Alternative rate of return. Accounting for inflation in valuation calculations

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Live in modern world constantly subjects a person to all sorts of tests, including financial ones. Not every person can say with confidence that he is financially secure, because most people, as a rule, have only one source of income - money received for the work they do. And it doesn’t matter whether it’s a hired job or your own business, the important thing is that there is only one source of income. But what to do if suddenly for some reason this source stops bringing in money? It is for this reason that some people think about additional sources of income. And for those who don’t think twice, we strongly recommend doing this, because... in the future, and even in the present, this can serve as an excellent service. Below we will look at several options for alternative sources of financial inflow and some of their nuances.

In general, sources of income can be divided into active and passive. Active ones are those in which, in order to make a profit, we are directly involved and make efforts to generate money. Passive are those in which a person makes practically no effort to make a profit and his investments (time, effort, money) work for him. Let's figure out what active or passive source of income can become an additional source?

Active additional sources of income

In fact, a situation where there may be a need for additional finance, or simply not enough money earned at the main place of work, can arise for anyone. You can, of course, try to get a promotion in your career, increase your pay, or look for a higher-paying job, but it’s not a fact that you will succeed. You can try to find a second job, but where will you find the time and energy for it if you’re already busy? full program? But there is a way out: you need to pay attention to your hidden resources, which in the everyday bustle we may simply not notice, which means we don’t use them. They can become the basis of an active additional source of income.

Knowledge

Think about what this moment you have knowledge, but which you do not use to create additional profit. What can you do? What can you teach? What can you tell us about or what can you advise on? What ideas did/do you have that you didn't pay enough attention to? Surely you will be able to find something interesting. In addition, if you wish, you can learn something new: take some courses, get a new specialty or a second or even third education, and then use the acquired knowledge to earn money in a new field.

Technical Resources

One of the most powerful technical resources today is in almost everyone’s home – a computer. It is usually purchased for studying, watching movies, listening to music and other entertainment, but it can also be used as a means of earning money. If you have access to the Internet and some free time, you can search online for ways to get additional income. The situation is similar with having a car - it can be used for various kinds of part-time work: as a taxi, for delivering sushi or pizza, etc. Make a list of what you have and think about how you can use it for profit.

Hobbies, hobbies, interests, talents

Every person has some distinctive feature: some write great, some are tech savvy, some are great with animals. What are you good at doing? Even the simplest skill in beautiful embroidery or knitting can become an additional source of income. And if you like it, that's even better! What are your hobbies? What are your interests? Could your area of ​​interest be the starting point for creating another source of income? Show your imagination, activate your creative potential and try to come up with some interesting ideas that you can implement and improve your financial condition.

Time

Time is the most valuable resource that a person has, but which is often completely wasted. Analyze what you spend your time on: how many hours a day do you spend on pointless activities? How much do you devote to finding a new way to earn money? You must learn with your time resource: engage in self-development and personal growth, spiritual practices, analysis of your knowledge, technical resources, skills, hobbies, hobbies and interests in order to learn how to turn them into money. This, of course, does not mean that you cannot relax and have fun. But if you have a need for additional funds, then “time for business, time for fun.”

So, we have dealt with active additional sources of income. The main direction of work is now clear and, if desired, you can find any other interesting active way of earning money. Let's move on to passive sources.

Passive additional sources of income

Oddly enough, the very concept passive income quite unusual for Russians, although in the West they have been familiar with it for a long time, and in some schools they even teach financial literacy. In our country, this topic has been studied very little. And this is mainly due to the stereotypes imposed and brought up in the last decades of the last century. In the post-Soviet space, the person who achieved everything he had through enormous efforts was considered successful. However, at all times, the most successful, wealthy and wealthy people have always been those with such qualities as mental acuity, prudence, and the ability to make a profit from their investments. But let’s leave these considerations for another time, and consider those sources of income that can be considered passive, as well as accessible to people with low and middle income levels.

Pension

A pension is a regular cash benefit that is paid to people who have reached retirement age, are disabled, or have lost their breadwinner. But, unfortunately, the size of the pension in our country, to put it mildly, leaves much to be desired. And many people never reach retirement age, and thousands of pensions go into the “bottomless abyss” of our state. Why not the families of those people who did not live to see retirement? Interest Ask. In general, no matter how funny it may sound, a pension is a source of additional passive income.

Bank account

Anyone can open a bank account and deposit money into it at interest. And this can already be considered a source of passive income. But here there are several points to consider. If the invested amount is small, then the bank’s interest rate, taking into account inflation, often only contributes to saving money and preserving it from depreciation, i.e. This cannot be called a source of passive income. But if the amount is large and the percentage of accruals exceeds the inflation index, then the capital will constantly grow - this is passive income. In short, in order to make a profit, only large sums should be deposited at interest.

Securities

Owning securities is very profitable, because... this allows you to receive a minimum of 10 to 30 percent profit per year. But it is recommended to deal with securities only with the help of an experienced specialist in this field. He will be able to offer several investment options that will be most optimal for you. The richest people in the world resort to working with securities, therefore, if there is an opportunity to start acting in this direction, then under no circumstances should you miss it.

Big business

When talking about a big business, it should be borne in mind that its creation requires a considerable investment of time, effort and finance. But the result is worth it. If the company “stands firmly on its feet” and is managed by competent people, then it may well become an excellent source of passive income and will even allow the person (or group of people) who organized it to move into. The owner must only monitor the organization’s work and have an action plan in case of force majeure.

Website on the Internet

If you approach the issue of creating a website seriously and work closely on its promotion, then after a while it will be able to bring substantial profits to its owner. Contextual advertising, affiliate programs and other methods of site monetization play a huge role here. The interesting thing is that a person can create a website both with the help of competent specialists (for a substantial fee, of course), and completely independently, having learned how to do this and studied all the intricacies of the issue.

Royalties

If you can write a good book that is relevant and in demand by readers, then for the rest of your life you will be able to receive royalties from the sales of your work. And this applies not only to books, but also to inventions, ideas, projects, websites and other creations, regardless of the focus of the activity. Just think how much money a man named Seth Wheeler made when he patented toilet paper in 1871?!

In conclusion, I just want to say that if you really want to create an additional source of income (and even more so, if there are several), then you will have to seriously think and reconsider many components of your life: habits, beliefs, personal and, of course, put in effort for this a lot of effort. And even if it is not easy, it is worth it. You just need to want it - everything is in your hands!

When assessing effectiveness investment projects theory, in some cases 1, recommends using WACC as a discount rate. At the same time, as a price equity It is proposed to use the profitability of alternative investments (projects). Alternative return (profitability) is a measure of lost profits, which, according to the concept of alternative costs based on the ideas of Friedrich von Wieser on the marginal utility of costs, are considered as expenses when evaluating options for investment projects proposed for implementation. At the same time, a wide range of authors understand alternative income as the profitability of projects that have low risk and a guaranteed minimum profitability. Examples are given - lease of land and buildings, foreign currency bonds, time deposits banks, government and corporate securities with low risk, etc.

Therefore, when evaluating two projects - analyzed A and alternative B, we must subtract the profitability of project B from the profitability of project A and compare the result obtained with the profitability of project B, but taking into account the risks.

This method allows us to make more intelligent decisions about the advisability of investing in new projects.

For example:

The profitability of project A is 50%, the risk is 50%.

The profitability of project B is 20%, the risk is 10%.

Let us subtract the profitability of project B from the profitability of project A (50% - 20% = 30%).

Now let’s compare the same indicators, but taking into account the project risks.

Profitability of project A = 30% * (1-0.5) = 15%.

The profitability of project B is 20% * (1-0.1) = 18%.

Thus, wanting to get an additional 15% return, we risk half of our capital invested in the project. At the same time, by implementing familiar and therefore low-risk projects, we guarantee ourselves an 18% return and, as a result, the preservation and increase of capital.

The approach to investment evaluation described above, justified by the theory of opportunity costs, is quite reasonable and is not rejected by practitioners.

But can alternative income be considered as capital raising costs when calculating WACC?

In our opinion no? Despite the fact that we subtracted the income of the alternative project B from the income of the evaluated project A, conditionally considering them as expenses of project A, they did not cease to be income.

The calculation discussed in table No. 1 only says that in order to fulfill your desire to receive a return of 15%, you need to ensure a return on assets of 11.5% or higher. We emphasize once again that a profitability of 15% is only your desire.

But is this your cost of equity? Maybe they make up only 5% of invested capital and why wouldn't you be happy with a 10 percent return like Molly's?

In this case, the weighted cost of capital will not be 11.5%, but 9%, but there is income! There is profit! (9% minus 5%).

Reduce your expenses on capital, get more of it from circulation and get rich!

So how can you reduce the cost of raising equity capital to zero? Can. And this is not sedition, if you look closely at what we mean by the term “expenses”.

Expenses are not the amounts transferred by you for the goods, not the money paid to employees and not the cost of raw materials included in the costs of production and sold products. All this does not take away your property, your benefits.

Expenses are a decrease in assets or an increase in liabilities.

The owner, when using his own capital, will incur expenses in two cases:

1. Payments from profits, for example: dividends, bonuses and other payments, such as taxes, etc.

2. If part or all of the equity capital is not involved in business turnover.

Let's look at this in more detail.

Let us turn to the mentioned concept of opportunity costs and the theory of the relationship between the cost of money and time.

The concept of opportunity costs suggests using as their income the income from investments in a business that has the least risk and guaranteed profitability. If we continue this logic, it becomes clear that the least risk will occur if we refuse to invest in this business. At the same time, the income will be the least. They will both be zero.

Of course, financial analysts, and simply sensible people, will immediately say that both real and relative loss of assets due to inactivity will be inevitable.

Real costs are caused by the need to maintain the quantitative and qualitative safety of capital.

Relative costs are associated with changes in the market price of assets and changes in the welfare of the company under study, relative to the welfare of other entrepreneurs.

If your capital does not work, but your neighbor’s capital functions properly and brings him income, then the greater this income, the richer the neighbor becomes relative to you. Together with your neighbor, you will receive a certain average profitability for your business, which is precisely a measure of the growth of your neighbor’s wealth and your relative losses. In other words, if you do not provide returns above the market average, then your share in the total volume operating in the capital market has decreased. This means you have incurred expenses.

What will be their size?

The calculation can be done like this.

The cost of capital is equal to the difference between the return on assets in the industry under study and the return on assets of the company.

For example. Return on assets of the manufacturing industry is 8%. Your company's return on assets is 5%. This means you have lost 3%. These are your relative expenses. This is the relative price of your capital.

Since industry profitability indicators do not fluctuate significantly, it is quite possible to predict their values ​​using the usual trend.

What does this give us? In our opinion, the following:

1. Great opportunities standardization of calculations of the price of equity capital than the use of alternative returns, since there are quite a lot of alternative options for investing capital in a business that has low risk and guaranteed profitability.

2. The proposed approach limits liberties, and therefore, in our opinion, increases objectivity when comparing the effectiveness of various investment project options.

3. Perhaps this will reduce the mistrust of practitioners in the calculations of financial analysts. The simpler the better.

Let's go further. What happens if the company's return on assets is equal to the industry average? Will the price of equity become zero? Theoretically, yes, if there are no payments from profits. Our well-being relative to the state of the business community will not change. In practice this is unattainable. Since, there are necessarily payments and obligations arise that reduce the amount of our own capital and, accordingly, reduce the assets belonging to us. Even if the enterprise does not operate, it must pay property taxes, etc.

Therefore, the price of a company’s equity capital should consist not only of the price calculated based on the average industry return on assets, but also the price determined on the basis of dividend payments and other payments from profits, possibly including payments to the budget and off-budget funds. It may be appropriate to take into account the costs associated with the stakeholder business model when calculating WACC.

When calculating WACC, factors that reduce the price of capital sources should also be taken into account. For example, at the cost of such a source of financing as accounts payable, is the amount of fines paid by the company for late payments to suppliers. But doesn’t the company receive the same penalty payments from customers for late payments, accounts receivable?

What does the WACC indicator ultimately reflect? In our opinion, he is a meter economic efficiency existing business or investment project.

A negative WACC value indicates the effective work of the organization's management, since the organization receives economic profit. The same applies to investment projects.

The WACC value within the range of changes in return on assets from zero to industry average values ​​indicates that the business is profitable, but not competitive.

The WACC indicator, the value of which exceeds the industry average return on assets, indicates an unprofitable business.

So, end of the WACC speculation? No. Corporate mysteries lie ahead.

“If you don’t deceive, you won’t sell, so why frown?
Day and night - a day away. Next, how will it turn out"

d = ,(1)
Where d- profitability of operations, %;

D- income received by the owner of the financial instrument;

Z - the cost of its acquisition;

 - coefficient recalculating profitability by specified interval time.

Coefficient  has the form

 =  T /t (2)

where  T- time interval for which profitability is recalculated;

t- the time period during which the income was received D.

Thus, if an investor received income in, say, 9 days ( t= 9), then when calculating profitability for the financial year ( T= 360) the numerical value of the coefficient t will be equal to:

 = 360: 9 = 40

It should be noted that usually the profitability of transactions with financial instruments is determined based on one financial year, which has 360 days. However, when considering transactions with government securities (in accordance with the letter of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 09/05/95 No. 28-7-3/A-693) T is taken equal to 365 days.

To illustrate the calculation of the profitability of a financial instrument, consider the following model case. Having carried out a purchase and sale operation with a financial instrument, the broker received an income equal to D= 1,000,000 rubles, and the market value of the nth financial instrument Z= 10,000,000 rub. The profitability of this operation in annual terms:
d ==
=
= 400%.

Income. The next important indicator used in calculating the efficiency of operations with securities is the income received from these operations. It is calculated by the formula

D= d +  , (3)

Where d- discount part of income;

 is the percentage of income.

Discount income. The formula for calculating discount income is

d = (R etc - R pok), (4)

Where R pr - the selling price of the financial instrument with which transactions are carried out;

R pok - purchase price of a financial instrument (note that in the expression for profitability R pok = Z).

Interest income. Interest income is defined as income received from interest charges on a given financial instrument. In this case, it is necessary to consider two cases. First when interest income is calculated at a simple interest rate, and the second, when interest income is calculated at a compound interest rate.

The scheme for calculating income at a simple interest rate. The first case is typical when calculating dividends on preferred shares, interest on bonds and simple interest on bank deposits. In this case, an investment of X 0 rub. after a period of time equal to P interest payments will result in the investor owning an amount equal to

X n-X 0 (1 +  n). (5)

Thus, interest income in the case of a simple interest calculation scheme will be equal to:

 = X n - X 0 = X 0 (1 +  n) - X 0 = X 0  n,(6)

where X n - the amount generated by the investor through P interest payments;

X 0 - initial investment in the financial instrument in question;

 - interest rate;

P- number of interest payments.

Scheme for calculating income at a compound interest rate. The second case is typical when calculating interest on bank deposits according to the scheme compound interest. This payment scheme involves the accrual of interest on both the principal amount and previous interest payments.

Investment of X 0 rub. after the first interest payment they will give an amount equal to

X 1 -X 0 (1 + ).

On the second interest payment, interest will accrue on the amount X 1 . Thus, after the second interest payment, the investor will have an amount equal to

X 2 – X 1 (1 + ) - X 0 (1 + )(1 + ) = X 0 (1 + ) 2.

Therefore, after n- interest payment from the investor will be an amount equal to

X n = X 0 (1 +) n . (7)

Therefore, interest income in case of accrual of interest according to the compound interest scheme will be equal to

 = X n -X 0 = X 0 (1+ ) n – X 0 . (8)

Income subject to taxation. The formula for calculating the income received by a legal entity when performing transactions with corporate securities has the form

D = d(1-  d) + (1- p), (9)

where  d is the tax rate on the discount part of income;

 n - tax rate on the interest part of income.

Discount income legal entities (d) subject to taxation in general procedure. Tax is levied at the source of income. Interest income () is taxed at the source of this income.

The main types of tasks encountered when carrying out transactions on the stock market

• 
  What is the yield of a financial instrument or which financial instrument has a higher yield?
• 
  What is the market value of securities?
• 
  What is the total income that the security brings (interest or discount)?
• 
  What is the period of circulation of securities that are issued at a given discount in order to obtain an acceptable yield? and so on.

However, the bulk of other, much more complex problems, with all the diversity of their formulations, surprisingly, have a common approach to solution. It lies in the fact that with a normally functioning stock market, the profitability of various financial instruments is approximately equal. This principle can be written as follows:

d 1 d 2 . (10)

Using the principle of equality of returns, you can create an equation to solve the problem, revealing the formulas for profitability (1) and reducing the factors. In this case, equation (10) takes the form

=
(11)
In more general view, using expressions (2)-(4), (9), formula (11) can be transformed into the equation:


. (12)

By transforming this expression into an equation to calculate the unknown unknown in the problem, you can obtain the final result.

Algorithms for solving problems

1) the type of financial instrument for which the profitability needs to be calculated is determined. As a rule, the type of financial instrument with which transactions are made is known in advance. This information is necessary to determine the nature of the income that should be expected from this security (discount or interest), and the nature of the taxation of the income received (rate and availability of benefits);

2) those variables in formula (1) that need to be found are clarified;

3) if the result is an expression that allows you to create an equation and solve it with respect to the unknown unknown, then this practically ends the procedure for solving the problem;

4) if it was not possible to create an equation for the unknown unknown, then formula (1), sequentially using expressions (2)-(4), (6), (8), (9), leads to a form that allows you to calculate the unknown quantity .

The above algorithm can be represented by a diagram (Fig. 10.1).

Profitability comparison problems. When solving problems of this type formula (11) is used as the initial one. The technique for solving problems of this type is as follows:

Rice. 10.1. Algorithm for solving the problem of calculating profitability
1) financial instruments are determined, the profitability of which is compared with each other. This means that in a normally functioning market, the profitability of various financial instruments is approximately equal to each other;

• 
  the types of financial instruments for which profitability needs to be calculated are determined;
• 
  known and unknown variables in formula (11) are clarified;

• 
  if the result is an expression that allows you to create an equation and solve it relative to the unknown unknown, then the equation is solved and the procedure for solving the problem ends here;

• 
  if it was not possible to create an equation for the unknown unknown, then formula (11), sequentially using expressions (2) - (4), (6), (8), (9), leads to a form that allows you to calculate the unknown quantity.

Let's consider several typical computational problems that can be solved using the proposed methodology.

Example 1. The certificate of deposit was purchased 6 months before its maturity date at a price of RUB 10,000. and sold 2 months before the maturity date at a price of RUB 14,000. Determine (at a simple interest rate excluding taxes) the annualized profitability of this operation.

Step 1. The type of security is specified explicitly: certificate of deposit. This security issued by the bank can bring its owner both interest and discount income.

Step 2.

d =
.

However, we have not yet received an equation for solving the problem, since in the problem statement there is only Z– the purchase price of this financial instrument, equal to 10,000 rubles.

Step 3. To solve the problem, we use formula (2), in which  T= 12 months and  t= 6 – 2 = 4 months. Thus,  = 3. As a result, we obtain the expression

d =
.

Step 4. From formula (3), taking into account that  = 0, we obtain the expression

d =
.

Step 5. Using formula (4), taking into account that R pr = 14,000 rub. And R pok = 10,000 rubles, we get an expression that allows us to solve the problem:

d =(14 000 - 10 000) : 10 000  3  100 = 120%.

Rice. 10.2. Algorithm for solving the problem of comparing yields
Example 2. Determine the listing price Z the bank of its bills (discount), provided that the bill is issued in the amount of 200,000 rubles. with due date  t 2 = 300 days, bank interest rate is (5) = 140% per annum. Take the year equal financial year (T 1 = T 2 = t 1 = 360 days).

Step 1. The first financial instrument is deposit deposit in the bank. The second financial instrument is a discount bill.

Step 2. In accordance with formula (10), the profitability of financial instruments should be approximately equal to each other:

d 1 =d 2 .

However, this formula is not an equation for an unknown quantity.

Step 3. Let us detail the equation using formula (11) to solve the problem. Let us take into account that  T 1 = T 2 = 360 days,  t 1 = 360 days and  t 2 = 300 days. Thus,  1 = l and  2 = 360: 300 = 1.2. Let us also take into account that Z 1 = Z 2 = Z. As a result, we obtain the expression

= 1,2.

This equation also cannot be used to solve the problem.

Step 4. From formula (6) we determine the amount that will be received from the bank when paying income at a simple interest rate of one; interest payment:

D 1 =  1 = Z = Zl,4.

From formula (4) we determine the income that the owner of the bill will receive:

D 2 = d 2 = (200 000 - Z).

We substitute these expressions into the formula obtained in the previous step and get

Z =
l,2.
We solve this equation with respect to the unknown Z and as a result we find the price of placing the bill, which will be equal to Z= 92,308 rub.

Particular methods for solving computational problems

Own and borrowed funds when making transactions with securities

Solution. Let us first consider solving this problem using the traditional step-by-step method.

Step 1. The security type (share) is specified.

Step 2. From formula (1) we obtain the expression

d =
100 = 28%,

Where Z- market value of the financial instrument.

However, we cannot solve the equation, since from the problem conditions we only know d- the return on a financial instrument on invested own funds and the share of own funds in the acquisition of this financial instrument.

Step 3. Using formula (2), in which  T = t= 0.5 years, allows us to calculate  = 1. As a result, we obtain the expression

d = 100 = 28%.
This equation also cannot be used to solve the problem.

Step 4. Taking into account that the investor receives only discount income, we transform the formula for income taking into account taxation (9) to the form

D = d(1 -  d) =  d0,7.

Hence, we present the expression for profitability in the form

d =
= 28%.

This expression also does not allow us to solve the problem.

Step 5. From the problem conditions it follows that:

• 
  in six months, the market value of the financial instrument will increase by 42%, i.e. the expression will be true R pr = 1.42 Z;

• 
  the cost of purchasing a share is equal to its cost and the interest paid on the bank loan, i.e.

The expressions obtained above allow us to transform the formula for discount income (4) to the form

d = (P etc - R pok) = 42 Z(1 - ).

We use this expression in the formula obtained above to calculate profitability. As a result of this substitution we get

d =
= 28%.

This expression is an equation for . Solving the resulting equation allows us to obtain the answer:  = 44.76%.

From the above it is clear that this problem can be solved using the formula for solving problems that arise when using your own and borrowed money when making transactions with securities:

d =
(13)

Where d- profitability of a financial instrument;

TO - increase in exchange rate value;

 - bank rate;

 - share of borrowed funds;

 1 - coefficient taking into account income taxation.

Moreover, solving a problem like the one given above will come down to filling out a table, determining the unknown with respect to which the problem is being solved, substituting known quantities into the general equation and solving the resulting equation. Let's demonstrate this with an example.

Example 2. An investor decides to purchase a share with an expected increase in market value of 15% per quarter. The investor has the opportunity to pay 74% of the actual cost of the share using his own funds. At what maximum quarterly percentage should an investor take out a loan from a bank in order to ensure a return on invested own funds of at least 3% per quarter? Taxation is not taken into account.

Solution. Let's fill out the table:

The general equation takes the form

0,03 = (0,15 -  0,26) : 0,74 ,

which can be converted into a form convenient for solving:

 = (0,15 – 0,03 . 0,74) : 0,26 = 0,26 ,

or as a percentage  = 26%.

Zero coupon bonds

Solution. Let us denote  - the price of the bond at auction as a percentage of the face value N. Then the yield to the auction will be equal to

d a =
.

The yield to maturity is

d n =
.

We equate d a And d P and solve the resulting equation for  ( = 0.631, or 63.1%).

The expression that was used to solve problems that arise when making transactions with zero-coupon bonds can be represented as a formula

= K

,

Where k- ratio of yield to auction to yield to redemption;

 - cost of state bonds for secondary market(in shares of face value);

 - the cost of state bonds at auction (in shares of the face value);

t- time elapsed after the auction;

T- bond circulation period.

As an example, consider the following problem.

Example 2. The zero-coupon bond was purchased through an initial placement (at auction) at a price of 79.96% of the nominal value. The bond's circulation period is 91 days. Specify the price at which the bond should be sold 30 days after the auction so that the yield at auction is equal to the yield at maturity. Taxation is not taken into account.

Solution. Let's present the problem condition in the form of a table:

Substituting the table data into the basic equation, we obtain the expression

( - 0,7996) : (0,7996  30) – (1 - ) : (  61).

It can be reduced to a quadratic equation of the form

 2 – 0,406354 - 0,3932459 = 0.

Solving this quadratic equation, we obtain  = 86.23%.

Discounted Cash Flow Method

General concepts and terminology

• 
  deposit rate commercial bank, taken as the base;

• 
  scheme for accruing money in a bank (simple or compound interest).

The second question is easier to answer: both cases are considered, i.e. accrual of interest income at simple and compound interest rates. However, as a rule, preference is given to the scheme of calculating interest income at a compound interest rate. Let us remind you that in case of accrual Money according to the simple interest income scheme, it is accrued on the principal sum of money deposited in a bank deposit. When accruing funds according to the compound interest scheme, income is accrued both on the original amount and on the interest income already accrued. In the second case, it is assumed that the investor does not withdraw the amount of the principal deposit and interest on it from the bank account. As a result, this operation is more risky. However, it also brings in more income, which is additional fee for greater risk.

For the method of numerical estimation of parameters of transactions with securities based on discounting of cash flows, its own conceptual apparatus and its own terminology have been introduced. We will now briefly outline it.

Increment And discounting. Different investment options have different payment schedules, which makes direct comparison difficult. Therefore, it is necessary to bring cash receipts to one point in time. If this moment is in the future, then this procedure is called increment, if in the past - discounting.

Future value of money. The money available to the investor at the present time provides him with the opportunity to increase his capital by placing it on deposit in a bank. As a result, in the future the investor will have large sum money, which is called future value of money. In the case of accrual of bank interest income according to the simple interest scheme, the future value of money is equal to

P F= P C(1+ n)

For a compound interest scheme, this expression takes the form

P F= P C (1 + ) n

Where R F - future value of money;

P C - the original amount of money (the current value of money);

 - bank deposit rate;

P- the number of periods of accrual of cash income.

Coefficients (1+ ) n for compound interest rate and (1 + n) for a simple interest rate are called growth rates.

The original cost of money. In the case of discounting, the problem is the opposite. The amount of money that is expected to be received in the future is known, and it is necessary to determine how much money must be invested at the present time in order to have a given amount in the future, i.e., in other words, it is necessary to calculate

P C=
,

where is the factor
- called discount factor. Obviously, this expression is valid for the case of accruing a deposit according to the compound interest income scheme.

Inside rate profitability. This rate is the result of solving a problem in which the current value of investments and their future value are known, and the unknown value is deposit rate bank interest income, at which a certain investment in the present will provide a given value in the future. The internal rate of return is calculated using the formula

 =
-1.

Discounting cash flows. Cash flows are the returns received at different times by investors from investing in in cash. Discounting, which is a reduction of the future value of investments to their current value, allows you to compare different kinds investments made at different times and under different conditions.

Let's consider the case when any financial instrument brings at the initial moment of time an income equal to C 0 for the period of the first interest payments - WITH 1 , second - C 2, ..., for the period n-x interest payments - WITH n . The total income from this operation will be

D=C 0 +C 1 +C 2 +… +C n .

Discounting this scheme cash receipts to the initial moment of time will give the following expression for calculating the value of the current market value financial instrument:

C 0 +
+
+…+
=P C. (15)

Annuities. In the case when all payments are equal to each other, the above formula simplifies and takes the form

C(1 +
+
+…+) =
P C.

If these regular payments are received annually, they are called annuities. The annuity value is calculated as

C =
.

Nowadays, the term is often applied to all the same regular payments, regardless of their frequency.

Examples of using the discounted cash flow method

Example 1. The investor needs to determine the market value of the bond, on which interest income is paid at the initial point in time and for each quarterly coupon period WITH in the amount of 10% of the nominal value of the bond N, and two years after the end of the bond's circulation period - interest income and the nominal value of the bond equal to 1000 rubles.

As an alternative investment scheme, it is proposed bank deposit for two years with accrual of interest income according to the scheme of compound interest quarterly payments at a rate of 40% per annum.

Solution. For To solve this problem, formula (15) is used,

Where P= 8 (in two years 8 quarterly coupon payments);

 = 10% (annual interest rate equal to 40%, recalculated per quarter);

N= 1000 rub. (face value of the bond);

WITH 0 –C 1 = WITH 2 - … = WITH 7 = WITH= 0,1N– 100 rub.,

C 8 = C + N= 1100 rub.

From formula (15), using the conditions of this problem, to calculate

C(1+++…+)+=(N+C
).

Substituting the numerical values ​​of the parameters into this formula, we obtain the current value of the market value of the bond, equal to P C = 1100 rub.

Example 2. Determine the listing price commercial bank their discount bills, provided that the bill is issued in the amount of RUB 1,200,000. with a payment term of 90 days, bank rate - 60% per annum. The bank accrues interest income monthly using a compound interest scheme. A year is considered equal to 360 calendar days.

First, let's solve the problem using the general approach (alternative return method), which was discussed earlier. Then we solve the problem using the discounted cash flow method.

Solving the problem using the general method (alternative yield method). When solving this problem, it is necessary to take into account the basic principle that is fulfilled in a normally functioning stock market. This principle is that in such a market the profitability of various financial instruments should be approximately the same.

The investor at the initial moment of time has a certain amount of money X, to which he can:

• 
  or buy a bill and after 90 days receive 1,200,000 rubles;

• 
  or put the money in the bank and receive the same amount after 90 days.

In the first case (purchase of a bill), the income is equal to: D= (1200000 – X), expenses Z = X. Therefore, the return for 90 days is equal to

d 1 =D/Z=(1200000 – X)/X.

In the second case (placing funds on a bank deposit)

D= X(1 + ) 3 – X, Z = X.

d 2 - D/Z= [ X(1+) 3 - X/X.

Note that this formula uses  - the bank rate recalculated for 30 days, which is equal to

 - 60  (30/360) = 5%.

d 1 = d 2), we get the equation for calculating X:

(1200000 - X)/X-(X 1,57625 - X)/X.

X, we get X = RUB 1,036,605.12

Solving the problem using the discounted cash flow method. To solve this problem we use formula (15). In this formula we will make the following substitutions:

• 
  interest income in the bank was accrued over three months, i.e. n = 3;
• 
  the bank rate recalculated for 30 days is  - 60  (30/360) - 5%;
• 
  No intermediate payments are made on the discount bill, i.e. WITH 0 = WITH 1 = WITH 2 = 0;
• 
  after three months, the bill is canceled and a bill amount equal to 1,200,000 rubles is paid on it, i.e. C 3 = 1200000 rub.

Substituting the given numerical values ​​into formula (15), we obtain the equation R With = 1,200,000/(1.05) 3 , solving which we get

P C = 1,200,000: 1.157625 - 1,036,605.12 rub.

As can be seen, for problems of this class the solution methods are equivalent.

Example 3. The issuer issues a bond loan in the amount of 500 million rubles. for a period of one year. A coupon (120% per annum) is paid upon redemption. At the same time, the issuer begins to form a fund to repay this issue and the interest due, setting aside at the beginning of each quarter a certain constant amount of money in a special bank account, on which the bank accrues quarterly interest at a compound rate of 15% per quarter. Determine (excluding taxation) the size of one quarterly installment, assuming that the moment of the last installment corresponds to the moment of repayment of the loan and payment of interest.

Solution. It is more convenient to solve this problem using the cash flow increment method. After a year, the issuer is obliged to return to investors

500 + 500  1.2 = 500 + 600 = 1,100 million rubles.

He should receive this amount from the bank at the end of the year. In this case, the investor makes the following investments in the bank:

1) at the beginning of the year X rub. for a year at 15% of quarterly payments to the bank at a compound interest rate. From this amount he will have at the end of the year X(1,15) 4 rub.;

2) after the end of the first quarter X rub. for three quarters under the same conditions. As a result, at the end of the year, from this amount he will have X(1.15) 3 rubles;

3) similarly, an investment for six months will give at the end of the year the amount of X (1.15) 2 rubles;

4) the penultimate investment for the quarter will give X (1.15) rubles by the end of the year;

5) and the last payment to the bank in the amount X coincides in terms of the problem with loan repayment.

Thus, having invested money in the bank according to the specified scheme, the investor at the end of the year will receive the following amount:

X(1,15) 4 + X(1,15) 3 + X(1,15) 2 + X(1,15) +X= 1100 million rubles.

Solving this equation for X, we get X = 163.147 million rubles.

Examples of solving some problems

Market value of financial instruments

Task 1. Determine the price for a commercial bank to place its bills (discounted) under the condition: the bill is issued in the amount of 1,000,000 rubles. with a payment term of 30 days, bank rate - 60% per annum. Consider a year to be equal to 360 calendar days.

Solution. When solving this problem, it is necessary to take into account the basic principle that is fulfilled in a normally functioning stock market. This principle is that in such a market the profitability of various financial instruments should be approximately the same. The investor at the initial moment of time has a certain amount of money X, to which he can:

• 
  or buy a bill and after 30 days receive 1,000,000 rubles;
• 
  or put money in the bank and receive the same amount after 30 days.

Therefore, the profitability for 30 days is equal to

d 1 = D/Z- (1 000 000 - X)/X.

In the second case (bank deposit), similar values ​​are equal

D - X(1+) - X; Z= X; d 2 = D/Z=[X(1+) - X]/X.

Note that this formula uses  - bank rate, recalculated for 30 days and equal to:  = 60  30/360 = 5%.

Equating the returns of two financial instruments to each other ( d 1 =d 2), we get the equation for calculating X :

(1 000 000 - X)/X- (X 1 ,05 - X)/X.

Solving this equation for X, we get

X= RUB 952,380.95

Task 2. Investor A bought shares at a price of 20,250 rubles, and three days later sold them at a profit to investor B, who, in turn, three days after the purchase, resold these shares to investor C at a price of 59,900 rubles. At what price did investor B buy the specified securities from investor A, if it is known that both of these investors secured the same profitability from the resale of shares?

Solution. Let us introduce the following notation:

P 1 - the price of shares at the first transaction;

R 2 - value of shares in the second transaction;

R 3 - value of shares in the third transaction.

The profitability of the operation that investor A was able to secure for himself:

d a = ( P 2 – P 1)/P 1

A similar value for the operation performed by investor B:

d B = (R 3 - R 2)/R 2 .

According to the conditions of the problem d a = d B , or P 2 /P 1 - 1 = R 3 /R 2 - 1.

From here we get R 2 2 = R 1 , R 3 = 20250 - 59900.

The answer to this problem: R 2 = 34,828 rub.

Profitability of financial instruments

Task 3. The nominal value of JSC shares is 100 rubles. per share, current market price - 600 rubles. per share. The company pays a quarterly dividend of 20 rubles. per share. What is the current annualized return on JSC shares?

Solution.

N= 100 rub. - par value of the share;

X= 600 rub. - market price of the share;

d K = 20 rubles/quarter - bond yield for the quarter.

Current annualized yield d G is defined as the quotient of income per year divided D on the cost of purchasing this financial instrument X:

d G = D/X.

Income for the year is calculated as the total quarterly income for the year: D= 4 d G - 4  20 = 80 rub.

Acquisition costs are determined by the market price of this financial instrument X = 600 rubles. The current yield is

d G = D/X= 80: 600 = 0.1333, or 13.33%.

Task 4. Current yield preference share, the declared dividend of which upon issue is 11%, and the nominal value is 1000 rubles, in this year amounted to 8%. Is this situation correct?

Solution. Notation adopted in the problem: N= 1000 rub. - par value of the share;

q = 11% - declared dividend of preferred shares;

d G = 8% - current yield; X = market price of the share (unknown).

The quantities given in the problem conditions are related to each other by the relation

d G = qN/X.

You can determine the market price of a preferred share:

X - qN/d G - 0.1 1  1000: 0.08 - 1375 rub.

Thus, the situation described in the conditions of the problem is correct, provided that the market price of the preferred share is 1375 rubles.

Task 5. How will the percentage change to previous day yield for an auction of a zero-coupon bond with a circulation period of one year (360 days), if the bond rate on the third day after the auction does not change compared to the previous day?

Solution. The bond yield for the auction (annualized) on the third day after it is determined by the formula
d 3 =

.

Where X- auction price of the bond, % of par value;

R- market price of the bond on the third day after the auction.

A similar value calculated for the second day is equal to

d 2 =
.

Change in percentage compared to the previous day in the bond yield at the auction:

= -= 0,333333,

or 33.3333%.

The yield of the bond before the auction will decrease by 33.3333%.

Task 6. A bond issued for a period of three years, with a coupon of 80% per annum, is sold at a discount of 15%. Calculate its yield to maturity without taking into account taxes.

Solution. The bond's yield to maturity without taking into account taxes is equal to

d =
,

Where D- income received on the bond for three years;

Z - costs of purchasing a bond;

 - coefficient recalculating profitability for the year.

The income for three years of the bond's circulation consists of three coupon payments and discount income at maturity. So it is equal

D = 0,8N3 + 0,15 N= 2,55 N.

The cost of purchasing a bond is

Z= 0,85N.

The annualized profitability conversion factor is obviously  = 1/3. Hence,

d =
= 1, or 100%.

Task 7. The share price increased by 15% over the year, dividends were paid quarterly in the amount of 2,500 rubles. per share. Determine the total return on the stock for the year if at the end of the year the exchange rate was 11,500 rubles. (taxation is not taken into account).

Solution. The return on a stock for the year is calculated using the formula

d= D/Z

Where D- income received by the owner of the share;

Z is the cost of its acquisition.

D- calculated by the formula D= + ,

where  is the discount part of income;

 - percentage of income.

In this case = ( R 1 - P 0 ),

Where R 1 - share price by the end of the year;

P 0 - share price at the beginning of the year (note that P 0 = Z).

Since at the end of the year the price of the share was equal to 11,500 rubles, and the increase in the market value of the shares was 15%, then, therefore, at the beginning of the year the share cost 10,000 rubles. From here we get:

 = 1500 rub.,

 = 2500  4 = 10,000 rub. (four payments in four quarters),

D=  +  = 1500 + 10,000 = 11,500 rub.;

Z = P 0 = 10000 rub.;

d = D/Z= 11500: 10000 = 1.15, or d= 115%.

Task 8. Bills of exchange with a maturity date 6 months from issuance are sold at a discount at a single price within two weeks from the date of issuance. Assuming that each month contains exactly 4 weeks, calculate (as a percentage) the ratio annual return on bills purchased on the first day of their placement, to the annual yield on bills purchased on the last day of their placement.

Solution. The annual yield on bills purchased on the first day of their placement is equal to

d 1 = (D/Z) - 12/t = /(1 - )  12/6 = /(1 - ) . 2,

Where D- bond yield equal to D= N;

N- bond par value;

 - discount as a percentage of the nominal value;

Z- the cost of the bond upon placement, equal to Z = (1 - ) N;

t- circulation time of a bond purchased on the first day of its issue (6 months).

The annual yield on bills purchased on the last day of their placement (two weeks later) is equal to

d 2 = (D/Z)  12/ t = /(1 - ) - (12: 5,5) = /(1 - ) . 2, 181818,

where  t- the circulation time of a bond purchased on the last day of its issue (two weeks later) is equal to 5.5 months.

From here d 1 /d 2 = 2: 2.181818 = 0.9167, or 91.67%.

Highly specialized material for professional investors
and students of the Fin-plan course "".

Financial and economic calculations most often involve the assessment of cash flows distributed over time. Actually, for these purposes a discount rate is needed. From the point of view of financial mathematics and investment theory, this indicator is one of the key ones. Methods are built on it investment assessment business based on the concept of cash flows, with its help a dynamic assessment of the effectiveness of investments, both real and stock, is carried out. Today, there are already more than a dozen ways to select or calculate this value. Mastering these methods allows professional investor make more informed and timely decisions.

But, before moving on to methods for justifying this rate, let’s understand its economic and mathematical essence. Actually, two approaches are used to define the term “discount rate”: conventionally mathematical (or process), and economic.

The classic definition of the discount rate comes from the well-known monetary axiom: “money today is worth more than money tomorrow.” Hence the discount rate is some percentage value, which allows you to reduce the value of future cash flows to their current cost equivalent. The fact is that many factors influence the depreciation of future income: inflation; risks of non-receipt or shortfall of income; lost profits that arise when a more profitable alternative opportunity to invest funds appears in the process of implementing a decision already made by the investor; systemic factors and others.

By using a discount rate in his calculations, the investor is discounting, or discounting, expected future cash income to the current point in time, thereby taking into account the above factors. Discounting also allows the investor to analyze cash flows distributed over time.

However, one should not confuse the discount rate and the discount factor. The discount factor is usually operated in the calculation process as a certain intermediate value, calculated on the basis of the discount rate using the formula:

where t is the number of the forecast period in which cash flows are expected.

The product of the future cash flow and the discount factor shows the current equivalent of the expected income. However, the mathematical approach does not explain how the discount rate itself is calculated.

For these purposes it is used economic principle, according to which the discount rate is a certain alternative return comparable investments with the same level risk. A rational investor, making a decision to invest money, will agree to implement his “project” only if its profitability turns out to be higher than the alternative one available on the market. This is not an easy task, since it is very difficult to compare investment options by risk level, especially in conditions of lack of information. In the theory of investment decision making, this problem is solved by decomposing the discount rate into two components - the risk-free rate and risks:

The risk-free rate of return is the same for all investors and is subject only to the risks of the economic system. The investor assesses the remaining risks independently, usually based on expert assessment.

There are many models for justifying the discount rate, but they all correspond in one way or another to this basic fundamental principle.

Thus, the discount rate always consists of the risk-free rate and the total investment risk specific investment asset. The starting point in this calculation is the risk-free rate.

Risk-free rate

The risk-free rate (or the risk-free rate of return) is the expected rate of return on assets for which its own financial risk equal to zero. In other words, this is the return on absolutely reliable investment options, for example, financial instruments, the profitability of which is guaranteed by the state. We emphasize that even for absolutely reliable financial investments absolute risk cannot be absent (in this case, the rate of return would tend to zero). The risk-free rate includes the risk factors of the economic system itself, risks that no investor can influence: macroeconomic factors, political events, changes in legislation, emergency anthropogenic and natural events, etc.

Therefore, the risk-free rate reflects the minimum possible return acceptable to the investor. The investor must choose the risk-free rate for himself. You can count average value bets from several potentially risk-free investment options.

When choosing a risk-free rate, an investor must take into account the comparability of his investments with the risk-free option according to such criteria as:

The scale or total cost of the investment.

Investment period or investment horizon.

The physical possibility of investing in a risk-free asset.

Equivalence of denominated rates in foreign currency, and others.

Return rates on time ruble deposits in banks of the highest reliability category. In Russia, such banks include Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank, Rosselkhozbank and a number of others, a list of which can be viewed on the website Central Bank RF. When choosing a risk-free rate using this method, it is necessary to take into account the comparability of the investment period and the period for fixing the deposit rate.

Let's give an example. Let's use the data from the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. As of August 2017, the weighted average interest rates on deposits in rubles for up to 1 year were 6.77%. This rate is risk-free for most investors investing for up to 1 year;

Yield level on Russian government debt financial instruments. In this case, the risk-free rate is fixed in the form of the yield on (OFZ). These debt securities are issued and guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, therefore they are considered the most reliable financial asset in the Russian Federation. With a maturity of 1 year, OFZ rates currently range from 7.5% to 8.5%.

Profitability level for foreign government securities. In this case, the risk-free rate is equal to the yield on US government bonds with maturities from 1 year to 30 years. Traditionally, the US economy has been internationally rating agencies estimated at highest level reliability, and, consequently, the yield of their government bonds is considered risk-free. However, it should be taken into account that the risk-free rate in this case is denominated in dollar rather than ruble equivalent. Therefore, to analyze investments in rubles, an additional adjustment is necessary for the so-called country risk;

Yield level on Russian government Eurobonds. This risk-free rate is also denominated in US dollars.

Key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. At the time of writing this article, the key rate is 9.0%. This rate is considered to reflect the price of money in the economy. An increase in this rate entails an increase in the cost of the loan and is a consequence of an increase in risks. This tool should be used with great caution, since it is still a guideline and not a market indicator.

Interbank lending market rates. These rates are indicative and more acceptable compared to key rate. Monitoring and a list of these rates are again presented on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. For example, as of August 2017: MIACR 8.34%; RUONIA 8.22%, MosPrime Rate 8.99% (1 day); ROISfix 8.98% (1 week). All these rates are short-term in nature and represent the profitability of lending operations of the most reliable banks.

Discount rate calculation

To calculate the discount rate, the risk-free rate should be increased by the risk premium that the investor assumes when making certain investments. It is impossible to assess all risks, so the investor must independently decide which risks should be taken into account and how.

The following parameters have the greatest influence on the risk premium and, ultimately, the discount rate:

The size of the issuing company and the stage of its life cycle.

The nature of the liquidity of the company's shares on the market and their volatility. The most liquid stocks generate the least risk;

Financial condition issuer of shares. Stable financial position increases the adequacy and accuracy of forecasting the company's cash flow;

Business reputation and market perception of the company, investor expectations regarding the company;

Industry affiliation and risks inherent in this industry;

The degree of exposure of the issuing company’s activities to macroeconomic conditions: inflation, fluctuations interest rates And exchange rates and so on.

A separate group of risks includes the so-called country risks, that is, the risks of investing in the economy of a particular state, for example Russia. Country risks are usually already included in the risk-free rate if the rate itself and the risk-free yield are denominated in the same currencies. If the risk-free return is in dollar terms, and the discount rate is needed in rubles, then it will be necessary to add country risk.

This is just a short list of risk factors that can be taken into account in the discount rate. Actually, depending on the method of assessing investment risks, the methods for calculating the discount rate differ.

Let's briefly look at the main methods for justifying the discount rate. To date, more than a dozen methods for determining this indicator have been classified, but they are all grouped as follows (from simple to complex):

Conventionally “intuitive” - based rather on the psychological motives of the investor, his personal beliefs and expectations.

Expert, or qualitative - based on the opinion of one or a group of specialists.

Analytical – based on statistics and market data.

Mathematical or quantitative - require mathematical modeling and possession of relevant knowledge.

An “intuitive” way to determine the discount rate

Compared to other methods this method is the simplest. The choice of discount rate in this case is not mathematically justified in any way and represents only the investor’s desire, or his preference about the level of profitability of his investments. An investor can rely on his previous experience, or on the profitability of similar investments (not necessarily his own) if information about the profitability of alternative investments is known to him.

Most often, the discount rate is “intuitively” calculated approximately by multiplying the risk-free rate (as a rule, this is simply the rate on deposits or OFZ) by some adjustment factor of 1.5, or 2, etc. Thus, the investor, as it were, “estimates” the level of risks for himself.

For example, when calculating discounted cash flows and fair values ​​of companies in which we plan to invest, we typically use the following rate: average rate on deposits, multiplied by 2, if we're talking about about blue chips and apply higher odds when we are talking about 2nd and 3rd tier companies.

This method is the easiest for a private investor to practice and is used even in large investment funds experienced analysts, but he is not held in high esteem among academic economists because he allows for “subjectivity.” In this regard, in this article we will give an overview of other methods for determining the discount rate.

Calculation of discount rate based on expert assessment

The expert method is used when investments involve investing in shares of companies in new industries or activities, startups or venture funds and when adequate market statistics are not available or financial information about the issuing company.

The expert method for determining the discount rate consists of surveying and averaging the subjective opinions of various specialists about the level, for example, of the expected return on a specific investment. The disadvantage of this approach is the relatively high degree of subjectivity.

You can increase the accuracy of calculations and somewhat level out subjective assessments by decomposing the bet into a risk-free level and risks. The investor chooses the risk-free rate independently, and the assessment of the level of investment risks, the approximate content of which we described earlier, is carried out by experts.

The method is well applicable for investment teams that employ investment experts of various profiles (currency, industry, raw materials, etc.).

Calculation of the discount rate using analytical methods

There are quite a lot of analytical ways to justify the discount rate. All of them are based on theories of firm economics and financial analysis, financial mathematics and principles of business valuation. Let's give a few examples.

Calculation of the discount rate based on profitability indicators

In this case, the justification for the discount rate is carried out on the basis of various profitability indicators, which in turn are calculated based on data and. The basic indicator is return on equity (ROE, Return On Equity), but there may be others, for example, return on assets (ROA, Return On Assets).

Most often it is used to evaluate new investment projects within an existing business, where the nearest alternative rate of return is precisely the profitability of the current business.

Calculation of the discount rate based on the Gordon model (constant dividend growth model)

This method of calculating the discount rate is acceptable for companies paying dividends on their shares. This method presupposes the fulfillment of several conditions: payment and positive dynamics of dividends, no restrictions on the life of the business, stable growth of the company’s income.

The discount rate in this case is equal to the expected return on the company's equity capital and is calculated by the formula:

This method is applicable for assessing investments in new company projects by shareholders of this business who do not control profits, but only receive dividends.

Calculation of the discount rate using quantitative analysis methods

From the perspective of investment theory, these methods and their variations are the main and most accurate. Despite the many varieties, all these methods can be reduced to three groups:

Cumulative construction models.

Capital asset pricing models CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model).

WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) models.

Most of these models are quite complex and require certain mathematical or economic skills. We'll consider general principles and basic calculation models.

Cumulative construction model

Within this method, the discount rate is the sum of the risk-free rate of expected return and the total investment risk for all types of risk. The method of justifying the discount rate based on risk premiums to the risk-free level of return is used when it is difficult or impossible to assess the relationship between risk and return on investment in the business being analyzed using mathematical statistics. In general, the calculation formula looks like this:

Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM

The author of this model is Nobel laureate in economics W. Sharp. The logic of this model is no different from the previous one (the rate of return is the sum of the risk-free rate and risks), but the method for assessing investment risk is different.

This model is considered fundamental because it establishes the dependence of profitability on the degree of its exposure external factors market risk. This relationship is assessed through the so-called “beta” coefficient, which is essentially a measure of the elasticity of an asset’s return to changes in the average market return of similar assets on the market. In general, the CAPM model is described by the formula:

Where β is the “beta” coefficient, a measure of systematic risk, the degree of dependence of the assessed asset on the risks of the economic system itself, and the average market return is the average return on the market of similar investment assets.

If the “beta” coefficient is above 1, then the asset is “aggressive” (more profitable, changes faster than the market, but also more risky in relation to its analogues on the market). If the beta coefficient is below 1, then the asset is “passive” or “defensive” (less profitable, but also less risky). If the “beta” coefficient is equal to 1, then the asset is “indifferent” (its profitability changes in parallel with the market).

Calculation of discount rate based on WACC model

Estimating the discount rate based on the company's weighted average cost of capital allows us to estimate the cost of all sources of financing its activities. This indicator reflects the company's actual costs of paying for borrowed capital, share capital, other sources weighted by their share in general structure passive. If a company's actual profitability is higher than the WACC, then it generates some added value for its shareholders, and vice versa. That is why the WACC indicator is also considered as a barrier value of the required return for the company’s investors, that is, the discount rate.

The WACC indicator is calculated using the formula:

Of course, the range of methods for justifying the discount rate is quite wide. We have described only the main methods most often used by investors in a given situation. As we said earlier in our practice, we use the simplest, but quite effective “intuitive” method of determining the rate. The choice of a specific method always remains with the investor. You can learn the entire process of making investment decisions in practice in our courses at. We teach in-depth analytical techniques already at the second level of training, in advanced training courses for practicing investors. You can evaluate the quality of our training and take your first steps in investing by signing up for our courses.

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