A country with the first type of population reproduction. Types and features of population reproduction in various groups of countries and regions of the world

>>Geography: Population size and reproduction

Population size and reproduction

1. World population: very fast growth!

Geographers and demographers make extensive use of population census data in their work. Ever since the beginning of the 19th century. there were more than 2,000 such censuses in the world, which today in most developed countries are carried out every five or ten years. .

According to estimates by demographic statisticians, more than 100 billion people have been born on Earth in the entire history of mankind. But throughout most of this history population growth was slow, and acceleration came only in the period of modern and especially modern times. So, over the past millennium, the first doubling of the population took 600 years, for the second 250, for the third about 100, and for the fourth a little more than 40 years. This means that never before has the world population increased as rapidly as in the middle and second half of the 20th century! In 1950, it reached 2.5 billion, in 1980, 4.4 billion, and in 2006, 6.5 billion people. .

Example. If at the beginning of the twentieth century the absolute annual increase in the population of the Earth was 10 - 15 million, and in the middle of the century 40-50 million, then in the 80-90s of the twentieth century. it reached 80-85 million people, which exceeds the number of inhabitants in any European state, except Russia.

1 Ethnology ( ethnography, from Greek. ethpos tribe, people) is the science of the origin of peoples (ethnic groups), their characteristic features and the relationship between them, which are determined by ethnic processes.

2 Demography(from the Greek detos people and ggapho I write) the science of the patterns of population reproduction, studying its size, natural increase, age and sex composition, etc.

However, in different regions of the world, the population today is growing differently: in some slowly, in others faster, and in others very quickly. This is due to the different nature of its reproduction. (Exercise 1.)

2. The concept of population reproduction.

The scientific theory of population considers the population involved in labor like g the main productive force of society, the basis of all social production. Constantly interacting with nature (the geographical environment), the population plays an active role in its transformation. At the same time, the population, and each of you feels it for yourself, also acts as the main consumer of all created wealth. That's why number population is one of the important factors in the development of each country, and of all mankind.

In turn, population growth depends on the nature of its reproduction.

Under the reproduction (natural movement) of the population is understood the totality of the processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensure the continuous renewal and change of human generations.

Fertility, mortality, natural population growth are basically biological processes. But nevertheless, the socio-economic conditions of people's lives, as well as the relationship between them in society and in the family, have a decisive influence on them. . The mortality rate depends primarily on the material conditions of people's lives: nutrition, sanitary and hygienic conditions of work and life, on the development health care. The birth rate also depends on the socio-economic structure of society, on the living conditions of people. But this dependence is much more complex and controversial, causing a lot of controversy in science. As a rule, as prosperity and culture grow, women become more and more involved in industrial and social activities, the duration of children's education increases, and the “price of a child” generally increases, the birth rate decreases. But the growth of incomes can also serve as an incentive to increase it.

A very large negative impact on the reproduction of the population is exerted by wars, primarily world wars, which lead to huge human losses both as a result of direct military operations, and as a result of the spread of hunger and disease, and the breaking of family ties.

In the most simplified, generalized form, we can talk about two types of population reproduction.

3. The first type of population reproduction: the demographic crisis.

The first type of population reproduction is characterized by low birth rates, death rates and, accordingly, natural growth. It became widespread primarily in the economic developed countries, where the proportion of elderly and old people is constantly growing; this in itself reduces the birth rate and increases the death rate of the population.

However, in addition to the demographic factor, socio-economic reasons also play an important role, causing increased mortality from diseases, disorder in life, military conflicts, an increase in crime, industrial injuries, various natural and man-made disasters, accidents, as well as from deterioration in the quality of environment. But even among the countries of the first type of reproduction, three subgroups can be distinguished. First, these are countries with an average annual natural population growth of approximately 0.5% (or 5 people per 1,000 inhabitants, or 5%0). In such countries, examples of which are the United States, Canada, Australia, a fairly significant increase in population is ensured.

This requires that approximately half of all families have two children, and half three. Two children over time "replace" their parents, and the third not only covers the loss from illnesses, accidents, etc., and compensates for the lack of offspring among the childless. but also provides a sufficient overall increase.

Secondly, these are countries with zero natural growth or close to it. Such an increase no longer ensures an expanded reproduction of the population, which usually stabilizes at the achieved level.
Example. All countries of the second subgroup are in Europe. These are Belgium, Denmark, Portugal, Poland. Sweden. The population in these countries is no longer growing.

Thirdly, these are countries with a negative natural increase, i.e., those where the death rate exceeds the birth rate.
As a result, the number of their inhabitants not only does not grow, but even decreases. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation 1(or demographic crisis). It is most typical for Europe.

Example. At the beginning of the XXI century. In Europe, there were already 15 countries with negative natural population growth. Of the CIS countries, they include Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, in which the socio-economic crisis that occurred in the 90s affected the indicators of natural population growth. 20th century (see table 12 in "Appendices").

1 D e pop u l i qi i(from the French depopulatiop) a decrease in the population of a country, region as a result of narrowed reproduction, leading to its absolute loss.

The transition from a large family characteristic of old Russia to a small family took place in our country during the period of the existence of the Soviet Union. But in the 90s. 20th century First of all, with the emergence of a deep socio-economic crisis, a real “collapse)) of natural population growth began. The birth rate in Russia (10.4 people per 1000 inhabitants) and at the beginning of the XXI century. remains very low.

Until relatively recently, the type of population reproduction that has developed in economically developed countries was often called rational. However, in the first half of the 90s of the twentieth century. its indicator dropped to 2% 0, and at the beginning of the XXI century. actually became zero. At the same time, many European countries have already entered the demographic crisis which adversely affects or may affect their entire development in the future.

4. The second type of population reproduction: population explosion.

For in topogo type of reproduction The population is characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low mortality rates. It is typical primarily for developing countries.

After gaining independence, these countries were able to make wider use of the achievements of modern medicine, sanitation and hygiene, primarily to combat epidemic diseases. This led to a rather sharp reduction in mortality. The birth rate, for the most part, remained at high level.

Of course, this is largely due to the persistence of thousands of years of tradition of early marriage and large families. . The average family size is now 6 people; as a rule, this is a three-generation family (parents, their children and grandchildren). In addition, it remains the main means of preserving living wage and children still serve as the main support of parents in old age. Yes, and infant mortality in these countries is still significant. Factors such as the prevalence of rural population, insufficient level of education, weak involvement of women in production.

At the beginning of the XXI century. the average annual rate of natural growth in developing countries was 1.6%, that is, it was 16 times higher than in economically developed countries!

But even against this background, the least developed countries stand out, where 800 million people live, or more than 1/10 of the world's population. They are distinguished by the highest birth rates and natural growth (2.4%); that is why it is among them that one should look for “world record holders”.

You will find “record holders” in terms of average annual population growth among the countries of Tropical Africa and Southwest Asia. . (Task 2.)

Such a phenomenon of rapid population growth in countries of the second type of reproduction in the middle of the twentieth century. received a figurative name in the literature population explosion. Today, these countries (together with China) account for more than 4/5 of the total population of the planet and more than 95% of it. annual growth. This means that out of 130 million children born each year, 124 million are born in developing countries. Including the population of Asia annually increases by about 40 million people, Africa by almost 30 million, Latin America by more than 9 million.

If in 1900 of the 15 largest countries in the world by number of inhabitants seven were in Europe, five in Asia and three in America, then in 2005 only two remained in this list. European countries(Germany and Russia), but now there are eight Asian (China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines), as well as three American (USA, Brazil, Mexico), two African (Nigeria, Egypt) (see .table 14 in the "Appendices").

Along with this, it is impossible not to pay attention to the fact that in some more "advanced" developing countries, a rather noticeable decrease in the rate of natural population growth has already begun. Examples of this kind are Brazil, India, Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia. And China, Argentina, Chile, Sri Lanka, Thailand have actually moved into the group of countries of the first type of reproduction.

Nevertheless, developing countries have and will continue to have a decisive impact on the size and reproduction of the population, primarily by determining demographic situation worldwide.(Creative task 3.)

5. Demographic policy management of population reproduction.

Nowadays, most countries of the world seek to manage the reproduction of the population by conducting a state demographic policy.

Demographic policy is a system of administrative, economic, propaganda and other measures by which the state influences the natural movement of the population (primarily the birth rate) in the desired direction. It is clear that the direction of demographic policy depends primarily on the demographic situation in a given country.

In countries of the first type of population reproduction, demographic policy is predominant, aimed at increasing the birth rate and natural population growth. It is carried out mainly with the help of various stimulating economic measures, such as one-time loans to newlyweds, benefits for the birth of each child, monthly allowances for children, paid holidays, etc. France, Japan, and Russia can serve as examples of countries pursuing an active demographic policy.

Most of the countries of the second type of reproduction in recent decades began to implement a demographic policy aimed at reducing the birth rate and natural population growth. Perhaps the greatest efforts in this regard are made by the two most big countries world China and India.

Example 1 The Chinese Constitution states that spouses must carry out planned childbearing. A committee on planned childbearing has been created, and permission from local authorities must be obtained for the birth of a child. A later age for marriage has been established. During the period of study at the institute, marriages, as a rule, are not allowed. The main motto of the demographic policy of the People's Republic of China is: "One family - one child." The implementation of this policy has already yielded results.

Example 2 India was the first developing country to adopt a national family planning program as an official program back in 1951. public policy. The age of marriage was significantly raised, mass voluntary sterilization of the population is carried out, a family of four is promoted under the motto: "We are two - we are two." As a result of these measures, the birth rate and natural increase decreased somewhat, but nevertheless, almost 1/5 of all newborns in the world are children born in India.

However, many difficulties arise in the way of implementing demographic policy, not only financial and economic, but also moral and ethical. In the 90s of the twentieth century. Especially great discussions were caused by the question of the right of a woman to terminate a pregnancy, which the Catholic Church sharply opposed. . Many Muslim Arab countries, especially in Southwest Asia, for reasons of religious morality generally reject any "family planning" measures. No demographic policy is pursued by most of the least developed countries of Tropical Africa.

6. Theory of demographic transition.

An important scientific basis for conducting demographic policy is the theory demographic transition, which explains the sequence of changes in demographic processes. The scheme of such a transition itself includes four successive stages.

For first stage, which covered almost the entire history of mankind, were characterized by very high birth and death rates and, accordingly, very low natural increase; now it is almost never seen.

Second phase characterized by a sharp reduction in mortality (thanks primarily to the successes of medicine) while maintaining the traditional high birth rate. This "fork" between the first and second indicators became the initial cause of the population explosion.

The third stage is characterized by the persistence of low mortality rates (and sometimes even their slight increase associated with the “aging” of the population). The birth rate is also declining, but usually still slightly exceeds the death rate, ensuring a moderate expanded reproduction and population growth.

When moving to fourth stage birth and death rates are the same. This means a transition to population stabilization. (Task 4.)

7. The quality of the population as a new complex concept.

Recently, in science and practice, indicators that characterize not only the quantity but also the quality of the population have become increasingly important. This is a complex, complex concept that takes into account economic (employment, per capita income, caloric intake), social (level of health care, security of citizens, development of democratic institutions), cultural (level of literacy, provision of cultural institutions, printed products), environmental (state of the environment) and other living conditions.

Recently the UN and others international organizations in determining the quality of the population of the country, the main attention is paid to the state of his health, which, in turn, largely depends on the level of health care, the general standard of living. In the second half of the twentieth century. notable progress has been made in this respect, including in developing countries. However, many problems still remain unresolved.

Example. The world average infant mortality rate is 55 children per 1,000 live births. In economically developed countries, it is only 8 children, while in developing countries it is 60, and in the least developed 100. Moreover, in Africa and Asia there are still countries where this figure reaches 150-160 (Liberia, Niger, Sierra Leone, Afghanistan ).

Another important generalizing criterion for the state of health of a nation is the indicator life expectancy one . At the beginning of the XXI century. it averages 66 years for the whole world (64 years for men AND 68 years for women). The corresponding figures for economically developed countries are 72 and 80, for developing countries 62 and 66, including 51 and 53 for the least developed countries.

Example 1 The highest average life expectancy in the world in Japan is 82 years (men 79, women 86). Sweden, Iceland, Spain, Canada have almost the same figures (see Table 15 of the Appendix).

Example 2 The lowest average life expectancy in the world is in the African countries of Zambia and Sierra Leone (32-34 years). Similar indicators are slightly higher for some other countries of Tropical Africa (see table 15 of the "Appendices").

1 Average life expectancy - life expectancy of the population, which is determined using calculations based on the theory of probability. It depends both on biological, hereditary characteristics, and on the conditions of nutrition, work, life. Measured in years.

Average life expectancy in Russia in the 90s. decreased under the influence of the socio-economic crisis, amounting to about 65.3 years in 2005 (59 years for men and 72 years for women). By the way, there is no such a huge gap between the indicators of both sexes in any other country in the world.

Another important indicator of the quality of the population is the level of literacy. In economically developed countries, illiteracy has actually been completely or almost completely eliminated. But in the developing countries, in spite of the recent progress, the level of education as a whole is still quite low, especially among the rural inhabitants.

Example. In Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, more than 80% of all residents are illiterate, in Somalia more than 70%, in Senegal, Liberia, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Bangladesh more than 50%.

According to the UN, in 1990 about 960 million people could neither read nor write. Since then, with the ongoing population explosion, the total number of illiterates has fallen by 150 million. The absolute number of illiterate people is particularly high in South and East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In South Asia, illiterates make up about half of the total population.

To maintain a simple reproduction of the population, it is necessary that 100 women produce 205 children.

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Types and modes of population reproduction

Archetype

In accordance with the change in the totality of demographic indicators, it is customary to distinguish three main historical type population reproduction. The first and earliest of these is the so-called archetype of population reproduction. He dominated the primitive society, which was at the stage of the appropriating economy, and is now very rare, for example, among some tribes of the Indians of the Amazon. These peoples have such a high mortality rate that their numbers are declining.

Traditional (patriarchal)

The second type of reproduction, "traditional" or "patriarchal", dominates the agrarian or early stages industrial society. The main distinguishing features are very high birth and death rates, low average life expectancy. Having many children is a custom that contributes to better family activities in an agrarian society. High mortality is a consequence of the low standard of living of people, their hard work and poor nutrition, insufficient development of education and medicine. This type of reproduction is typical for many underdeveloped countries - Nigeria, Niger, India, Somalia, Uganda, Afghanistan, Yemen, Myanmar, Bangladesh and especially for Ethiopia and Angola, where the birth rate is 45 ‰, the death rate is 20 ‰ [ ], and the average life expectancy is only 43-47 years.

In a significant part of developing countries (Mexico, Brazil, Philippines, Pakistan, Libya, Thailand, South Africa, etc.), the "traditional" type of population reproduction has changed over the past decades. The death rate has dropped to 6-10‰ due to advances in medicine. But the traditionally high birth rate is largely preserved. As a result, the population growth here is very high - 2.5-3.0% per year. It is these countries with a “transitional” type of population reproduction that predetermine the high growth rates of the world population at the end of the 20th century.

Modern (rational)

The third, so-called "modern" or "rational" type of population reproduction, is generated by the transition from an agrarian economy to an industrial one. This type of reproduction is characterized by low birth rates, near-average mortality rates, low natural increase, and high average life expectancy. It is typical for economically developed countries with a higher standard of living and culture of the inhabitants. The low birth rate here is closely related to the conscious regulation of the size of families, and the death rate is primarily affected by high percent elderly persons.

Population reproduction mode

The process of self-preservation of the population in the course of continuous changes is called the reproduction of the population, and it is this that is the subject of demography. Reproduction of the population - the constant renewal of the size and structure of the population during the change of generations of people based on fertility and mortality, as well as migration. The set of parameters that determine this process is called population reproduction regime.

Population reproduction rates

Gross reproduction rate

The gross reproduction rate of the population is calculated on the basis of the number of girls that each woman will give birth to on average during her entire reproductive period and is equal to the total fertility rate multiplied by the proportion of girls among newborns:

R = Δ × T F R = Δ × ∑ 15 49 A S F R x (\displaystyle R=\Delta \times TFR=\Delta \ \times \sum _(15)^(49)ASFR_(x))

R (\displaystyle R)- gross reproduction rate
T F R (\displaystyle TFR)- total fertility rate
A S F R x (\displaystyle ASFR_(x))- age-specific fertility rates
∆ (\displaystyle \Delta )- proportion of girls among newborns

If the calculation is carried out at 5-year intervals, namely such data are usually available, then the formula for calculating the gross reproduction rate has an additional factor of 5 in its last part.

Net reproduction rate of the population (Böka-Kuchinsky coefficient)

Otherwise, the net reproduction rate of the population is called the net reproduction rate of the population. It is equal to the average number of girls born in a woman's lifetime and surviving to the end of the reproductive period at given birth and death rates.

The net reproduction rate of the population is calculated using the following approximate formula (for data on 5-year age groups):

R 0 = Δ ∑ 15 49 ASFR x 1000 × L xl 0 (\displaystyle R_(0)=\Delta \ \sum _(15)^(49)(\frac (ASFR_(x))(1000))\times (\frac (Lx)(l_(0))))

All designations are the same as in the formula for the gross coefficient 5L x (\displaystyle 5Lx) and - respectively, the number of people living in the age interval (x + 5) years from the table of female mortality, and l 0 (\displaystyle l_(0)) is its root. The factor 1000 in the denominator of the fraction is added in order to calculate the net rate per woman.

True Rate of Natural Increase

The net reproduction rate of the population () shows that the number of a stable population corresponding to the real one with the given general birth and death rates, which are taken unchanged, changes (that is, increases or decreases) in R 0 (\displaystyle R_(0)) once in a while T, that is, for the length of a generation. Taking this into account and accepting the hypothesis of exponential growth (decline) of the population, we can obtain the following relationship linking the net coefficient and the generation length:

• "Transition":
  • the death rate is reduced to 6-10 ‰ due to advances in medicine
  • traditionally high birth rate is maintained or reduced at a slow pace
  • very high population growth - 2.5-3% per year

It is typical for Mexico, Brazil, India, etc. - it is due to them that high population growth rates in the world are observed at the end of the 20th century.

The type of reproducibility of an industrial society. It is typical for economically developed countries with a high standard of living and culture of the population.

The combination of birth and death rates determines the features of the process of constant renewal of generations of people. The main trend in the demographic development of society is a gradual decrease in the level of both fertility and mortality.. However, the dynamics of each of the indicators, their ratio and, as a result, the magnitude of natural growth vary significantly both in time and space. The evolution of fertility and mortality is well reflected in the concept of the so-called "demographic transition". The essence of this theory boils down to the fact that fertility and mortality are determined not so much by biological laws as by socio-economic conditions. According to this theory, the demographic situation in various countries and regions of the world has a similar development trend. Initially, it is characterized by high rates of both fertility and mortality. Then the death rate begins to gradually decrease due to the improvement of socio-economic conditions, while the birth rate remains at the same level or decreases at a much slower rate than the death rate. Further, both the birth rate and the death rate gradually stabilize at a low level.

In accordance with the evolution of society, different countries and regions of the Earth are today at different stages of demographic development, which predetermine the existence at the same time of several historical types of population reproduction , characterized by a set of demographic indicators.

First and the earliest of them, the so-called archetype reproduction of the population, which corresponds to the first phase of the "demographic transition". He dominated the primitive society, which was at the stage of the appropriating economy, and is now very rare, for example, among some tribes of the Indians of the Amazon. These peoples mortality so high that them number may be reduced .

In a significant part of the developing countries (Mexico, Brazil, the Philippines, etc.), the "traditional" type of population reproduction has changed over the past decades. The mortality rate has dropped significantly (to 6-10%) due to improved health care and medical advances in the fight against infectious diseases. But the traditionally high birth rate is largely preserved. As a result, the population growth here is very high - 2.5 - 3.0% per year. It is these countries with a "transitional" type of population reproduction that predetermine the high growth rates of the world's population in the second half of the 20th century.

The third, so-called " modern" or "rational" type reproduction of the population, is generated by the transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy, a decrease in human dependence on nature. The conditions for the reproduction of demographic relations are changing radically, becoming more flexible and allowing for broad freedom of individual choice. This type of population reproduction is characterized low birth rate , close to the global average mortality rate , low natural increase and high average duration life. It is typical for economically developed countries with a higher standard of living and culture of the inhabitants. The low birth rate here is closely related to the conscious regulation of the size of families, and the high percentage of elderly people primarily affects the mortality rate. In Germany and Denmark, the death rate prevails over the birth rate, and their population is growing only due to migration.

In today's world, mortality rates in most countries do not differ much. Although it should be noted that the reasons for this situation are different. For example, in Western Europe, much more favorable socio-economic conditions for people's lives have been created than in developing countries, and the average life expectancy is higher here, but at the same time, mortality rates are comparable, and sometimes even higher, than in developing countries. This is due to the fact that in the countries of Western Europe there is a large proportion of the elderly (there is an "aging of the nation"). Therefore, one of the approaches separates the types of population reproduction mainly in terms of the birth rate. In accordance with this approach, two types of population reproduction are distinguished:

The first type of reproduction ("demographic winter") is characterized by low birth rates (up to 15%o) and low or medium mortality. As a result, the natural increase for countries with this type of reproduction is not high and does not exceed 10%. This type of reproduction is typical for economically developed countries. In countries with the 1st type of population reproduction, even demographic crises can be observed, i.e. natural population decline.

The second type of reproduction (“demographic spring”) is characterized by high birth rates and, as a result, high natural population growth. Mortality with this type of reproduction can be medium, and sometimes low. Developing countries belong to the second category.

It should be noted that the division of countries and territories according to the types of population reproduction is very conditional. There are many countries whose demographic development today does not have pronounced features of one or another type of population reproduction. Therefore, specific indicators of natural population growth are often used to characterize countries. According to this indicator, countries and territories are divided into five groups (see table).

The typology of population reproduction can be approached from different positions. Based on the history of its formation, then, as we have already noted, it is customary to distinguish three successive types - the archetype, the traditional type and the modern type. If we talk only about the modern type, then significant differences are also found in it. Therefore, demographers began to distinguish two (or three) types of reproduction, already characteristic of our era. This approach has also been transferred to the educational literature. In any case, such a two-term typology can already be found in a school textbook " Economical geography foreign countries", which was written

Rice. 57. Two types of population reproduction

back in the 60s. 20th century It is present in the latest textbooks on the socio-economic geography of the world. Therefore, you need to get acquainted with these two types.
The first type of population reproduction is characterized by low birth and death rates and, accordingly, natural increase. This type of reproduction has become widespread primarily in economically developed countries that are in the third stage of the demographic transition or are already entering its fourth stage (Fig. 57).
The birth rate in countries of this type usually ranges from 8 to 15%o, while the average for the 27 countries of the European Union is 10%o. This figure is considered extremely low. In order for you to understand this better, I will add that with such a birth rate, the level of fertility (fertility) of women is only 1.1-1.8 statistical children per reproductive period, and this by no means ensures an expanded reproduction of the population.
In the first lecture on topic 5, we already talked about the factors that affect fertility. And in this case, demographic factors should be mentioned first of all. Demographic factors should be mentioned first of all. These include a decrease in the proportion of young ages - a phenomenon that has been called aging from below, as well as an increase in the proportion of older (no longer "reproducing") ages, or aging from above. However, many socio-economic, psychological, medico-social, moral factors must also be added to the demographic ones, which have found expression in such a negative phenomenon as a family crisis, expressed in having few children, postponing the birth of the first child to a later date, the fragility of marriage itself, an increase in the number illegitimate children.
Back in the early 60s. 20th century the number of divorces for every 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe was in the range from 100 to 200, but by the beginning of the XXI century. it rose to 200-300. And the proportion of illegitimate children during the same time increased by 5-10 times. For example, in the UK and France, the proportion of such children exceeds 30%, in Denmark - 40%, and in Sweden, Norway and Iceland - even 50%!
In the post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS countries, in addition to all the above factors, there was added, as we have already noted, the deep socio-economic crisis of the 1990s, associated with the difficulties of the transition from the former command-planning to market economy. It is no coincidence that the demographic situation in the transition period turned out to be the most difficult in these countries.
The mortality rate in the countries of the first type of reproduction is approximately in the same range - from 8 to 18%o, and for the EU countries it averages 10%o. This indicator must be recognized as quite high, since there are over a hundred countries in the world where it is lower. Of course, this situation is also explained by demographic features - an increase in average life expectancy, the aging of the population, and a violation of its sexual structure. But one cannot ignore such reasons as occupational morbidity, industrial injuries, the impact of alcoholism, drug addiction, the spread of AIDS, as well as the consequences of natural and man-made disasters.
For example, about 250 thousand people die on the world's roads every year, including 35 thousand in Russia. This means that over the past ten years alone, 350 thousand Russians have died on the roads of our country, which can be compared with the population of quite big city. And these are mostly men of working age. It should also be taken into account that for one dead there are 8-10 wounded, who received various kinds of injuries and injuries, and became disabled.
In passing, it should be noted that the infant mortality rate (children under 1 year old) in most countries of the first type of reproduction looks completely different. It is the lowest in the world at 5-10%o, reflecting the high level of both general well-being and health care.
Let us now turn to the final indicator of natural population growth. In Figure 57, the upper limit for this type of reproduction is taken as 10%o, which, of course, should be considered somewhat conditional, indicative. However, it turns out that within its limits there are sufficiently large differences between the countries of the first type, allowing them to be divided into at least three subgroups.
The first subgroup includes countries where a relatively favorable demographic situation is still preserved and at least positive indicators of fertility and natural increase, i.e., expanded reproduction of the population, are provided. As an example of this kind, we can cite the United States, where the "formula" of reproduction in 2005 looked like this: 14.1%o - 8.3%o = 5.8%o. The same subgroup should include Ireland, Iceland, Norway, the Netherlands, France, Greece, the Republic of Korea, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, where the natural increase is in the range from 2 to 7%o. This means that the population in this subgroup of countries is growing by 0.2-0.7% per year. At this rate of annual growth, it would take them between 100 and 350 years to double the number of inhabitants.
Further, we note another very important circumstance: over the past decade, this subgroup of countries of the first type has already included some developing states that, with the gradual attenuation of the population explosion, have entered from the second to the third stage of the demographic transition. Judging by Figure 57, these countries include: in foreign Asia - China, Thailand, Sri Lanka, in Latin America- Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Cuba.
It is legitimate to include in the second subgroup those economically developed countries where natural population growth no longer ensures expanded reproduction of the population, but only barely exceeds zero (Great Britain, Belgium, Spain, Finland, Portugal, Poland, Japan) or even is “at zero” ( Sweden). There are from 1.3 to 1.7 statistical children per woman in these countries, while for simple reproduction this figure should be at least 2.15.
Finally, the third subgroup includes countries with negative natural population growth. In most of them, there are only 1.1-1.2 births per woman. Interestingly, this subgroup includes only European countries, and if in 1990 there were only 3 of them, then in 2000 there were 15, and in 2005 the same number remained, although with some change in their composition (Table 20) .
Table 20
European countries with negative natural population growth, 2005

the age of marriage was raised, and there were campaigns of voluntary and then forced sterilization of men. As a result, birth rates and natural increase have declined markedly. But on the whole, the effectiveness of the population policy in India turned out to be noticeably less than in China. For example, less than half of married couples use contraceptives here. Such a lag in India is primarily due to socio-economic reasons - the poverty of a significant part of its population, low literacy, etc.
Demographic policy measures have also proved to be quite effective in Latin America, where 70% of all families now use contraceptives. In Africa, Egypt and Tunisia were the first to pursue a demographic policy, followed by Morocco, Ghana, and Kenya. But in general, on this continent, only 25% of women control their reproductive function, and in such least developed countries as Burundi, Chad, Mauritania, DR Congo, CAR, Benin, Eritrea - only 1-4%.
As a result, we can conclude that in the world of developing countries there are now two large regions where population policy is either not carried out at all or is in its infancy. Firstly, these are the Muslim countries of Southwest Asia, where any kind of family planning is perceived as an unacceptable interference in the existing household and family life. Secondly, these are the countries of Africa south of the Sahara. It is not surprising that the highest birth rates and natural increase are characteristic of the countries of these two regions. Apparently, they will serve as the main distribution area of ​​the second type of population reproduction for a long time to come.
test questions name character traits the first type of population reproduction. Describe geographical features the first type of population reproduction and the grouping of countries within it. Name the characteristic features of the second type of population reproduction. Describe the geographical features of the second type of population reproduction and the grouping of countries within it. Tell us about the tasks, measures and results of the demographic policy pursued in the countries of the first and second types of population reproduction.

Reproduction of the population is a constant renewal of the size and structure of the population in the process of changing generations of people, through births and deaths.

The set of parameters that determine this process is called the mode of population reproduction.

In an extremely generalized form, the above set of parameters includes the size and structure of the population as a characteristic of its state, as well as births and deaths as events that determine their (numbers and structure) changes over time. In other words, the parameters that determine the reproduction of the population are the birth rate and death rate, presented in the form of their meters.

In terms of its content, the population reproduction regime is determined by the socio-economic conditions of its life, the social structure, and the peculiarities of the demographic development of individual regions. Due to the uneven economic and social development not only of individual countries, but also of their regions, there are significant differences in the formation of types of reproduction not only between countries, but also within them.

For example, in the USSR there were three types of population reproduction. The first was characterized by a low mortality of the population, a deliberately limited birth rate, an orientation towards a small family, and a high intensity of migration processes. This type of reproduction, with a completed transition to a one-child family as a modal one, was typical for 79.7% of the total population of the country, in particular for the RSFSR, the Ukrainian SSR, the Byelorussian SSR, the Georgian SSR and the Baltic republics.

The second type was distinguished by a low mortality rate, a high consciously unlimited birth rate, traditions of having many children, and low intensity of migration processes from the village to the city and beyond the borders of the republic. This type of reproduction covered the population of the republics of Central Asia.

The third type of reproduction was transitional and inherent in the population of Moldova, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and covered approximately 10.6% of the country's population. Reproduction was characterized by low mortality, combined with rapid, but not the same in the Union republics, the rate of decline in the birth rate, and the increasing migration mobility of the population. Another feature is the transition from large families to medium-sized and one-child families.

After the separation of the Russian Federation into an independent state, the development and deepening of the first type of reproduction continued in it. Over the past decade, it has been accompanied by:

§ the continuing decline in the birth rate, the final transition to a one-child family;

§ an increase in the mortality of the population, and above all, in working age;

§ reduction in the average life expectancy of the population at birth;

§ an almost universal natural decline in the population that began in 1991, an increase in this phenomenon by the middle of the period;

§ the growth of external migration - the exchange of population with the countries of the far, and especially the near abroad, the CIS and the Baltic countries;

§ increased internal migration in all directions;

§ the formation of narrowed reproduction of the population in some regions, simple - in other regions, in rare cases - expanded reproduction.

Narrowed reproduction means that the living population does not reproduce a replacement for itself, the absolute number of outgoing generations exceeds the number of new generations. Such a population is threatened with depopulation, its age structure has a regressive type. At simple reproduction the outgoing generations and those entering into life are equal in their absolute numbers. In such a population, a permanent sex and age structure (stationary type) is formed. The total population is not increasing; under certain unfavorable conditions, there is a high probability of a transition to narrowed reproduction and a regressive age structure.

Expanded reproduction is characterized by an increase in each new generation entering into life compared to the number of outgoing generations. A progressive type of sex and age structure of the population is formed, its absolute number is growing.

Constricted, simple and extended reproduction can be viewed from the standpoint of:

1) what kind of change did the outgoing cohort of men and women of a certain year of birth leave behind for the entire fertile (fertile for women) period of their lives (change of generations by cohorts); what kind of succession each outgoing group of contemporaries left behind at the critical moment of the population census taking into account the level of mortality of generations entering into life.

Usually, the reproduction of the population is considered not as a whole, but in relation to any one sex, most often female. A "same-sex" consideration of population reproduction is possible, since there is practically no exchange between the sexes at any statistically significant level, and the secondary sex ratio can be considered constant. The choice of the female population, in general, is arbitrary, but the motives for such a choice are quite understandable. First, the reproductive period in women is shorter than in men. Secondly, (and this is perhaps the main thing) the main parameters of female reproduction (the number of children born to a woman, her age at birth, etc.) are much more accessible than similar characteristics for men, especially with regard to out-of-wedlock births. . Cases of analysis, so to speak, of "male fertility", due to the lack of the necessary statistical base, are extremely rare. One of the successful exceptions is the book by V.N. Arkhangelsky "Reproduction of the population of Russia", which provides data on the total fertility rate of men and the average age of the father at the birth of a child.

The role of age as a universal independent variable in demographic analysis and its constant change (every person inevitably either dies or gets older, i.e., more strictly speaking, moves to another age group) determine that much attention is paid to age in the analysis of population reproduction , the study of this process in the context of age groups.

It follows from the definition of population reproduction that, speaking of it, we tacitly mean that its indicators do not refer to a year or some other period of time, but to a real or hypothetical cohort (generation), i.e. are, in fact, not periodic, but cohort.

However, some periodic indicators can be used as simple and approximate measures of reproduction.

Among them is the coefficient of natural increase, i.e. the difference between the total birth and death rates. Another such measure is the vitality index proposed by the American biologist and demographer R. Pearl. The vitality index is equal to the ratio of the annual number of births (or total fertility rate) to the annual number of deaths (or total mortality rate). Both of these indicators indicate the extent to which the population changes (increases or decreases) under the influence of actual birth and death rates. However, both the coefficient of natural increase and the vitality index, as well as its components (fertility and mortality), strongly depend on the age structure, fluctuations of which can distort data on population dynamics. Therefore, all these measures are inadequate for determining long-term trends in population reproduction. That is why, in particular, it is necessary to use population reproduction indicators based on the cohort approach and independent of the age structure.

If certain sex- and age-differentiated birth and death rates are given, as well as a secondary sex ratio, which is a universal biological constant and equals approximately 105-106 live births of boys per 100 live births of girls, then this completely determines the reproduction of the population and its age and sex structure. The totality of precisely these parameters is what is meant when speaking about the mode of population reproduction in the usual sense of the word.

Since the reproduction of the female population is usually studied, the whole question comes down to considering the age-specific mortality of women and the frequency of the birth of girls in women of different ages.

Mortality, as a rule, is measured using the function of survival to the age of x years, i.e. using the function. In practice, they use the values ​​of the numbers of those living to the age of x years from the complete tables of mortality of the female population. The generalizing characteristic of female mortality, as you remember, is the average life expectancy of a newborn, i.e.