The basis of the received data can be done. Based on the received data

1. Most students have a negative or indifferent attitude towards independent work.

2. The motive for doing independent work is mainly the opportunity to test your knowledge, and not the ability to replenish and deepen it, to show independence.

3. When performing independent work, students need more detailed instruction.

4. The most effective incentives for independent learning activities are an interesting task, a feasible task, and the exactingness of a teacher.

In order to identify the level of formation of knowledge, skills and abilities of students - the solution of the second of the tasks set by us, testing was carried out on the main issues of geography and a conversation with the teacher. Were received following results: Approximately 35% (7 people) have high level knowledge, skills, 35% (7 people) - medium and 29% (5 people) - low. For high school students of the second group, the results were distributed as follows: 41% (8 people) - high level, 35% (7 people) - medium, 24% (4 people) - low.

The characteristic features and peculiarities of the educational activity of high school students, the difficulties that arise in the performance of independent work, we identified using methods such as testing, observation.

So, the test results showed that 29% (5 students) act impulsively, are in a hurry, do not always notice mistakes, therefore, they require the attention of the teacher at the initial stage of work, 29% (5 students) act calmly and confidently, 42% (9 students ) - students whose orientation stage is delayed, indecision and timidity are noticeable. As for the emotional state, 53% (10 people) feel calm and 47% (9 people) feel anxious. Among the difficulties that students most often have, the following are of particular importance: “Most often I don’t know how to do the work” and “I can’t control the progress of my work.” Students in the second group experience similar difficulties in completing tasks as in the first group.

During the observation, it was found that many schoolchildren experience difficulties when working with the map, when comparing the available data, and when analyzing the results. In our opinion, this is due to insufficient preparation of schoolchildren for work, with a lack of understanding of the purpose of the work.

The fourth task was solved by us using the methodology "Diagnostics of the parameters of independent activity of schoolchildren". The following personality traits were clarified and evaluated: academic performance, motivation, activity, organization, responsibility, independence. The teacher assessed the parameters of independent activity of students and self-assessment by students of the parameters of their activity. Comparing the results obtained, we came to the following conclusions: such qualities of independent activity as responsibility, organization were most pronounced, activity and motivation were the least pronounced.

The diagnostic results were correlated by us with the selected criteria and levels of development of independence. As a result, we found that 20% (4 people) of the first group have a high level of development of independence (intensively creative), 33% (7 people) have an average level (active-search) and 47% (8 people) have a low level (imitative -passive). As for the second group, here 22% (5 people) have a high level of development of independence, 33% (6 people) have an average level, and 45% (8 people) have a low level.

First group Second group

Thus, it was found that in most schoolchildren independence as a quality of personality is not sufficiently developed, which is due to the lack of positive motivation to perform independent work, with poor implementation of the approach according to which independence can be effectively developed in practical classes. It has been established that insufficient attention is paid to the problem of developing the independence of students in practical classes in geography, there is no consideration of the organizational and content aspects of the development of independence. According to the structure of independence (motive - skills - will), one can note the insufficient development of one or more of its components in students.

Based on the data obtained, we called the first group experimental, and the second - control.

3.2. Approbation of the methodology for conducting practical work in a geography lesson in order to develop students' independence

At this stage of experimental work, the goal was to develop the independence of schoolchildren in the process of conducting practical classes in geography on the basis of the implementation of our proposed model for the development of independence. In this regard, we defined the tasks of the formative stage as follows:

1. To form a positive motivation for students to work independently.

2. To improve the knowledge, skills and abilities of students in the process of conducting practical classes in geography.

3. Stimulate the independent activity of students, aimed at overcoming the difficulties that arise.

4. To improve the quality of independent activity in practical classes in geography.

As part of this stage of the work, practical classes in geography were held in the experimental group, organized according to the developed model.

1) preliminary preparation of students for practical training, contributing to the formation of the necessary knowledge, skills and abilities to perform this work;

3) in the process of preparing for practical classes and directly at them, students overcome some difficulties in terms of performing feasible tasks both independently and with the help of a teacher.

In the control group, classes were carried out in the usual way. In addition, the lesson, fully developed by us, was not carried out at all, there was practically no stage of preliminary preparation for classes.

Let us describe the methodology of one of the classes conducted in the experimental group using the example of the work “Population Density, Settlement and Urbanization”.

As a rule, when performing practical work, students act in pairs of permanent composition. In the classes we organized, some students worked in pairs, and some did the work individually. This was due to the fact that students have different levels of training, different levels of cognitive skills and abilities, different pace of work, psychological characteristics. That is, we carried out to some extent the individualization and differentiation of training. The purpose of such differentiation is to provide the most favorable conditions for the development in students of such a quality of personality as independence.

Based on the data obtained, conclusions can be drawn. The return on assets amounted to 4.15 rubles. This means that each ruble of the company's assets creates 4.15 rubles. from manufactured products. In turn, the capital intensity, equal to 393.8, indicates that in order to produce one product, it is necessary to use 393.8 units of our assets. The capital-labor ratio (361,680.11) shows how much of average annual cost per each worker. Turnover ratio working capital shows how many times a year working capital must turn around to produce the planned volume of production. In our case, the turnover ratio is 5. That is. in a year revolving funds must be collected at the enterprise 5 times. The duration of one revolution is 288 days, i.e. 12 months. Productivity in value terms is equal to 1502129.03 rubles. and she shows how much of the proceeds products sold per worker. Productivity in physical terms is equal to 581 pcs. shows how many products are produced for each worker.

SHORT-TERM PASSENGER FLOW FORECASTING

BASED ON STATISTICS OBTAINED

EMPIRICALLY

Nefedov V.V., Russkikh M.V.

Feature of private passenger traffic(PP) in a number of Russian cities

is the low level of their organization. It has to do with disordered

planning routes for passenger traffic vehicles mainly along those sections of the street-road network (UDN), where mass passenger flows are concentrated. In connection with an increase in the level of motorization and an increase in the mobility of the population against the background of insufficient rates of development of the UDS, there is an acute problem of optimizing the PP, aimed at dynamically adapting them to constantly changing conditions. Particular attention in this matter should be paid to forecasting passenger traffic by hours of the day and days of the week, as well as forecasting road conditions.

V this moment Most passenger carriers do not have reliable information about the passengers carried by hours of the day. This causes certain difficulties in planning the traffic schedule, because. it is not known how many buses may be needed for transportation. The solution to this problem lies in the short-term forecasting of passenger traffic, which will allow, with a high probability, to calculate the route congestion in the near future and, as a result, adjust the number of buses on the line.

There are various methods for automatically determining the number of passengers carried by an urban transport unit. Consider the most common of them.

1) The contact-turnstile method involves counting the transported passengers by installing special turnstiles in the passenger compartment of the bus.

It is possible to combine fare payment systems with them. The advantage of such a system is the high accuracy of the count. The disadvantages include the difficulty of filling the cabin, as the landing will be carried out through the front door.

2) A method for counting passengers using sensors made in the form of a step. They are installed at the entrance to the bus in the form of special plates that respond to pressure. If the bus has two steps, it is possible to install two sensors to count incoming and outgoing passengers. The disadvantage of such a system is the mechanical impact of passengers on the sensors, which leads to their rapid wear.

3) Passenger counting method using infrared sensors. They are active and passive. In practice, it is recommended to use devices that include both types of sensors. The counting accuracy varies from 70% to 95% depending on the choice of the manufacturer. It is possible to account for incoming and outgoing passengers.

4) A method for counting passengers using sensors that make it possible to obtain a 3D image of the space. The operating principle is

– – –

Analyzing the above methods of counting passenger traffic, we can conclude that infrared sensors are most suitable for the forecasting task, since they have an acceptable counting accuracy sufficient to estimate the volume of traffic, and are not subject to mechanical stress and have a fairly low price.

On the basis of the obtained statistical data, it is possible to judge the power, intensity of passenger traffic for individual parts of the route or in general along its length, the volume of traffic. Graphically, passenger flows are depicted in the form of diagrams (Fig. 1, 2, 3). where their values are plotted along the ordinate axis, and the time of day, days of the week, months of the year, the straightened length of the route, and the direction of movement are indicated along the abscissa.

– – –

Figure 3 - Plot of distribution of passenger traffic along the length of the route From the diagrams it can be seen that urban passenger traffic is characterized by sharp fluctuations in passenger traffic by hours of the day (they increase during the hours of travel to and from work and decrease in the morning, afternoon and evening "off-peak"

hours), as well as on the days of the week (passenger traffic increases on weekdays, and decreases on weekdays).

The development of an algorithm for a short-term forecast of passenger traffic is associated with taking into account many factors that are formed both under the influence of causal relationships and due to uncertainty. The latter complicate the task and require the use of functional and probabilistic methods in combination to obtain specific solutions. The task of short-term () forecasting is to determine the value of passenger traffic (), ..., if the values \u200b\u200bof () (), ..., () and the values \u200b\u200bof the factors that affect the forecast value of the flow at moments, ..., and at moments are known.

Let's represent these factors in the form of a matrix | |:

| | ||, | | where c is the -th factor that determines the amount of passenger traffic at the -th hour of that day -th month -th year. The values have the following meanings:

l - 1, 2, ..., 30, 31;

1, 2, …, 11, 12;

The composition of the initial factors includes:

reflects the hour of the day.

day type sign. For this factor, it was next system coding: 1 - post-holiday and post-holiday days, 2 - full working days of the week, 3 - weekends, 4 - Saturday, 5 - holidays, 6 - Sunday, 7 - pre-holiday days, 8 - pre-holiday days.

Sign of the month, encoded as follows: 1 - January, February, March, 2 April, May, 3 - September, October, 4 - November, December, 5 - June, 6 - July, 7 - August.

A sign of a decade within a month. Codes: 1 - days of the first decade, 2 - days of the second decade, 3 - days of the third decade.

A sign of novelty of information. Values are coded in such a way that they increase as they approach the forecast situation.

The average air temperature for a day that is 24 hours from the forecast day.

The same for a day separated by 48 hours.

average air temperature on the forecast day.

respectively, precipitation for a day that is 24 and 48 hours away from the forecast.

The amount of precipitation in centimeters for the forecast day.

cloudiness index for the considered day in points.

If these situations refer to the same year, then the base value of the passenger flow is determined by the formula:

– – –

The use of the considered formula makes it possible to carry out an effective short-term forecast. However, the presence of random factors, such as emergencies, unpredictable changes in the nature of the population's activities, forecasting errors, a small number of factors taken into account in the calculations, lead to the need to take into account the random component.

Based on the statistical data and the forecast, taking into account all of the above factors for the bus route No. 94 of the city of Rostov-on-Don, the following passenger traffic diagram was obtained (Fig.

– – –

Figure 4 - Passenger traffic diagram

The required number of buses for each hour is determined according to the expression:

– – –

Figure 5 - Diagram of the release of buses per line by hour of the day

Thus, these methods for calculating the number of passengers carried by a unit of urban passenger transport will provide objective data on the volume of passenger traffic in transport. This makes it possible to judge the real workload of transport by passengers, and also, after the accumulation of statistics, to conduct an effective forecast of the demand for transportation. The availability of information about the filling of the cabin, along with the current location of the transport on the route, will radically change the approach to dispatch control, moving from regulating the interval at the final stop to dynamically changing the schedule in case of abnormal changes in road conditions and transportation demand.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Automation and telemechanics. 2003, no. 11. S. 3-47.

2. N. V. Pavdin and V. Ya. Forecasting passenger flows (methodology,

Based on the data obtained, it can be concluded that the balance sheet of the enterprise is not liquid. In 2010 and 2009, only the third inequality is fulfilled, while in 2008 the first and third. The liquidity of the balance sheet is defined as the degree of coverage of the obligations of the enterprise by its assets, the period of transformation of which into monetary form corresponds to the maturity of the obligations. In fact, the enterprise is insolvent in the short term.

Short-term liabilities cannot be repaid. As you can see, the organization will not be able to pay for its most urgent obligations using the most liquid assets and, if necessary, will have to use other types of assets or borrowed funds. The lack of funds in the first and second groups of assets is compensated by their excess in the third and fourth categories. But in an actual payment situation, less liquid assets cannot replace more liquid ones.

In the reporting year, the company's balance sheet is also illiquid. It is necessary to take a number of measures to strengthen financial condition enterprise and improve its solvency.

But this situation is typical for most enterprises and actually means nothing. To clarify the situation with solvency, special coefficients are calculated, which are then compared with the established normative values and considered in dynamics to establish patterns of development. The calculation and analysis of these indicators is presented in Table 11.

Table 11 - Relative indicators solvency of MU BGPATP for 2008-2010.

Indicators					deviation 2010 to 2008
Coefficient absolute liquidity
Quick liquidity ratio
Current liquidity ratio

The dynamics of the company's solvency ratios reveals a downward trend in liquidity throughout the entire period of the study.

Only the value of the absolute liquidity ratio in 2008 corresponds to the normative value - 0.56. Absolute liquidity ratio is the most stringent measure of solvency. Its value in the reporting year is extremely small - 0.01, which is 0.55 less than in 2008.

The urgent or quick liquidity ratio does not correspond to the recommended value throughout the entire period of the study, while constantly decreasing. The value of this indicator in 2010 is 0.04, which is 0.54 less than the same value in 2008.

The current liquidity ratio is a general indicator of the company's solvency, it is most interesting to potential investors and creditors. The value of the current liquidity ratio does not correspond to the recommended one and shows a downward trend in comparison with 2008, however, in 2010 the value of the indicator is slightly higher than in 2008 - by 0.02.

Let's estimate financial stability companies, calculating the sufficiency working capital to finance the company's inventory and costs.

Based on the data in Table 12, it can be seen that the enterprise MU BGPATP is in a difficult financial position. Throughout the entire period of the study, there is a shortage of own working capital (SOS) at the enterprise. The company practically does not use long-term lending to form working capital. As can be seen from the table, to raise funds in large volumes, short-term loans and loans.

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The basis of the received data can be done. Based on the received data

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SHORT-TERM PASSENGER FLOW FORECASTING

BASED ON STATISTICS OBTAINED

EMPIRICALLY

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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