Fiscal policy for the year briefly. Ministry of Finance: the decision to freeze pension savings for three years has been made

Vladimir Viktorovich KLIMANOV, Director of the Institute for Reforming Public Finance, Head of the Department of the RANEPA, Doctor of Economics

The beginning of a new financial year always arouses the desire to critically assess the outgoing year. 2017th for both federal and regional budgets turned out to be difficult, but still more positive than it could have been.

Return to a three-year budget

I remember that the federal budget for 2017 was taken literally on wheels. We, the members of the Public Council under the Ministry of Finance of Russia, then noted as a suggestion-comment that almost simultaneously to submit for consideration the drafts of the Basic Directions of the budget and tax policy for the next three years and the federal budget itself is wrong.

In many respects, difficulties with the development of new directions budgetary policy were then associated with the fact that the return to three-year budget planning itself seemed more important than others, which should help reduce the level of uncertainty and ensure greater predictability of macroeconomic and business conditions. After all, the federal budget for 2016, as well as the budgets of 67 constituent entities of the Federation, due to economic crisis was adopted in a one-year format, but in 2017 all regions (with the exception of Crimea and Sevastopol) returned to planning for a three-year period.

Presenting the draft federal budget for 2017, the Government of the Russian Federation declared that, given an oil price of $ 40 per barrel, the deficit would not exceed 3%, and in 2018 and 2019 it would amount to only 2 and 1% of GDP, respectively. The goal of the budgetary policy for 2017 was defined as ensuring the balanced development of the country and expanding the potential of the domestic economy. This should have happened if the target macroeconomic equilibrium, including due to the low susceptibility of the budget to fluctuations in oil prices and low inflation, and at the micro level, structural imbalances and obstacles to development associated with demographic challenges, competitiveness and efficiency of resource allocation would be eliminated.

The federal budget was adopted as complex but realistic. Therefore, amendments were made to it only twice, in July and November. The adjusted volumes of federal budget revenues should eventually amount to about 14.7 trillion rubles, or 16% Country GDP, and expenses - 16.7 trillion rubles, or 18.2% of GDP. That is, even in the current difficult circumstances, it was possible to keep the federal budget deficit at 2.2% of GDP (less than planned).

Implementation of state programs and project approach

Various budgetary tasks had to be solved, as before, through the instrument of state programs, linking strategic planning with budgetary planning. After the federal budget was first formed in 2016 not only in terms of state programs, but also in terms of subprograms and main activities, there was an expectation that in 2017 the budget would be completely programmatic. But no, in the programmatic context, less than 60% of expenditures were approved, since a huge (almost 3.5 trillion rubles) interbudgetary transfer to Pension Fund, and defense expenditures, which were planned as separate state programs, remained in the non-programmed part. Therefore, the task, set earlier as a target indicator for the Ministry of Finance of Russia, to bring the share of program expenditures to 70%, remained unfulfilled and will not be achieved even in 2018.

At the same time, when linking the budget to target program instruments public policy in 2017, a completely different challenge arose. Active integration into the system government controlled the project approach necessitated the presentation of the budget not only in programmatic, but also in the project context. In February 2017, the Prime Minister set such an operational task for the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia and the Ministry of Finance of Russia at the Sochi Investment Forum. Yes, the distribution of budget allocations for the priority programs and projects approved by the government has also begun to be implemented, but here the process has not yet been completed.

Legislative changes and innovations

In general, in 2017, budget legislation remained highly volatile. The Budget Code alone was amended and supplemented eight times. They also concerned the formation of a new fiscal rule associated with changes in macroeconomic conditions and the exhaustion of funds. Reserve fund(as a result, it was merged with the Foundation national welfare), and the appearance of public law companies in the budget legislation, and the strengthening of the positions of the Accounts Chamber in some issues, and purely technical adjustments that determine the implementation of budget commitments during the financial year.

Perhaps the biggest changes concerned inter-budgetary relations... One of the most significant innovations of 2017 in this matter was the signing of agreements between the Federation and the regions when providing not only inter-budgetary subsidies, but also subsidies (previously, such agreements were concluded only with highly subsidized regions). Even the very concept of subsidies in Article 6 Budget Code had to be adjusted to clarify that these uncolored transfers may have "conditions for their provision." As a result, the procedure, introduced only in 2017, has already changed several times. But much remains uncertain until now. First of all, how and to what extent it is possible and necessary to apply rather strict measures of budgetary coercion to the regions that have not fulfilled the conditions of these agreements. At the end of November, along with the adoption of the 2018 budget, further changes were adopted, including those related to the suspension of a number of provisions regarding the distribution of subsidies to regions, including the fact that the distribution of subsidies in the federal budget for the next three years is fixed for only one year.

It was also very important to tighten the procedure for distributing subsidies, which formally began to be implemented at the beginning of the financial year, without delays in this process, and the legislative consolidation of a number of requirements for the calculation of the subsidies themselves. For example, there was an obligation to take into account the level of the estimated budgetary provision of the regions in the method of distributing subsidies. Later, clarifications were made on what exactly should not be distributed between the regions until the beginning of February this year. But perhaps more important is something else - experts, and representatives of the authorities in recent years have repeatedly stated the need to consolidate various small subsidies into larger ones. In 2017, this partially happened, but in insignificant volumes. There are still many types of subsidies and other interbudgetary transfers, the administration of which sometimes “eats up” all the benefits of their targeted significance for the region.

Finally, the sonorous news of 2017 for many regions was information from the Presidium of the State Council, held in Ulyanovsk, where the President of the Russian Federation announced a program for restructuring the state debt of the regions. The rules for restructuring the obligations (debts) of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to the Federation on budget loans were approved at the end of September. In fact, the federal center, recognizing that many regions will not be able to independently cope with the repayment of their state debt, offered them a multi-year program of action, which also implies the improvement of the system. public finance, and joint actions to optimize expenditure commitments. As a result of tough, sometimes even painful measures, the state debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2017 did not increase, but even decreased slightly. By the beginning of December, it amounted to just over 2.1 trillion rubles, the debt municipalities- 340 billion rubles.

New directions of the three-year plan

As for the budgetary policy as a whole, in the spring of 2017 it was legally established that the main directions of the budgetary, tax and customs-tariff policy will henceforth be presented in one document, this was implemented already in the fall. The new main directions in this regard have become similar to a huge analytical document with a variety of terms and principles, which, as it seems to me, were not previously used at all in the vocabulary of financial authorities. An entire section of the focus areas for 2018–2020 is devoted to, for example, “ensuring interregional inclusiveness”. We learned that there is a “new design” for budget rules, and when working with companies with state participation there is an "imputed subsidy" that has never been accounted for anywhere before. In fact, the goal of the budgetary and tax policy for the next three years is again to ensure the balanced development of the country and expand the potential of the domestic economy.

The federal budget for 2018 itself was adopted with a deficit of 1.3% of GDP. Its revenues are expected to be 15.3 trillion and expenses - 16.5 trillion rubles. The situation with budgets in most regions will be more complicated, but the updated rules for the distribution of interbudgetary transfers, and the launch of the regional debt restructuring program, and the actual expected full-fledged recovery from the economic crisis give hope that the 2018 financial year will be more successful than the previous one.

Main directions of budgetary policy

When preparing the main directions of budgetary policy, the provisions of the President's Address were taken into account. Russian Federation The Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, as well as state programs of the city of Moscow (hereinafter - government programs).

The development of the Basic Directions of the Budgetary Policy was carried out taking into account the results of the implementation of the budgetary policy in the previous period.

The main objectives of the budgetary policy in 2017 and the planning period 2018-2019 are:

Ensuring the sustainability and stability of the budgetary system of the city of Moscow;

Unconditional fulfillment of existing and accepted obligations;

Social orientation of the budget;

Maintaining a high share of the development budget.

Improvement of interbudgetary relations with intracity municipalities in the city of Moscow;

Ensuring transparency and openness of the budget process.

In terms of budget revenues of the city of Moscow priority area will be the preservation of the positive dynamics of income and the increase in the revenue potential of the budget of the city of Moscow.

In the planning period, it is necessary to ensure a consistent increase in rates economic development, including by stimulating the investment and innovation activity of the subjects. This will be facilitated operating system tax preferences established for organizations making investments in priority economic activities for Moscow, including with respect to participants in regional investment projects and special investment contracts.

The development of the revenue potential of the budget of the city of Moscow will be facilitated by the expansion from 2016 of the scope of application of the patent taxation system through new types of activities and the differentiation of the size of potential annual income for individual entrepreneurs, taking into account decisions taken at the federal level in relation to individual entrepreneurs carrying out activities without involving employees("Self-employed").

Work will continue to improve the tax system of the city of Moscow in order to strengthen the role of regional and local taxes in the formation of the revenue side of the city budget.

As part of the reform of the taxation of the property of organizations, it is envisaged to further expand the list of immovable property subject to taxation based on cadastral value, as a result of the cancellation or reduction of the area criterion for certain types of economic activity, taking into account the types of permitted use of land on which the objects of taxation are located. At the same time, proceeding from the prevailing conditions in the commercial real estate market, the rate of growth of tax rates on property of organizations for the named objects has been reduced.

With regard to taxation of property of individuals, it is envisaged to equalize the level tax burden for taxpayers in respect of retail and office facilities in the city of Moscow included in the list approved by the Moscow Government decree on November 28, 2014 “On determining the list of immovable objects in respect of which the tax base is determined as their cadastral value "(hereinafter referred to as the List), as well as for garages, parking lots and apartments located in buildings included in the List.

As part of the deficit, it is envisaged to attract borrowed resources for domestic market in the amount of 25,699.5 million rubles. The actual amount of borrowings will be determined during the execution of the budget of the city of Moscow

In 2018 and 2019, borrowing deficit is not provided for as part of financing sources.

The budgetary policy in the field of interbudgetary relations with intracity municipalities in the city of Moscow in 2017 - 2019 will retain the directions implemented in previous years:

Balancing the budgets of intracity municipalities, including by providing interbudgetary transfers to local budgets, as well as stimulating an increase in the revenue side local budgets;

Financial support of the transferred state powers and co-financing of the powers of intracity municipalities.

The budgetary policy in the sphere of these interbudgetary relations will contribute to increasing financial independence, ensuring sustainable development intracity municipalities, and, accordingly, the socio-economic development of the city of Moscow, improving the living conditions of the population.

The implementation of the principle of openness and availability of information on the budget process will continue. The improvement, filling and development of the functionality of the portal of the Moscow Government "Open Budget of the City of Moscow" will continue.

Main directions of tax policy
for 2017 and planning period 2018 and 2019

The main directions of tax policy have been prepared in order to draw up a draft budget for the city of Moscow for the next financial year and a two-year planning period.

The main directions of tax policy are designed to identify development priorities tax legislation for a three-year period in order to determine the dominant tax conditions activities in various business sectors, as well as in the field of property taxation in the city of Moscow.

Tax policy in 2017-2019 will be based on the continuity of the basic principles and conditions of taxation laid down in previous years, as well as a reasonable distribution of the tax burden between sectors of the economy and categories of taxpayers.

At the same time, the main goals to be achieved by the tax policy will remain to ensure the sustainability of the Moscow city budget based on the stability of the tax base.

In this regard, the main directions of tax policy in 2017 and in the planning period of 2018 and 2019 are:

1. Creation of conditions for the development of small business.

The practice of using the patent taxation system in the city of Moscow has proven the popularity of this tax regime, as well as its effectiveness in terms of the growth of budget revenues and the simplicity of the tax administration procedure.

The increase in the budget of the city of Moscow in tax revenues paid when applying the patent taxation system, and the increase in the number of patents acquired by individual entrepreneurs indicate the correctness of the chosen tactics aimed at increasing the attractiveness of the patent taxation system for entrepreneurs and, ultimately, at eliminating the facts of their tax evasion.

The measures implemented in the city of Moscow to develop the patent taxation system in 2015 envisaged expanding the scope of its application through 15 new types of entrepreneurial activity and differentiating the amount of potential annual income for an individual entrepreneur.

Further improvement of the patent taxation system in 2017-2019 within the framework of the current federal legislation at the regional level implies the differentiation of the size of the potential annual income, taking into account fiscal opportunities different types business and the territorial conditions of its conduct in order to stimulate entrepreneurial activity and create the most favorable tax conditions for it.

Improving the patent taxation system in 2017-2019 will also require making decisions at the federal level aimed at increasing the demand for the patent taxation system among individual entrepreneurs operating without hiring employees (“self-employed”).

2. Sequential strengthening of the role property taxes in the formation of the revenue base of the budget of the city of Moscow.

The stability of the taxable base of property taxes in relation to fluctuations in the economic environment is an important factor in ensuring the stability of tax revenues to the budget of the city of Moscow, which creates the preconditions for the systematic improvement of the tax legislation of the city of Moscow in this area.

Since 2016, changes have been made to the legislation of the city of Moscow due to the actual conditions on the market commercial real estate.

In particular, the growth rate of the corporate property tax rate was reduced in order to provide the owners of Moscow real estate with the opportunity to adapt to economic realities.

So, in 2016, the rate for calculating the property tax of organizations for real estate objects based on their cadastral value was reduced from 1.5% to 1.3%, in 2017 - from 1.8% to 1.4%, in 2018 year - from 2.0% to 1.5%, which is significantly lower than the maximum possible rate of 2.0% provided for by federal legislation.

At the same time, a system of tax preferences has been built to protect socially significant sectors of the Moscow economy. Benefits have been introduced for agri-food clusters, organizations involved in providing additional measures of material support to pensioners, disabled people, elderly couples, etc., as well as for owners of real estate objects located in pedestrian zones, if such real estate objects are used to provide services to the population ...

The introduction of these changes made it possible to reduce the tax burden on legal business in the current economic situation and to provide stable conditions for organizations operating in the territory of the city of Moscow.

The improvement of property taxation in 2017 and subsequent years provides for the further expansion of the scope of application of the cadastral value of real estate objects in the taxation of the property of organizations.

Since 2017, taxation has been established based on the cadastral value of all administrative and business centers and shopping centers located on land plots, one of the types of permitted use of which provides for the placement of office buildings for business, administrative and commercial purposes, retail facilities, facilities Catering and (or) consumer services regardless of the area of ​​such objects.

In addition, the area criteria have been reduced (from 2000 sq. Meters to 1000 sq. Meters) for detached non-residential buildings (structures, structures) and premises in them that are actually used for business, administrative or commercial purposes, as well as for the purpose of placing retail facilities, catering facilities and (or) consumer services.

These measures will make it possible to continue the course towards an economically fair redistribution of the tax burden depending on the real value of taxable property, as well as ensuring budget stability and strengthening economic foundations the city of Moscow.

Since January 1, 2015, the taxation of property of individuals in the city of Moscow is also carried out on the basis of the cadastral value.
In order to prevent an increase in the tax burden for certain categories of citizens, its changes are monitored on an ongoing basis in order to develop measures to improve the system of taxation of property of individuals.

3. Improving the investment climate of the city of Moscow.

Since 2016, the legislation of the city of Moscow has provided for reduced rates of corporate income tax, corporate property tax and land tax for organizations investing in Moscow's priority economic activities. The developed system of tax preferences is aimed at supporting existing effective industrial enterprises, innovative companies, new investment projects in order to develop industrial potential, stimulate the development of high-tech industries, create high-paying jobs, and increase investment attractiveness the city of Moscow.

As part of further improvement of the investment climate, the process of obtaining special statuses will be monitored, ensuring the right to receive tax preferences, as well as the dynamics of the tax burden on companies implementing investment projects in priority areas for the city.

4. Improving the mechanism for levying trade tax.

The trade fee is a fixed obligatory payment for trade organizations, which depends on the area of ​​the trade facility, type of trade activity and location.

The purpose of its introduction is to equalize the level of the tax burden on comparable business entities and create conditions for fair competition in the field of trade. After the introduction of the trade levy on July 1, 2015, entrepreneurs who previously did not pay taxes or paid minimum amount taxes have now begun to pay the trade tax.

During 2015, the process of administering the trade tax, including the formation, processing and transfer tax authorities information about the objects of trade was implemented and demonstrated its effectiveness in practice.

The system of administration of the trade tax in Moscow is built taking into account the understanding of the needs and requirements of the business community. It includes a series of consistent incentives to pay - to avoid penalties. For this, a special interdepartmental commission has been created, to which entrepreneurs can apply in case of disagreement with their inclusion in the list of non-payers of the trade tax. Such a list is published on the Department's website economic policy and the development of the city of Moscow and is updated on a regular basis.

At the same time, amendments were made to the legislation of the city of Moscow, which provide for a wide range of benefits, including trade using vending machines, trade in post offices, trade at fairs, certain types distribution trade. In addition, cinemas, theaters, circuses, museums, planetariums, Print kiosks, as well as the accompanying rendering household services trading activities and trading activities on the territory of agri-food clusters.

Further work in the field of taxation of trade tax will be focused on improving the process of its administration. In addition, active explanatory work will continue with the business community about the need to submit notifications on trade fee, on the rules of payment, on the procedure for obtaining benefits.

5. Tax regulation labor activity of foreign citizens.

Since 2015, the city of Moscow has been setting the size of the regional coefficient that affects the value of a patent paid by foreign citizens in the form of fixed advance payments for personal income tax.

From January 1, 2016, the coefficient reflecting the regional characteristics of the labor market for 2016 and subsequent years has been set at 2.3118, which made it possible to bring the amount of tax paid by foreign citizens closer to the amount of personal income tax calculated at the rate of 13% of average wages in those sectors of the economy in which they are employed Foreign citizens... The cost of a patent in the city of Moscow (the amount of a fixed advance payment for personal income tax) is 4,200 rubles per month.

To substantiate the proposal on a possible change in the size of the regional coefficient for 2017, an analysis of the economy and labor market of the city of Moscow is currently being carried out.

Date of publication: 26.10.2016

Date of change: 26.10.2016

Attached file: pdf, 6.03 MB

MINISTRY OF FINANCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

PROTOCOL No. 11
an open meeting of the Public Council
under the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation

V.A. Mau, S.G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, A.N. Deryugin, S.M. Drobyshevsky, I.A. Sokolov, S.S. Shatalova:

Experts from the RANEPA, the E.T. Gaidar "and RFAT considered the draft main directions of budgetary and tax policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the ONBP and ONNP) and report the following.

Main directions of budgetary policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019

1. The section "Main results of the implementation of budgetary policy in 2015-2016" contains a description of what the external conditions were and what happened in the area related to budgetary policy in recent years. At the same time, there is no analysis of the extent to which all this is connected with the achievement of the previously set goals of budgetary policy (formulated in similar documents recent years), which of the previously declared it was possible, and what it was not possible to do and for what reason. As a result, it remains unclear whether this document is a guide to action, or is rather declarative.

2. Over the past years, there has been a lack of continuity in the goals and objectives of the DNBP. Taking into account the fact that the annual BNBP determine the main directions of budgetary policy for 3 years, that is, they apply to overlapping time intervals, it can be stated that despite the predominantly medium-term nature budget planning(with the exception of 2016), the budgetary policy priorities remained short-term and, moreover, unstable, which largely negates the advantages of adopting a budget for 3 years.

3. Deadline for submission of the BNBP at this year almost a week before the consideration of the draft federal budget itself at a meeting of the Government, to a large extent depreciates the significance of this document, turning it into an element explanatory note to the draft budget law.

4. The goals and objectives of the budget policy formulated in the document often go far beyond the competence of the budget policy itself, and therefore cannot be achieved solely through the use of its instruments.

5. The new budget rule raises certain questions, which does not contain any instructions regarding the filling and spending of the National Welfare Fund. It seems advisable to further consider the parameters of the budgetary rule, rather than its hasty approval by the Government within the framework of the BNBP.

6. The document does not at all touch upon the issue of managing the resources of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, which is directly related to ensuring fiscal sustainability and reducing dependence on the situation in the world commodity markets.

7. One of the objectives of the budgetary policy in the field of interbudgetary relations in the BNBP is "to promote the balance between the budgets of the constituent entities and local budgets." At the same time, the main share of the reduction in the total volume of revenues of the consolidated budgets of the regions from 11.6% of GDP in 2016 to 11.0% of GDP in 2019 will be due to a decrease in interbudgetary transfers from the federal budget (from 1.8% to 1.4% GDP for the same period). At the same time, this decrease is in no way connected with the reduction of delegated powers, but will affect financial security own regional and local powers. It is also worth noting that this reduction in transfers will be accompanied by a reduction in the revenue base of the regions due to the transfer of 1% of the income tax rate to the federal budget. In the absence of the planned change in the delineation of powers between the federation and the regions, which could lead to a reduction in the expenditure obligations of regional and local budgets, if necessary, the execution of the May presidential decrees, the main burden of which falls on the regions, the planned reduction in the real volume financial aid regional budgets are at odds with the solution of this problem.

8. In the area of ​​improving government programs, it is necessary to note the relevance of the proposed measures. At the same time, several fundamental issues remain without consideration, without the solution of which a qualitative change in efficiency and effectiveness is impossible. budget expenditures:

When declaring the need to transfer to the responsible executors of state programs more freedom of action in exchange for increasing their responsibility for achieving the result, state programs and accompanying documents they were overgrown with a large number of requirements for their detailing, which turned them into a heavyweight superstructure duplicating the functions of strategic documents. This deprived this tool of flexibility and the ability to keep pace with the budget process.

The high share of non-program expenditures (about 45% in 2016) and the absence of any prospects for full coverage of the federal budget by program-target principles will not allow taking advantage of their advantages, and will remain a significant brake on the way to increasing budget efficiency.

The main directions of the tax policy of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019

1. Like the DNBP, the DNBP is presented in a new format, and like the DNBP, the document does not contain an analysis of the extent to which the previously set goals of tax policy have been achieved. Moreover, in the presented form, it does not contain at all a description of previously implemented measures in this area. In order for the document to be not declarative, but effective, it seems appropriate to include in it an analysis of the achievements of the previously declared goals and objectives.

2. Among the proposed measures in the field of tax policy, we consider it necessary to support the following:

Introduction of income-added tax (AIT) in the oil industry for pilot fields (both new and already developed);

Continuation of the "tax maneuver", including the reduction (up to the cancellation in 2018-2020) of export duties on oil, an increase in the mineral extraction tax and a change in the scheme of excise taxes on oil products;

Small business support ( tax holidays, tax reduction on expenses for the purchase of cash registers, etc.);

Consideration of the issue of exemption from taxation coupon yield on outstanding bonds;

Inventory of non-tax payments and entering those of them that are, in fact, taxes, into the Tax Code;

Introduction of restrictions on the possibility of offsetting losses unprofitable companies as part of a consolidated group of taxpayers (CTG) against the profit of profitable participants;

Work on amending double taxation treaties, and starting in 2018, the start of an automatic exchange tax information with foreign tax authorities.

3. At the same time, the SNP contains a number of proposals that have not been widely discussed up to now, or in relation to them, sufficiently elaborated measures for implementation have not been presented:

In relation to income tax:

i. changing the procedure for the transfer of losses;

ii. a change in the proportion of the distribution of income tax in favor of the federal budget: 3% in the FB and 17% in the Republic of Belarus (instead of 2:18);

iii. provision of income tax incentives to companies that invest in infrastructure for Far East(until taxes pay off the investment).

The collection, starting from 2018 - 2019, in the Russian Federation of VAT on imported goods sold by foreign suppliers to Russian individuals using Internet sites (no real mechanism has been proposed that ensures the payment of tax and does not allow to bypass this rule).

Increase in excise taxes on non-alcoholic beer (with an alcohol content of less than 0.5%).

In view of the close relationship between the DNBP and the DNNP, we also propose to consider the issue of combining these documents in the future into single document"Main directions fiscal policy for the next financial year and planning period ”.

Taking into account the above, we consider it possible to agree on the submitted draft BNBP and BNPP, taking into account the existing comments.

ME AND. Kuzminov:
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Institute "Development Center", N. Akindinova, A. Chernyavsky

Comments on the Main Directions of Fiscal Policy for 2017-2019

1. Assessment of external conditions.

The Ministry of Finance's assessment of the external conditions for the implementation of budgetary policy in 2017-2019. (in terms of terms of trade) looks reasonable. A short investment cycle and high price elasticity of the supply of shale oil from the United States, along with other factors, will keep the oil price in the range of $ 40-50 per barrel in the coming years. (at constant 2016 prices).

2. Assessment of potential growth .

On page 23 of the draft DNBP, a rationale for the potential rate of economic growth in Russia, expected in the medium term. It is indicated that this assessment made on the basis of the Harrod-Domar approach (main works 1948, 1973), which assumes that the level of savings (and investment) is a key factor in economic growth. This approach is opposed by the specialists of the Ministry of Finance to the approach that goes back to the Solow model (1956), which, in addition to the dynamics of factors (labor and capital), explains economic growth by a change in total factor productivity, which combines the effects of changes in technology, saving resources, and the return on human capital. In calculating potential growth (panel regression on cross-country data), the Ministry of Finance specialists, along with the investment rate, include factors such as changes in the terms of trade, the ratio of budget expenditures to GDP, and the deviation of the GDP level at purchasing power parity from the average level for the sample.

It should be noted that this approach does not take into account the results of later classical studies of economic growth factors, for example, Barro (1991), Barro, Sala-y-Martin (2004), Mankiw, Romer and Vile (1992). According to the results of these studies, in addition to those taken into account by the specialists of the Ministry of Finance, among the key factors of economic growth, at a minimum, it is necessary to include indicators of the level of education (human capital), the openness of the economy, the development of state and public institutions, and sociocultural factors.

Like The Ministry of Finance's approach to determining the dynamics of potential growth, in our opinion, overestimates the importance of the investment rate for Russia in comparison with other factors. There is a characteristic difference between rapidly growing developing countries, which started with a low level of GDP per employed person and a high investment rate (China, Korea), and countries with a high as well as an average level of GDP per person employed (including Russia, Brazil, South Africa). who have more moderate pace growth. Actually, the data provided by the Ministry of Finance (graph on page 23) show that the absolute majority of countries with average annual growth rates below 2% have very different investment rates (from 18-19% to 26-27% of GDP), which does not allow us to count this factor is an unconditional engine of economic growth, at least for countries with medium and high level income.

Despite these remarks, the Ministry of Finance's estimate of the average annual GDP growth per person employed in the medium term at 1.5% seems quite realistic.

3. Federal budget revenues.

The document rightly notes that in conditions of low oil prices the key is the problem of replenishing budget revenues.

V medium term despite low forecasted oil prices, oil and gas revenues continue to provide a third of federal budget revenues. At the same time, the condition for the growth of these revenues in nominal terms, ensuring the budget balancing with stable oil prices and forecasted restrictions on the growth of production and physical volumes of oil and gas exports, becomes permanent nominal ruble depreciation .

Potentially, this situation creates risks of increasing tax burden in the next budget cycles.

As the main measure to mobilize revenues, the Ministry of Finance proposes to collect up to 50% of the net profit on state-owned shares of companies and the profit of FSUE. Without rejecting the idea itself, we consider it necessary to think over a number of other questions. State-owned companies have private owners who also claim dividends. It is necessary to assess how the withdrawal of half of the profits in each case will affect the attractiveness of the company for investors (especially taking into account the expected reduction in state participation) and, accordingly, on its development. In addition, the prospect of a 50% divestiture could encourage companies to cut profits by inflating costs. It follows from this, at least, that the state should create an effective system of control over the dynamics and cost structure of state-owned companies.

The proposal of the Ministry of Finance to strengthen the fight against "gray wages" in order to increase the collection of taxes and contributions during extrabudgetary funds with working in the shade and partial shade, of course, complies with the principle of fairness of taxation. However, it should be borne in mind that in the conditions of stagnation in the economy expected in the coming years, this will greatly complicate the survival of people, especially in the outback. We understand that it will not be possible to bring salaries out of the shadow quickly, and therefore we need a serious program for getting out of the shadows, containing conditions, incentives, control measures, stages, and not the hope to quickly and radically change the situation by the tax authorities and the police.

4. Federal budget expenditures and budget system.

The ONBP project assumes a reduction in the volume of expenditures of the budgetary system in 2017 to 35.6% of GDP against 37.3% of GDP in 2016 (36.5% of GDP, excluding the realized guarantees of the federal budget on loans to the defense industry complex). The only section in which growth is expected in relation to GDP (from 13.4% to 13.5%) is Social Policy; expenditures on the remaining sections in% of GDP either decrease or remain unchanged.

Table 1. Expenditures of the budgetary system by functional classification,% Of GDP.

* a surge in income National economy in 2014 was explained by a one-time transfer of the DIA OFZ for 1 trillion. rub. (1.3% of GDP)

** the surge in spending on national defense in 2016 was explained by the early implementation of guarantees issued by the federal budget for loans to defense industry enterprises in 2010-2011, which were repaid in 2017-2018 - about 0.8% of GDP.

Taking into account the cuts in 2016, the total level of spending on human capital by 2017 will be reduced by 0.5% of GDP and will continue to decline until 2019. (Figure 1). In the proposed budgetary structure, by 2019, the largest reductions in the costs of the economy (government investments and subsidies), as well as the costs of management and the power unit. Maintaining the proposed limitation of spending on the power bloc is, in principle, realizable, but it will require a lot of political will and avoidance of new rounds of geopolitical tension.

The increase in the share of expenditures on Social Policy is associated with the unresolved problem of reforming pension system and will require additional solutions in the coming years.

Figure 1. Consolidated structure of expenditures of the budgetary system,% of GDP

The expenditure policy of the federal budget assumes a continued reduction in its participation in financing health care and a minimum increase in spending on education (1.8% in 2017), Table 2. Thus, the prospects for financing human capital expenditures will be in 2017-2019. are even more strongly related to the possibilities of regional budgets and CHI systems... At the same time, the forecast of the Ministry of Finance assumes a further reduction in both revenues and expenditures of the regions (relative to GDP). The reduction will be associated with a decrease in transfers to regions in terms of “other transfers”. At the same time, the increase in subsidies is supposed to be financed through the "centralization" of 1% of the profit tax, that is, the income confiscated from the regions themselves.

Table 2. Dynamics of federal budget expenditures, billion rubles /% to prev. year

** the surge in spending on National Defense in 2016 was due to the early implementation of guarantees issued by the federal budget for loans to defense industry enterprises in 2010-2011, which were repaid in 2017-2018

5. Scarcity.

Starting from 2017, the Ministry of Finance plans to bring net borrowings in the domestic market to 1 trillion rubles in 2017-2019. rub. This is twice the net borrowing planned for 2016 and significantly exceeds the borrowings on the OFZ market over the past five years. In 2014, a sharp increase in domestic debt was associated with the release of OFZs to support banking system(OFZ in the amount of 1 trillion rubles were transferred to the DIA). In 2016, over eight months in the OFZ market, net borrowings amounted to 226 billion rubles. We know that the increase in spending on the “power block” in 2016 will be fully or partially financed through a special issue of OFZs. This means that the Ministry of Finance does not plan to take all 449 billion rubles from the market. specified in the DNBP. This all the more casts doubt on the plans to increase borrowing to 1 trillion in the next three years. rub. This strategy also has negative consequences. These include an increase in the cost of borrowing, interest expenses, an increase in the cost of borrowing in the corporate bond market. In all cases, such a decision comes with risks.

From the DNBP data in the section on financing the federal budget deficit, it follows that the Ministry of Finance plans to become a net recipient of budget loans from the regions from 2017. Such loans have been issued since 2008 and the actual balance of the provision and repayment of these loans was negative for the Ministry of Finance from 2008 to 2016. It should be borne in mind that a significant part of the recipients of budget loans are poor regions. It is unclear whether the aforementioned “maneuver” with subsidies will be enough to help them.

The main directions of budgetary policy for 2018 remain the priorities developed and adopted by the Government RF in 2016. The transition to a 3-year budget planning period is aimed at a consistent and coordinated restructuring of the Russian economy. The task is to achieve macroeconomic stability that does not depend on fluctuations in energy prices.

In 2016, we managed to cope with the consequences of a sharp drop in oil prices and economic sanctions. For this reason, the conditions of 2016 were taken as the basis for calculating the indicators. In addition, the budget rules, by which the standards are calculated. The main provisions of the budget rules:

• fixing the level of oil prices;
• determination of the maximum amount of expenses.

For the entire planned cycle until 2020, the price for Urals crude oil is set at $ 40 / barrel. It is assumed that the budget deficit will be reduced by 1% annually.

Key parameters for budget allocations:

• cost limit;
• borrowing from the Reserve Fund;
• transfers to the Reserve Fund;
• priority financing of state programs.

2017-2018 are a transitional period for an increase in the share of non-resource industries in the structure of income and a decrease in revenues from the oil sector.

Since the beginning of 2017, revenues from the sale of oil above the $ 40 mark have been sent to the Reserve Fund. The result was a smoothed correlation of the ruble exchange rate in response to fluctuations in the world oil price.

In 2017, a project management mechanism should be developed and tested on pilot projects (2018-2019). Concentration of federal budget expenditures in several areas, increased responsibility and control will avoid the dispersion of financial resources.

Forecast for 2018

For 2018, the main directions of budgetary policy remain to reduce inflation, interest rate credit rate, intensification of industrial production in the context of import substitution.

Economic forecasts assume the resumption of global economic growth, the preservation of financial and economic sanctions. Under these conditions, the projected GDP growth in 2018 is 1.5%.

The main indicators of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2018:

• the price of Urals crude oil is $ 40 per barrel;
• the average annual exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar is 68.7 rubles;
• GDP growth rate (in% to 2017) - 1.7%;
• inflation - 4%.

Structural problems of the economy persist for the entire planning period, including 2018, the main of which is the reduction of the Reserve Fund and the NWF, which are used to cover the budget deficit.

The demographic situation complicates the restructuring: an increase in the number of people of retirement age with a natural decline in the population. To ensure pension payments at the same level, there are two ways out: an increase in the tax burden or redistribution budget funds in favor of the FIU. Associated problems are the low retirement age, an ineffective retraining and retraining system, and the lack of conditions for increasing the mobility of labor.

Mobilization measures of budgetary policy

Since 2018, all state-owned companies (including Sberbank) are required to pay dividends at least 50% of net profit. This will increase revenues to the state budget, make it more attractive stock market for investors.

Administration (control and accounting) of taxes will be improved. Creation information bases taxpayers, goods will make fiscal instruments more flexible and efficient.

From July 1, all retail outlets must have cash registers connected to the Federal tax service in online mode.

From February 1, a system for tracking the movement of goods from the border to the final consumer in the territory of the EAEU countries is introduced with the subsequent connection of other importers.

To stimulate investment activity, the following are provided:

• tax incentives for enterprises creating infrastructure in the Far East;
• reduction of the tax burden ( tax deduction) for new and modernized enterprises.

At the same time, a moratorium is being established on the introduction of new benefits at the expense of local and regional budgets.

Budget allocations for 2018 are reduced by 2%, excluding mandatory ones: servicing the public debt, transfers, international obligations.

Budget policy until 2020

Budgetary policy for the period 2018-2020 aims to complete the structural transformation of the economy, making it independent from market fluctuations in energy prices, attractive to foreign and domestic investors, which will create conditions for sustainable growth.

Base volumes budget financing calculated based on the plan for 2017-2019. Taken as a basis, they will be indexed to the actual inflation rate in the corresponding period.

In 2017-2020 base price for Urals grade oil, it is assumed equal to $ 40 / barrel. The limit of budgetary expenditures by years is determined as the sum of oil and gas revenues, other revenues and the size of the state debt.

The main points of improving the efficiency of budgetary policy:

• an increase in the share of deductions from the net profit of state-owned enterprises up to 50%;
• equal, fair conditions for doing business;
• changes in the taxation system in the oil and gas sector (an increase in the tax on the extraction of minerals with a decrease in customs duties);
• "Freezing" of the nominal amount of expenditures for 2017-2019.

Income Federal budget during 2018-2020, they will decline due to the persistence of low oil prices, a decrease in production volumes, and depletion of reserves. The structure of the revenue side will change: the share of hydrocarbon exports will decrease, and revenues from other industries will increase.

The volume of non-oil and gas revenues (64%) is planned to be obtained through own production: VAT, excise taxes, income tax. V total amount NNGD, the percentage of these payments for 3 years will be 52%:

• VAT - 35%;
• excise taxes - 10%;
• income tax - 7%.

Stable inflation and prices will create the possibility of reducing the NBR% rate. In turn, this will expand the possibilities of long-term lending to producers of non-resource industries, and will become the basis for sustainable economic growth.

Regional and local budgets

The following tasks have been set for the budgets of the subjects:

• increase the income base;
• abolish benefits subsidized from the local budget;
• optimize costs.

The leveling of the income part will be carried out at the expense of transfers from the federal budget, the source of which will be the redistribution of part of the profit.

Federal benefits are limited in duration (1, 3, 5 years) and will be transferred at the end of their validity to the regional level.

To stimulate economic growth in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it is envisaged:

• maintaining the level of subsidies for 3 years at a high rate of tax growth;
• 20 billion rubles / year for the highest rates of tax growth.

In 2018-2020 a regulatory framework is being created entrepreneurial activity:

• electronic document management;
• common informational primary sources;
• uniform classifiers.

From 1.01. 2019 new tax rules should come into force:

• not increasing the tax burden on conscientious payers;
• an increase in the size of rental payments for all raw materials sectors with a simultaneous decrease in customs duties;
• legislative definition of the list of non-tax payments and the procedure for their collection.

The correctness of the strategic direction is evidenced by the data of statistical reporting for the first half of 2017. Compared to the corresponding period in 2016, GDP growth was 1.7%. The main growth factors are increased domestic demand and business activity.

Look video on the budget for the period 2018-2020: