talking mainly about the secondary real estate market.
3. To buy an apartment as profitably as possible, you need to wait until the very bottom of the crisis.
4. Before the crisis, buying real estate “to save money” is unprofitable, because... in the future it will fall in price, it will be possible to buy it cheaper.
5. We are talking about the value of real estate in foreign currency. Savings for purchases must be kept in dollars and/or euros.
6. During a crisis, you can get a very good discount from the seller: the posted and real prices differ significantly - you need to bargain.
7. A mortgage loan during a crisis is both profitable and very risky.
8. A crisis is a good time to solve the housing problem.
9. During a crisis you need to be very careful.

Apply all this to your situation and draw a conclusion about whether it is worth buying an apartment now.

I wish you to make the right financial decisions. See you again on , see you in other publications on the site!

Photo: Valery Sharifulin/TASS

In early August, the official euro exchange rate reached its highest level in the last five months, approaching 69 rubles. The last time the euro rose above this level was in March 2015. The official dollar exchange rate in August also exceeded 60 rubles. (the dollar exchange rate as of August 5 was set by the Central Bank at 62.9 rubles).

The real estate market has not yet responded to the decline in exchange rates - usually the response lag is at least two months. The editors of RBC Real Estate asked experts and market participants what to do with real estate and when.

# 1. What will happen to housing prices due to the fall of the ruble?

#2. Is it profitable to sell an apartment now?

# 3. When to buy an apartment (for living and, conversely, for investment purposes)? And where is it more profitable to buy - on the secondary market (because there are discounts) or in a new building (because there is a subsidized mortgage)?

“Currently it’s possible to buy an apartment in Moscow 10-15% cheaper”

# 1. The weakening of the ruble is a key factor that will not allow scenarios about a fall in housing prices by 25-30% by the end of the year to come true. According to our estimates, a significant number of potential buyers are people who have real needs for a solution housing issues— is currently “sitting” in dollars, waiting for the exchange rate to rise. They want to sell the currency at its peak in order to enter the housing market with a good profit. There is a logic to this. As a rule, due to the difference in rates alone, such buyers have the opportunity to improve the quality of their housing: purchase a property of a higher class, with more rooms, a better location, etc.

We expect a relatively short-term surge in demand, which will support ruble prices for apartments. This already happened at the end of last year: then the devaluation of the Russian currency became a safety net for the ruble-denominated housing market of the mass segments.

# 2. About 80% of July sales on the Moscow secondary housing market were at a discount - this has not happened in ten years. Buyers expect discounts of 10-15% of the average market value of the property. Now the market is alive because a significant part of sellers accept these expectations and are fundamentally ready to bargain. The other part hopes for the fall - the beginning of the business season. I don’t think that autumn will turn out to be “golden” and we will see record jumps in demand and prices, because the fundamental reasons for the reduction in the number of buyers have not disappeared: people are saving, they are not confident in the stability of their financial situation. Another thing is that a certain pent-up demand has already formed, and the seasonal factor will also play a role. In addition, there is a tendency for the ruble to weaken. All of this should lead to a rebound in the housing market, although I would caution sellers against getting their expectations too high.

# 3. If a person has the need and opportunity to buy an apartment now, then he needs to do it. If you put off a trade in anticipation of a hypothetical profit, you may not have time to take advantage of the desired opportunities.

Now a situation has arisen where potential buyers are waiting for the “last carriage of the train”, hoping to jump on it when housing prices and mortgage rates will be extremely low. In fact, we see the same game on exchange rates - albeit not on foreign exchange rates, but with the same risks. Any revival in demand is fraught with a deterioration in market conditions for the buyer. First of all, this is expressed in the reduction of the most attractive offers and in the categoricalness of sellers when bargaining. Currently, it is possible to buy an apartment in Moscow 10-15% cheaper than a year ago - in my estimation, this is a significant argument for the buyer. Today there are a number of potential factors on the market that will not allow ruble prices to drop significantly lower.

“You shouldn’t buy, but look”

# 1. The dollar index is rapidly falling, the ruble index is marking time. Sellers are holding out until the fall, hoping for increased demand. We believe that there will be no activation, so in the fall we will see a decrease in ruble prices.

# 2. Yes. In the medium term, apartments will become cheaper.

# 3. You don't have to buy it, you have to look for it. You need to monitor the market, and when interesting offers appear good discounts make a deal right away. If sellers continue to maintain inadequate prices, then all that remains is to wait.

“The market is now at a price bottom.”

# 1. Due to the weakening of the ruble, prices are rising for everything from bread to cars. Only real estate is getting cheaper. The main problem is that the sharp weakening of the national currency forces even those buyers who have enough money to buy an apartment to take a wait-and-see approach. People are afraid to spend money because saving in foreign currency allows them to earn income without taking any action. At the same time, price tags on the primary market practically do not increase; on the secondary market, private sellers provide discounts.

In the primary market, the only way to give buyers a signal that real estate prices cannot remain at the same level indefinitely is to link to a conventional currency, the rate of which will be indexed in accordance with the Central Bank dollar exchange rate. Perhaps some developers in the elite and business class will try to link their price lists not to the dollar or euro, but to conventional units that will not be indicated in public sources.

# 2. For a seller on the secondary market, now is a good time to sell - if, of course, you can find a buyer for the apartment without a discount or with a small discount. This will not be easy: sellers who want to sell an apartment for foreign currency are ready to return to the secondary market in the hope of further weakening of the ruble.

# 3. For an apartment buyer, now is the time to demand tangible discounts and preferences. They can be obtained: The market is currently at a price bottom due to low demand and seasonal factors.

“There are now a lot of mortgaged apartments that are being sold at a large discount”

# 1. If we talk about secondary real estate, there will still be some correction in value - at least until the moment when the owners begin to remove properties from sale. We are already seeing this consequence of falling prices: owners are simply not ready to sell housing so cheaply.

# 2. It is better to postpone the sale at least until the end of autumn. There are very few buyers in the market right now. Those that exist are looking for the cheapest properties, but even having found such an apartment, buyers begin to bargain and demand discounts.

# 3. It is better to buy an apartment for living now: in the current conditions it is difficult to predict market behavior, there is a possibility that the choice of apartments will be very small, and the prices will not be attractive. It is better to buy an apartment for living on the secondary market. Now there are many mortgaged apartments that are sold at a large discount.

“There probably won’t be any global price changes until the end of summer.”

# 1. Prices on the real estate market have already become ruble prices: in the comfort and economy segments this happened a long time ago, in business class relatively recently. The trend will intensify: according to our forecasts, the share of objects denominated in foreign currency will continue to decline. The adjustment of the national currency exchange rate for owners of ruble savings did not play a special role, since prices for ruble objects still remain unchanged. At the same time, dollar-denominated objects have become less accessible to such buyers.

As for owners of dollar savings, they can profitably invest them in real estate due to the next fall of the ruble. They have the opportunity to purchase a dollar object at a large discount due to summer discounts or exchange money for national currency and buy an apartment on more favorable terms.

Of course, today it is better to purchase ruble-denominated objects. The issue with dollar properties still on the market is still open: sellers don't want to lose money, and buyers don't understand why they have to pay more. In such a situation, both buyers and sellers of dollar-denominated real estate will face difficult negotiations, as a result of which only discounts that are actually equal to the size of the fall of the ruble can lead to the completion of the transaction.

We do not expect global price changes until the end of summer. In September, we can predict an increase in ruble real estate prices. On the one hand, the holiday period will end, after which both sellers and buyers will return to the cities - the dynamic market of Moscow luxury real estate will react to this. On the other hand, developers will have to cover the costs associated with imported materials.

# 2. Selling an apartment is a long process; in the luxury market it sometimes takes up to a year. We believe that the property can be put up for sale now. With correct pricing, it will be possible to close the deal with the desired conditions in the fall, when the main buyers return from vacation.

# 3. It’s better to buy an apartment now - while summer discounts are in effect, and there is a lull in the market. Primary properties are the most profitable, since the majority of developers prefer ruble prices. In addition, developers have a sales plan that they need to fulfill: thanks to this, discounts on primary market properties can be pleasantly surprising. As for the secondary market, it will be possible to purchase an apartment profitably only from the seller who urgently needs money.

“The peak of activity will occur when the dollar exchange rate reaches 70 rubles.”

# 1. The situation will develop differently in different market segments. Prices for economy class apartments will increase slightly. The luxury and business housing market is expected to decline, largely due to the fact that prices here are still denominated in dollars. Buyers with foreign currency capital will begin to actively look for real estate, which previously cost $1 million, but has now fallen in price by half.

Those developers who managed to react to the jump in the exchange rate at the end of last year won over buyers by switching to rubles. Those who didn’t have time will soon try to take revenge on the wave of dollar strengthening. Those who have prices in foreign currency will convert them into rubles and fix them at an attractive rate for the buyer, thus adjusting prices.

# 2. Now good time for sales from the developers' point of view. Most likely, the funds invested in the projects were denominated in rubles - just like the loans taken out from banks. Demand for affordable products remains strong, so the developer has nothing to lose even when he boldly manages the supply price. In the secondary market, the only incentive for the seller is the need to sell their property.

# 3. You can highlight the most profitable niches. Buying real estate in dollars in general is not particularly profitable, unless you find a house that last year cost $1 million and is now offered for $500 thousand. Such an offer is found mainly in the primary business class market. According to our estimates, the peak of activity for dollar buyers will occur when the dollar exchange rate reaches 70 rubles.

For those who have savings in rubles, it is more profitable to make a purchase on the economy class market. Perhaps we can talk about investments there. If the dollar rises, developers will raise prices in response to demand. The demand is due to the fact that in the mass segment there are active sales. The interest of buyers is fueled by the prospect of getting a good area 5-10 km from Moscow at a very affordable price of 3-5 million rubles. Such products are quite liquid, especially considering that real estate prices will rise in proportion to the rising exchange rate.

Prepared by Ignat Bushukhin