The volume of funds of the national welfare fund. National Welfare Fund of Russia

Every economy is simply obliged to have a certain margin of safety. As for the history of Russian strength, the next cycle is over today. Initially, the economy of the great state was supported by the Stabilization Fund, created in 2004. In 2008, it was completely restructured and renamed the Reserve and Welfare Fund. He acted as a rational continuation of the “budget development” program created in 1998 to finance large-scale industrial projects that were supposed to act as an engine in a crisis.

The primary idea of ​​the Stabilization Fund

The innovative format of the Stabilization Fund completely contradicted the fundamental idea of ​​the “development budget” project. It was based on the formation of a reserve, which was supposed to compensate, if necessary, due to an unexpected drop in the price of oil, while sterilizing excessive dollar revenues from oil sales. Inflation was to be controlled by investing in foreign assets. IN medium term The stabilization fund was supposed to act as a reserve to eliminate problems associated with financing the structure of state pensions. In fact, the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund act as a specialized monetary fund, which is actively used today to stabilize the state budget as a result of a reduction in income. It can also be used in state needs, but in long term.

Why does Russia need a fund?

The Russian reserve fund has been formed over many decades due to the fact that the state budget is highly dependent on the market situation external factors. The well-being of states depends on world prices for commodities. Today, when the country is subject to strict sanctions from Europe and with the critically low cost of oil, funds from the sale of which dominate the budget replenishment, it is the collected reserve that helps the country survive. It allows you to stay on course national currency and becomes the basis for the state to fulfill its obligations to the population. If Russia did not have reserves, the country would have long ago faced such a phenomenon as default.

Stages of reserve formation

First stage of formation Reserve Fund started in 2003. An account was formed into which funds earned from exports were received natural resources. Let us clarify here that it was not profits from the sale of oil that were sent to a special account, but excess profits. That is, the remainder of the money from fuel sales that were not provided for by insufficiently optimistic forecasts. The second stage of reserve formation was the creation of the Stabilization Fund in 2004, which was essentially part of federal budget. Due to the fact that the domestic economy was strongly tied to the commodity market, the formation of a “safety cushion” became prerequisite further prosperity of the nation. The last stage in the formation of the reserve is the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund.

Stabilization of the economy through the fund

The state's export capabilities suffer significantly from its strong dependence on oil and gas exports. The situation leaves a negative imprint on the status of the state and deals a blow to production capacity which are export oriented. The source of funds entering the economy in a natural format due to the export of goods and services has been blocked. All incoming cash flows are blocked by petrodollars. The Russian Reserve Fund is today responsible for ensuring balance in the federal budget, since the price of oil today is several orders of magnitude lower than what was budgeted for 2014-2017. The Fund is responsible for tying up excess liquidity, reducing inflationary impacts, eliminating the impact of price shocks on the global commodity market on national economy. We can summarize and highlight three main functions of the fund:

• Covering the Russian budget deficit.
• Preventing development in the economy.
• Financing pension savings and covering the budget deficit of the Pension Fund.

The purpose of the Fund is welfare and movement of funds

Theory is one thing, but practice and history speak of a slightly different purpose of the reserve. The Reserve Fund funds are used to ensure that the state fulfills expenditure-type obligations while revenues from the oil and gas sector of the economy are declining. The volume of reserves is set at 10% of the expected volume of GDP. Initially, cash flows are sent to treasury accounts. The missing amount of funds from the non-oil sector is covered by redirecting money through the oil and gas transfer. Next comes the filling of the Reserve Fund itself. After its volume corresponds to 10% of the funds received, cash flow redirected to the National Welfare Fund, which will compensate for the pension budget deficit. The reserve fund remains untouched until revenues from the oil and gas sector of the economy are reduced significantly. Most of the savings reserve capital converted into financial assets and currency. This debentures international organizations and securities, deposits in foreign financial institutions.

Where does the flow of funds into the country's reserves come from?

The Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund are formed not only from excess profits from oil sales. Capital replenishment occurs thanks to:

• mineral development tax;
• export duties on crude fuel;
• duties levied on the export of goods made from oil.

Another source of replenishment is profit from managing the latter’s funds. The size of the Reserve Fund is controlled by accounting for funds in separate accounts opened by the Treasury with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. All incoming and outgoing transactions on the account are carried out by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in accordance with the law.

Special mechanisms for managing the fund's assets

As mentioned above, the National Welfare Fund acts as part of the federal budget. At the same time, reserve funds are managed in a slightly different format than financial assets in the federal budget. The main goals of money management are to preserve them, as well as to stabilize the level of income from their transformation into assets in the long term. All assets into which funds can be transformed are clearly defined by the Budget Code of the Russian Federation. Assistance from the National Welfare Fund is provided immediately when a deficit occurs. Information about the receipt and expenditure of funds from the reserve is published every month in the media.

The amount of savings of the Russian government

The Russian Federation informed the public that over the past two years the National Welfare Fund has increased by about 51.3%, and the Reserve Fund has grown by 72.9%. The reserve fund increased by 2.085 trillion rubles and by January 1, 2015, despite the prevailing crisis, amounted to 4.945 billion. In dollar equivalent, both reserves are estimated by experts at $165 billion. The positive capital gains are overshadowed by a statement from the Accounts Chamber in October 2014. According to agency representatives, while the rate of decline in oil prices continues international market and with the degradation of the state’s economy, Russia’s National Welfare Fund will be completely exhausted in the next two years.

Latest data from the Ministry of Finance

As of April 1, 2015, the size of the Reserve Fund was 4.425 trillion rubles or $75.7 billion. The National Welfare Fund is equivalent to 4.436 trillion rubles or 74.35 billion dollars. During the month of March, a reduction in the National Welfare Fund was recorded by 244 billion rubles, and the Reserve Fund - by 295 billion rubles. Let us recall that at the end of March the State Duma adopted a crisis budget, which stipulated the conditions for spending funds from the funds. According to preliminary calculations, the volume of the reserve by the end of 2015 will be only 4.618 trillion rubles. It is planned to spend about 864.4 billion rubles on the development of infrastructure projects to reconstruct the state’s economy.

Now many people talk and write about how the reserve fund and the National Welfare Fund of Russia when the funds of the National Welfare Fund and the reserve fund run out, etc. So I also decided not to stand aside, and I will write a little of my opinion on these issues - on the use of the reserve funds of the Russian Federation. But first, a little theory and analytics to get a good idea of ​​what we’re talking about.

So, in general, having a reserve fund is a normal and necessary practice for any business entity: from the state to an individual. The funds from the reserve funds serve as the so-called a financial “safety cushion” that can always be used in the event of certain force majeure situations that require financing.

Russia began to think about the need to create state reserves in the early 2000s, and on January 1, 2004, the Stabilization Fund was created (the idea of ​​its creation belonged to the then Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin). The stabilization fund was formed from the world's leading currencies (primarily dollars and euros), as well as highly reliable bonds developed countries. The initial volume of the stabilization fund was only 5.9 billion dollars or 171.3 billion rubles.

Over the following years, Russia’s stabilization fund was gradually replenished, and in the run-up financial crisis 2008, or more precisely, on February 1, 2008, the stabilization fund, the volume of which at that time was already 156.81 billion dollars or 3.849 trillion. rubles, was divided into two different funds:

1. Reserve Fund (at that time - 125.19 billion dollars or 3.058 trillion rubles);
2. National Welfare Fund of the National Welfare Fund (at that time - 32 billion dollars or 783 billion rubles).

Let us briefly consider the main characteristics of these funds.

Reserve Fund of the Russian Federation.

Russia's reserve fund is formed from income from the sale of oil and gas, which exceeds planned revenues for these budget items, as well as from income from managing the assets of the fund itself. At the same time, oil and gas revenues not exceeding 7% of the state’s GDP were sent to the reserve fund, and the rest of such revenues were sent to the National Welfare Fund.

The size of the Reserve Fund initially grew slightly in the first months of its foundation, but since September 2008 it began to systematically decline. Currently, out of the original 125 billion dollars, only 16 billion dollars remain in it, and this already amounts to just over 2% of GDP (instead of the planned 7%).

National Welfare Fund (NWF) of the Russian Federation.

The Russian National Welfare Fund is formed from income from the sale of oil and gas, which exceeds planned revenues according to budget items and exceeding standard contributions to the reserve fund of the Russian Federation, as well as from income from managing the fund’s assets.

The National Welfare Fund has a clearly defined purpose - co-financing voluntary pension savings of citizens of the Russian Federation and covering the budget deficit Pension Fund RF. That is, the National Welfare Fund was created as part of the mechanism pension system designed to ensure its stability.

The National Welfare Fund of the Russian Federation is partly part of Russia, and partly it is not. This is explained by the fact that the assets of the National Welfare Fund contain both acceptable risk-based assets for gold and foreign exchange reserves, as well as unacceptable, riskier, but also more profitable assets.

Since its creation, the Russian National Welfare Fund, unlike the reserve fund, at first, on the contrary, predominantly grew. By 2009, it reached a volume of $90 billion and fluctuated around this level until 2012, after which it began a gradual decline. Since December 2014, the volume of the National Welfare Fund has decreased below $80 billion, and as of January 1, 2017. amounted to 71.87 billion dollars.

Interestingly, the National Welfare Fund does not just hold funds in highly reliable assets, but also engages in riskier activities, for example, lending. Large loan tranches from the National Welfare Fund were received by VTB Bank, Rosneft, Rosatom and other companies. It should be understood that the liquidity of such assets is significantly lower, that is, borrowers will not be able to instantly repay their loans. This means that not all funds of the National Welfare Fund of the Russian Federation can be used immediately if necessary.

Spending of the reserve fund and the National Welfare Fund of Russia.

Well, now let’s move on to the most interesting thing - the fact that the volumes of these funds in last years have seriously decreased, and many economists have already predicted and are predicting their complete depletion in the near future, in particular they call 2017-2018.

What do we actually have? The volume of the reserve fund of the Russian Federation in December 2016 alone in dollar terms decreased by almost 2 times (from 31.30 to 16.03 billion dollars), and for the entire 2016 - by 3.12 times (from 49.95 billion dollars ). Over the past 3 years since the beginning of 2014, the volume of the reserve fund has decreased by 5.45 times (from $87.38 billion). It is logical to assume that in 2017, with continued use, it will indeed completely dry up (or some symbolic amount will remain there).

The picture with the National Welfare Fund is not so terrible yet: in dollar terms for 2016 it remained virtually unchanged, in ruble terms it decreased by 17% (due to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar). However, this is due to the fact that all this time the reserve fund was mainly used to cover the budget deficit and other missing expenses. Now it’s practically gone, and it’s likely that we’ll have to “get into” the National Welfare Fund.

If we consider only the coverage budget deficit, then according to the officially adopted budget, it is planned at 2.75 trillion in 2017. rubles If we cover only this official figure with funds from the National Welfare Fund, its size will decrease from the current 4.36 trillion. rubles by 2.7 times, and at the end of the year only 1.71 trillion will remain in the fund. rubles And if the trend continues, this amount may no longer be enough next year, 2018.

This is actually what many economists are worried about; as you can see, the calculation here is very simple and logical. And taking into account the fact that not all the funds of the National Wealth Fund can be taken and used so easily (after all, they are partially invested in loans, that is, they are not available at a particular moment), then the National Welfare Fund has even fewer real opportunities.

Of course, it is impossible to say 100% that the reserve fund and the National Welfare Fund of the Russian Federation will be spent. Because other instruments can be used to finance missing expenses, for example, external and internal loans. To external loans in the most favorable financial structures Western countries are now closed to Russia due to sanctions, but if you wish, you can find more expensive loans, for example, in Asian countries.

You can also follow the path of internal borrowing by issuing debt obligations. And this mechanism has already been launched: the Ministry of Finance has begun issuing and placing OFZs, although not for such significant amounts.

Here we need to remember that in 2008, the active attraction of domestic loans through GKOs led to the country (Russia refused to pay on GKOs), so both the issuer and those wishing to borrow their money to the state should be careful with this instrument.

What else can you do? To eliminate or reduce the budget deficit by increasing some revenue items and reducing expenditure items. Judging by experience, this may include raising taxes and reducing social spending. Separate steps in this direction are also already underway, for example, medical costs were reduced by a third in 2017.

In general, there are options, but they all carry their own difficulties, and so far they have not really solved the problem of the budget deficit - it exists and is quite large.

Is it worth spending funds from the National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund of the Russian Federation?

Well, in conclusion, I will write what I think on this issue. The use of reserve funds in itself is a completely normal practice, because that is why they are created. Another issue is that reserve funds are intended to be used in force majeure situations, after which they must be restored to ensure the same possibility in the future. And when recovery does not occur, this is already a problem.

My regular readers know that I like to compare the state/enterprise with a person or family in terms of the need to maintain a budget, record income and expenses, form funds, etc. Today, to make it easier to understand, I will make a reverse comparison.

Just imagine: there is a person who has 6 monthly income. And at some point this person loses his job, loses his income - he faces a force majeure situation. A person begins to use his reserve fund, which is enough for him to live comfortably for 6 months. But what should he do at the same time? Correct: search new job, new sources of income! And if during this period he does not find such sources, his reserve fund will be depleted, and this is where a real financial disaster will occur.

What is Russia doing now by analogy with this man? She has lost her “job” - income from the sale of oil, the price of which has fallen significantly, and at the same time is not looking for a new “job”, but is simply slowly “eating away” from the accumulated reserves. The situation is further aggravated by sanctions and anti-sanctions - this, by analogy, means that now a person will not be hired everywhere; the most interesting and promising job is closed to him.

In this situation, a person should strive to improve as much as possible, improve his reputation in order to find new sources of income, because there is not much time left. Russia is not doing any of this, but is simply proudly waiting for oil prices to rise again so that it can live and earn “as before.” But whether they will rise, and even in such a short time remaining, is a big question. It’s the same as if a person sat and waited to be called back to the job from which he was fired, because he considers himself a very valuable and irreplaceable employee.

In general, as for me, this is a completely dead-end position, but we will see what it leads to as a result. So far the situation is bleak.

Now you have an idea of ​​what the reserve fund and the National Welfare Fund of Russia are, how they change, when the funds’ funds may run out and why. Draw your own conclusions.

See you again at ! Increase your financial literacy and learn to independently analyze the financial and economic situation.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin began saving money for a rainy day. In 2004, he created the Stabilization Fund. Four years later - at the height of the previous crisis - it was divided into the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund. The first was designated as a “safety cushion” for the budget. The National Welfare Fund became a stabilizer of the pension system, although it was never used for its intended purpose. Spending the Stabilization Fund within the country “is simply destroying the economy,” Kudrin wrote in Kommersant in 2006.

Ironically, it was the main fighter for its integrity who was the first to “unseal” the NWF. Kudrin had to open Pandora's box in order to save the financial system from the crisis in 2008-2009. To do this, the ex-minister allowed investing up to 40% of the National Welfare Fund in ruble assets (initially, reserves were kept only in foreign assets and currency).

Kudrin’s idea was that during difficult periods, funds do not decrease, but grow in ruble terms, explains Konstantin Vyshkovsky, director of the Ministry of Finance department: for example, when oil prices fall and the ruble exchange rate depreciates.

But Kudrin had opponents. The main ideologist of investing NWF funds in the economy is presidential assistant Andrei Belousov [formerly the head of the Ministry of Economic Development], several officials and experts close to the government told RBC. Belousov himself did not provide comments for this article.

The organizational weight of Kudrin, who knew the president from his work at the St. Petersburg mayor’s office, made it possible to restrain attacks on the NWF, people close to the ex-minister recall. “But after he left [in September 2011], it was no longer possible to adhere to the principle that we do not invest anything [from the National Welfare Fund] inside Russia,” says a federal official.

In 2012, in a message to parliament, Putin proposed investing up to 100 billion rubles in infrastructure. from the National Welfare Fund. In just six months, the president will increase the limit to 450 billion.

The priority has been changed, stated Finance Minister Anton Siluanov (Kudrin’s deputy before his resignation). Siluanov himself was more conservative. He proposed directing up to 50% of the National Welfare Fund to sovereign and corporate bonds and 3-5% to shares. The funds would be managed by a new structure - Rosfinagentstvo. Kudrin also lobbied for its creation, says a person close to him: this way he wanted to protect reserves from waste.

The Ministry of Finance was in the minority. The authorities decided that it was safer to invest money within the country, the federal official recalled: there was no risk that the money would be seized abroad. Rosfinagentstvo remained on paper, but the National Welfare Fund decided to print it.

Unheard of Generosity Fund

“Whoever asked for anything!” - recalls a government official. Applications even came from citizens, he says: “Allocate 50 million rubles. for personal purposes."

Calls to increase the 40% limit on projects to 50 or 60% began to be heard immediately after the decision to allocate funds from the National Welfare Fund for infrastructure. But then the president did not give in to persuasion, said First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov in the fall of 2013.

As a result, competition for NWF funds has increased sharply. Almost all companies planning any serious investments rushed to submit applications. In mid-2014, the amount of all applications exceeded the size of the fund itself, the official recalls. Behind last year More than a hundred applications were received, says another, in 2015 - only 12 from Rosneft.

The state-owned company generally became the record holder among applicants. Rosneft, which fell under sanctions, needed to fill the lack of external financing. At first, Rosneft limited itself to asking for 2.44 trillion rubles. for the development of 28 strategic projects, says a White House official. Minister economic development Alexey Ulyukaev was shocked, a high-ranking interlocutor of RBC recalled: the entire National Welfare Fund at that time was about 3 trillion rubles, and the application took no more than ten pages. Later, the minister explained that Rosneft’s application did not meet the formal requirements for projects: the company asked for funds not for infrastructure, but to cover the cash gap.

“If there are no additional funds, we will manage on our own,” Rosneft President Igor Sechin was not embarrassed. But he did not lose interest in the funds of the National Welfare Fund, having changed tactics. By January 2015, the Ministry of Energy received 28 separate applications from the company for a total of 1.3 trillion rubles. from the National Welfare Fund. So far, five projects of state-owned companies worth 300 billion rubles have received preliminary approval from the department. Now the decision is up to the government.

“Everything is done in Russian,” sighs the federal official: “First we follow the most conservative possible model. And then we go to the other extreme: without investing a penny, we get a list of projects, and nothing is missing.”

The most convincing lobbyists turned out to be Rosatom and RDIF. In June 2014, the government established separate quotas for their projects - 10% of the National Welfare Fund, but not more than 290 billion rubles.

RDIF was also the first recipient of the fund's funds. In December, a little more than 5 billion rubles were “shipped” to him. for two projects - eliminating the “digital divide” together with Rostelecom and introducing “smart networks” with Rosseti. There are more projects, a RDIF representative told RBC: they have filled the entire quota.

But, apparently, we will have to wait with them. Sanctions and the crisis forced the authorities to reconsider their attitude towards the “stash”. It is not entirely justified to undertake global construction projects during a period of closed capital markets, the federal official admits. Obviously, infrastructure projects are long-term projects, says Vyshkovsky. And given the difficult geopolitical situation, sanctions, and the closure of foreign markets, most of the funds must be kept in liquid form, he urges.

Investment or spending

Almost a quarter of the Reserve Fund was spent during the 2008 crisis, recalls Konstantin Vyshkovsky. At the same time, “a significant amount of funds” from the National Welfare Fund was also spent on fighting the crisis, he notes: “A significant part of these funds is still in illiquid form in the form of deposits in VEB [NWF funds were received by banks in transit through a deposit in VEB].”

Often this was a “momentary plugging of holes,” Alexey Kudrin admitted in an interview with RBC: “Then [in 2008-2009] there was a shock to the world economy, and we had to spend money without thinking twice.”

VEB's illiquid anti-crisis deposits are just the tip of the iceberg. In fact, the rescue of banks cost the National Welfare Fund almost twice as much.

The troubles started with Gazprombank. In 2012, the state bank repaid part of the debt (50 billion rubles) to VEB own shares. Formally, the funds returned to the National Welfare Fund. But the Ministry of Finance returned them to VEB, says Accounts Chamber auditor Mikhail Beshmelnitsyn in a report on the use of funds for the first half of 2012. The state corporation used them to buy 10.2% of Gazprombank.

Last year, convert anti-crisis assistance from the National Wealth Fund into our own preference shares asked other state banks ( also VTB and Rosselkhozbank - only 279 billion rubles).

Private banks also encountered difficulties with the return of funds from the National Welfare Fund. In particular, FC Otkritie (until June 2014 - Nomos Bank) has already asked the authorities to convert 4.9 billion rubles into preferred shares. from the National Welfare Fund. This is how much Nomos Bank received in 2008.

The conversion of funds from the National Welfare Fund into bank shares reduces the size of the anti-crisis deposit at VEB. Because of this, the state corporation required additional capitalization. As a result, in the fall of 2014, VEB received a subordinated deposit from the National Welfare Fund for $6 billion.

And even this did not end the assistance to financial government agencies from the National Welfare Fund. Another 100 billion rubles. VTB received from the fund in the form of subordinated deposits at the end of last year. In total, 250 billion rubles have been allocated from the National Welfare Fund for additional capitalization of banks in the anti-crisis plan. and another 300 billion to VEB. The total limit of funds that can be placed in subordinated deposits of banks (VEB is not formally a bank) is 10% of the National Welfare Fund (RUB 459 billion as of March 1).

Putin bequeathed to invest funds in the National Welfare Fund exclusively on a repayable basis. But for investments from the National Welfare Fund into subordinated instruments, a special regime applies. According to the Budget Code, they are not subject to safety requirements.

Formally, the authorities agreed in advance that these funds were non-refundable, an official from the government’s financial and economic bloc admits: the bank has the right not to return them if the adequacy of its capital falls below a certain level. But the risks are minimal, RBC’s interlocutor assures: “The state cannot and should not allow default or bankruptcy of, for example, VTB as a systemically important bank.”

However, the NWF funds invested in infrastructure may also turn out to be irrevocable, the Accounts Chamber warned in its conclusion on the draft federal budget for 2015-2017. In particular, the auditors raised questions about the procedure for returning funds from the National Welfare Fund invested in shares of Russian Railways. This is how the government plans to finance the construction of the BAM.

The purchase of shares of Russian Railways with funds from the National Welfare Fund was planned initially, a person close to the Ministry of Economic Development knows: an increase in debt would lead to a decrease in the rating of the state monopoly, which means that the cost of market financing could increase. The emergence of new obligations for Russian Railways and their servicing were impossible, a federal official confirms.

Exiting shares is difficult, a federal official now admits: “For example, under what conditions will we be able to sell Russian Railways shares? Only when the state decides to privatize Russian Railways.”

And such a decision will be made based on a number of conditions, and not just under favorable conditions, states RBC’s interlocutor. The authorities have been planning the sale of the state stake in Russian Railways since 2011, but the matter has not moved beyond the plans.

There is a departure from the basic principles of the National Welfare Fund, complains Natalya Akindinova, director of the HSE Development Center. First, funds intended for future retirees began to be invested in investment projects. If they were recouped, then the funds would be returned over time, she argues. But investments in shares may become irrevocable, warns Akindinova.

The funds are given free of charge and without a guarantee of return, a high-ranking federal official agrees on condition of anonymity: in essence, this is an additional capitalization of state-owned companies.

“We shouldn’t even talk about non-refundability of funds!” - Konstantin Vyshkovsky objects, the funds of the National Welfare Fund should be invested only on the terms of repayment and profitability: “This is the norm of the law.” “The return of funds from the National Welfare Fund is an absolute priority,” agrees Deputy Minister of Economic Development Nikolai Podguzov. According to him, the funds of the National Welfare Fund invested in bank shares will be returned through the payment of dividends.

Budget or economics

In 2014, the price of oil fell by almost half. The ruble fell in price against the dollar by the same amount, and the price increase of 11.4% was the highest since the crisis year of 2008 (13.3%). GDP growth slowed to its lowest level since 1999 (with the exception of the crisis year of 2009) and amounted to 0.6%. In 2015, the economy is expected to decline by 3%. Russia is in an extremely difficult situation, Igor Shuvalov said at the economic forum in Davos: “We are entering a more protracted and complex crisis [than in 2008-2009].”

The authorities informed the country that there were problems with the budget shortly after New Year holidays. Lost revenues at an oil price of $50 per barrel will amount to 3 trillion rubles, Siluanov announced at the Gaidar Forum in January. This is exactly the price for oil that the Ministry of Economic Development included in its updated macro forecast for 2015. This is two times lower than before, states Vyshkovsky: “Because of this, a shortage arises.”

“Since incomes are declining, we want to once again reconsider the decisions that were made to invest the funds of the National Welfare Fund,” Siluanov said, speaking in January in the Federation Council: the National Welfare Fund is the same as the Reserve Fund, a source in case of a reduction in the revenue base.

In the current situation, the Reserve Fund (4.72 trillion rubles as of March 1) will be exhausted within two years, predicts Vladimir Nazarov from the Gaidar Institute. 500 billion rubles. was withdrawn from the fund in February. According to the Ministry of Finance’s calculations, this year another 3.2 trillion rubles will be needed to patch budget holes, in 2016 - 1.16 trillion. After the Reserve Fund is exhausted, the National Welfare Fund will have to be spent to cover the budget deficit, Vyshkovsky admits.

The Ministry of Finance is generally against investing any funds from the National Welfare Fund, says a person close to the Ministry of Economic Development: funds may be required for budget insurance and an anti-crisis plan. The Ministry of Finance proposed to freeze decisions on entering projects for six months, an official from the financial and economic bloc clarifies: “To see how the further situation will develop this year.”

The problem is not saving something, argues an employee of one of the state corporations: “Reserves amount to more than 10% of GDP, and with the Central Bank’s currency it is an order of magnitude larger.” It is necessary to avoid a large-scale investment downturn, RBC’s interlocutor urges, “with the ensuing consequences for people, well-being and loss of competitiveness.” As authorities cut back budget expenses, the only thing that remains is the resource of the National Welfare Fund and banks. But banks will not lend to long-term projects on their own, says an employee of the state corporation: only the National Welfare Fund remains.

The projects are not ranked in any way by importance, notes an official from the financial and economic bloc: which of them will contribute greatest contribution in GDP, in employment growth. At the same time, the amounts allocated are “quite large,” admits RBC’s interlocutor: “The risks, of course, are high.”

Prosperity is not for everyone

“At a meeting with the president, the NWF was mothballed,” says an official familiar with its results. In addition to previously issued funds (100 billion rubles for VTB deposit and 5 billion for RDIF projects) they have so far decided to allocate another 525 billion rubles, Ulyukaev said after the meeting.

The President ordered the financing of six projects, as follows from the list of instructions: the Central Ring Road, BAM, the Hanhikivi-1 nuclear power plant in Finland, the elimination of the digital divide, Yamal LNG and the purchase of locomotives for Russian Railways. Thus, the president approved investments of just over 600 billion rubles.

Together with VEB’s subordinated deposits (including those from the anti-crisis plan), investments in bank shares and 5 billion rubles previously invested in RDIF projects, the total amount of NWF funds invested in illiquid assets will exceed a third of its volume as of March 1.

For some projects, investment amounts have been reduced and their priority has changed, two federal officials tell RBC. From the list of instructions it follows that the meeting approved the financing of only the first and fifth sections of the Central Ring Road (the winners of the investment competitions are Stroygazconsulting of Ziyad Manasir and Ruslan Baysarov and Ring Highway LLC, a structure included in the ARKS of Gennady Timchenko, respectively).

A decision was made to finance only those areas that do not involve investment from foreign investors, the official explains: “So far we're talking about about 75 billion rubles. [of the approved 150 billion].” According to him, for now these are all the funds from the National Welfare Fund that the project can count on until 2018: “Afterwards, the foreign policy situation may be different.”

"At two comparatively small project[RDIF] we have already invested funds from the National Welfare Fund, we will need to add another piece,” says Konstantin Vyshkovsky. For the remainder of the limit real projects not yet, he argues, the undrawn amounts can be allocated to projects in some other areas. The same applies to Rosatom, notes Vyshkovsky: “It has one project [the construction of a nuclear power plant in Finland for 150 billion rubles], and we are not discussing others yet.” “The limit is a limit because it is a maximum, not a mandatory share,” he argues.

The fact that the limit on RDIF is actually frozen was revealed by two more federal officials familiar with the results of the meeting.

The only project that was previously approved by the government, but is not mentioned in any way in the instructions, is the development of a coal basin in Tuva, which was initiated by the Tuva Energy Industrial Corporation (TEC) of Ruslan Baysarov. It has been moved, two White House officials say. The project has been worked out 100% and approved at all levels, complains one of them, but the scale is not the same: the “road of life” for Tuva did not qualify for a federal project.

The project was launched personally by Putin. In 2011, he hammered a silver spike into the first link of the Elegest-Kyzyl-Kuragino railway route (part of the TEPK project). A year later, at a major press conference, Putin called the project “complex” but promised to ensure state participation if it was “critical.”

The issue of financing the TEPK project from the National Welfare Fund will still be worked out, Ulyukaev said. In the macro forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the project is still included in the list of applicants for funds from the National Welfare Fund in 2015.

Pension risks

In the next 10-15 years, funds from the National Welfare Fund may be needed to pay pensioners, Alexey Kudrin predicted in 2013. The money invested in projects may not be returned by this time, he warned: “In this way we are reducing our insurance for a difficult period.”

If you invest funds from the National Welfare Fund in large projects with a payback period of 20 years or more, then the money will be frozen for this period, an official of the financial and economic bloc agrees. It will be impossible to use them to support the pension system or anti-crisis purposes.

Kudrin estimated the amount of funds needed to solve problems “related to the demographic gap” at 2-3 trillion rubles. “[If the National Welfare Fund is wasted] we will have to look for other sources of solving this problem... Either raise the retirement age, or raise insurance premiums. There are no other options,” concluded the ex-minister.

On the one hand, the size of the National Welfare Fund has increased due to the devaluation of the ruble. Last year it brought in 1.5 trillion rubles.

On the other hand, the collapse of the ruble provokes inflation, notes Vladimir Nazarov from the Gaidar Institute, and because of this, additional indexation of pensions will be required. In such an uncertain situation, one cannot say that there will be enough reserves, he warns.

One should also remember about the recession in the economy, adds Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist of FC BCS, this will lead to an increase in unemployment: “Contributions to the Pension Fund will inevitably decrease, which will increase its deficit.” The problems of the pension system will only accumulate, Akindinova agrees: “This is a problem that everyone knows about, but puts off until later.”

Be that as it may, starting this year, the authorities began to actively discuss raising the retirement age. This has nothing to do with investing NWF funds in illiquid assets, the federal official claims: the problems of the pension system have been brewing for a long time. Infusions from the National Welfare Fund could delay them for a while, but would not solve them, he is pessimistic.

How are Russian sovereign funds filled and why are they needed?

By budget rule excess oil and gas revenues are sent to the Reserve Fund - until its volume reaches 7% GDP. Half of the income above this limit goes to the National Welfare Fund, and the other half goes to finance infrastructure projects. The Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund replaced the Stabilization Fund in 2008. The main successor to the Stabilization Fund and budget insurance is the Reserve Fund. If world energy prices fall, the government can open this “box” and use the funds to cover the budget deficit. The National Welfare Fund was created to fulfill the state’s obligations to pensioners. It is assumed that the funds of the National Welfare Fund should be used to cover the deficit of the Pension Fund and co-finance voluntary pension savings.

When will the National Welfare Fund end?

What is the National Wealth Fund and what are its prospects?

In recent years, many economists have predicted the complete depletion of Russian reserves. Readers probably remember reports that the Russian Reserve Fund has ceased to exist. Foreign and domestic investors reacted differently to this news background. In this review we will look in detail at:

• what is the National Welfare Fund and how does it affect the investment climate;
• what happened to the Russian Reserve Fund;
• what is the safety margin of the National Welfare Fund and what to expect from it in the future.

What is the National Welfare Fund

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The National Welfare Fund (NWF) is the financial reserve of the Government and a kind of “box” for a rainy day. It consists of investment assets that can be urgently sold in order to fulfill the social obligations of the state in the event of a sharp drop in oil and gas revenues.

Data on the National Welfare Fund is open and updated monthly on.

The fund is formed from two main sources:

• Additional income from the sale of hydrocarbons, above the price prescribed in the budget;
• Income from fund investment management.

IN short term negative is allowed by law financial results from management. Funds from the National Welfare Fund are spent in three areas:

• Financing of the Russian Federation, which allows it to be balanced in conditions of negative demographic dynamics;
• Covering the budget deficit;
• Infrastructure projects financed through VEB.

The composition of the assets of the National Welfare Fund is determined and controlled by the Central Bank. The basis of the portfolio is foreign currency and securities of countries with a high credit rating.

What is affected by the presence and condition of government reserves, why should this be of interest to a private investor?

1. Investment climate, attractiveness of the market for non-residents. Investment funds take into account the availability and size of external debt and the country's financial reserves. Inflow or outflow foreign investment, which now account for about 35% of the total, significantly affects the value of Russian assets.
2. Reserves affect the exchange rate of the ruble against major currencies. For example, they enable the Central Bank, if necessary, to support the ruble with foreign exchange interventions.
3. The viability of the current government, its ability to maintain social stability. This directly affects the dynamics of stock assets, because Russian economy at least 70% consists of the public sector. The private sector, in turn, is also dependent on government policy. Investing in Russian assets, the investor must take into account political risks.

Thus, financial reserves are important not only as a source of public sector salaries and pensions. The health of a fund influences how foreign and domestic investors assess market prospects and risks.

Reserve funds for future generations are often created by governments, which have the following characteristics:

1. The country has large reserves hydrocarbons whose prices are subject to This means that tomorrow the price could fall by half, which would put budget execution in jeopardy.
2. The state has a positive trade account balance due to its export-oriented economy. Examples - China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.
3. The country has a relatively low... Because of this, it does not have the ability to massively attract cheap borrowing from other countries. For example, the United States, which has the highest rating, can borrow almost unlimitedly without worrying about reserves.

The world's largest sovereign wealth fund is Norway's government reserve fund, worth more than a trillion dollars. It receives revenue from the sale of oil and gas. In 2017 alone, he earned St. $130 billion, or 13.7% per annum. Norwegians are not afraid to invest a significant portion of their savings in risky assets - shares of the largest global companies. The fund allows you to provide pensions of $1,745 per month and average salary in the country about 5500 dollars. For each of the 5 million citizens there are $208 thousand in reserves.

Why was the Russian Reserve Fund liquidated?

The Fund for Future Generations that exists today appeared in Russia in 2004. Then it was called the “Stabilization Fund”. Since 2008 it has been divided into two parts:

• The Reserve Fund, which initially received more than 3 trillion rubles;
• National Welfare Fund of 782.8 billion rubles.

Last years Russian budget was in short supply. It reached its highest values ​​in 2016 – 3.5%. The budget deficit in 2017 was 1.6% of GDP or 1.5 trillion in rubles. In January 2018, reports appeared in the media about the depletion of the Reserve Fund (which 10 years ago amounted to more than three trillion rubles). The news was accompanied by scary comments like: “The government has spent all its reserves.” On February 1, the remainder of the Reserve Fund was poured into the National Welfare Fund.

What was the money spent on:

• Mega-constructions, including the Olympics in Sochi;
• Otkritie, B&N Bank, Promsvyazbank, etc.
• Covering VEB's losses;
• Payment of current pensions and stabilization of the Pension Fund;
• Covering the state budget deficit.

The capitalization of the Reserve Fund was dealt a strong blow by currency crisis late 2014 – early 2015 Then the national currency exchange rate fell by half. central bank carried out large-scale currency interventions to support the ruble, which at that time had not yet been allowed to float freely.

Financial indicators of the National Welfare Fund

Reserves are formed at the expense of excess profits of the oil and gas sector, if gas exceeds the established separate law size. According to the budget rule, in different years contributions ranged from 1.9 to 7.7% of the country. First, all income received from the sale of oil above $20 per barrel was transferred to reserves, then $27. The 2018 budget includes a conservative forecast for oil prices – $40 per barrel. For comparison, at the time of writing, Brent oil costs about $78, for the first time since 2014.

The National Welfare Fund has two large segments:

• Liquid part (money in accounts, foreign currency, bonds, gold);
• Illiquid part (investments in long-term projects).

The list of assets in which the National Welfare Fund can invest is determined by a separate law 262-FZ:

• Debt papers foreign countries(USA, Germany, France);
• Bonds and shares Russian companies implementing infrastructure projects;
• Funds in the accounts of VEB, VTB, Gazprombank;
• Ruble deposits with the Central Bank;
• Shares investment funds(RDIF, Russian Foundation direct investment);
• Foreign currency– dollar 45%, euro 45%, British pound 10% as of 01/01/18.

At the same time, according to the law, only two types of assets can have a maximum share of 100% - debt obligations of foreign states and deposits with the Central Bank. In other words, if we assume that American Treasuries are recognized as the only reliable instrument, the National Welfare Fund will consist exclusively of them. Or, conversely, the Central Bank will convert everything into rubles. Both are unlikely.

What are the prospects for the National Welfare Fund in Russia?

The volume of the National Welfare Fund as of May 1, 2018 is 3,962 trillion rubles ($64 billion). The target level of the size of the liquid part of the fund in relation to GDP is 7% (currently less than 4%). Until this value is reached, the funds of the National Welfare Fund will continue to be directed primarily to accumulation, and not to solving socio-economic and budgetary problems. According to accepted rules, 96.5% additional income from the sale of more expensive hydrocarbons will be used for savings purposes. Considering the set of investment instruments that the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have the right to operate, these will mainly be US government debt bonds, foreign currency, . Therefore, the most likely solution for the government in the near future will not be to unseal the money, but to raise taxes. In 2018, the authorities promise to completely stop financing the budget deficit from the National Welfare Fund and direct reserves exclusively to the pensions of future generations. However, these promises are made at high oil prices. It is unknown how they will be implemented when prices drop.

It is obvious that the rate of spending of the National Wealth Fund in 2018 will not be as high as in 2015 and 2016, when the budget was under pressure low prices for oil and sanctions. During 2018, with oil prices above $60, the National Welfare Fund will be rapidly replenished. The Central Bank is systematically increasing the purchase of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance. Currently, about 350 billion rubles are spent monthly for these purposes. In 2018, it is planned to buy at least $46 billion. By the way, this will not allow the ruble to strengthen much, even with expensive oil.

The share of gold is increasing – 18% of all gold and foreign reserves ( gold and foreign exchange reserves) Russia. The Central Bank has gold reserves of $80.4 billion (more than China and fifth in the world). At the same time, the share of securities denominated in foreign currency is decreasing. Plans have already been announced to gradually phase out purchases of American securities (22% or $96 billion). This is due to geopolitical reasons and does not indicate a review of the reliability of the public debt of developed countries.

The question of the advisability of investing in foreign assets remains controversial. In the first quarter of 2018, the placement of NWF funds in foreign exchange instruments turned out to be unprofitable (minus 0.1% or 3.5 billion rubles). Including due to speculative foreign exchange transactions which turned out to be extremely unsuccessful. For example, the dollar was bought at highs in pairs with the euro, and sold after its decline. The second reason for the loss was the temporary effect of the growth of the ruble exchange rate. However, over a longer horizon, investments in the same American national debt more than paid off against the backdrop of a two-fold decline Russian currency in 2014–2015.

The general conclusion is this. Despite sanctions, weak the economic growth and low efficiency public sector, financial system Nothing threatens Russia in the near future. Stability is ensured by low levels government debt and constant replenishment of reserves in the form of the National Welfare Fund.

I invite you to speak out in the comments: how do you imagine the future of the fund, what do you think is right or wrong in public policy regarding reserves. For example, is it worth spending it on investing in domestic economy or save to cover future risks.

Profit to everyone!

As you probably already guessed, we will talk about the International Reserves, which are also called Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, and we will also talk about the funds that were formed during the liquidation of the Stabilization Fund and its division into two parts into the National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund. I think it’s worth talking about them, because today the thesis is being put forward that Russia returns almost all the money received from the sale of oil and gas to the United States through the mechanism of purchasing government bonds of the US Government.

Popular economists propose to nationalize the Central Bank at this very moment and see this as a great benefit for our state. There are also political figures who, under this simple and understandable to the heart common man a slogan about a beautiful life, they call on people to take active street action, talking about the sabotage activities of the Central Bank monetarists. Therefore, I would like to understand all these reserves and understand what is true and what is false in the sweet speeches of economists and politicians.

So, let's start with the funds - the heirs of the Stabilization Fund (National Welfare Fund and Reserve Fund).

The Budget Code of the Russian Federation says the following.

Article 96.9. Reserve fund.

The reserve fund is a part of the federal budget funds that are subject to separate accounting, management and use in order to ensure balance (cover the deficit) of the federal budget. The size as of February 1, 2015 is 5,864.90 billion rubles.

The reserve fund is formed from:

The National Welfare Fund is a part of the federal budget funds that are subject to separate accounting and management in order to ensure co-financing of citizens’ voluntary pension savings Russian Federation, as well as ensuring balance (covering the deficit) of the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation.

The size of the fund is 5,101.83 billion rubles.

The National Welfare Fund is formed from additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget if the accumulated volume of the Reserve Fund reaches its standard value.

The funds of the National Welfare Fund can be placed in foreign currency And the following types financial assets:

Debt obligations of foreign states, foreign government agencies and central banks;
- international debt obligations financial organizations, including those issued by securities;
- deposits and balances bank accounts in banks and credit institutions, as well as in state corporation"Development Bank and foreign economic activity(Vnesheconombank)", including for the purpose of financing self-sustaining infrastructure projects, the list of which is approved by the Government of the Russian Federation;
- deposits and balances on bank accounts in Central Bank Russian Federation;
- debt obligations and shares legal entities, including Russian securities related to the implementation of self-sustaining infrastructure projects, the list of which is approved by the Government of the Russian Federation;
- units (shares of participation) of investment funds.

In order to ensure sufficiency own funds(capital) of the state corporation "Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs (Vnesheconombank)" up to 7 percent of the funds of the National Welfare Fund can be placed on deposits in the specified state corporation.

In order to finance self-sustaining infrastructure projects, the list of which is approved by the Government of the Russian Federation, up to 10 percent of the funds of the National Welfare Fund can be placed on the basis of separate decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation in Russian credit institutions.

In the Presidential Address, V. Putin said: “Since 2013, after the creation of the appropriate management structure, I have been offering part of the funds of the National Welfare Fund - for starters, this could be an amount of up to 100 billion rubles, some believe that at least 100 billion rubles - should be invested in Russian securities. They should be related to the implementation of infrastructure projects."

What is the Central Bank's fault for? What is the country's leadership to blame for? After all, the existing system was formed as a result of two world wars and a geopolitical catastrophe - the collapse of the USSR and the countries of the Soviet camp. And the system is whether we like it or not.

If you want to conduct international trade, buy the dollars in which it is carried out, buy special drawing rights for dollars, join the IMF and others international organizations and follow their rules.

What is the reproach of the Central Bank? We see that revenues from oil sales do not go to the US budget at all, but to the development of the Russian economy, to cover the risks associated with the fall in oil prices (organized by the US).

What is the criticism? They call to abandon the existing system completely, nationalize the Central Bank and launch the issue of the ruble, which is not backed by international reserve currency– US dollar, IMF loan bonds, currencies of other countries.

Let's pretend we did this. The question arises: how will we buy the goods, services, and technologies needed for our economy? For rubles? But, in existing system, to purchase certain goods and services necessary for our economy, agricultural products, equipment and other things necessary for our economy and population, US dollars are needed. After all, today we cannot provide ourselves 100% with everything we need, and we depend on imported goods and services that can be purchased in an existing international system only for dollars.

With some countries, such as China, which need our resources and have the goods we need, we can trade directly, without the dollar. This becomes possible also due to the territorial proximity of China, and high level its state sovereignty.