Measures for import substitution in agriculture.

Miscellaneous Four years after the introduction of restrictions on food supplies from North America and the European Union, Russian consumption statistics show a noticeable increase in the share of Russian products in purchases by Russians. The pre-sanction share of domestic food of 65% increased to 80%. The growth began already in 2015: Russian farmers received cheap loans

, access to land, discounts on food transportation by rail. Import substitution in agriculture has growing dynamics. The growth does not stop: at the end of 2018. The number of pigs, for example, on Russian farms may increase by 12%. A large number of

poultry meat led to the fact that manufacturers began to reduce wholesale prices, and the Russian buyer can feel the effect of this without any loss to the wallet.

Russian grain is confidently conquering foreign markets, displacing European and American exporters: the devaluation of the ruble helped sellers from Russia increase their ruble revenue from foreign receipts. The growth of the cattle population promises an increase in milk production and a solution to the problem of counterfeit milk from palm oil. Well, no one prohibited the import of the notorious “sanctions” for personal consumption.
Saenko Irina Ivanovna, Ladygina Ekaterina Ivanovna, Chistukha Elena Gennadievna
1. Associate Professor, Ph.D. PhD, Management and Marketing
2. student, Kuban State Agrarian University named after I.T. Trubilina
3. student, Kuban State Agrarian University named after I.T. Trubilina
Saenko I. I., Ladygina E. I., Chistuha E. G.
1. Associate Professor, candidate of economic sciences, management and marketing
2. student Kuban state agrarian University named after I. T. Trubilin

3. student Kuban state agrarian University named after I. T. Trubilin Annotation: The possibilities and prospects for import substitution of agricultural products in Russia and its regions are considered in the current unstable economic situation under the conditions of foreign sanctions. Import substitution is one of the mechanisms for stimulating domestic production. If used correctly, this mechanism can become an effective development measure.. Entire sectors of the Russian economy, which are today in their infancy, with proper support measures can become a source of domestic goods that are in demand not only on the Russian market, but also at least in the neighboring countries. But for this, such support must be comprehensive, not limited to just a ban on the access of foreign goods. In addition, support for domestic producers should not exclude at least internal competition between them, otherwise they will not be able to prepare for external competition. The article analyzes import-substituting products in Russia.

Abstract: The paper discusses the possibilities and prospects of import substitution of agricultural products in Russia and its regions in the current unstable economic situation in terms of foreign sanctions. Import substitution is one of the mechanisms to stimulate domestic production. With proper use of this mechanism can be an effective measure of development of the national economy. Whole sectors of the Russian economy, which is today in its infancy, with the proper support measures can become a source of domestic goods demanded not only on the Russian market, but at least in the near abroad. But that such support should be comprehensive, not limited only to the prohibition of foreign goods. In addition, support of domestic producers should not exclude at least the internal competition between them, otherwise they will not be able to prepare for foreign competition. In the article the analysis of import-substituting production in Russia.

Keywords: import substitution, sanctions, agriculture, products, production, market, entrepreneurship, segment.

Keywords: import substitution, sanctions, agriculture, production, trade, market, business segment.

The problem of import substitution in Russia is one of the key ones and has not lost its relevance for a long time. Today, this problem is intensifying due to the introduction by some countries of harsh sanctions against the Russian economy. First of all, Western embargoes are reflected in the agricultural sector. In this regard, the process of import substitution in the Russian Federation began to be considered as the most priority agricultural development.

Import substitution is the process of reducing the share of imported products in the country’s trade turnover and replacing them with domestic goods or services, that is, those produced within the country.

Import substitution has acquired particular importance due to the fact that in 2014 Russia, in response to a number of trade and economic sanctions of European countries, the USA, Canada, Australia and Japan, banned the import of a number of products (meat, fish, crustaceans, milk and dairy products, vegetables, fruits and nuts). The embargo on these products has opened up opportunities for Russian manufacturers to fill the niche in this segment. Thus, Table 1 shows the dynamics of production of the main types of import-substituting food products in the period from 2013 to 2016.

Table 1

Production of main types of import-substituting food products in Russian Federation, thousand tons

According to the table, we can conclude that the largest share in the production of import-substituting products in 2016 in the period from January to October is occupied by dairy products, its volumes amount to 4556 thousand tons, which is 1% more than in 2015 for this year. same period. And the smallest share of production falls on fruits, berries and dried nuts, which amount to 9.7 thousand tons, while the relative increase in 2016 compared to 2015 decreased by 8.6%.

As a rule, import substitution occurs due to an increase in the volume of domestic production and tariff customs regulation of import purchases. Thus, already in 2015, Russia began implementing a process to create a package of regulations to support domestic manufacturer from the state by the government commission on import substitution.

It should be noted that the task of minimizing imports in the agricultural sector was set back in 2010. But the introduction of sanctions lists made it possible for domestic producers to fill the gap in the market with legislative and financial support from the state.

An example of import substitution in this moment the following achievements in different regions Russia:

1. According to the results for 11 months of 2016, the Nizhny Novgorod region is the leader in the Volga region federal district for meat production. In the region, the production of poultry and livestock meat has increased significantly by more than 17% and amounts to 124.2 thousand tons in physical terms.

2. The production of biodegradable mulch film has been launched in the Krasnodar region. The product will be used to cover the soil to protect it in agriculture when growing vegetables, grapes, melons, gardening and nurseries. This product decomposes in soil without harm to environment and does not require disposal costs.

3. Two livestock complexes and a feed mill are being built in Crimea. The complex will accommodate up to 400 heads of dairy cows, and a dairy farm will also be equipped.

In fact, there are a huge number of examples of such agricultural achievements in the regions of Russia. The state provides support to small and medium-sized businesses, farms and other enterprises in the form of various subsidies, subsidies, and preferential loans.

According to the results of the import substitution program, by 2020 Russia will have to provide itself with food by 90%. In conclusion, we can conclude that the implementation of this program is producing the first positive results.

Bibliography

Kopein V.V. 1, Filimonova E.A. 2

1 ORCID: 0000-0002-1962-0467, Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor; 2 ORCID: 0000-0002-1641-502X, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Kemerovo Institute (branch) of the Russian University of Economics them. G.V. Plekhanov

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN AGRICULTURE: ASSESSMENTS, PROBLEMS AND ECONOMIC SECURITY

annotation

The article analyzes import substitution in the field of agricultural production as a process. Attention is drawn to the lack of established and sustainable trends in the active development of domestic agricultural production as a reaction to the food embargo. The weakening of economic and food security is indicated in the context of the devaluation of the ruble, a decrease in domestic demand, rising food prices and an increase in the level of its availability for the population.

Keywords: economic security, food security, import substitution, inflation, devaluation

Kopein V.V. 1, Filimonova E.A. 2

1 ORCID: 0000-0002-1962-0467, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor; 2 ORCID: 0000-0002-1641-502X, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Kemerovo Institute (branch) of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN AGRICULTURE: ASSESSMENT, CHALLENGES AND ECONOMIC SECURITY

Abstract

This article analyzes the import substitution in the sphere of agricultural production as a process. Drawn attention to the lack of maturity and sustainable trends of active development of own agricultural production as a reaction to a food embargo. Indicates a weakening of economic and food security in a devaluation of the ruble, lower domestic demand, rising food prices and raising the bar of its accessibility to the public.

Keywords: economic security, food security, import substitution, inflation, devaluation

The development of a system for monitoring and managing economic security is necessary to create a set of development programs for almost all areas of human activity and economic sectors. The global crisis and economic wars have affected all countries and regions to varying degrees, changed the level of income of the population, and adjusted everything relations of production. The fall in oil prices, even if we consider this process to have almost stopped, will affect the state of the Russian economy for many years to come. But, as many experts note, the difficult economic situation in Russia was formed not only low prices for oil, restricting access to financial resources, and above all, systemic problems in the economy. Gross growth internal product(GDP) practically stopped by 2014; since 2008, GDP dynamics have had a fading trend. Features of the modern period include the fact that the issues of analyzing the consequences of economic sanctions and adapting the economy to new external and internal conditions, developing a new development model come to the fore in theory and practice economic life.

The positions of politicians and experts, despite the existing disagreements, agree on one thing - the level of national (its components - economic, food, financial and others) security of countries and regions is decreasing. A special aspect in the security system is the food supply of the population. The socio-economic situation in the country ultimately depends on the solution to this basic issue of life support - food supply. Issues of price, quality, and range of food are among the most significant indicators of social status.

The policy of import substitution in the field of food supply, as a reaction to anti-Russian sanctions and food embargo, has been identified by the Government of the Russian Federation as a priority line in economic strategy and tactics, until, according to various estimates, it has not had a serious positive impact on domestic producers of the agro-industrial complex. Introduced by the US and European countries sanctions against Russia, limiting investment and borrowed funds, slowed down the development of the Russian agro-industrial complex. The decrease in supplies of imported food led to compensation for this volume with supplies from other countries that are not subject to the food embargo. According to some estimates, there was practically no increase in domestic production in agriculture.

These trends largely determined the rise in prices for food products in Russia, which, against the background of the depreciation of the ruble, led to a significant decrease in the standard of living of the population. In 2015, the number of unemployed in the country reached 4.1 million people, the unemployment rate was 5.3%. In our opinion, this official level does not reflect the real picture, since it does not take into account hidden unemployment in the form of a reduction in the working week, leaves without pay, etc. Reality also formulates new requirements for the system of managing factors and the level of economic, financial security, food security. Additional factors, putting pressure on the state of economic security are centripetal trends in the socio-economic development of regions, deficits regional budgets, significant differentiation in the dynamics of regional development indicators. Methods for assessing levels of economic security based on calculating coefficients, comparing their values ​​with threshold levels and determining the degree of security based on this ratio have not lost their relevance. But the truth of the assessments is increasingly being questioned. The formation of the empirical base of the study is carried out using general empirical methods, among which are the analysis of knowledge systems, monitoring of basic socio-economic indicators, analysis of general and specialized literature. The applicability of these methods is due to their versatility, easy adaptation to research purposes, as well as low costs of collection and processing.

In 2014, when Russia introduced a food embargo, assessments of options for the development of the situation were quite optimistic. The loss of imports as a factor of pressure on demand, supply and food prices was not voiced. In 2014, according to expert calculations, in Russia the share of products prohibited for import in consumption is insignificant: cattle meat - 3%, pork - 12%, milk and dairy products - 1%, fruits - 15%, fish - 14% , poultry meat – 8%, vegetables and root vegetables – 3%. Therefore, the reduction in imports could be covered by domestic production or supplies from countries not subject to the food embargo.

Currently, specialists’ assessments of the situation on the food market, and, accordingly, indirect assessments of the level of food and economic security, fluctuate within a fairly wide range. A number of business representatives define the situation in import substitution in the agricultural sector as not demonstrating progressive development. Others are less categorical and are associated with the assessment of import substitution as an established trend. By certain species There was an increase in production of goods included in the food embargo list. In January-August 2015 compared to January-August 2014 own production fresh, cooled, chilled cattle meat - by 9%, meat and by-products of edible poultry - by 10.6%, production of steamed, cooled, chilled pork - by 13.5%. In the dairy products market, own production of dairy products in January-August 2015 increased by 2.7%, production of cheese and cheese products by 25.1%, and butter by 6.2% compared to the corresponding period in 2014.

Variety of quality and quantitative estimates The situation in the food supply sector does not allow us to present a reliable picture of the progress of import substitution. The Russian consumer evaluates these processes by the level of food prices and food inflation. Today, the purchasing power of the consumer himself is limited by a decrease in real income, while food production volumes have not increased and the market saturation point has not yet been reached.

The intensification of the development of agriculture and the agro-industrial complex is not yet sustainable and irreversible. Many of the reasons we mentioned above are objective. We must not forget about the time lag (on average from 2 to 5 years) for bringing new enterprises to the planned production level. Therefore, all these trends cannot give optimism in assessments of economic security and, as its component, food security. According to the main indicators of food security, among which several significant ones can be identified: volume of agricultural production; purchasing power of the population (proportion of the population with incomes below the subsistence level); share of household expenditures on food purchases in average per capita cash income, their decline is observed, which indirectly characterizes the downward trend in the level of food security. There is no positivity in assessments of economic security as an integral indicator.

According to B. Frumkin’s estimates, in January-September 2015 compared to January-September 2014. consumer prices food costs increased by 21.5%, including fruits and vegetables – 31.6%, meat and meat products – by 17.7%, milk and dairy products – by 14.4%. There was a significant increase in prices for goods practically independent of imports - for cereals and legumes - by 46.1%, granulated sugar - by 44%. As a result, the share of food costs in consumer spending increased from 27.7% in 2013 to 29.8%. According to the results of the 2nd quarter of 2015, almost 14% of the Russian population (more than 20 million people) have incomes below living wage.

Thus, today the situation in the field of food supply is unfolding in the form of rising prices for almost all important food products, and the rising prices have two components - direct growth, recorded digitally, and hidden - in the form of a decrease in the level of income of the population and an increase in the level of affordability, which does not provide grounds for positive assessments of the safety level. Nor does it add optimism to the assessment of the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and their future prospects.

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The agro-industrial complex has always been considered one of the most profitable industries in Russia. Agricultural resources coupled with the proper level technical equipment made it possible to stably support the production of enterprises involved in this area. However, at this stage of development, the laws of competition require increasing the efficiency of market participants. In part, the inability of domestic producers to confidently confront foreign competitors has necessitated the need for fundamental changes in economic policy. Import substitution was proposed as the optimal way to solve the pressing problem. In agriculture, it must justify itself as a measure that allows a painless transition for the industry’s economy to a new, more technologically advanced level of production.

The concept of import substitution in agriculture

The development of the concept of import substitution fully fits into the idea of ​​the food security doctrine, which was drawn up back in 2010. Subsequently, it was revised more than once, but the general meaning remained the same. It consists of creating conditions in the domestic market under which Russian manufacturers will be able to strengthen their positions, and the industry’s economy will be less dependent on foreign goods. In some way, import substitution in the agricultural sector has become a tool for achieving the objectives of the doctrine.

However, the restriction of import supplies of agricultural products also contributed to the introduction of significant adjustments to the development programs of the agro-industrial sector. Along with this, some threats have emerged affecting the macroeconomic climate, technology platform and agro-ecological factors. Such threats can be realized by a complete refusal of imports or restrictions with high coefficients, therefore experts in economic and industrial development note the need to maintain a balance in restrictive measures.

Functions of import substitution

Achieving the set strategic goals, which are expressed in strengthening the national agro-industrial complex, is implemented through a whole range of tasks. First of all, import substitution is designed to support integration functions that are focused on optimizing the processes of interaction between agricultural business entities in different levels management. In many ways, strengthening the model of effective control and management of the complex makes it possible to create conditions for more productive work of farms as the main unit of the industry.

As for indirect functions, import substitution in agriculture should contribute to the active implementation economic instruments supporting the sector, optimizing logistics processes of interaction between partners, solving problems of distribution and consumption of not only products, but also the raw material base. As research data from agricultural enterprises shows, only a small part of them are able to fully meet the needs of the modern consumer. And this applies not only to the main quality characteristics product, but also secondary aspects of interaction between the manufacturer and market participants.

Import substitution program in agriculture

The state import substitution program is formed by a set of long-term strategic goals. In particular, the main subprograms include stimulating the development of crop production, livestock farming and beef cattle breeding. In each of these areas, it is also expected to develop processes for processing raw materials and selling final products. That is, the tasks of developing more effective schemes for interaction between participants in the chain from the direct producer to the consumer are formulated again. This is due to the fact that import substitution in agriculture is largely hampered by the technological backwardness of many enterprises. In this regard, the main program also provides for the beginning of technical and technological modernization with the active implementation of innovative solutions.

Import substitution objectives

Achieving strategic goals formulated in state program import substitution is possible only if the real problems facing industry representatives are solved. In particular, it is necessary to increase the volume of investments in agriculture, stimulate processes for improving the efficiency of exploitation of land resources, land reclamation, overcoming stagnation in the livestock segment, developing domestic agricultural engineering, etc. As can be seen, in each sub-sector, import substitution and agricultural development are implemented with with its own characteristics, which are also determined by characteristic long-term problems. But there is also a general specificity of the import substitution program in the agro-industrial complex, which is worth considering separately.

Features of import substitution in agriculture

Features of the development of the agricultural sector in conditions of refusal imported goods and transition to a new technological level are determined by several factors. First of all, there is a certain dependence on foreign suppliers. Some industries are still unable to optimally cover the relevant niches with their products. Therefore, there is unevenness in the production efficiency of enterprises from different subsectors. In addition, import substitution in agriculture is impossible without government support. In this regard, programs to stimulate private farming are also being developed, especially in regions that have every opportunity to effectively realize their agro-industrial potential.

Problems of implementing the import substitution program

The main problems include the backwardness of the technical and technological platform, on which the efficiency of agro-industrial enterprises depends. This is due to the minimal income of commodity producers, which is not enough to modernize technical equipment. Market access for producers is also important. Again, backward and ineffective infrastructure does not allow import substitution in agriculture to achieve its goals in terms of improving the economic situation. This is especially true for small businesses that are forced to fight with large monopoly networks of producers from the domestic segment.

Indicators of the implementation of the import substitution program

At one time, indicators of the effectiveness of import substitution were included in the program for the strategic development of agriculture, and then moved into the doctrine of food security. At the moment, they are used to evaluate the strengthening of domestic production in the context of the lack of competition with foreign manufacturers, as envisaged by import substitution in Russia. Agriculture and, in particular, the pace of its development are assessed by indices of agricultural production, fixed capital of enterprises and the physical volume of investments.

Prospects for the development of the agricultural industry

In assessing the prospects for the development of the domestic agricultural complex, it is important to take into account natural, but negative factors that will slow down this process. Firstly, this is a logical decrease in income from imported products that Russian counterparties receive. Secondly, this is the inevitable modernization of the technical platform, which will require a considerable part of financial and organizational resources. Nevertheless, against this background, import substitution in Russian agriculture can show very noticeable rates of development in the main segments, including crop production, livestock breeding, grain production, etc. As the capacity of enterprises increases, the economic condition of market participants in this industry will naturally strengthen.

Conclusion

At this stage of the implementation of import substitution programs, we can state the fact that the domestic market is closed for imported products. But this does not mean that Russian farmers should abandon the experience of their foreign colleagues. In particular, import substitution in agriculture may well switch to the principles of so-called closed production within the industry. This means that the direct manufacturers of the products are also involved in promoting their products along the supply chain right up to the counter. This scheme, of course, requires a serious transformation of the models of interaction between market participants at different levels. However, this transition promises the same commodity producers a significant increase in profits, and consumers - a decrease in the cost of products.