In the i half of the year. Ria rating

Today in Moscow, under the chairmanship of the head of the Pension Fund of Russia Anton Drozdov, a meeting of the PFR Board was held, at which the results of the Fund's work in the first half of 2017 were summed up and tasks for the second half of the year were set. The meeting was attended via videoconference by the Secretary of State - Deputy Minister of Labor and social protection Andrey Pudov, members of the PFR Board, heads of all regional offices FIU.

In 2017, all pensions and benefits under the Pension Fund are paid throughout the country on time and in full.

In January 2017, pensioners received a lump sum payment of 5,000 rubles. This payment was received by absolutely all pensioners living in Russia: both civilians and military - a total of 43.7 million people. 221.7 billion rubles were allocated for these purposes.

The insurance pensions of 31.4 million non-working pensioners were increased by 5.8% in 2017 (by 5.4% on February 1 and by 0.38% on April 1). In August Pension Fund conducted an annual adjustment of insurance pensions for more than 9.1 million pensioners who worked in 2016. As a result, the average annual insurance old-age pension in 2017 is 13.7 thousand rubles (161% of the pensioner's subsistence level).

From April 1, 2017, state pensions, including social ones, were indexed by 1.5% for both working and non-working pensioners. This increase affected 3.9 million pensioners. As a result, in 2017 the average annual social pension is 8.8 thousand rubles (103.4% of the pensioner's living wage). The average annual amount of the social pension for children with disabilities and people with disabilities since childhood of group I is 13.2 thousand rubles.

As before, in 2017 in Russia there are no pensioners with a monthly income below living wage pensioner (PMP) in the region of residence. All non-working pensioners receive a social supplement to the pension up to the level of the PMP in the region of residence. In 2017, almost 4 million people receive federal social supplements through the PFR.

Since February 1, 2017, the amount of the monthly cash payment (UDV), which is received by 15.5 million federal beneficiaries, has been indexed by 5.4%.

In general, the Pension Fund’s expenses on pensions for the first half of 2017 amounted to 3.5 trillion rubles, exceeding the same indicator in 2016 by 389.9 billion rubles; spending on social security amounted to 225 billion rubles and exceeded the same indicator in 2016 by 7.8 billion rubles.

As part of the program state support families with children, during 2017, the territorial bodies of the PFR issued more than 470 thousand certificates for maternal capital. As a result, 8.2 million Russian families have received a state certificate over more than ten years of the program's operation.

The most popular way to spend maternity capital is the improvement of housing conditions - 92% of those who applied. Since the beginning of the maternity capital program, thanks to its funds living conditions improved almost 5 million Russian families. Of these, 3.1 million families partially or fully repaid housing loans with maternity capital. More than 1.8 million families have improved their living conditions without attracting loans.

In addition, the PFR accepted 449 thousand applications for the education of children, 3.6 thousand applications for the transfer of maternity capital funds to the mother's funded pension, and 90 applications for social adaptation and integration into society of children with disabilities.

58% of certificate holders have fully disposed of maternity capital funds.

The amount of maternity capital in 2017 is 453,026 rubles. To qualify for maternity capital, it is necessary that the child who entitles the certificate be born or adopted before December 31, 2018. At the same time, the very receipt of a certificate and the disposal of its funds are not limited by time.

The Pension Fund continues active work on the development of its electronic services. In 2017 features Personal account of a citizen on the PFR website have expanded significantly, as a result of which today it covers almost all payments from the PFR: pensions, monthly cash payments, federal social supplements for pensions, a set of social services, maternity capital, etc., and also informs about all established social benefits .

In the first half of 2017, more than 3.5 million people used the Personal Account electronic services. Ten more new services are planned to be launched in the Personal Account by the end of the year. It is important to note that PFR electronic services are available not only on the website of the Pension Fund and the public services portal, but also in a mobile application for smartphones, which the PFR introduced this spring.

In the light of the development of electronic services, the Pension Fund records an increase in the number of applications for the appointment of a pension in electronic form. So, on average in Russia, the share of citizens who submitted an electronic application for the appointment or change of pension delivery in 2017 is 62%. In some regions, this figure exceeds 90%: the Republic of Karelia (95.7%), the Republic of Buryatia (94.8%), the Republic of Adygea (93.2%), the Tambov Region (93.1%), the Volgograd Region (93% ).

In 2017, the PFR continues to provide subsidies to the budgets of the subjects Russian Federation for regional social programs. Distributed subsidies for total amount 1 billion rubles, of which: for the construction of ten facilities of social service organizations - 525.1 million rubles; repair of social service organizations, purchase of technical equipment, durable items and vehicles for mobile teams - 400.0 million rubles; computer literacy training for non-working pensioners - 50.0 million rubles. 50.0 million rubles have been allocated for the provision of targeted social assistance to victims of emergencies and natural disasters.

In 2017, the Pension Fund continues to implement two large-scale federal projects: the Federal Register of Disabled Persons (FRI) and the Unified State Information system social security (EGISSO). The launch of the FRI and EGISSO makes it possible to take into account the entire range of social benefits for all categories of citizens who receive state social support from the budgets of all levels. Their implementation makes it possible to increase the efficiency of social spending and the level of awareness of citizens about the rights to receive social support measures.

The Federal Register of the Disabled contains information on the establishment of disability for citizens, on the recommended by the ITU and the implemented measures for rehabilitation programs and other social benefits for disabled people. This avoids multiple and multidirectional document flow between authorities and the need for a disabled person to provide documents to receive services. Thanks to the FRI, the state, using the one-stop shop model, can have statistical information for analyzing assistance programs for people with disabilities in any parameter, whether it is providing them with technical means of rehabilitation or providing educational services.

As an information system, the FRI was put into operation on January 1, 2017. Since the end of 2016, the Personal Account of a Disabled Person has been operating in the trial operation mode and mobile app FRI. In 2017, active work was carried out and is being carried out to connect all departments to the system - both suppliers and users of IDF information, including at the level of subjects of the Russian Federation. In 2018, it is planned to expand the list of information providers and the volume of information transferred to the register, develop the functionality of the Personal Account in terms of creating thematic forums, and integrate the FRI with the EGISSO.

EGISSO will accumulate and provide the authorities with up-to-date information on social support measures provided to the population of Russia in a personalized form. The presence of such information in one source will allow the authorities to get a complete picture of the social security of an individual citizen and decide on his need for some form of social support.

In 2017, the PFR completed the development of the EGISSO platform, put the system into trial operation and is completing the connection of authorities to it state power who are providers and users of information. The launch of EGISSO into commercial operation - from January 2018.

Computers

The total volume of the computer market (desktop PCs and laptops) in the first half of the year amounted to 2415 thousand units, which is 25.5% more than in the same period last year. The market has fully recovered from the recession and has begun to actively offset the losses in installed fleet accumulated over previous years.

Notebooks accounted for 56% of PC shipments in physical terms. This time, the dynamics of mobile devices turned out to be higher than that of desktops, and amounted to 27.6%.

Stationary PCs grew by 23%.

The leading group of companies in the notebook market in the first half of the year was traditionally * Acer, Asus, Dell, HP and Lenovo. The total share of sales of the top five is 89%. This is slightly less than a year earlier, since local players with a cheap offer appeared in the segment.

For desktop PCs, Aquarius, Depo, HP, iRu and Lenovo lead*. In total, they accounted for 48%, i.e., as in the same period in 2016.

Tablets

In the first half of 2017, 1.8 million tablets worth about 19 billion rubles were shipped to Russia. On an annualized basis, the market decreased by 17% in units, and in monetary terms it fell by 21% in rubles. The market was overwhelmed by a general wave of saturation.

The leading group of companies included Digma, Irbis, Huawei, Lenovo and Samsung, they account for 60% of shipments in physical terms - in fact, the same as a year earlier. Market concentration parameters also remained at the previously reached level.

Printers and desktop MFPs

In the first half of 2017, the trend noted a year ago continued in the market of printers and desktop MFPs - a decrease in its quantitative volume and an increase in money. In total, 832 thousand printers and desktop MFPs were sold during this period, 10.8% less than a year earlier. The decline in demand for printing devices, as in many other countries, was facilitated by a reduction in print volumes as a result of the “digitization” of the office, but in Russia the decline was exacerbated by the weakening of effective demand in the mass consumer segment and the reduction of IT budgets in organizations due to the depreciation of the ruble .

At the same time in both quarters current year Cash sales grew at a double-digit pace and totaled $215 million for the half year, which is 30% more than in the same period in 2016.

In the laser segment, this process has accelerated due to supply reduction in the lower device categories. In total, 613.4 thousand laser printers and desktop MFPs were sold in the first half of the year, 15.7% less than in the first half of 2016. An increase in the share of faster devices, as well as an increase in prices for most models, led to an increase in sales in money, amounting to 177 million dollars.

Unlike laser, the market of inkjet devices for the second year in a row showed positive dynamics not only in money terms, but also in piece terms. In total, about 256 thousand inkjet printers and MFPs were sold in the first half of 2017, which is 3.3% more than this indicator previous year. In monetary terms, the growth rate was an order of magnitude higher (over 38%). The demand factor continued to play the main role here - a change in user preferences in favor of MFPs and models for photo and business applications.

Scanners

In the first half of this year, both main segments of the scanner market, flatbed and document, saw a decrease in sales.

Flatbed scanners, which sold 29,400 units in the first half of 2017, down 8.1% from a year earlier, continued to lose customers as their applications dwindled and alternative digitization options expanded. In monetary terms, the market grew in half a year by only 3.2% and amounted to $ 3.1 million. The growing need for the volume of scanned documents is forcing users to abandon slow flatbed scanners, giving preference to devices with automatic document feeders.

In the document scanner segment, the decrease in sales was not due to a decrease in user demand in SMBs, but to fewer large corporate shipments of scanners compared to the first half of last year. In monetary terms, the document scanner market continued to grow and amounted to USD 11.4 million, which is 13% more than in the first half of 2016. The main role here, as in other segments of the hardcopy market, was played by structural changes and price increases in dollars for many models.

photo paper

Reporting semester for Russian market cut sheet photo paper in packs for the first time last years showed a halt in sales decline. In total, 1.26 million reams of paper were sold for $8.7 million. The total area was 4.4 million square meters. m.

The top three included brands* Dexp, Epson (for the first time) and Lomond, their share in total accounted for about 63% of the market in terms of money. devices

Monitors

In the first half of 2017, about 1.2 million monitors with a total value of almost $200 million were sold on the Russian market. Compared to the same period last year, the market added 28% in physical terms and 34% in money terms. An uptrend is forming on the market, which should at least partially compensate for the losses of previous years. In 2017, the market was supported by significant tenders, as well as the end of the dollar depreciation cycle, due to which buyers were increasingly involved in the market.

Sales of 2K and 4K monitors are exponentially increasing, but their share is still small.

On the Russian market, one should note the destruction of the triumvirate, more precisely, its transformation into a "quartet". The AOC brand should now also be added to the company with Acer, Philips and Samsung.

Projectors

In the first half of 2017, the fall in the Russian projector market was replaced by a steady growth. In total, about 36.4 thousand projectors were sold during this period for almost $40 million, which more than made up for the losses of the previous year: the market increased by 17% in physical terms and by 26% in money terms. At the same time, there were no significant tenders, and the regular market was mostly restored. This growth was not hindered by the increasing popularity of “private” cross-border trade (purchases individuals projectors through Aliexpress).

The top three in 2017 remained the same*: Acer, BenQ and Epson. At the same time, the level of market concentration slightly increased compared to the previous year. The total share of leaders increased relative to the first half of 2016 by about 4.5% and reached almost 58%.

Dashboards

In the first half of 2017, 16.57 thousand professional panels (LFD) were sold in Russia in the amount of USD 52.75 million. In physical terms, the figures for the same period in 2016 were exceeded by 30%. In monetary terms, the growth was even higher - by 49%. Thanks to this, both in physical and monetary terms, the reporting half-year on the regular LFD market became the best for the entire time of its existence.

This year, 39-43-inch models returned to the first place, which accounted for almost 29% of sales in pieces, which was associated with good shipments of standard panels to the Digital Signage sector. The share of panels with a resolution of 4K (Ultra HD, 3840x2160), which began to gain popularity several years ago, has already amounted to 4% in units and 11.5% in money.

The LFD market is quite concentrated: the undisputed leader - Samsung Electronics - controls half of the entire market, and the top three - LG, NEC and Samsung account for more than 80% of all sales.

LED modular screens

LED Modular Screens (LED Modules) consist of small LED modules assembled from RGB LEDs. LED modules are a board with LEDs on the front side and electronic controls on the back. Different manufacturers produce modules of different sizes: 130x65mm, 160x160mm, 256x256mm, etc., which are then assembled into “cabinets”, and then into final screens.

In total, for the first half of 2017, the capacity of this segment is estimated at 632 installed screens with a total area of ​​11.7 thousand square meters. m. The average screen area was 40 square meters. m. The market capacity is estimated at 15.7 million dollars.

In monetary terms, outdoor (Outdoor) screens dominate, which accounted for about 70% of the market. Indoor (Indoor), respectively, 30%.

In general, in recent years ABSEN has been the leader in the regular Russian LED Modules market, offering a variety of indoor and outdoor solutions that cover the needs of most target markets.

In the first half of 2017, 540,000 devices were sold on the Russian AC UPS market for a total of $137 million. Compared to the same period in 2016, the market grew by 23% in physical terms and by 15% in money terms. This dynamics looks much better than a year earlier (+12% in real terms and +10% in monetary terms). The market has been growing for the second year in a row, which already allows us to speak about the formation of a confident upward trend.

The difference between the dynamics of natural and monetary indicators was associated with a major tender for the structures of Russian Post, which was shared by CyberPower and Powercom. Tens of thousands of light devices went here, which raised the entire market by about 15% (in physical terms) in the first quarter and at the same time somewhat skewed structural indicators.

In general, the competitive configuration of the market remains more or less stable: Schneider Electric and everyone else. In the mass market, the traditional top three* in the first half of the year are APC by Schneider Electric, Ippon and Powercom. Corporate: APC by Schneider Electric, Eaton and Delta Electronics.

For more information about the results of the first half of 2017 in various segments of the Russian IT market, see the magazine.

* Companies are listed in alphabetical order.

RIA Rating - 17 aug. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in the first half of 2017, GDP growth amounted to 1.7%. Positive dynamics was noted in industrial production, in agriculture, v construction industry. However, turnover continued to decline. retail, the real money income of the population decreased.

The all-Russian result was made up of the results of the development of individual regions, the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of which was heterogeneous. In order to assess regional trends in economic development, the experts of the RIA Rating Agency conducted an analysis of the socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2017, the results of which are given in the analytical bulletin "The socio-economic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation - Results of January-June 2017" .

Number of regions with positive dynamics industrial production increased significantly in the first half

In the first half of 2017, industrial production in Russia increased by 2.0%. Moreover, positive dynamics was recorded in each of the six months, except for February. A positive impact on the overall dynamics of industrial production was exerted by the growth in mining (+3.1%), in manufacturing (+1.2%) and in the provision of electrical energy, gas and steam; air conditioning (+2.5%). The fall was observed only in the sphere of “water supply; water disposal, organization of collection and disposal of waste, activities for the elimination of pollution” (-2.0%).

At the regional level, industrial production increased in most subjects of the Russian Federation. According to the results of the 1st half of 2017, growth in the industry was noted in 70 regions. Compared to the same period last year, a significant positive trend is noticeable - the number of such regions increased by 16.

The leader in the growth of industrial production in the 1st half of 2017 was the Republic of Altai (+47.8%). The country recorded growth in all four types of activities, and the most significant increase in production in the field of providing electricity, gas and steam; air conditioning (+60.0%). The dynamics of industrial production in the region has the character of a stable trend. Monthly growth has been recorded in the region since February 2016, that is, for 17 consecutive months.

The Republic of Dagestan ranks second in terms of industrial production growth rates. According to the results of January-June 2017, industrial production here increased by 40.3%. The most significant growth is observed in the field of processing (+50.6%). The production of finished metal products has increased significantly in the Republic, except for machinery and equipment (JSC Dagdiesel), the production of other Vehicle and equipment (JSC Concern KEMZ). Monthly positive dynamics of industrial production has been recorded in the region since August 2016.

The third position in terms of industrial production growth is occupied by the Jewish Autonomous Region (+39.6%). Here growth was driven by a significant increase in mining (+732.7%). Major Contributor to Industrial Growth autonomous region made by mining enterprises. Monthly growth has been observed in the republic since November 2016.

The fall in industrial production in the 1st half of 2017, according to Rosstat, is observed only in 14 subjects of the Russian Federation. In one region, the Chechen Republic, industrial production remained at the same level. The most significant decline occurred in the Republic of Buryatia. Industrial production in the region decreased by 26.4%. In the Republic, production decreased in all four areas of economic activity. The most significant drop was in manufacturing (-32.7%). Here, a decrease in production was observed in the production of other vehicles and equipment, in the production of clothing and furniture. in Chukotka autonomous region industrial production decreased by 7.8%, in the Komi Republic - by 7.7%, in the Udmurt Republic - by 7.1%. In other regions, the fall in industrial production in January-June 2017 did not exceed 5%.

According to the type of activity "Manufacturing", according to the results of the first half of 2017, positive dynamics was recorded. The index of industrial production in this sector amounted to 101.2%. The Republic of Dagestan became the leader in terms of production growth for this type of activity by a wide margin. In the republic, growth for the first half of 2017 amounted to 50.6%. In the Murmansk region, the Arkhangelsk region and the Yaroslavl region, production in the manufacturing sector grew by more than 20%. In particular, the production of vehicles and equipment has increased significantly in the Murmansk region, which is associated with the completion of the stage of ship repair work with a long cycle in the factory. Metallurgical production also demonstrated significant growth in the region. In total, in 67 regions, production in the processing sector increased. Compared to the first half of 2016, the number of such regions increased by 17.

According to the results of the 1st half of 2017, the Republic of Crimea, the Chechen Republic and the Vologda Oblast became the leaders in terms of growth in construction work

Volume construction works increased slightly in the first half of 2017. The increase was only 0.2%. However, compared to the same period of the previous year, significant positive changes are noticeable - in the first half of 2016, the volume of construction work decreased by 6.8%.

Among the regions of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Crimea, the Chechen Republic and the Vologda Oblast became the leaders in terms of growth in construction work in the first half of 2017. In these regions, the volume of construction work has more than doubled. In total, the positive dynamics of the construction industry was recorded in 36 subjects of the Russian Federation. In six regions, during each month of the first half of 2017, the volume of construction work was higher than in the same month of 2016. These are the Kaluga Region, the Vologda Region, the Kurgan Region, the Kemerovo Region, the Primorsky Territory and the Jewish Autonomous Region.

Retail turnover increased in 36 regions

In the first half of 2017, the decline in the retail sector continued, however, the rate of decline has noticeably slowed down. According to the results of the first half of 2017, the retail trade turnover in the Russian Federation as a whole decreased by 0.5%, while in the same period of 2016 the decline was at the level of 4.9%.

Retail trade turnover increased in 36 regions of the Russian Federation, and in three of them growth was observed in each of the six months of the first half of 2017 - these are the Chuvash Republic, the Omsk Region and the Khabarovsk Territory. The most significant (more than 10%) retail trade turnover increased in the city of Sevastopol and in the Omsk region. In 48 regions, retail trade turnover decreased, while in the Republic of Kalmykia it remained at the same level. For comparison, in the first half of 2016, retail trade turnover increased in 12 regions.

Real money incomes of the population in January-May 2017 grew only in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation

According to the results of January-May 2017, real money incomes of the population decreased again, however, the rate of decline also slowed down significantly. In general, in the Russian Federation, the indicator decreased by 1.4% in January-May 2017, and according to the results of the same period in 2016, the drop was at the level of 4.9%.

According to Rosstat, real money incomes of the population in January-May 2017 increased only in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Of these, the most significant growth was recorded in the Republic of Crimea (+6.1%). Of all the regions, only in one - in the Republic of Kalmykia, the real monetary income of the population grew every month out of five months of 2017. In the Orenburg region, the real incomes of the population remained at the same level, and in 64 subjects of the Russian Federation there was a fall.

The reduction in real cash income occurred despite the growth of nominal wages. According to the results of January-May 2017, the nominal wage the country as a whole increased by 7.2%. The increase occurred in all subjects of the Russian Federation. The largest increase (more than 10%) is observed in the Magadan region and in the city of Sevastopol.

The cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services on average in January-May 2017 in Russia increased by 6.2% and amounted to 14,500 rubles.

The ratio of cash income of the population to the cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services in January-May 2017 in the Russian Federation amounted to 1.97, which is lower than in the same period of the previous year (2.04). Compared to January-May 2016, the growth in the ratio of cash income and the cost of a set of consumer goods and services occurred only in 11 regions, and in 74 subjects of the Russian Federation this indicator decreased.

The leaders in the ratio of cash income to the cost of a fixed set of goods and services were the Nenets autonomous region, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Sakhalin Region. In total, in 16 regions the indicator exceeds 2.00. Compared to the same period last year, their number decreased by nine.

The number of regions with a relatively low level of income, on the contrary, has increased. In January-May 2017, cash income exceeded the cost of a set of consumer goods and services by less than 1.5 times in 18 regions of the Russian Federation, which is 6 regions more than in January-May 2016.

Unemployment fell in most regions

In the second quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation decreased. In April-June 2017, it amounted to 5.2%, while for the same period in 2016, the figure was at the level of 5.7%.

The reduction in the unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2017 occurred in 66 regions, in 5 regions the indicator did not change, and in 14 subjects of the Russian Federation the unemployment rate increased. Unemployment fell most significantly in the Republic of Ingushetia - by 3.6 percentage points to 27.3%. In nine other regions, unemployment fell by 2 percentage points or more.

Unemployment increased most significantly in the second quarter of 2017 in the Republic of Mari El - by 1.8 percentage points. In the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Republic of Dagestan, the unemployment rate increased by 1.5 percentage points or more.

Most high level unemployment in the Republic of Ingushetia, the Republic of Tyva, the Chechen Republic and the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, where the figure exceeds 13%.

In the first half of 2017, four key macroeconomic indicators increased in 7 constituent entities of the Russian Federation

The analysis carried out by RIA Rating experts made it possible to identify groups of regions with negative and positive dynamics in terms of key indicators in the first half of 2017. The index of industrial production, the increase in the volume of work performed by the type of activity "Construction", the increase in retail trade turnover and the dynamics of real cash income were taken into account.

Everything listed indicators showed positive dynamics in seven regions: in the Pskov region, the Republic of Dagestan, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Republic of Mordovia, the Tyumen region, the Republic of Tyva and Primorsky Krai.

The fall in key socio-economic indicators occurred in five constituent entities of the Russian Federation - the Smolensk region, the Komi Republic, the Leningrad region, the Volgograd region and the Republic of Buryatia.

The number of regions with a deficit budget in the first half of the year decreased

According to the data of the Federal Treasury, in January-May 2017, the volume of revenues of the consolidated budgets of all regions of the Russian Federation increased by 9.4% compared to the same period last year (+368.1 billion rubles). Consolidated budget revenues increased in 68 subjects of the Russian Federation. The leaders are the Republic of Crimea (+91.8%), the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (+83.6%) and the Kaliningrad Region (+77.1%). The reduction of budget revenues occurred in seventeen regions. The largest drop is observed in the Sakhalin region (31.6%), the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (-23.2%) and also in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug - Yugra (-22.6%).

Tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of all regions of the Russian Federation increased by 9.3% (+313.7 billion rubles). This is what ensured the growth of the total revenues of the consolidated budgets. Tax and non-tax revenues increased in 66 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The leader in the growth of tax and non-tax revenues is the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (+81.8%), where the largest contribution to the growth was made by income from the sale of tangible and intangible assets(+3.1 billion rubles). Tax and non-tax revenues in the Republic of Crimea also increased significantly (+70.3%). This was mainly due to an increase in corporate income tax collections (+10.6 billion rubles).

Decreased tax and non-tax revenues in nineteen constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The sharpest drop was noted in the Sakhalin Oblast (31.5%), where the volume of income from corporate income tax decreased significantly (-39.8 billion rubles). Also, a significant drop occurred in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (-26.1%), in which tax revenues on goods sold in the Russian Federation significantly decreased (-1.7 billion rubles).

According to the results of January-May 2017, the total surplus of the consolidated budgets of all regions of the Russian Federation amounted to 619.3 billion rubles, which is 43.9% more than in January-May 2016. Consolidated budgets were executed with a deficit only in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Compared to the same period last year, the number of such regions decreased by 15. In 65 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the consolidated budgets were executed with a surplus.

The results of the first half of the year showed that Russian economy entered a phase of recovery. Experts of the RIA Rating agency suggest that this trend should continue in the future.

Accordingly, we can expect positive changes in the economy of individual subjects of the Russian Federation. In particular, some improvement in the situation is possible in regions where the automotive industry and the pharmaceutical industry are developed. These areas in this moment focus on import substitution and demonstrate high production dynamics.

RIA Rating is a universal rating agency of the media group MIA "Russia Today" specializing in assessing the socio-economic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation, the economic condition of companies, banks, economic sectors, countries. The main activities of the agency are: the creation of ratings of regions of the Russian Federation, banks, enterprises, municipalities, insurance companies, valuable papers, other economic objects; complex economic research in the financial, corporate and government sectors.

“The warehouse real estate market is showing timid signs of a recovery in demand for high-quality warehouse space. The stagnation of the economy in Russia is perceived rather positively and encourages many market players to act more actively to fulfill their storage needs, which leads to a slow reduction in the share of vacant space. If the trend continues, then by the end of the year rental rates in liquid warehouse complexes with the most advantageous location near the Moscow Ring Road may slightly increase. In addition, an indicative trend for the market is the increased number of transactions for the acquisition of warehouse space by end users. In general, the number of requests for lease and purchase significantly exceeds the figures for the same period last year and, according to our forecasts, in 2017 the market will remain at the level of previous years in terms of transaction volume - 1 million m 2 . Many developers, seeing the increased activity on the part of potential consumers, began to actively unfreeze their projects. For example, Logistics Partners, PNK Group, Logopark Development and Infrastroy Bykovo have begun construction of speculative facilities,” comments Maksim Zagoruiko, Director of Industrial, Warehouse Real Estate, Land, Knight Frank, Russia and the CIS.

Main conclusions. The volume of warehouse space put into operation in the first half of the year decreased by almost two times compared to the same period last year and amounted to 135.5 thousand m 2 . According to the results of Q2 2017, the vacancy rate is at the level of 11.7%, which in absolute terms is about 1.5 million m2. The volume of transactions exceeded the same result of the previous year by 10% and amounted to 608.3 thousand m 2 . About 40% were closed involving retailers. The average declared rental rate for class A premises amounted to 3,700 rubles/m 2 /year, having decreased by 7.5% over 12 months.

*Changes compared to Q4 2016
** Triple net - excluding VAT, operating expenses and utility bills
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

Sentence. In the first half of 2017, the downward trend in the volume of new construction in the Moscow region continued, which began in 2015. In the first six months of this year, 135.5 thousand m 2 were put into operation, which is almost two times less than the volume of new commissioning in the results of the first half of 2016 (245 thousand m2). The total supply of quality warehouse space in the first half of the year in the Moscow region amounted to 12.8 million m 2 .

The total volume of commissioning of new high-quality warehouse facilities in the Moscow region is expected to reach 400–450 thousand m 2 by the end of the year.

The main volume (about 60%) of high-quality warehouse space put into operation in 6 months is located in the north of the Moscow region. The remaining facilities are located in the east and southwest of the Moscow region. With the prevailing general economic situation, and taking into account the current situation in the warehouse market, developers do not risk building speculative objects. Therefore, in the first half of 2017, only one such was introduced. The remaining warehouse areas were built according to the built-to-suit scheme.

Class A properties continue to be the most liquid on the market, so all commissioned in the first six months of 2017 belong to just such warehouse complexes.

The vacancy rate in 2017 Q2 slightly (by 0.3 p.p.) decreased compared to 2017 Q1 and reached 11.7%. Due to a significant increase in vacant space in the high-quality warehouse real estate market of the Moscow region, which occurred at the beginning of 2017, the share of vacant space in the first half of 2017 by 2.4 p.p. higher than the same indicator in 2016.

Demand. According to the results of the first half of the year, 608.3 thousand m 2 of high-quality warehouse space was purchased and leased on the Russian market, which is 10% higher than the same period last year. The share of the Moscow region decreased by 16 p.p. – up to 59% of the total volume of transactions in Russia, which in absolute terms is 356 thousand m 2 . The decrease in the share of the Moscow region is explained by the growth in the volume of transactions in other regions of Russia, which in the first half of the year amounted to 184 thousand m 2 (30% of the total volume of transactions).

In the first half of 2017, the trend towards a decrease in the share of retailers in the total volume of transactions continued, and now it is 40%. At the same time, they continue to hold a leading position among tenants and buyers of warehouse space. The decrease in the share of retail operators in the total volume of transactions was mainly due to an increase in the share of distribution companies and a slight increase in the share of manufacturing companies.

The average transaction size in the first half of the year in the Moscow region amounted to 13.2 thousand m2, which is 1.5 thousand m2 less than the same value in 2016, which was a record for the first half of the year in the entire history of the market.

Traditionally, the largest volume of transactions falls on the north and south of the Moscow region, where, according to the results of the first half of 2017, a total of 46% of all transactions were concluded, which is associated with a large volume of supply in these directions and a developed transport infrastructure. Compared to H1 2016, the share of transactions in the east of the region increased from 6% to 19%. This growth has been driven by several big deals that happened here for reporting period. However, it is impossible to say that demand is shifting to the east of the Moscow region.

The share of transactions for the purchase of warehouse facilities by end users continues to remain at a low level: according to the results of the first half of the year - about 7% in the total volume of transactions. It should be noted that in the same period last year, the share of purchase transactions was only 2.5%.

Commercial terms. According to the results of the 1st half of 2017, the average declared rental rate for class A warehouse premises decreased by 7.5% compared to the 1st half of 2016 and reached 3,700 rubles/m 2 /year (triple net - excluding VAT, operating expenses and utility bills). In class B, the average declared rental rate has not changed over the past 12 months and amounted to 3,000 rubles/m 2 /year.

1.5 million m 2 of vacant space has a significant impact on the dynamics of rental rates, preventing rates from rising. In order to attract tenants, the owners of objects are forced to conclude lease agreements for 5–7 years with the possibility of early termination after 3–4 years. In addition to the conditions for early termination under agreements, developers are also flexible with regard to other commercial conditions: this is an increase in rental holidays, installment payments under the agreement.

Forecast. We expect that the total volume of warehouse space put into operation in the market of the Moscow region by the end of the year may reach about 400 thousand m 2 . A significant amount of vacant space and low rental rates make development economically unfeasible, which leads to postponing the implementation of new projects.

The volume of transactions in the Moscow region at the end of 2017 will amount to about 1 million m 2, which corresponds to the level of 2016. Retailers, which were the locomotive of demand in the Moscow region in 2014–2016, have completed the optimization of their warehouse capacities in Moscow and now are actively developing warehouse space in the regions, however, at the same time, the activity of companies from other sectors (production, distribution) has increased, which allows maintaining market demand at a level comparable to previous years.

In our opinion, the low volume of commissioning of new facilities and the continuing demand for high-quality warehouse property in the Moscow region will allow the share of vacant space to decrease to 11% by the end of 2017. The facilities that will be commissioned before the end of 2017 will not have a significant impact on the growth of vacant space, since most of them are built according to the built-to-suit scheme .

Even though the requested rental rates have reached minimum values, a large amount of vacant space still has a strong impact on the indicator, which, according to our forecasts, may lead to a slight decrease (by 3-5%) until the end of 2017.

Analysts from Knight Frank assessed the situation on the Moscow office market, outlined the key trends in the first half of 2017, and also voiced forecasts for the development of the capital's office real estate market.

Dynamics* of key indicators of the Moscow office market

*Change compared to Q4 2016.
** Excluding operating expenses and VAT (18%). The rate of operating expenses does not take into account changes related to the increase in property tax.

Konstantin Losyukov, Director of Office Real Estate Department, Knight Frank: “We are seeing a significant decrease in the commissioning of new business centers in the first half of 2017. Indeed, why build new ones if the market offers hundreds of thousands of empty meters? It cannot be said that the office real estate market is in stagnation. Rather, it is going through post-crisis stages. The main thing is that there is a stable, albeit moderate, demand, which leads to a decrease in the amount of vacant space following the results of this half-year, especially in class B, which is most in demand in times of crisis. And now in the segment the value of the share of vacant space is approaching the traditional levels of 8-12% for European markets. In class "A" offices, this figure is still high - about 20%.

With the current pace of construction of business centers and the volume of demand, it may take another 2-3 years to overcome the consequences of the crisis. If there are new positive factors for economic growth, such as rising oil prices, the strengthening of the ruble, the lifting of sanctions, then the process of market recovery will go faster.”

Offer on the Moscow office market

According to the results of the first half of 2017, the total supply of high-quality office space in Moscow amounted to 15.9 million sq.m., of which 25%, or 3.9 million sq.m. million sq.m, - class "B".

In the first half of 2017, the downward trend in the commissioning of new facilities continued. During the period under review, 21,000 sq.m. were commissioned, which is 8 times less than the same indicator in 2016. Developers are postponing the start of construction of new facilities, and the deadlines for completion of those already under construction are being postponed. Often, developers reduce the office component of projects or completely abandon it.

According to the results of the first half of 2017, the share of vacant space in Class A offices amounted to 19.1%, which is equivalent to 760,000 sq.m in absolute terms. Class B offices have 1.27 million sqm vacant, which is 14.1% of the total supply. Due to the low volume of commissioning of new facilities and the presence of a small but stable demand, the share of vacant space is slowly but declining. Class A offices saw a decrease of 1.6 p.p. compared to the end of 2016, while class B offices decreased by 1.4 p.p.

Dynamics of indicators of commissioning volumes, net absorption
and level of vacant office space

Until the end of 2017, a slight increase in the share of vacant space in class A offices is expected compared to the first half of 2017 due to the commissioning of new office centers. In class "B" offices, the value of the vacancy rate will continue to decline.

Demand for office space in Moscow

The second quarter of 2017 continued the trend of the first quarter, when the volume of transactions with office real estate in Moscow turned out to be significantly less than similar indicators for previous periods.

According to the results of the first half of 2017, the volume of transactions with class A and B offices in Moscow amounted to 185,000 sq.m., which is more than 2 times less than in the same period of 2016.

The terms of exposition of office objects have increased, and we are witnessing the return to the market of the practice of concluding exclusive contracts for the lease of an object with consultants, which are offered by the owners of those objects where they cannot find a tenant for a long time.

Despite the fact that the largest transactions for the reporting period belong to companies from banking sector and the retail sector, the largest total volume of transactions in the first half of 2017 was concluded by manufacturing companies.

Unlike previous years, when one of the sectors could account for more than 30% of the total volume of transactions, in the first half of 2017, demand from companies from various sectors is more even, and the share of each of them does not exceed 18%.

from company profile

* Goods of daily demand.
** Technology/Media/Telecommunications.
*** Transport and Logistics/Non-Profit Organizations.

The traffic situation in the city center worsening every month and the availability of a choice of free space in high-quality office buildings outside the Garden Ring increased the demand for premises located in the area of ​​the Third Transport Ring. The share of new lease transactions in this area in the first half of 2017 amounted to more than 40%. There is also an increase in the share of new lease transactions in office centers located in the area between the Third Ring Road and the Moscow Ring Road.

A shift in demand to areas between the Third Transport Ring and the Moscow Ring Road is also noted by incoming requests from potential tenants, who are most often looking for offices in the Northwestern business district of Moscow.

Distribution of rented and purchased office space depending on
on the type of transaction and the location of the office building

In the first half of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016, there was an increase in the number of transactions with office blocks with an area of ​​up to 500 sq.m. The share of such small transactions in the total number for the first six months was 39%, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the same period in 2016.

During the first half of 2017, it was expected that large holdings that unite several affiliated companies would consolidate and optimize their office space. However, while actively analyzing the Moscow office real estate market during the first six months of 2017, most of the companies that planned such a consolidation abandoned this idea. Thus, there were no large transactions in the market with office blocks larger than 20,000 - 30,000 sq.m, which could have a significant impact on the overall volume of transactions and net absorption.

Key transactions for the lease and sale of office space in Moscow in the first half of 2017

Commercial conditions for renting offices in the capital

A slight increase in the weighted average asking rental rates in Class B offices, which was noted in Q1 2017, did not continue in Q2 2017: rates began to decline again. According to the results of the first half of 2017, the drop was 0.7%, and the indicator itself reached the value of 13,289 rubles/sq.m/year.

According to the results of the first half of 2017, the weighted average rental rate in Class A offices continued to decline and reached RUB 22,904/sq.m/year, having decreased by almost 6% since the beginning of the year.

It is worth noting that in class B offices one can observe some stabilization of the weighted average asking rental rate. After a dramatic drop in rates, which was observed from the end of 2014 to mid-2016 with a quarterly rate of decline by 3-6%, at the end of 2016 - the first half of 2017, the value of the weighted average asking rental rate stabilized, and quarterly fluctuations are within 1%.

Forecast for the development of the Moscow office real estate market

Knight Frank experts expect that by the end of 2017, office centers will be put into operation, the commissioning of which was scheduled for the first half of 2017, as well as objects previously scheduled for commissioning in the second half of the year. However, the total annual volume of new supply will not exceed 250,000 sq.m., which is a new “anti-record”.

* Excluding operating expenses and VAT (18%).

According to Knight Frank analysts, by the end of 2017, the share of vacant space in class B offices will continue to decline and will amount to about 13.7%. At the same time, the share of vacant space in class A offices due to the commissioning of new facilities will increase slightly - up to 20.2%.

The average asking rental rates for high-quality office space in Moscow will stabilize by the end of the year, and possible fluctuations will be 2-3% compared to the level of the indicator at the end of the first half of 2017.

In general, no significant changes are expected in the office market until the end of the year, and the end of the year will be similar to its beginning in terms of key indicators and trends.

Review prepared by Knight Frank specialists