Modern problems of development and prospects for reforming the world financial system. Modern problems of development and prospects for reforming the world financial system arkhipova violetta valerievna World financial system problems of development

Financial crisis

PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF BREAKING THE WORLD FINANCIAL SYSTEM

M. P. PRIDACHUK, Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Corporate Finance and Banking E-mail: [email protected] Volgograd State University

Based on the analysis and assessment of transformation processes in the world space, the article highlights the main consequences of the financial crisis and its impact on the economy of leading economic powers, including Russia. Cause-and-effect relationships are identified, among which key ones are identified, which are of a systemic nature and reflect the imperfection of economic management mechanisms.

Key words: finance, system, institutions, crisis, mutual funds, insurance.

The consequence of the economic crisis that began in 2008 is a serious transformation of the global financial system. One of the most noticeable consequences of this transformation, which will have an impact on the world economy for a long time to come, will be a significant increase in the budget deficit and public debt of developed countries.

Government stimulation of the economy in the form of direct government spending and tax breaks over the past two years has increased the public debt of the seven most developed countries by about 20% of GDP. It was the government spending of the largest economies in the world, primarily the United States, that caused the rapid growth of stock and commodity markets in 2009. Since February 2009, the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) has carried out a massive buyout of mortgage loans from commercial banks. In three weeks of February, MBS was bought out in the amount of about $ 70 billion, and since March 11, in just a week, such securities have already been bought out for $ 170 billion. And it was in March that the rally in the American stock market began.

the growth of which correlated with the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities with a three-week delay. In addition, not only private investors, but also the central banks of the United States and England, received a significant part of the funds that came to the disposal of governments from the sale of government bonds. As a result of such actions, the Fed and the Bank of England increased their balance sheets to about 20% of GDP, which was last seen during the Great Depression. Institutional investors who sold 30-year mortgages to the Fed also used the proceeds to buy Treasury bonds, allowing the government to finance the US $ 1.5 trillion deficit by placing bonds outside the open market. But due to the lack of significant improvements in the real sector of the economy, the US banking sector fell into a standard “liquidity trap”: at the beginning of March 2010, bank reserves reached a historical maximum of $ 1,254.3 billion, and banks' own reserves - $ 1,115.9 billion dollars, which for the first time in history exceeds the reserve requirement by 20 times. Cash amount in American banks set a new record, reaching $ 1,341.9 billion. At the same time, since the beginning of the crisis, the volume of loans issued has decreased by $ 766 billion. The scale of the latter figure underlines the fact that for the first time in 63 years of observations, the volume of lending has decreased by 10.4% from its maximum, which is about three times the size of any post-World War II credit crunch. In February 2010

unemployment in the US has exceeded 10%. And taking into account those who do not work and are not looking for work, as well as those who could work permanently, but still have to work part-time, real unemployment reached a record 18%. This best characterizes real situation cases in the American economy.

In 2010, the most important factor will be the results of "exit strategies" - the cancellation of the measures by which governments helped national economies to cope with the crisis. The question remains, how stable the growth of economies and financial markets will be without massive government injections. But in any case, the next decade, most developed countries will have to put up with huge national budget deficits. In the coming years, a significant increase in the budget deficit is planned in the USA, Great Britain, and Japan (see table). The British National Institute for Economic and Social Research warns that soaring government debt will inevitably lead to higher taxes, cut budget spending and raise the retirement age.

In Europe, similar difficulties are to some extent observed in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, although each country has its own structural problems. In Spain, the current budget deficit of about 12% is caused primarily by the structural problems of the eurozone, which, with the development of the crisis, increasingly reveal the imperfection of the economic mechanisms of the European Union. In previous years, the influx of foreign capital contributed to the overheating of the Spanish property and labor market. With the deteriorating economic situation and falling incomes of Spanish producers, the last

surplus and costly labor resources began to be reduced. Other countries that have their own currencies have solved the problem of rising unemployment by devaluing the national currency and reducing the costs of local businesses accordingly. But in the situation with the common European currency, this turned out to be impossible, and the government was forced to increase government spending and, accordingly, the budget deficit in order to somehow reduce the tension on the labor market. It should be noted that, of the European countries, only Germany is planning to reduce the budget deficit and achieve a balanced budget by 2016, which may lead to even greater economic contradictions with other eurozone countries with a more negative economic situation.

The growing budget deficit will inevitably lead to an increase in interest rates in these countries. And this growth will correlate, among other things, with the size of the national budget deficit, and in the future all this will almost inevitably lead to serious inflation. However, the world economic leader, the United States of America, had to go through a similar experience in the 1970s, when the Fed was led by the current economic adviser to the President of the United States, Paul Volcker. After almost 10 years of stagnation and rather high inflation, the Fed contributed to the transition to two-digit annual inflation rates in 1978-1980, depreciating in three years national currency by almost 40%, and in general from 1970 to 1980. cumulative dollar inflation amounted to 134%. As a result of energetic actions, the American economy managed to get out of the crisis.

A similar situation will develop in developing countries. According to forecasts of analysts of investment banks, by the end of 2010 a significant

Deficit and external debt of some countries of the world in 2007, 2009-2010 and 2014 (forecast),% of GDP

Country Budget deficit External debt

2009 2010 2014 2007 2009 2010 2014

Australia -4.3 -5.3 -1.1 10 17 23 28

China -3.9 -3.9 -0.8 20 20 22 20

France -8.3 -8.6 -5.2 64 78 85 96

Germany -4.2 -4.6 0 63 79 85 89

India -10.4 -10 -5.7 81 85 86 79

Italy -5.6 -5.6 -5.3 104 116 120 129

Japan -10.5 -10.2 -8 188 219 227 246

Great Britain -11.6 13.2 -6.8 44 69 82 98

USA -12.5 -10 -6.7 62 85 94 108

G-20 -7.9 -6.9 -3.7 62 75 80 86

Developed countries -9.7 -8.7 -5.3 78 99 107 118

Developing countries -5.1 -4.1 -1.3 37 39 40 36

strong growth in rates in Brazil, Turkey, Mexico and India. The only exception to this series will be China, which is likely to hold back the economic growth and the formation of new bubbles in domestic markets through stricter requirements for bank capital.

In Russia, the problem of excessive growth of public debt is not yet present, however, as shown in 2008-2009, the deterioration of the situation in the domestic economy, and, accordingly, in budgetary sphere can develop catastrophically quickly. In addition, domestic enterprises have a very significant amount of corporate debt. In the summer of 2009, after the revival of financial markets, amid a decrease in credit rates and the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar, Russian enterprises returned to active borrowing. According to the Bank of Russia, the amount of non-state debt to foreign creditors from April to October 2009 increased from 420.7 to 441.2 billion dollars. Despite the fact that this is the debt of private companies, the practice of recent years has shown that big business quickly become problems of the state.

The next serious consequence of the crisis is likely to be a serious transformation of the financial industry regulation system. In the United States, after the Great Depression, this area has undergone a number of rather severe restrictions, the Securities Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation have been created. However, since 1972, government interference in the activities of financial institutions began to weaken. This contributed to the emergence of new, more risky, financial instruments, an increase in profits and capitalization of organizations in the financial sector. In the late 1980s. stock financial companies accounted for 14% of the total capitalization of the American stock market, and immediately before the crisis, this figure rose to 23%. It is thanks to the decrease in government regulation that the emergence of complex derivative financial instruments that have played one of the key roles in the current economic crisis has become possible. Due to the absence of legislative restrictions, there was an unlimited growth of individual financial institutions, as a result of which they reached such a size that their bankruptcy meant catastrophic consequences not only for the national, but also for the global financial system. For example, after the collapse of the American investment bank Lehman Brothers

financial institutions around the world wrote off $ 1.7 trillion. It should be noted that the bankruptcy of this bank had the most direct impact on Russian financial institutions. In January 2010, bonds secured by Gazprombank's mortgage loans showed a loss of 18%. These bonds were issued in 2007 by securitizing the pool mortgage loans in the amount of 6.9 billion rubles. The official issuer was a special purpose company (SPV) registered in Luxembourg. Since the mortgage loans were issued by Gazprombank in rubles, and the bonds were denominated in euros, the organizer of the issue hedged the currency risk using a corresponding agreement with Lehman Brothers, in which the exchange rate was fixed at 34.7 rubles. for the euro. In the investment memorandum dedicated to the issue of bonds, the underwriter indicated the possibility of changing currency regulation in the Russian Federation as the main currency risks. However, in reality, the buyers of these bonds suffered the above losses due to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, due to which the counterparty for hedging the currency risk disappeared.

Before the crisis, no one could have imagined a scenario that such large players would disappear from the market. The insurance policy of the world's largest insurance company, AIG, seemed to be quite reliable protection against risk, since almost no one seriously considered the realistic scenario of default by a financial institution of this level. This state of affairs also meant that in the event of serious problems for such giants of the financial market, the state would be forced to take all measures to save them in order to prevent the complete collapse of the entire financial system. And now it can be reasonably assumed that, realizing their extremely important importance for the entire financial market, industry leaders deliberately increased the riskiness of their own strategies and operations. The Commission of the US Congress, investigating the causes of the Great Depression, worked for 4 years, but the results of its activity determined the rules of the game for the entire financial world for many decades. It can be assumed that studying the causes and consequences of the current crisis will have equally important consequences for the financial industry.

However, the most important and acute problem, in the author's opinion, remains that today

day there is no real possibility of changing the financial and economic paradigm, within which the developed countries have existed for the past several decades. In fact, the world is still faced with a choice of two evils: either high inflation to reduce the nominal debt burden and the restoration of lending at pre-crisis levels, which is likely to lead to an even greater crisis in the future, or a serious contraction of lending and, as a consequence - long years of stagnation. Unfortunately, the decision-making by the economic and political authorities is very strongly influenced by not possible consequences current actions in the distant future-

and the short-term conjuncture of the political cycle. The situation is complicated by the fact that if for developed countries stagnation is just a lack of growth in living standards and the maintenance of consumption at the same sufficiently high level, then for Russia stagnation in the world economy may have more sad consequences.

Bibliography

1. Krugman P. The return of the Great Depression? M .: Eksmo. 2009.

2. Soros J. New paradigm of financial markets. M .: Mann, Ivanov and Ferber. 2008.

480 RUB | UAH 150 | $ 7.5 ", MOUSEOFF, FGCOLOR," #FFFFCC ", BGCOLOR," # 393939 ");" onMouseOut = "return nd ();"> Dissertation - 480 rubles, delivery 10 minutes, around the clock, seven days a week

Arkhipova Violetta Valerievna. Contemporary problems development and prospects of reforming the world financial system: dissertation ... candidate of economic sciences: 08.00.14 / Arkhipova Violetta Valerievna; [Place of defense: Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences - Institution of the Russian Academy of Sciences] .- Moscow, 2016.- 250 p.

Introduction

Chapter I. Theoretical foundations of the formation and historical stages of the evolution of the world financial system(MFS) 10

1.1. Theoretical foundations of the development of the global financial system 10

1.2. Characteristics of the main stages of the emergence and evolution of the IFS (1860 - late 1970s) 33

1.3. The process of growing the IFS into a global form of financial interaction 54

Chapter II. Actual problems of the development of the IFs at the stage of financial globalization 73

2.1. The contradictory nature and features of the development of the global financial system 73

2.2. Financial Bubbles and Global Imbalances 104

2.3. The financial crisis at the current stage of development of the IFS 134

Chapter III. Reform Prospects and Long-Term Development Strategy of the IFS 154

3.1. Reform principles and assessment of the initial stage of the global transformation of the IFS

3.2. Development of transformation scenarios and a long-term development strategy for the IFS 179

Conclusion 195

List of used literature 204

Introduction to work

Relevance of the research topic. The role of the world financial system (IFS) in modern conditions of globalization has changed radically.

On the one hand, international financial relations (IFI) throughout history have been of key importance for the world economy, being, in fact, a vital circulatory system of its "organism". On the other hand, at the previous stage of development, the defining attribute of the global financial sector was the maintenance of production and trade chains and cycles, i.e. he played a secondary role in relation to the so-called real sector of the world economy.

In the 1970s. mechanisms are launched for the IFS to enter the next - global - stage of development, during which up to the present day its predominant role in relation to the production and trade sector in the global economy, the ability to self-development and the generation of new financial phenomena: interconnected financial "bubbles" and global imbalances. Thus, in the modern world, the natural processes of systemic financial and economic development are violated (the IFS plays not a secondary, but a primary role). This leads to the fact that functional disorders occur in the global economy as a whole. As a result, in modern conditions, the IFS is acquiring hypertrophied dimensions, internal systemic contradictions are growing, which manifested themselves in full during the long-term global financial and economic crisis (GFEC), the acute phase of which falls on 2007-2009. Among the features of this crisis are its system-wide and large-scale geographical coverage in terms of the number of affected countries.

The crisis has stimulated a reassessment of a number of basic provisions economic theory, increased attention to heterodox directions of economic thought (especially to the hypothesis of financial "fragility" by H.F. Minsky, the theory of financial "bubbles", developed, among others, by C. its destructive impact on the economy), as well as the search for new theoretical approaches to the study of MFOs.

Awareness of the need for changes in the IFS to eliminate the consequences
the global economic and financial crisis and the possibility of its recurrence
led to the launch of the processes of global financial reform, the initiator
which was performed by the "Big Twenty". Reform activities in

supranational level has been actively pursued since 2008 and has affected international standards
banking, the functioning of systemically important financial

institutions, the market of over-the-counter financial instruments and other areas. However, the key problems of financial globalization remain unresolved and continue to destabilize the system.

The theoretical basis of the research and the degree of scientific elaboration of the topic of the dissertation. The theoretical basis of the dissertation is based on the works of leading scientists and researchers of MFOs and specific problems associated with the development of the global financial system.

A special role is played by the works of the classics of general economic theory: M. Allay,
J.M. Keynes, F. Quesnay, N.D. Kondratyev, K. Marx, L. Mises, H.F. Minsky,

W.C. Mitchell, A. Müller-Armack, V. Oiken, F. Perrou, P. Samuelson, M. Friedman, F. Hayek, J. Hicks, I. Schumpeter.

The author also relied on works devoted to the study of various aspects of the functioning of the world financial system. Among the foreign researchers of the analyzed problems are R. Aliber, P. Atkinson, O. Blanchard, C. Borio, E. Brown, J. K. Galbraith, P. Disiatat, R. Cardarelli, C. Kindleberger, G. Kolodko, A. M. Coase, P. Krugman, R. Mandell, K. Medlen, Fr. S. Mishkin, M. Obstfeld, M. Pebro, K. Perez, E. Prasad, K. Reinhart, K. Rogoff, J. Sapir , J. Soros, J. Stiglitz, M. Terrons and others.

The dissertation candidate actively used the developments of domestic researchers:
A. V. Anikina, O. T. Bogomolov, B. E. Brodsky, O. V. Butorina, N. A. Volgina,

M.Yu. Golovnin, V.P. Gutnik, S.S.Dzarasov, T.A. Drobyshevskaya, V.R. Evstigneeva,
G. B. Kleiner, I. S. Korolev, L. N. Krasavina, V. B. Kuvaldin, V. E. Manevich,

A.D.Nekipelov, Yu.Ya.Olsevich, V.M. Polterovich, S.N. Silvestrov, D.V.Smyslov, B.A.Kheifets, A.G. Khudokormov, R.M.Entov and others.

The above researchers managed to comprehensively study the factors and stages of development of the world monetary system, analyze production and financial cycles, assess the causes and consequences of international capital flows, substantiate the emergence of financial "bubbles" and crises in various countries, etc. Despite the importance of the research results obtained by the aforementioned theorists and practitioners, the problems of the development and reform of the global financial system remain relevant. However, questions about the search for universal indicators of the development of the IFS, about the improvement of methods for diagnosing the problems of financial globalization of the 21st century, the analysis of the phenomenon of global financial

Bubble, defining the criteria for an effective global financial

reform, about the development of a theoretical basis for carrying out systemic transformation remain open.

Purpose of the study consists in the search for patterns of development of the IFS, as well as in assessing the prospects for the functioning of the system and the development of specific proposals for its transformation.

to formulate the most complete definition of the world financial system, to highlight the prerequisites and specific historical stages of the emergence and development of the IFS;

identify and compare the characteristic features of the system at each stage of its evolution;

highlight and analyze the problems of the current stage of development of the IFS;

assess the role of the global financial and economic crisis in the history of the IFS;

analyze theoretical and practical approaches to transforming global financial relations and reforming the IFS;

propose their own approaches to reforming the IFS.

Research object the world financial system and its development in the 1980s –2010s stands out. The subject of research became the functioning of the IFS, the problems of its development at the present stage and possible ways of global reform. Chronological framework of the dissertation research cover the period from the 1860s. until 2014, with special attention focused on the period of financial globalization (1990–2014).

Methodological basis of the research In general, it is based on the scheme of positive-normative analysis by D.N. Keynes: a positive assessment of the actual situation is formulated, a fundamentally different normative formation of the ideal takes place (departure from the philosophy of neoliberalism), previously proposed and developed new practical recommendations are again of a normative nature.

The study is based on the principles of formal logic, statistical methods, econometric (including work with time series, the Granger test), network and comparative analysis. The internal logic and history of the development of the IFS are revealed in the dissertation with the help of the basic philosophical laws of Hegel-Engels and the tectology of A.A. Bogdanov. The author of the thesis also draws on modern theories of the world economy and financial macroeconomics. Thus,

a methodological (in a narrow sense) and ontological (as a certain picture of reality) presentation and study of the problem under consideration is proposed.

Empirical base for dissertation research includes statistics provided by the International Monetary Fund and published over the years in the World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Reports. In addition, the author mainly used the historical databases Historical Statistics for Economy by A. Maddison and the Historical Dataset of Institute For International Integration Studies, specially developed Becker-Bloom-Davis indices, financial statistics and reports of the Bank for International Settlements on the functioning of global markets. World Development Indicators Database and Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Data, Bloomberg analytical materials, The Banker ratings and assessments, World Trade Organization statistical compilations International Trade and Market Access Data, data from the annual reports of the McKinsey Global Institute and UNCTAD, UN regional commissions, and also databases of national statistical offices, ministries of finance, systemically important banking and non-bank financial intermediaries, posted on Internet sites and provided on the basis of official requests.

Field of study. The topic of the thesis corresponds to the Passport
the chosen specialty of scientists 08.00.14 - World economy, in
particular paragraph 2 ("Theories of the development of the world economy and international economic
relationship. Analysis and assessment of modern concepts "), p. 4 (" Internationalization
economic life. Globalization of economic activity, its factors, stages,
directions and shapes. Interaction of regional integration and economic
globalization "), p. 9 (" International economic organizations, their role in
regulation of the world economy. Russia's participation in them ”), clause 12 (“ World currency
system, tendencies of its further evolution. Currency zones. World reserve and
regional currencies "), clause 14 (" The world stock market, its mechanisms and role in
development of individual countries and the world economy as a whole. Internationalization
activities of stock exchanges "), clause 15 (" International flows of loan capital,
direct and portfolio investments, problems of their regulation at the national and
supranational levels "), paragraph 24 (" International activity banks,

investment and insurance companies, pension funds and other financial institutions ") passports of this specialty.

The most significant results of the study, reflecting its complex nature, scientific novelty, are summarized and presented in key provisions for the defense:

the development of the IFS takes place in stages and is cyclical; 4 qualitative stages in the development of the IFS can be distinguished;

the current stage of the IFS development is characterized by the growth of internal contradictions, which led to the emergence of a global financial and economic crisis and have not been overcome so far;

the key problems of the current stage of the IFS development include the formation of a global financial bubble and the global spread of “contagion effects”;

The current reforms of the IFS, mainly aimed at improving the legal and regulatory framework at all levels, exercising effective financial supervision, solving the problems of systemically important financial institutions and increasing the transparency of financial markets and related international assessments, did not lead to the elimination of threats to financial globalization;

successful reform of the IFS should be based on the principles of gradualism and heterodox theoretical foundations, aimed at “removing” the global nature of crises and preserving the IFS's serving role in the global economy.

Scientific novelty of the dissertation lies in the fact that this work is one of the first attempts to identify the key features of the functioning of the IFS during the global financial and economic crisis, which the author dates from 2007 to the present, in the context of its continuous formation and transformation. In particular, in work:

1. An integrated approach is applied to the definition and identification of historical

periods of the IFS development, based on 1) the author's reading of the philosophical tectological concept of A.A. Bogdanov, 2) the analysis of the dynamics of the Obstfeld-Taylor international capital mobility index and 3) the generally accepted chronology of the transformation of the world monetary system. Bogdanov's tectology is used in the work for the methodological substantiation of the periodization of the development of the MFS and for determining the objective factors of the systemic formation of modern MFOs. As a result, 4 qualitative stages and 8 sub-periods in the development of the IFS were identified.

A new classification of the types of contagion effects existing in the global financial system (GFS) is proposed. The author highlights the global intermarket effect associated with the "infection" of systemic components (global financial markets); the global network effect, reflecting the transfer of financial problems from some systemically important financial intermediaries to others (thus, the destabilizing role of large financial speculators, deliberately unbalancing the IFS in order to obtain short-term profits) is emphasized; cross-country "wave" and "monsoon" effects arising from the transmission of financial "infection" in the first case from developed countries to developed countries, in the second case - from developed countries to developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The interpretation of the "monsoon" effect has been expanded beyond the purely foreign trade aspects.

Based on a variation of the schematic network analysis and the Granger econometric test, a study of the concentration observed in the interaction of banking and non-bank financial intermediaries was carried out, and the elements of the system were identified that are areas of increased financial risks (global credit and derivatives markets).

The analysis of the factors that determined the formation of the system-wide risk made it possible to determine the specific sources of its concentration ("nodes" of the network of global financial players, separate spheres). In addition, the paradoxical nature of the activities of large financial intermediaries was revealed, which artificially create various risks (including systemic ones) as a result of their own functioning, and at the same time, trying to reduce them, form a system of excess global insurance (reinsurance).

The systemic relationship between various types of financial bubbles is analyzed and evidence of the existence of a global financial bubble (GFP) as an object of generation of the IFS at the stage of the global stage of its development, the result of the process of international movement of financial capital under the influence of negative financial effects and the state of its increased concentration ... It is shown that GFP is a single set of both systemically connected geographic (with the allocation of affected regions and countries) and transnational agency “bubbles” (mainly global banks-“bubbles” with artificially increased assets), and their structural chains passing through global financial markets. The period of the origin of HFP (1980s) is revealed,

features of this financial phenomenon, which is a confirmation of the systemic
self-development and one of the consequences of the aggravation of system-wide risks, identified
causal relationships between the global financial bubble and GFEC.
6. A comprehensive assessment of the results carried out for the period 2008–2013 is proposed.

global financial reforms from the standpoint of a heterodox gradualist approach and
tasks of ensuring sustainable development of global and national economic
systems. A "tree" of scenarios for the system transformation of the IFS was built and
specific practical recommendations for its successful reform. Proposed
a comprehensive algorithm for transforming the IFS: 1) fundamental reforms that require
global cooperation (creation of a common theoretical and ideological setting, oversight
regulatory global network, systems of adaptation measures,
transformations in the tax and currency spheres); 2) supporting radical reforms
supportive measures and ancillary measures that go beyond global finance
transformations based on international initiatives (highlighted and
the measures recommended by the author for continuation, initiated by the "Big
Twenty "); 3) transformational changes implemented in regional and
national levels (solving internal problems and transplanting international
standards). The specifics of the strategy of global financial
reforms is their emphasis on the financial rather than on the monetary sphere.

Scientific and theoretical significance research consists in

improvement of general scientific ideas about the development and reform of the IFS, as well as the use of non-standard theoretical approaches to its analysis. Its practical use the results of this study can be found in the field of activities of international monetary and financial organizations, central banks of various countries (including the Russian Federation), transnational companies, financial institutions - commercial banks, hedge funds, stock exchanges, etc., actively working on world financial markets. The author's ideas, developments, methods and research results outlined in the dissertation were successfully applied in the course of industrial practice in the Analytical Department of the Office of the Federation Council (2012) and in the work of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (2013-2014). The main provisions of the dissertation research can be used when reading courses "International monetary and financial and credit relations", "World economy", "Applied macroeconomics", "Philosophy and methodology of economic science" in universities.

Approbation of dissertation work took place in the form of participation in scientific conferences and seminars, writing analytical notes and reports for the Center for the Problems of Globalization of the Russian Economy of the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The results of the study were used to report on the topics of the state assignment “The impact of external factors on the monetary and foreign exchange spheres of the Russian economy” (2012) and “Instability of the world economy and its impact on Russia” (2013–2014). The issues considered in the dissertation were raised by the author in the framework of reports at the I and II Russian economic congresses (Moscow-2009, Suzdal-2013); the international conference of students, graduate students and young scientists "Lomonosov" (Moscow, Lomonosov Moscow State University 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013); 2nd student conference “World Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Russian Economy” (Moscow, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2009); 10th annual Russian-German seminar (Germany, Frankfurt am Main, Goethe University, 2009); a seminar for young scientists on international economic and political research (Moscow, IE RAS, 2011); conference of young scientists "Russia and the world: search for new models of economic development" (Moscow, IE RAS, 2011); seminars “Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance” (Switzerland, Geneva, University of Geneva, 2011); I scientific and educational conference "Economics of Energy as a Research Area: Frontiers and Everyday Reality" (Moscow, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2012); conference of young scientists "World economy: modern challenges and their impact on Russia" (Moscow, IE RAS, 2013); III International Youth Forum of Financiers (Moscow, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 2013).

Publications. Based on the results of the dissertation research, 7 scientific papers with a total volume of 4.2 pp were published, including 4 articles with a total volume of 2.7 pp. published in journals recommended by the Higher Attestation Commission of the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia.

The structure and scope of the thesis. The thesis consists of an introduction, 3 chapters, a conclusion, a bibliography, an appendix. The volume of the main text of the work consists of 203 pages, the list of references contains 325 items. The main text of the thesis includes 5 tables and 28 figures.

The process of growing the IFS into a global form of financial interaction

The world financial system (IFS) is a multifaceted and complex object of study, which explains the richness and variety of theoretical and practical works in this area of ​​research. It is not surprising that there are different approaches to its definition. Firstly, a number of scientists in their interpretations of the IFS emphasize international monetary, credit and financial relations as the basis of the system, and also formulate a general idea of ​​the object of scientific analysis through disclosing the essence of its basic elements - various international financial markets1. Secondly, some researchers identify the IFS with a certain form of organization of international financial relations within the framework of special agreed principles and focus on the institutions that are the key links of the system2. Finally, in some works, the authors refer mainly to a constituent element of the IFS structure, namely to the world monetary system, i.e. the definition of the object of research is based on the interaction and mutual influence of its components3. At the same time, the listed approaches are united by the idea that the IFS is a special sphere and at the same time a part of the world economy, playing a key system-forming and at the same time serving role in the processes market economy... Note that the first two definitions of the IFS formulated in the theory, in our opinion, are incomplete and reflect only some aspects of the functioning of the system. The latter definition is also not taken as a basis in our study, since the identification of the MFS with one of the links of its structure contradicts the logic of the existence and development of the system. In the second part of this chapter, we present the most acceptable and extended interpretation of the object of research.

Analysis of the conceptual framework of the IFS is extremely important for understanding the general logic and direction of the system's development, for conducting a clear, reasonable periodization of it. life cycle, identifying the problems of systemic financial evolution and, finally, to determine the nature and methodology of future reforms. In order to accomplish this task, it seems appropriate to combine the key theories on the IFS into three large blocks. The first contains the ideological framework of international financial relations, the main principles of the construction of which are set out in the works of the classics of various areas of economic science. The second group covers basic macroeconomic and financial concepts. The third block includes the main theories of international capital flows. Thus, the proposed scheme for reviewing an array of theoretical works helps to trace the development of economic doctrines about the IFS in dynamics, allows you to display the breadth and richness of the "palette" of scientific views on the problem under study, while maintaining the depth of analysis.

In the first block, as representative theories of the IFS, we include such modern currents of economic thought, such as neoliberalism, institutionalism, dirigism, post-Keynesianism and Western Marxism. These theoretical directions are designed not only to explain the logic of the historical development of the world economy as a whole and the IFS as its important component, but also to determine the balance of forces in the system, i.e. to identify the specific roles of various institutions in the course of strategic decision-making.

First of all, each of these trends offers its own interpretation of the capitalist stage of development of national and international socio-economic and financial relations in the context of their history. According to neoliberalism, this is an almost ideal form of interaction between economic entities, the central category of which is “freedom”. Institutionalists, dirigistes and post-Keynesians are quite close in their characteristics of capitalism as a system of financial and economic relations, passing through several stages of its formation from commercial to administrative through entrepreneurial and financial (banking) and having certain and, most importantly, corrective and / or removable drawbacks. The position of the Marxists is absolutely opposite to the two points of view listed above: they are convinced that the capitalist formation, which creates disproportions in the economy, is, in principle, unable to bring the system to the Pareto optimum, since under its conditions it is impossible to improve the position of the working class. Thus, from the point of view of the development of the IFS, neoliberalism stands for a kind of statics of financial relations, Marxism turns towards revolutionary "cleansing" changes, while the other three related currents advocate systemic evolution and the idea of ​​increasing the welfare of society at all levels of financial interactions.

In determining the balance of power within the framework of the ISF and the world economy as a whole, there are also clear differences among the representative theories of the first block. First, neoliberalism gives the main role in the system to the market as an internal natural self-regulating “order” 4. Thus, the state is assigned a clearly defined place5. In the understanding of ordoliberalists, it is the installer of the "constitution" in the form of the rules of the game for the subjects of financial and economic activity; in the concept of social market economy - a kind of prime mover in relation to the market environment6; for monetarists - a subject with an innate right to make mistakes in the policy of regulating the financial sector, constantly in need of some guidance (guidelines such as the "monetary rule") 7. Thus, the ideas of freeing market forces, removing barriers to the movement of capital and increasing its mobility, multilateral liberalization, etc. - all this is a priori useful for the IFS and should increase the efficiency of its functioning.

Secondly, institutionalists in the global financial system rely on certain institutions and “institutions”. Representatives of this economic school opposed to the "mainstream" are pessimistic about the prospects and results of the independent development of financial markets, thereby justifying the need for the presence and inevitability of the expansion and deepening of "balancing" government intervention in the processes taking place within the global and national financial systems8. In the context of our topic, the most interesting is the empirical-statistical theory of W.C. Mitchell, set forth in the 1913 work "Economic Cycles". The logic of the history of the cyclical development of the economy is built by the author on the basis of the processes occurring in the sphere of circulation. The financial system of all levels, according to Mitchell, is the most effective form of organizing public relations. At the same time, the dual nature of financial institutions ( valuable papers, stock exchanges, banks): they are capable of both increasing the well-being of the individual and the country, and disrupting the natural balance of their existence. Within the framework of the presented interpretation, the IFS acts simultaneously both as a destructive element and as the basis of the world economy9.

Thirdly, dirigism is not only a doctrine and an "offshoot" according to one version of traditional institutionalism, according to another - neo-Keynesianism, but also a specific type public policy... In other words, this direction of theoretical thought is rather difficult to separate from practice, while it presupposes active, close private and public, as well as supranational financial and economic interaction. The main instrument of dirigisme is selective policy and indicative planning, and its main idea is the need for public control over large investments and the coordination of investment volumes and prices in order to achieve balanced economic growth10.

Fourth, post-Keynesians are divided in their views on the distribution of roles in the financial system. Their "right" representatives insist on strictly limited participation and "dosed" state intervention in the sphere of circulation; the left "wing" deepens this idea to the rank of obligatory planning (in the style of dirigism) of the main financial macroeconomic indicators. However, it is important to note the following: in both cases, it is assumed that the market freedom of development of the IFS should be implemented as much as possible, the regulation of the system should be carried out to the extent that it is necessary at each moment of time, and control over its functioning is a continuous function of the state. and supranational institutions11.

Finally, the Marxists, following their traditions, determine the balance of power in the financial and economic system through classes. R. Hilferding, in his work devoted to the analysis of the latest phase of the development of capitalism, discusses the emergence of powerful capitalist groupings that united all strata of the propertied class to serve financial capital, which controls almost all spheres of social activity, including production processes. Financial capital expands and begins to dominate the world thanks to the principles of laissez-faire, at the same time it needs a strong state that will protect it within national economy and will facilitate the conquest of foreign markets. Entering a more mature phase of its development, finance capital is revealed at the highest stage of concentration of economic and political power in the hands of tycoons.

Financial bubbles and global imbalances

Let's start our analysis by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of GFS. The benefits of financial globalization highlighted in theoretical works150 can be conditionally classified into global and national ones, and their criterion can be the achievement of general key goals of economic development, for example, an increase in GDP, sustainable economic growth. At the top of Fig. 3 presents both the traditional global benefits of financial globalization, leading directly to the implementation of the tasks set, and additional positive qualities that are potentially open to any state.

The first group of advantages of the GFS includes, first of all, a qualitative breakthrough in the development of global financial markets (below we consider the “reverse” side of this process). Opportunities to improve the international allocation and use of financial resources are expanding as financial liberalization and cross-border capital flows are expected to effectively transform savings into investment. In addition, direct channels for the dissemination of benefits “feed” indirect ones. All other things being equal, the rule of mutual advantage (or co-directional movement) should apply: capital-deficient countries will have access to financial resources, and capital-surplus states - high factor income. The downside of profit maximization is expected to be an overall reduction in capital costs, realized largely through international diversification of financial risks.

Fr.Mishkin, actively calling for the early use of the entire block of benefits from the GFS processes, and skeptical about such an idea without a comprehensive balanced analysis, J. Stiglitz agree that the traditional advantages of financial globalization should include an increase in the level of competition in the system: business entities developed countries compete for market niches not only among themselves, but also with players from developing countries151. In a review of theoretical works on this issue, M.Yu. Golovnin notes that the growth of competition has become one of the key factors that influenced the reduction in the global and global inflation rate152 (see Appendix, Fig. 9).

Indeed, during the 1980s - mid. 1990s the average annual world inflation rate fluctuated within 15-35%, but in 2000-2013. the value of this macroeconomic indicator did not exceed 6%.

In our opinion, the list of traditional benefits of GFS, presented in Fig. 3, should be supplemented with several positive effects of international capital movement, to which we refer: the spillover effect, associated with the development of fundamental inter-market financial relations based on the interaction of financial players, both at the level of the GFS components and in the intercountry (geographic) ) financial space. A characteristic feature of this financial effect is that it proceeds from the fundamental features of the movement of financial capital, which theoretically, based on rational economic prerequisites, should be invested in the most promising and profitable projects. For example, as noted earlier, the evolution of the financial innovation market (especially its American and European segments) attracted and concentrated huge financial resources in this area of ​​the SFS. integration or transformational spillover effect, reflecting the qualitative and quantitative interaction of the real and financial sectors of the world and global economy. As emphasized earlier, in fact, the IFS at each stage of its development is the most dynamic and progressive subsystem of the general economic system, therefore, changes in international financial relations one way or another, instantly or over time, entail transformation processes in international production and trade, which, in turn, launches a new round of financial evolution. Integration processes in European countries can be cited as a specific example: monetary and financial integration strengthens and strengthens the interaction of national economic systems and contributes to their successful adaptation within the GFS and the global economy as a whole. monsoonal effect, reflecting the impact of positive financial changes in developed countries on national financial systems, balance of payments and other economic indicators of developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The "monsoons" with positive economic consequences, for example, include an increase in the degree of participation of developing countries and countries with economies in transition in world and global financial and economic processes. As an example, we will cite several facts related to the evolution of the MRI. It was the world stock market during the period of the first and second “waves” of globalization that became an important means of financial communication that brought the countries of the world closer together (see paragraphs 1.2 and 1.3).

The second group of advantages of financial globalization includes signaling or the expression of a country’s readiness to enter global financial markets, the development of national financial markets, the improvement of financial and legal institutions, and the creation of a favorable investment regime that also allows attracting new technologies. In addition, competition between domestic and foreign financial intermediaries stimulates the design of innovative financial products. Financial globalization contributes to the further development of specialization, the deepening of the international division of labor, the processes of which were analyzed in detail by A. Smith and K. Marx. The interaction of financial and real sectors the global economy leads to the fact that the rationalization of production is already taking place on a global scale, and economic integration is improving and deepening.

J. Stiglitz adds to the conditional benefits of financial globalization the presence of an opportunity (at least in many respects limited) for various groups of states to use global financial markets as sources of financial resources and diversification of financial portfolios. Fr.Mishkin in his work expands the boundaries of the benefits of the GFS for developing countries and introduces the development of property rights and the evolution of financial institutions into this group of benefits of financial globalization, which, in his opinion, will accelerate the achievement of the goals set in the manufacturing sector of the economy153.

The existence of a number of the above advantages of financial globalization is partially confirmed in practice. Here are some specific examples. Financial globalization as a new stage in the development of the IFS and its elements is characterized through such categories as "death of distances", operations "at arm's length" and super-close cooperation, which is not only a reflection of the presence of trust in society (the spiritual side), but allows to reduce transactional costs, increase the quality and speed of customer service (material component). These processes have manifested themselves, among other things, in the work of universal financial companies that generate synergistic effects (for example, in the form of cross-financing or the provision of expanded service packages). The creation of a special accessible information Internet space, the corresponding technical and technological installations for the implementation of various financial transactions and means of communication, overcoming language barriers (universalization of the English language) contribute to the further development of financial globalization.

The financial crisis at the current stage of the IFS development

The global financial and economic crisis, the most acute phase of which fell on 2007-2009, became an important event in the history of the SFS. Firstly, this phenomenon warns that the system in terms of A.A. Bogdanov independently found some internal “solution” of the contradictions accumulated in it. Secondly, after the crisis, the object of research necessarily ceases to be what it used to be, and it is important to understand what character HPEC has - constructive or destructive - and highlight its features. Finally, a systemic crisis always affects both the financial sphere and the economy as a whole, so it is important to give a comprehensive assessment of the consequences of this event.

We have already given a theoretical and practical analysis of the nature and various types of financial crises above. This section will present the results of a study devoted to the specific causes and timing of the emergence of multiple (i.e., affecting several financial areas, see paragraphs 1.1 and 2.2) of the global financial crisis, the channels of its spread, identification of its distinctive properties and consequences. In 2008, it reaches a general economic scale, and this phase process is associated with a reduction in global, regional and national indicators of production, trade and an increase in unemployment (see Fig. 21-22 and Appendix, Fig. 30).

The conclusions presented above, made on the basis of studying the features of the development of the global financial system, make it possible to form the following complex block of reasons for the emergence of HFEC: systemic fundamental problems of financial globalization, including the financial phenomenon of HFP and global imbalances; II. characteristic features of the US economy and financial system as a geographical starting point of the crisis; III. the specifics of the development of the "infected" countries (approximately 150 states).

Since the first group of reasons for GFEC was considered in detail by us in the previous parts of this chapter, let us dwell in more detail on the remaining blocks. The second circle of reasons is directly related to system-wide threats, but if the first block analyzes the very structure of the geographic structure of the GFS according to the “core-periphery” type, then in this case the following specific characteristics of the US economy, which has found itself in the position of a global financial leader, are analyzed: 1) historical- geographical, allocated on the basis of the concept of "dependence on a common path." The peculiarities of the territorial position in many ways allowed the United States not only to derive financial and economic benefits from the events of the two world wars, but also to take the documented leadership positions in the ISF. In addition, earlier in the 19th century. financial and industrial-industrial achievements of the United States were associated with the strengthening and development of capitalist relations, free from obsolete feudal forms and attitudes. Thus, throughout the history of the development of the United States up to GFEC, the prerequisites were created for the successful transplantation of borrowed progressive financial institutions, and most importantly for the design and "cultivation" of new types of them269. 2) innovative and technological. Continuing the previous line of reasoning, here are some examples of newly created and / or improved financial institutions and operating algorithms in the United States: mortgage agencies the secondary market, outwardly aimed at realizing the "American dream" of justice and well-being; perfecting the technology of concluding financial transactions based on the arm's length principle 270, i. e. when financial players carry out mutual or unilateral transactions without having special knowledge about each other. This business approach is more dependent on the availability of information resources, so the prevalence of the practice of its use is a rather risky choice compared to the strategy of direct long-term interaction of counterparties; encouraging the “mutation” of financial derivatives and participating in the complication of structured financial assets through the implementation of a “derivatives from derivatives” scheme 271 (CDO squared and cubed). This served as another factor in the "revolt of financial innovations" (drawing a parallel between modern reality and the "revolt of machines against their creators" described in "Capital" by Karl Marx). 3) neoliberal in a philosophical form "freedom from". The reliance on the efficiency of financial markets made it possible to implement the following series of programs in practice: deregulation of the national financial system, expressed in the form of minimizing the importance of the state in the economy. A feature of American reality is that the state redistributes about 31% of GDP through its budget, and the rest 69% operates on the market through financial institutions272.

Evolutionary "chain" of savings institutions and mortgage institutions from construction savings banks to agencies of the secondary market for mortgage lending can be cited as evidence of this thesis. One of the legislative changes is the transition from the Glass-Steagall law to the Gremma-Litch-Bliley act (see chapter 1). Giving to investment banks special permission The Securities Commission (SEC) manage risk based on the capital requirement from the “voluntary regulation program of the 5 largest investment banks”. Until 2004 financial transactions controlled by strict rules allowing for a ratio of liabilities to net assets of 15: 1. As part of the new established algorithm, investment banks can agree to the consolidated supervision of the SEC on more flexible terms, which allowed in some cases to increase the above ratio to 40: 1273. the role of financial markets in the country turned out to be extremely exaggerated. According to Yu.Ya. Olsevich, this, in turn, contributes to the distortion of the system of motivation and incentives for business entities274. creation of the world's largest national financial system and taking a leadership position in global financial markets. The previous sections of the dissertation have already provided data on the status of the United States and its financial "hawks" in various components and structural links of the SFS. In addition, we note that only one presence in the pre-crisis 2000s. working in a close "bundle" of global financial intermediaries - five investment giants Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merril Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, two financial conglomerates Citigroup and JP Morgan, three key insurance players AIG, MBIA, AMBAC, as well as rating agencies Moody s, S&P, Fitch - provided the United States with a central position in the global financial hybrid network.

In conclusion of the analysis of the second block of reasons for GFEC, we note that the functioning of the central US financial sector for the GFS is inherently an extreme in the implementation of the Anglo-Saxon model of economic development.

Following the tradition of F. Quesnay and T. Hobbes, it is advisable to draw an analogy between the financial system and the circulatory system of a living organism, through which blood carries both useful nutrients and infection. Let us analyze the channels of the spread of the global crisis in the SFS to developed and developing states and countries with economies in transition, both on the basis of general trends and on specific representative examples.

Development of transformation scenarios and a long-term development strategy for the IFS

Thus, in our proposed system, both the elements and the structure are improved. In addition, key functions are also distributed: the reformer transforms, the regulators supervise and correct, the market orients the subjects of financial activity.

The auxiliary ones include the changes aimed at improving intermediate plans for transforming specific segments, eliminating possible mistakes of the global reformer and "improving" the system. The initiatives being implemented by the G-20, which we outlined above in the form of the main points from the program of global financial transformations, are also included in this kind of changes and are recommended for continuation (except for those that have already been replaced by the author within the framework of the presented reasoning). This type of reform takes the longest segments of the transformation vector. All economic actors should be able to adapt to the set course and conditions, and the reformer will retain the right and time to make the necessary, "supporting" changes.

The accompanying transformations reflect the multi-sphere nature of the ongoing activities and are associated with a set of measures to address a number of global socio-economic problems at the stage of vibration stabilization. Reforms that go beyond the framework of international financial relations - social, anti-corruption, environmental, etc. - will fit very organically into this plan due to the transformational effect of overflow. Only with the progressive reform of the SFS will a further increase in the range of transformations in the global economy arise and spread harmoniously and in a timely manner. Here is a specific example: tightening control and regulation in the banking sector and in the areas of operating with financial derivatives requires the appropriate intervention of officials at the global, regional and national levels, the introduction of effective anti-corruption measures in this situation will allow the necessary changes to be carried out more effectively.

Thus, in essence, global reforms of the triple structure are proposed: 1) fundamental ingression processes requiring global cooperation; 2) auxiliary and concomitant transformations based on international initiatives (a number of events of the G-20 and world monetary and financial organizations); 3) changes implemented at regional and national levels (solving internal problems and embedding international standards into legislative norms and our own practice). In the course of their implementation, it is supposed to eliminate the alienation between progress in the financial sphere, scientific and technical progress (in the manufacturing sector) and the spiritual development of the individual (gaining a deep philosophical meaning of work and existence). The reformer should avoid the waste of missed opportunities that exacerbate the development of a pessimistic outlook.

When the system enters the trajectory of balanced sustainable evolutionary development, growth of social welfare and further convergence of economic systems, a policy of stability comes into force, and at the same time, the activity of a global reformer does not stop. Plans and resources are being prepared as part of the O-IFS progress strategy and the global economy as a whole.

Is the probability of the implementation of the presented algorithm of global reforms high from the point of view of the development of the global economy? In our opinion, the answer to this question should be sought in modern interpretations of the theory of long cycles by ND Kondrat'ev. Researcher K. Perez identifies 5 evolutionary "waves", each of which is characterized by its own historical sequence of events inherent in the nature of capitalism (for example, according to this theory, a technological revolution is replaced by a financial "bubble", the "collapse" of which turns into a crisis, and then a period of " golden time "370). The world is now at the 3rd stage of the 5th cycle, and an important conclusion must be drawn: historically, an opportunity has been given for the onset of the next "golden time" for the development of the world economy, subject to the effective reform of the IFS and the rational use of all types of resources for this purpose. It is necessary to use this chance correctly and on time, competently carrying out the necessary transformational "injections".

The plan developed by us is calculated and recommended for implementation within 20 years: the implementation of the stabilization and vibration stabilization policy should take on average about 10-15 years, the stability policy - about 5 years. In our opinion, a long-term strategy for the progress of the O-IFS and the global economy as a whole, in our opinion, should be drawn up for a 20-25-year perspective with the inclusion of 5-7-year intermediate and adjustable plans for systemic development. The strategy of gradualism for the global financial transformation in our case is expressed, first of all, in the consistency, adaptability and adaptive characteristics of the proposed reforms.

Let us summarize the results of creating a long-term strategy in the field of IFS development and assess the quality of the general vector of global transformations proposed by us in accordance with the SWOT analysis methodology, which is an important mechanism for the preparation and implementation of strategic plans in the field of marketing and management. With regard to our topic, it will be associated with a step-by-step study of the strengths and weaknesses of the global reform strategy, their opportunities (Opportunities) and threats (Threats) for the IFS, as well as an assessment of options for turning weaknesses into strengths, and challenges into new perspectives. The results of the SWOT analysis are placed in a special matrix (see Fig. 28), with its help it is technically convenient to draw appropriate conclusions.

At the first step, we evaluate the advantages of the global reforms proposed above. Our algorithm combines dynamism and planning. A special head institution in the organizational hierarchy is built into the system, transformations are taking place not only in the financial architecture, but also in the SFS as a whole. Ingression is cardinal.

At the second step, we identify the possibilities of systemic transformation. First of all, global reforms do not start from scratch: we continue to develop useful initiatives, leave effective institutions and get rid of the causes of SPEC. A global reformer and relevant structures at all levels can attract in the necessary and sufficient amount of resources and factors to carry out systemic transformation. The elimination of the GFS problems and the controllability of the processes will ensure the crisis-free development of the research object.

At the third step, we determine the weaknesses of the proposed transformations. These include the disadvantages inherent in model constructions and strategies: theoreticalness, an attempt to program processes (while circumstances play a large role in the life line of the system), a high degree of rationalization and the presence of a number of conditions / assumptions.

Step 4 identifies threats that can impede global reform. First, they include the force of resistance with which some groups of business entities will resist innovations, possibly related to costs or loss of profit for them (the management team of F-TNK, corrupt structures of various levels, participants in shadow banking, etc. .). Secondly, this is a different kind of delay in the timing of the coordination and implementation of certain ingression processes. Finally, let us especially note the still inexhaustible conflict potential of globalization.

The world financial system, as well as national financial systems, including the Russian financial system, is currently experiencing a severe crisis, which has caused a wave of mistrust in the financial system and in public financial management.

Economists point to three main reasons for the crisis: first, errors in government regulation; secondly, the cyclical development of the economy; third, the failure of the existing financial system.

Since the financial crisis has affected almost all countries that are somehow linked by economic relations with each other, there is a need to consider the world financial system as an institutional or structural-legal form of organizing financial relations. The world financial market presupposes the existence of a financial system, which is a set of different spheres financial relations, in the process of which monetary resources are formed and used.

One of the priority directions in the formation of the financial system is to strengthen its role in the fight against the financial and economic crisis. At the same time, the need to reform the financial system seems to be the basic condition for the successful construction of civilized market relations in the country.

The term "financial system" is currently one of the most widespread and often used in regulatory legal acts, court decisions, mass media, in speeches of the head of state, prime minister of the Russian Federation. However, it does not have a legislative definition, and there is no single conceptual approach of scientists to the development of the definition under consideration. It should also be noted its complex nature, since the following aspects can be distinguished: historical, political, economic and legal.

It should also be emphasized that the increase in the number of normative legal acts aimed at regulating relations in the financial system, unfortunately, is haphazard, momentary. At the same time, we can conclude that this term is most often used in legislation during periods of crisis.

V.V. Putin emphasizes that Russia and the United States must work together to improve the global financial system. In his opinion, the "stability of the global financial system" can be ensured "only by making its architecture complementary and based on a diverse system of regional reserve currencies and financial centers." Basically, scientists consider the financial system as a set of links (elements, parts, i.e. its components) or as a set of specific bodies. So, defining the financial system in the economic aspect as "the internal structure of finance, a set of interconnected links (institutions) included in them, each of which represents a specific group of financial relations", N.I. Khimicheva notes that the consideration of this term as a system of financial bodies "leads to the erosion of the subject of study, its ambiguity." A.I. Khudyakov.

EAT. Ashmarina considers the financial system from several sides: on the one hand, as a set of trust funds, on the other, a complex of social relations, both associated with the formation, distribution and use of these funds, and accompanying this process, as well as a set of bodies participating in financial activities of the state related to the emission, education, accumulation, distribution and use of funds.

It should be noted that the controversial nature of the definition of the term "financial system" is directly related to the subject financial law, with delineating its boundaries, with such categories of financial law as financial activities, financial discipline.

The complex nature of the term "financial system" is determined by the fact that this concept should be the object of scientific research of scientists-economists, financiers, administrators, therefore, the main task when considering this term is to highlight the range of social relations falling within the scope of the norms of such industries Russian law as financial, administrative. The urgency of problems in the field of the international financial system is due to the global financial and economic crisis and is associated with the need to strengthen its architecture in order to prevent similar shocks in the future, to prevent further spread of the crisis.

The most controversial issue is the definition of the financial system in the legal aspect.

S.V. Zapolsky emphasizes that in order to define the financial system as a legal category, it is necessary to have a legal definition or a legal concept in which this concept has a legal meaning, therefore he defines the financial system as "a collective phenomenon and, thus, having no legal meaning of its own." Note that legal concepts (categories) are formulated in the form of definitions that briefly reveal the essence of legal phenomena.

Particular attention should be paid to the principles of building a financial system.

N.I. Khimicheva notes that the functioning of the financial system as a whole is characterized by certain principles that are enshrined in legislation. At the same time, the well-known scientist emphasizes that their identification and "clear formation in the norms of law, primarily in the general part of financial as its principles, would be essential for determining the financial activity of the state in accordance with the constitutional foundations."

System requirements, principles of building a financial system: legality, publicity, strict financial reporting, fulfillment of financial obligations, fulfillment of financial discipline, economic efficiency and the validity of decision-making, based on a generalized analysis and specific calculations, ensuring the social orientation of the financial and legal regulation... The creation of an efficiently operating financial system presupposes "constant and painstaking work of the state both in the spheres of law, including administrative enforcement of the law, and in the spheres of formation institutional framework financial relations ".

The financial system must comply with the principles: sustainability, stability of the financial system, the principle of interaction and consistency financial control and public administration with state and financial authorities, the principle of federalism.

In addition, both scholars and legislators allow confusion between the terms "financial system" and "budgetary system", "financial system" and "monetary system".

We can say that the tax and budget systems are part of the financial system.

S.V. Miroshnik defines the financial system as a consequence of the developed and officially approved conceptual ideas concerning the mechanism of financial and legal regulation, as a result of the targeted impact of financial and economic instruments on the relevant social relations, there is a set of generated financial resources that differ in their legal regimes.

It seems that after the end of the next financial and economic crisis, the architecture of not only the world financial system, but also the Russian financial system will change.

So, the modern financial and economic crisis is, first of all, a crisis of the financial system, which showed its insolvency, as well as the need for clear government regulation. Almost all scientists note a tendency to increase the role of the state in regulating crisis phenomena, including through legal regulation, taking preventive measures, and creating anti-crisis management programs. The problem is that these programs and measures should not be developed when the crisis has become "global", all-encompassing in its breadth, and the state must constantly perform its functions in order to prevent crisis situations. V. Zorkin quite rightly noted that "the global financial and economic crisis, in essence, also means a crisis of the modern rule of law."

The term "financial system" is a complex cross-industry category. It should be noted that with the development of market relations, there is a close intertwining of economic, financial and legal categories. A.I. Khudyakov, in relation to these categories, made it possible to conclude that “a legal institution is a financial and economic institution clothed in legal“ clothing. ”It follows that the system of a special part of financial law is a financial system clothed in legal clothing. The existence of three components in the subject of financial law, one of which is the financial and legal category, is indicated by K. Belsky. The legal category is the financial system of A.A. Tedeev and V.A. Parygin. E. D. Sokolova emphasizes that "economic categories, which include finance and the financial system, are manifested and implemented only in a legal form, which can either create favorable conditions for their functioning, or slow down their development."

One should also agree with the opinion of E.V. Pokachalova that "a clear differentiation of the financial system into certain links (institutions) is important not only from a theoretical point of view, but also necessary from a practical point of view."

Summarizing the above, the financial system can be defined as an interconnected set of legal norms based on certain principles that regulate public relations related to the formation, distribution and use of funds by bodies carrying out financial activities.

• Introduction
• conclusions
• Sources of

Introduction

The topic of the test is "The evolution of the world monetary and financial system - the possibilities of transfer systems and the prospects for their development" in the discipline "Finance".

The purpose of the work is to reflect the stages of the evolution of the world monetary and financial system in relation to changes in the transfer capabilities of its subjects, depending on the availability of resource and communication conditions for carrying out transactions, obtaining financial resources and information about the situation in the financial market, etc.

Evolution of the world monetary and financial system - the possibilities of transfer systems and the prospects for their development

The evolution of world monetary and financial systems has been thoroughly investigated in terms of the transition from a lower form to a higher one, methods of functioning, conditions for their application. Traditionally, it was believed that at each stage of evolution, due to the deterioration of the situation with international liquidity, a new monetary and financial system was created, which was supposed to solve this problem. International liquidity is inextricably linked to factors such as the gold and foreign exchange holdings of central banks and the ability of countries to mine gold. Despite the fact that since the 70s of the XX century. gold no longer fulfilled the function of money, scientists are inclined to explain even the current state of the world monetary and financial system, taking into account the dynamics of gold production, changes in the market value and demand for it from central banks. There are objective reasons for this opinion.

First, it is an indisputable fact that the gold standard system has always, whether it was gold coin, gold bullion or gold exchange, functioned ideally precisely because of the firm pegging of the emission of currencies to the gold reserves of central banks. But natural restrictions, complex economic and political relations between states, catastrophic events in international life (the First and Second World Wars) led to the fact that the dynamics of world trade began to exceed the dynamics of gold production, that is, the emergence of international illiquidity was due to its deficit in world markets ...

Secondly, the key to the success of the Bretton Woods monetary system lay in the fact that when it was created (1944), over 70% of the world's gold reserves were concentrated in the US Federal Reserve. This allowed the United States to turn the dollar into a world currency, carrying out emission on such a scale as required by international trade and the interests of the national economy. It would seem that Bretton Wood provided inviolable guarantees, relying, in particular, not only on the aforementioned binding, but also on the activities of specialized UN organizations, namely the International Monetary Fund, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. International Financial Cooperation, International Development Association, International Investment Guarantee Agency. But the problem of international liquidity was gradually maturing and sooner or later had to loudly declare itself. The short-sighted economic policy of the United States has significantly accelerated events in this area. In the late 60s - early 70s, most of the IMF member countries officially recognized that the current global financial system, which is based on the pegging of gold to the dollar, has exhausted itself and can neither guarantee stability for financial markets, nor contribute to the development of the world farms.

Thirdly, although one of the key postulates of the Jamaican Conference (1976) was the rejection of gold as a universal equivalent and the use of convertible currencies as reserve currencies, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of central banks, along with the latter, include collective currencies, 25% of the country's share at the IMF, as well as banking metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium). It should be noted that in recent years, the demand for and the price of gold has been constantly growing on the banking metals market (2000 - 255 dollars, 2005 - 450, 2009 - 1214, 2010 - 1350 dollars). ... The first rating company recently released data on the owners of the largest gold reserves. According to this information, the United States owns 8965.6 tons of gold, Germany - 3767.1, the IMF - 3546.1, France - 2930.4, Italy - 2702.6, Switzerland - 1285.6, Japan - 843.5, the Netherlands - 688.39, the European Central Bank - 666.5 tons. The gold reserve of Ukraine is 26.8 tons, only 2.7% of the official gold and foreign exchange reserves of the NBU are formed in gold, we occupy the 50th place in the rating.

The transfer capabilities of the subjects of the world monetary and financial system as a determining factor in their evolution, as well as the impact on these capabilities of innovative solutions, remained outside the field of view of researchers. The concept of "transfer opportunities" includes the availability of resource and communication conditions for transactions, as well as the receipt of financial resources and information from other subjects of the system. These capabilities are characterized by certain qualitative parameters, primarily speed, security, multichannel transactions, and are linearly related to several prerequisites:

availability of international and national guarantees for the security of transactions;

the development of communications;

flexibility of mechanisms for collective accumulation of resources using a variety of financial instruments and their use in those areas that have the greatest potential for profitability;

diversification of methods and sources of informing the public about the state and prospects of financial markets.

Analysis of the development of the world monetary system shows that the emergence of international illiquidity is usually accompanied by a decrease in the transfer capabilities of its subjects, with all the characteristic features of this process: the implementation of transactions slows down, the number of channels for attracting and transferring resources to business partners decreases, and security guarantees are weakened. Thus, since 1914, European countries began to gradually issue national currencies without reference to the gold reserves of their central banks, and transactions in the world financial market were carried out only in convertible currencies. Until 1937, virtually all countries abandoned the gold standard. At first, transfer opportunities declined due to the slowdown in transactions and a decrease in the number of channels for receiving and transferring resources to business partners, and then, when the alternatives in the choice of currencies finally disappeared, the extremely low level of security of any transactions became the main problem.

In this case, by innovative we mean decisions made by the heads of governments and central banks at international conferences, as well as at meetings of international financial organizations, the implementation of which radically changed the "rules of the game" and provided new opportunities for the subjects of the world monetary and financial system.

The decline in transfer opportunities as a result of the emergence of currency blocs was indicative. As you know, a currency bloc is a grouping of countries economically, financially and otherwise dependent on a strong "hegemon" who dictates a single foreign policy to them and uses them as a preferred sales market, a source of cheap raw materials, and a profitable sphere of capital investment. The very idea of ​​currency blocks was interesting and quite promising. But during the creation of these blocks there were no prerequisites for their effective functioning: we are talking about the absence in the 30s of the XX century. global and even regional communication and information networks, as well as an adequate mechanism for establishing floating rates of non-convertible currencies relative to the currencies of economically developed countries. The system of currency blocs, lacking the ability to solve the main problem - to increase the level of international liquidity, was actually partially applied, existing in full only "on paper", and to a certain extent contributed to the deepening of the payments crisis on the eve of World War II.

There were also clear signs of a decrease in the transfer capabilities of the subjects of the world monetary and financial system during the period of the Bretton Woods accords functioning. So, since the creation of the IMF, there have been constant failures in this area associated with the negative balance of payments of its participants, in particular those who owned non-convertible currencies. The transfer opportunities of this category of participants were limited, because they, as a rule, did not have export potential, did not influence the IMF's policy, and in fact depended on subsidies from economically developed countries. At the turn of the 60s and 70s, this decline took on a global scale. The heads of governments and central banks of many countries expressed doubts about the then exchange rate of the dollar and its provision with the state of the US balance of payments. The reasons for the trouble were as follows:

1. After the Second World War, the Eurodollar market was formed. Western European countries were interested in their high value, since the dollar was used as a reserve currency.

2. To stimulate the development of export potential and equalize their balances of payments, Western European countries pursued a policy of devaluation, thereby overvaluing the dollar.

3. The United States, implementing a free market policy, refused to introduce quotas on imports of products from Europe and deliberately allowed the positive balance of payments to turn into negative.

4. For the major part of the imported products of the USA were paid by the Treasury bonds.

As a result, the rapid development of the world economy and the growth of the volume of world trade required an additional inflow of dollars into financial markets. It was traditional to respond to this need - it was impossible to issue emission because of the dollar's peg to gold; of course, the increase in the mass of dollars required replenishing the stock of gold, and this was unrealistic.

So, the transfer opportunities of the subjects of the world financial market were reduced, because there were not enough dollars in circulation. In addition, there was a danger of their depreciation if the US Federal Reserve did launch the printing press, despite the 1944 agreements.

In the post-war period, the problem of security in international financial markets was extremely acute. In the United States, Europe and Asia, almost simultaneously, measures were developed and implemented aimed at eliminating abuses in the banking sector, the emergence of which was facilitated by the lack of a mechanism to control market participants. Cooperation of the Bank for International Settlements with central banks developed countries resulted in the signing of the Basel Concordat (1975), which laid the foundations for security in banking, which are still in effect. The document deals with the unification of banking terms, the introduction of standards for the level of financial stability, as well as the reporting of banks carrying out international transactions to central banks.

As for the change in the transfer capabilities of the subjects of the world financial market, the Jamaican system is the most ambiguous. This is due to two factors:

provision was made for the introduction of floating exchange rates corresponding to supply and demand;

the world network of cable and satellite communications SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication - Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) was deployed.

Both factors have removed any restrictions on the growth of world trade, provided an unprecedented quality of transfer opportunities for market participants, since SWIFT operates on the NATO material and technical base, covering all time zones and supporting about 100 data formats. However, on the other hand, due to the lack of pegging of rates and emissions to the gold and foreign exchange reserves of central banks, the control mechanism was lost, which led to an unreasonable increase in the dollar supply in the world. The well-known analyst Chris Hedges claims that since the beginning of the XXI century. The United States increased the amount of money in circulation at the rate of $ 2 billion. in a day. The growth of the dollar supply, and in general an increase in turnover by foreign exchange markets, are explained by the communication capabilities of the SWIFT network: using it, transnational banks easily carried out transactions between their foreign representative offices located in different time zones, and due to this they received speculative profits due to exchange rate differences at the beginning and end of the working day. Equity markets, in particular the derivatives market, also began to grow at an unprecedented rate. This is how speculative capital arose, a significant part of which is fictitious (virtual), and the volume significantly exceeds the value of world GDP. To give an example: the turnover of the gold derivatives market in Chicago and New York is about 99% of the real gold market in London and Zurich. Moving under the influence of a situational difference in supply and demand through communication channels from one market to another, this speculative capital creates the danger of a crisis of non-payments and a collapse of the currency and stock markets. It so happened that developed countries, having large investment resources and extensive communications, are able to influence the conjuncture of financial markets and thereby receive certain benefits from the rise in asset prices or, conversely, from their fall. Developing countries traditionally resort to currency restrictions in order to protect the national currency, and do not allow a threatening inflow of foreign capital, which significantly limits the transfer opportunities of local subjects of monetary and financial relations. The catastrophic growth of debts of many countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland) also turned out to be a problem on a planetary scale.

Scientific and business circles are actively discussing ways to avoid the dangers posed by the modern global monetary and financial system.

The following sentences are considered constructive:

world financial currency transaction

1) ensuring control over foreign exchange markets, withdrawing excess money from circulation;

2) preservation of opportunities for fast, safe and multivariate implementation of international transactions;

3) transition to a multipolar structure of the world monetary and financial system.

When analysts talk about the withdrawal of excess money from circulation on a global scale, then, of course, they mean primarily the dollar. If we take into account the volumes of dollars that are in the reserves of the central banks of different countries, it becomes obvious that the joint participation of the main financial poles is required here in order to ensure stability in the world financial markets. First and foremost, participation should have been to prevent sharp fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate. This can be achieved by introducing a currency corridor system for all leading currencies of the world (dollar, euro, British pound sterling, yen, etc.). An important measure in establishing the multipolarity of the world monetary system is to expand the list and balance the shares of currencies in the basket of special drawing rights (SDRs) 10; To accomplish such a task, it would be necessary to change the method of calculating these shares, in particular, to take into account the regional factor when choosing currencies for the basket.

It is impossible to create corridors for the world's leading currencies in order to withdraw the excess amount of dollars from circulation without fundamental changes in the derivatives market. On the one hand, thanks to this market, financial resources quickly accumulate and speculative profits grow, therefore, new companies appear, competition between investors intensifies, and risks diversify when financing large long-term investment projects; but on the other hand, the instability of the derivatives market is the main cause of payment crises in the field of lending. As you know, before the events of 2007-2008. Ukrainian banks received substantial amounts of funds from abroad. Foreign investors, widely promoting in various mass media promising forecasts about the rates of development of new Ukrainian and other markets, did everything to ensure that the market value of derivative securities increased several times against the initial one. But as soon as the first signs of the crisis appeared and the mechanism of "paying the bills" started working, it turned out that the radiant forecasts were overestimated, that is, the actual incomes were much less than expected. This became the reason for the bankruptcy of the newly created investment funds, downgrading of the ratings of companies that received loans secured by derivatives, deterioration in the structure and profitability of loan portfolios of multinational banks, bringing to a crisis state of Ukrainian financial institutions, from which foreign capital was withdrawn.

Special drawing rights (SDR, SDRs) - reserve means of payment, the issue of which is carried out by the IMF and which exists only in non-cash form in the form of entries in bank accounts. The value of SDRs is calculated on the basis of the leading currencies. The SDR was first used in 1969 to solve the problem of international illiquidity. During 2006-2009. the share of the dollar in the SDR basket was 44%, the euro - 34, the yen and the pound sterling - 11% each.

In view of the above, the regulation of derivatives markets should be substantially updated. In particular, it is necessary to take restrictive measures to change the market value of derivatives, as well as apply clear mechanisms for linking it to the value of assets underlying derivatives. Such measures would have a positive impact on the stability of the world monetary and financial system and national financial markets that are in the process of formation, including the Ukrainian stock market.

In general, of all the introduced monetary and financial systems, the system of currency blocks is the most acceptable for the economic development and financial stability of Ukraine. Today there are all the prerequisites for its functioning. Let's list them. First, there are various reserve currencies, which to some extent can mutually replace each other. Secondly, there are global communication networks that provide communication between all regions and currency areas. Thirdly, the division of currency into central and peripheral ones, which is envisaged by the very concept of "currency block", is possible and appropriate in the context of the multipolarity of the world monetary system. This division could serve as a real basis for issuing central currencies in volumes corresponding to the needs of a particular zone. Such an order would make it possible to weaken the negative impact of the dollar on the Ukrainian economy, deepen the diversification of currencies under export and import contracts, and bring the conditions for the development of the national financial system closer to the system of the country in whose currency zone it would be included. True, we have to admit that intergovernmental agreements are required here, which would guarantee the prevention of actions aimed at reducing the transfer opportunities of the subjects of the currency and financial markets.

The system of currency blocks can provide the listed positive effects only if it covers all countries and regions. This is what is the key to stability in the world currency markets. If it spreads only to a particular region or a certain group of countries, then the confrontation between the leading currencies will intensify.

conclusions

Summarizing what has been said, we emphasize that we believe it is necessary to carry out changes in the world monetary and financial system in those periods when the transfer opportunities of its subjects are decreasing. The decisions of representative international conferences, as well as permanent specialized organizations, are aimed at increasing them. These solutions can be divided into three groups: effective, ineffective, and those that play a dual role. The first group includes decisions on the introduction of a gold coin standard, the Bretton Woods monetary system, the creation of a compensation fund, a collective currency (special drawing rights) and the signing of the Basel Concordat. The second group includes decisions on the transition to the gold bullion and gold exchange systems, the creation of currency blocks. The third group consists of decisions on the Jamaican monetary system and the SWIFT network.

The work reflects the stages of the evolution of the world monetary and financial system regarding the change in the transfer capabilities of its subjects, depending on the availability of resource and communication conditions for transactions, obtaining financial resources and information about the situation in the financial market, and the like.

Sources of

1. Owners of the largest gold reserves (http://www.ratel.com.ua).

2. Features of international investment activities in the gold markets (hup: // www.blog.liga.net).

3. Currency Blocks and Zones (http://buklib.net).

4. Currency Blocks (http: // dic. Academic.ru).

5. Fundamentals of international monetary, financial and credit relations. Textbook. - M., INFRA-M, 1998, 432 p.

6. CIS - Analytical articles (http: // vvww. Snd-su. Iu).

7.http: //www.epravda.com.ua.

8. Gold Field Mineral Services Limited (http://www.inlomine.com).

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