Price index for the year. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The consumer price index for goods and services (CPI) measures the ratio of the cost of a fixed list of goods and services in the prices of the current period to its value in the prices of the previous (base) period and characterizes the change over time in the general level of prices for goods and services purchased by the population for non-productive consumption . The CPI is one of the most important indicators characterizing inflationary processes in the country and is used for the implementation public policy, analysis and forecast of price processes in the economy, revision of the minimum social guarantees, resolving legal disputes, as well as when recalculating a number of indicators of the system of national accounts from current prices to comparable prices.

The calculation of the CPI is based on information obtained from two sources:

data on price changes obtained by registering prices and tariffs in the consumer market;

data on the structure of actual consumer spending of the population for two shifted years.

Monitoring of changes in prices (tariffs) is carried out on the territory of all subjects Russian Federation. Price information is collected in the capitals of the republics, centers of territories, regions, autonomous region, autonomous regions, cities of federal significance and selectively - in district centers selected taking into account their representativeness in reflecting the socio-economic and geographical location regions and degree of saturation consumer market goods and services.

Observation is carried out in trade and service organizations, as well as in clothing, mixed and food markets, both in stationary trading establishments and in mobile trade (tents, kiosks, etc.).

The consumer set, on the basis of which the CPI is calculated, is a single sample of groups of goods and services most frequently consumed by the population for all constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The set of goods and services designed to monitor prices includes goods and services of mass consumer demand. The selection of positions was made taking into account their relative importance for consumption by the population, representativeness in terms of reflecting the dynamics of prices for homogeneous goods, and their stable availability on sale.

The initial information for calculating the CPI is the price registration data for specific goods and services. Based on them, the average comparable prices of the reporting and previous periods. Comparable is the price registered in the same trade organization (service sector) for the same or similar quality product (service).

Sergey Antonov

loves statistics

But it's hard to believe: for example, gasoline has risen in price by almost 10% over the year. We figured out how inflation is calculated, what affects price increases, and whether Rosstat can be trusted.

What is inflation

When people and companies have more money than goods on the shelves and warehouses, demand begins to grow and sellers raise prices. As a result, money depreciates: for the same amount, after some time, you can buy fewer goods. The general increase in prices is inflation. In Russia, this indicator is calculated by Rosstat. In the language of statisticians, it is called the consumer price index.

In fact, there are two types of money in the country now: cash - banknotes and coins; as well as non-cash, which is in the accounts of the state and banks. All money turnover in Russia controls central bank. If they believe that the country needs more money, then the Central Bank orders more cash from Goznak and at the same time reduces key rate- the percentage at which the state lends to commercial banks.

It happens that prices do not rise, but fall. This process is called deflation. But there is nothing good in deflation: it becomes unprofitable to produce goods and the economy slows down. The most famous crisis that occurred against the backdrop of deflation was the Great Depression in America in the thirties. Ideal situation for economic growth in the country - a slight inflation of 1-2%.

How Rosstat calculates inflation

Statistics use the consumer basket to calculate inflation. It includes about seven hundred goods and services: from bread, cereals and vegetables to household appliances and cars. Every month, statisticians in all regions of the country monitor the prices for these goods and services in stores, markets and directly from manufacturers, and then derive an average value for the country.

The composition of the consumer basket of statistics is changed annually, studying the real expenses of Russian families. In 2018, 37.5% of Russians' spending was on food, 35.2% on non-food items, and 27.3% on services. Within these three categories, spending on individual goods is distributed.

For example, according to statisticians, 9.3% of expenses are for meat, 9.9% for public utilities, 1.5% - for education. The basket also includes large purchases: travel, building materials, computers.

They are revising the composition of the basket and its structure also because new goods appear on the shelves, and Russians begin to spend more on some things. For example, in 2006, gasoline accounted for 2% of the consumer basket, and in 2018 it was already 4%. And the prices for smartphones 12 years ago were not taken into account at all.

In addition to this large consumer basket, Rosstat separately considers the change in the core consumer price index. This is a set of 83 products whose prices are least affected by sudden changes. economic situation or season: e.g. meat products, bakery products, utilities, public transport. The change in the value of such a basic consumer basket is used by the statistician to calculate weekly inflation.

There is also a third consumer basket - with a minimum set of goods, which includes 33 food products. Changes in prices for the minimum set are used in calculating the subsistence minimum.

What affects inflation

Price growth is influenced by a whole range of factors, including the situation on world markets and the domestic policy of the state. Here are some of the causes of inflation.

Weather- in a bad year, farmers will harvest a small crop, and, as a result, the cost of products will increase.

Large military spending- all the money goes to military plants, and enterprises that produce civilian products are forced to reduce volumes.

Infrastructure development- a road was built between the two regions, competition intensified, and entrepreneurs, adjusting to new conditions, reduce prices.

Currency fluctuations- Because of this, prices are rising from manufacturers who purchase raw materials and equipment abroad. Raw materials rise in price - the cost price and the final price of the goods grow.

Rates- Most items are priced with shipping costs. railway, payments for heat and electricity. Both railroad workers and energy companies are usually monopolies. As soon as they raise tariffs, it immediately affects the prices of almost all goods.

Economic Forecasts- The Central Bank even uses the special term "inflation expectations". And these expectations can accelerate or slow down inflation.

For example, if some expert announces on the main channel of the country that a sharp rise in prices is possible, then the audience will run to the shops to buy goods for the future. Against the backdrop of rush demand, prices will rise. If manufacturers wait for high inflation, they will begin to raise the cost of their goods in advance. In the end, the very expectation of rising prices will cause this growth.

The government regulates inflation by limiting the amount of money in the economy. This is what the Central Bank does. His main instrument- key rate. If the Central Bank lowers the key rate, banks can issue loans to people and entrepreneurs under low interest because their money is cheap. In parallel with this, deposit rates are falling - it becomes unprofitable to attract deposits from citizens, because it is easier to borrow from the state.

As a result, the amount of money in the economy is growing: everyone takes cheap loans, actively spends savings, since it makes no sense to put them on deposits. Demand is growing and so are prices. Inflation is rising.

To reduce inflation, the Central Bank, on the contrary, raises the key rate. Then banks do not borrow from the state, but from the population, raising deposit rates. People stop spending and start saving. Interest rates on loans are rising. There is less money in the economy, inflation is falling.

Why it seems that Rosstat is wrong

The average consumer, whose portrait Rosstat draws when collecting a grocery basket, is an abstract character. Each Russian family has its own unique basket, which does not coincide with the statistical one. For example, poor people spend most of their income on food, while food takes only 37.5% of the official basket.

In addition, the rate of inflation varies from region to region. For example, in November 2018, in the Bryansk region, prices, according to Rosstat, increased by 0.9%, while in the Yamalo-Nenets District, on the contrary, they decreased by 0.2%. In general, the cost of the food basket in the country increased by 0.5%. But one cannot ignore the nationwide inflation: it is important for the state to understand what is happening with the economy as a whole and whether it is possible to regulate prices in the country.

VTsIOM polls show that over the past 14 years, more than half of Russians believe that the country has very high inflation. For example, in March 2018, according to the Central Bank, the majority of the population believed that inflation in Russia was 9.2%. By official information, this figure was 2.35%. The Central Bank believes that this is happening due to the fact that we are simply used to living in a country with high inflation.

Who else counts inflation in Russia

In addition to Rosstat, several other organizations consider price changes in domestic stores.

X5 Retail Group together with Rosstat calculates the Pyaterochka index based on the prices of products in its distribution network. The company monitors prices for only 33 products included in the minimum set of Rosstat. The Pyaterochka index practically coincides with the official inflation.

The value of which reflects the average prices for services and goods in the consumer basket for a certain time period. It is calculated using the ratio market value a pre-selected set of products in current year to base. In Russia, the state service Rosstat manages its analysis. The consumer price index according to this method includes the price of the consumer basket last month as the base period. In January, the data for December is used. previous year. However, the basis for this indicator may differ from country to country.

Calculation of the consumer price index

AT general view The CPI is the quotient of the sum of the products of the base year's current output prices and the methodology's past total basket value. The calculated consumer price index will be an indicator of changes in the standard of living in the country. If Q 0 is the volume of products included in the consumer basket, and P 0 and P t are the base and current prices, respectively, then the formula should look like this:

• CPI \u003d ∑ (Q 0 x P t) : ∑ (Q 0 x P 0) x 100%.

The result is written as a percentage. If it is more than 100, then inflation is observed in the economy, as evidenced by the increasing cost of goods.

High inflation

The consumer price index shows the change in the exchange rate of the national currency. An increase in its growth rate indicates an increase in inflation in the economy and the need for a tightening of monetary policy by the regulatory body. At the same time, when choosing its strategy of behavior in the market, the Central Bank should focus not only on the actual indicator, but also on its expected level. If workers believe in higher prices, they will start demanding higher wages. This will lead to the fact that manufacturers will increase the cost of production. On the other hand, high inflationary expectations lead to an increase in investment flows, since current consumption becomes more profitable than saving free funds.

The problem of low inflation

The monetary policy of the Central Bank is often aimed at reducing the rate of inflation, as it indicates an overheating of the economy, which hinders its sustainable growth. However, low consumer prices are also dangerous. Low inflation expectations deprive households of an incentive to invest free funds, gradually stopping the growth of the economy. To prevent this situation, the Central Banks reduce interest rates.

Rod index

Many products in consumer basket are subject to price fluctuations, which makes the inflation value obtained as a result of a simple calculation unstable. Therefore, in many countries, the core index is additionally analyzed. It includes about a quarter of the goods and services in the basket, excluding everything that is subject to sharp price changes as a result of seasonal or weather factors. On the one hand, this makes it a more stable indicator. On the other hand, it leads to the fact that it less fully reflects the depth of the processes taking place in the economy.

Rosstat: consumer price index

federal Service state statistics is engaged in the calculation of all major economic indicators. The consumer price index is analyzed in accordance with the Decree of the State Statistics Committee No. 23 of March 25, 2002. In March 2015, it amounted to 101.2% compared to February and 107.4% - to December 2014 and 116.9% - to the corresponding month of 2014. Commodity prices increased by higher percentage than for the provision of services. At the same time, the budget includes a value of 111.4%, which makes the cost of the pension coefficient from February 1, 2015 equal to 71.41 rubles.

Criticism of the indicator

The consumer price index is based on a predetermined set of products. It is to the contents of the basket used that often the most questions arise. In order to reproduce the state of affairs in national economy, it should reflect the real structure of consumption. But often countries do not change its composition for years, which leads to the exclusion of a number of services that are part of everyday life. In particular, in the basket in many developing countries does not turn on mobile connection but only wired. On the other hand, if you change the set of goods and services, then this will make the new consumer price index incomparable with the previous one. If we compare the obtained indicators, then they can differ by a fairly large amount.

Therefore, for the purposes economic analysis and planning, it is important to carefully approach the structure of the basket, changing it in case of significant shifts in the structure of consumption. In general, the PPI reflects market conditions quite effectively.

The change in prices in the economy is given by various price dynamics indicators— producer price indices, gross domestic product deflator, consumer price index. When people talk about inflation, they usually mean the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change over time in the cost of a set of food, non-food goods and services consumed by the average household (i.e., the cost of the “consumer basket”). The choice of the CPI as the main indicator of inflation is related to its role as an important indicator of the dynamics of the cost of living of the population. In addition, the CPI has a number of characteristics that make it convenient for widespread use - the simplicity and clarity of the construction methodology, the monthly frequency of calculation, and the speed of publication.

The periods for which the CPI is measured can vary. The most common comparisons of the level of consumer prices in a certain month of the year with their level in previous month, the corresponding month of the previous year, December of the previous year.

Statistical monitoring of prices, necessary calculations and publication of CPI data in Russia is carried out by the Federal State Statistics Service.

Features of the Russian consumer basket

In Russia, as in emerging markets in general, feature the consumer basket is a fairly high share of food products (in 2014 - 36.5%). Their prices are highly volatile. To a large extent, inflation fluctuations in the food market are determined by changes in supply volumes, primarily the crop yield in our country and in the world, which is significantly dependent on weather conditions. Since the share of food products in the consumer basket is high, price fluctuations for them can have a significant impact on inflation in general.

Another feature of the Russian consumer basket used to calculate the CPI is the presence in it of goods and services, prices and tariffs for which are subject to administrative influence. Thus, the state regulates tariffs for a number of public utilities services, passenger transport, communications, and some others. In addition, prices for tobacco products, alcoholic products significantly depend on excise rates.

Consumer demand is satisfied by goods and services of both domestic and foreign production. Statistical data on the share of imports in the CPI are not available, but an idea of ​​it in terms of goods can be given specific gravity imports in the structure of commodity resources retail(in last years- about 44%). A significant share of merchandise imports in the consumer basket determines the significance of the impact of changes in the ruble exchange rate on inflation.

Inflation factors

Prices may rise faster or slower. In the first case, they speak of an increase in inflation, in the second, of its decrease. There are various reasons for the change in inflation. Let's consider them on the example of accelerating price growth. If the level of demand for goods and services exceeds the supply capacity to satisfy it, they speak of a pro-inflationary effect. demand side factors. In some cases, the outpacing growth in demand may be affected by too available loans, accelerated growth of nominal incomes of economic entities. These sources of excess demand are often referred to as "monetary factors of inflation"- pressure on prices due to the creation of an excess amount of money.

Inflation can also grow when an imbalance in the market for a good or service arises due to insufficient suggestions, for example, due to crop failure, restrictions on the import of products from abroad, the actions of a monopolist.

Inflation can be caused by growth costs for the production and sale of a unit of output - due to the rise in the cost of raw materials, materials, components, an increase in the costs of enterprises for wages, taxes, interest payments and other costs. Rising costs may also lead to a decrease in production volumes and, further, to the formation of additional pro-inflationary pressure due to insufficient supply.

The rise in prices for imported cost components may be due to both an increase in world prices and a depreciation of the national currency. In addition, the weakening of the national currency can directly affect the prices of final products imported from abroad. The overall effect of exchange rate changes on price movements is called "transfer effect" and is often considered as a separate factor of inflation.

Economic theory highlights as a special factor inflation expectations— Assumptions regarding the level of future inflation, formed by the subjects of the economy. The expected level of inflation is taken into account by producers when making decisions regarding the setting of prices for their own products, rates wages, determining the volume of production and investment. Households' inflationary expectations affect their decisions about how much of their funds to save and how much to consume. The decisions of economic actors affect the supply and demand for goods and services and, ultimately, inflation.

Negative effects of high inflation

High inflation means a decrease in the purchasing power of the incomes of all economic entities, which negatively affects demand, economic growth, the standard of living of the population, and public sentiment. The depreciation of income reduces opportunities and undermines incentives to save, which hinders the formation of a sustainable financial basis for investment. In addition, high inflation is accompanied by increased uncertainty, which makes it difficult for economic actors to make decisions. All together, this negatively affects savings, consumption, production, investment, and, in general, the conditions for sustainable development economy.

Benefits of Price Stability

Price stability means maintaining low rates of growth in consumer prices, such that economic agents neglect when making decisions. In conditions of low and predictable inflation, the population is not afraid to save in national currency for long periods, because they are sure that inflation will not devalue their deposits. Long-term savings, in turn, are a source of investment financing. In conditions of price stability, banks are ready to provide resources to borrowers for long periods at a relatively low rates. Thus, price stability creates conditions for the growth of investment and, ultimately, for sustainable economic development.

Inflation is getting more and more attention. And not only on the part of economists, but also on the part of ordinary people. What is it, how is it formed and what can it lead to? Features of inflation rates in Russia and a full table for 26 years.

According to economic definitions, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services within a country that can last for a long time. Every year, if there is an increase in inflation, the same amount of money can buy less and less goods. For example, 1000 rubles in 2007 turns into about 418 rubles for 2017.

Types of inflation

This economic phenomenon, according to modern classifications, has several varieties:

• demand inflation. Demand is higher than supply, which allows the manufacturer to raise prices for a “rare” product;
• cost inflation(suggestions). The cost of production increases, causing the manufacturer to raise the cost of production.

There are other types of inflation that can be noted as follows:

• balanced. The cost of different goods does not change in relation to each other - prices rise at once for everything at about the same pace;
• unbalanced. One or more categories of goods may skyrocket in price relative to others that rise in price much more slowly;
• predictable . With the help of market analysis, it is possible to calculate the size based on the expectations and behavior of economic entities. Often, a certain level of inflation is included in the country's budget for the year;
• unpredictable. A sudden rise in prices that no one could have predicted - neither analysts nor the public - ends up being higher than the predicted value;

Separately, it is worth highlighting the expectations of consumers who are able to create artificial inflation. As a rule, it is provoked by rumors that some product will soon become scarce or will rise in price sharply.

This was the case with buckwheat in 2014, when someone spread a rumor that snow had ruined the buckwheat crop in the Altai Territory. Suppliers raised prices, followed by retailers. And the population rushed to buy buckwheat, mindful of the 80s and 90s, which ultimately led to its shortage and, of course, an increase in cost.

There are three main types of speed:

• moderate or creeping. Prices are rising, but very slowly - up to 10% per year;
• galloping. The depreciation of money goes at a rate of 20 to 200% per year;
• hyperinflation. The most terrible view for the state. Money depreciates at a tremendous rate - more than 200% per year.

At the same time, inflation can be suppressed or open. In the first case, it will go unnoticed by prices. That is, the growth of wages and prices is restrained by the state (as it was in the USSR), but with the availability of money and a fixed cost of goods, there is simply nothing to buy. There is a shortage of products. At open inflation there is no such thing – prices are regulated by the market itself.

The following two types are also separate:

• imported inflation. It turns out when too much comes to the country foreign exchange(for example, the dollar), combined with an increase in the prices of goods imported from abroad;
• exportable inflation. Comes from other states through international economic relations and "infects" the country's economy.

You can also highlight stagflation, which is expressed in the simultaneous rise in prices for goods and the fall in production volumes.

Features of inflation in Russia

For each country, inflation has its own specifics. And Russia is no exception. The enormous influence of the USSR with its planned and distributive economic system killed the balance in the market and in the national economy. The consequences are still being felt.

Only since 1991, the government began to gradually transfer the economy from a planned economy to a market one and try to somehow remove production from the power of the state. Naturally, this could not happen right away. There was a lack of legal framework and experience.

As a result, the supposed liberalization of prices, which started in 1992, did not lead to the establishment of a market equilibrium for the country, but to hyperinflation due to lack production capacity, mass monopolization of production and, as a result, lack of competition. Hyperinflation led to stagflation, which further exacerbated the crisis. A break in ties with countries former USSR led to further destruction of the economy. As a result, all these factors led to sharp growth inflation rate in the country. Further liberalization of currency legislation did not help, but aggravated the situation.

We can say that the main cause of inflation is not extra money in circulation, but the monopolization of the market and, as a result, a sharp increase in prices through intermediaries.

It is noteworthy that one feature of inflation in Russia at that time was the peg of the ruble to the dollar when setting exchange rate only according to the results of trading on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange. Although almost all the currency was sold on the interbank market.

The year 1995 was characterized by the government's attempts to tightly control the supply of money to the economy. But this led to nothing but the 1998 crisis. And by 1999, the country's gross national product had halved.

After 1998, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation thought about conducting an anti-inflationary policy and supporting financial stability in the country. The active participation of the national regulator in the economy and the national economy, as well as sensitive responses to the real financial situation, were able to resolve the situation. And gradually, the economy and the financial sector, despite the crises, are recovering and developing to this day.

But at the same time, it is worth remembering that today Rosstat "for old times' sake" is trying to somewhat underestimate the official inflation figures in its charts.

For example, according to Rosstat in January 2017 official inflation was only 0.6%. And the research holding Romir calculated 3.2% using the deflator formula. On average, according to independent analyst Dmitry Adamidov, official inflation is one third lower than real inflation.

What should be inflation for the growth of the country's economy

According to research conducted by A. Illarionov, high inflation negatively affects the growth of the economy in the country. The faster prices rise, the slower the economy develops. Provided that all other factors do not affect it.

During the analysis, it turned out that in 1976-1996 the critical indicator of average annual inflation, which led to a halt in economic growth and, as a result, an economic recession, was 25-49%. At the same time, the maximum rates of economic growth in the same period were observed at an inflation rate of 1.1-4.7%.

It can be concluded that the lower the rate of price growth, the better the economic condition of the state.

What causes inflation

In general, all the reasons why inflation may rise are as follows:

1. excessive money issue- an increase in the amount of money leads to their depreciation;
2. lack of money in state budget- excess of expenses over income;
3. Growth in spending on military needs up to the militarization of the economy;
4. Insufficient and slow development of the country's economy;
5. Monopoly pricing for goods and services in the state;
6. The expectation of rising prices by citizens, which leads to the purchase of goods more than necessary, and which in consequence leads to an increase in prices due to increased demand;
7. Mutual import inflation - an increase in prices for exported and imported goods.

Naturally, individually, each of the reasons will not lead to catastrophic consequences. But the combination of even a few of them can cause a gradual increase in the rate of inflation.

Inflation in Russia by years: 1991-2017

In Russia, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, hyperinflation began almost immediately. Now no one controlled prices, and the market, which was not ready for this, was left to itself. And the already existing shortage of goods and lack of production capacity eventually led to a catastrophic rise in prices. In 1991, it amounted to 160.4% at the end of the year.

It was only at the end of 1993 that inflation began to slow down slowly, when inflation fell from 2508.8% at the end of 1992 to 840%. And the decline continued until 1998, when, following the results, the rate again jumped from 11.0% last year to 84.5%. Then another decline. Only by 2000 tough money-credit policy was able to level the situation and slow down inflation.

The following jumps, as a rule, fell on the crisis year and the year after it: 2008 and 2009 (the government even had to freeze prices for 6 categories of products), 2014 and 2015. The full calculation of inflation for 26.5 years can be seen in the following table by year. The growth rate is given as a percentage relative to the previous year.

* for 2018, inflation is calculated based on indicators for January-April.

Judging by the data given in the table, inflation in 2017 is the lowest in the history of Russia. The forecast for 2018 is also optimistic. Minimum value inflation expected in 2018 is 2.3%.

Inflation chart in Russia since 1991

We agree with you that the "comic" values ​​of inflation in the early 1990s hinder the viewing of the "picture". Let's rearrange the schedule. This time the starting point will be 2001.

Inflation chart in Russia since 2001

The last 10 years have been more calm in terms of price growth. The situation has more or less stabilized, and only periodic crises led to bursts of price growth. So, over 10 years (from June 2007 to June 2017) inflation increased by 132.38%. In the decade preceding this period, between 1997 and 2007, this figure was 577.67%.