How many of us will there be? Research work "demographic portrait of school students" Demographic portrait of the planet by the end of the 21st century.

In almost every publication on the subject of overpopulation, "population explosion" and population policy, you can read that the population is starting to stabilize, so that overpopulation is no longer a problem. Imagine that we are sitting in a train that has to cross a deep gorge on a bridge, and now the bridge begins to collapse as soon as we approach it. It crackles at first, but the sound doesn't really bother those on the train. Then, when the collapse begins, nothing can be done. Let's see if demographic optimism is justified and how the population will develop in the 21st century.
All demographers for the near future predict population growth, albeit slowing down. In addition, significant inertia will increase the population after reaching the "optimum" birth rate. It is also a mistake that the trend of population fluctuations can never be reduced to stability. The population is always either growing or shrinking - this can be observed in the natural populations of various animals. Most likely, in the future we would expect a fall - with continuing trends. The forecasting error in this case is not that demographers do not take into account something, the extrapolation method itself fails. So, the same Arab-Ogly talks about the population of the USSR in 2000. But 10 years later, ten years from the moment the forecast was announced, the state of the USSR disappeared from the maps. On the scale of planetary demographic forecasts, this is a trifle, but a similar situation may develop with the world as a whole, the forecasts will turn out to be too biased. The planet will not sustain ten billion people even for a hundred years. And there is no mysticism here, I do not revive the planet - the ecological balance will simply be disturbed, the ecological catastrophe will enter its final phase. In the worst case, all life on earth may disappear (as a result of the thinning of the ozone layer and increased cosmic radiation, for example).
Overpopulation is not waiting for us in the future, it has already arrived. Tropical rainforests are almost cut down, rivers and in many ways the seas are poisoned. Reversible or not the process of destruction now - no one knows. We don't have a hundred years. Yes, and what awaits us for a hundred years is not a reduction in the population, but a stabilization of growth. We should not forget about the constant reduction of the fund of arable and fertile lands in general. After the erosion process, empty land remains, on which even weeds do not grow. The "growth limit" has already been reached several decades ago. We've crossed the line. And now, instead of focusing on a rapid reduction in the number (one child per family), they encourage large families in developed countries, including in Russia. The only chance to save nature is to reduce the population by at least three times in a hundred years, plus global deindustrialization. But no one will do this, and therefore - a catastrophe is inevitable. In addition to the overall growth, the population density in the city will increase, and urbanization will generally increase. Consumption per capita will increase, the amount of waste will increase. The increase in land pressure will outstrip the decline in population. Humanity has no time to think, but it is not going to think. The demographic picture in connection with other factors makes it possible to confidently predict resource depletion and environmental catastrophe by the end of the 21st century, and possibly earlier.

Lesson summary on the topic:"Demographic portrait of the Earth of the 21st century"

Main didactic goal:

Generalize and systematize the knowledge of the basic concepts and processes that characterize the population of the world.

Lesson Objectives:

1. To consolidate knowledge about the dynamics of the population, the features of location, the level of urbanization, the directions of the main migration flows.

2. To promote the development of skills to apply the main demographic indicators to characterize the population of the Earth as a whole, individual regions and countries; analyze tables, diagrams.

3. Create conditions for the development of the ability to use scientific knowledge to make an informed decision; manifestations of humane relations in the group.

Lesson type: generalization and systematization of knowledge

Method: partial search

Form of organization:work in small groups

Equipment:

1. political map peace

2. Statistical reference books and materials

3. Atlases

4. Handout

During the classes

Organizational moment.

Goal setting and motivation.

Today we have to find out what will be the population of the Earth in the near foreseeable future. In connection with these - try to formulate the objectives of this lesson.

3. Consolidation and systematization of knowledge.

Let's start with the basic concepts of the topic. We offer you a small written questionnaire. Complete the tasks - envelope number 1 and hand it over to the experts for verification.

Orally state the following terms:

natural growth

"population explosion"

depopulation

migration - demographic policy

3) And now we have to find out: Does overpopulation threaten the planet?

To do this, read the tasks of the instructive card No. 1 - envelope No. 2

Guidance Card No. 1
Using the data of statistical reference books, determine the number

Each group gets its own region: Europe, Asia, North America, Africa, South America, Australia and Oceania.

Compare these data and determine: Which region will lead in terms of population?

What will be the smallest?

Explain this data. These data reflect the picture demographic situation in the regions as a whole. And what will it look like for individual countries? Complete the tasks of the instructive card No. 2-envelope No. 3.

Instructional map number 2Using the data of statistical reference books, determine the number

population in 2025. Enter them in the table.

Each group has its own country: Indonesia, China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, USA.

Compare these data and explain them. Answer the questions: What type of reproduction

specific to this country? What are its main characteristics?

It is clear that with an increase in the population, the load per unit area increases. To determine how much it will change, complete the task of instructional card No. 3 - envelope No. 4.

Instructional map number 3Determine the average population density of the world. Determine the population density in your area in 2025. Answer the question: How can the load (horizontal) per unit area be reduced? What process will it involve?

Let's repeat the concepts: -urbanization

agglomeration

megalopolis

Guidance Card No. 4

Calculate how the size of the largest urban agglomerations will change

your country. What about those who stay in the village? Apparently, it is necessary to expand the area of ​​development. How much? Based on the data on the average density of your country, calculate by how much it should increase the area of ​​developed land? Where can we get these lands, if we are already talking about the fact that everything that could be mastered has already been mastered?

Homework: Suggest your own solutions to this problem, based on the characteristics of your region. Your task is to resettle, feed and provide jobs for the population of your region. Designs can be the most fantastic.

But back to our original question: Is the planet in danger of overpopulation? How will you answer it, having obtained the facts?

Summarizing.

It may very well be that at the very moment when you begin to read this essay, a very significant event will occur on Earth: the six billionth inhabitant will be born (if not already born). According to the calculations of demographers, it is in 1999 that the population of the Earth should pass through a round and very solid figure: 6,000,000,000. Is it a lot or a little?

Two and a half hectares

Six billion of anything is very hard to imagine. But even without much imagination, one can understand that the number of people on the planet is simply colossal. If the live weight is about 300 million tons. And if you take and divide the area of ​​\u200b\u200bthe earth's land by the population of the planet, then for each person there will be only two and a half hectares of territory - any territory, including mountains, glaciers, deserts, swamps and other inconveniences. M-yes, sparsely, Some more time will pass and there will be nowhere to turn at all. Can this happen? Is it realistic to calculate how many of us there will be after "some time" - for example, in the 21st century? And how many generally SHOULD be on planet Earth?

Before trying to answer these difficult questions, let's figure out how many of us have been so far.

According to some estimates, 100 billion people have managed to live on Earth in the entire history of civilization. Purely chronologically, the situation was as follows. In the thousandth year BC, the number of intelligent inhabitants of the planet Earth was about 100 million people (this is the population of present-day Nigeria). By the beginning of the era, the planet's population had doubled (now about the same number of people live in Indonesia alone), but, of course, they did not rest on their laurels and moved further into the future at the same unhurried speed - a little more than ten people per hour. During the first millennium of the new era, the increase was again one hundred million. In the second millennium, the pace gradually accelerates. By the middle of the 17th century, 500 million people had already accumulated on Earth (this is about half of present-day India), and around 1804, earthlings “printed out” their first billion. Note: civilization has been moving towards this figure for many millennia. You can’t say about the further process: “I was going.” In the 20th century, the history of population took off at a gallop. 1927 - the second billion. 1960 is the third. In just 14 years, there are already four billion people on Earth. 13 years later - in 1987 - five billion. And in another 12 years - this is our time, the year 1999 - welcome to the planet, the six billionth inhabitant!

Did you pay attention? Not only has the world's population doubled in less than forty years, but the period of growth of each new billion is reduced: each time it decreases by a year. Will it really continue like this: the seventh billion - in 11 years, the eighth - in 10 ... Remaining within the framework of this linear logic, it is easy to calculate that, starting from 2064, humanity, having become sixteen billion, will add a billion a year, and then more. Horror!

I just want to reassure readers. Nothing of the kind is likely to happen. Population dynamics is not an easy thing, it is subject to very complex mathematics (and, of course, not only mathematics), and it cannot be approached with a linear measure.

Phantom of catastrophe

In past centuries, demographic problems did not enjoy special attention scientists and the general public. The very word "demography" was introduced into circulation by the Frenchman Achille Guillard only in 1855.

And yet, let's give the people of the past justice: they have been engaged in "practical demography" since ancient times. Population censuses were carried out in ancient Babylon - the corresponding clay tablets have been preserved in this regard. And in ancient Rome, "sensuses" - this is how statistical records in general and population censuses in particular were called in Latin - were an indispensable part of state office work. After all, you need to know how much where a person lives and what taxes to collect from them. History has preserved many Roman records - with such records, for example: Helvetiorum censu habito, repertus est numerus milium CX, which means "the number of Helvetians, according to the census, turned out to be 110 thousand."

In modern times, the first census took place in the colony of New France (Quebec) in 1665. The United States conducted its first census in 1790. Thirty years later, the time has come for censuses in Italy, Spain, England, Ireland, Austria, and France. In 1851, a census was held in China, and ten years later - in Russia. Speaking of demography, especially in the Year of the Sixth Billion, one cannot but recall the pioneer of this field of science, the English economist and priest Thomas Robert Malthus. Just as the world's population was approaching its first billion—namely, in 1798—the thirty-two-year-old scientist anonymously published his famous Essay on the Law of Population, in which he made the following statement:
“The population, if not controlled, increases exponentially. Means of subsistence increase only in an arithmetic progression. Even a superficial acquaintance with numbers will show that the first sequence is incommensurable with the second.

Malthus's theory gained considerable popularity. For the past two centuries, it has caused serious controversy. For many decades, Soviet propaganda branded this theory as an "anti-scientific system of views on population", and Malthus himself was called nothing more than a "reactionary economist".

Meanwhile, to understand the fears of Malthus purely humanly is very simple. He was troubled by the following speculative conclusion: the population of the world is growing faster than it produces the means of subsistence. Another thing is that two centuries ago (yes, even now) practice did not really confirm this idea, and Malthus's reasoning was more of a theoretical nature.

According to the logic of the British scientist, the population of England was to double every 25 years, and by 1950 this country should have had 704 million inhabitants, while its territory can only feed 77 million. Therefore, it is necessary to take some decisive measures to contain the population, to "control" population growth. However, history has shown that not everything is so simple with the notorious arithmetic and geometric progressions. By 1950, the population of the United Kingdom had just reached 50 million people. And in our time, the population of Great Britain - less than 59 million - quite allows this country to feed itself.

But as for the future ... What if Malthus is right - in the long run? Suddenly, these progressions really become “incommensurable” (No matter how much the Marxists vilify the “reactionary economist”, but, by the way, Friedrich Engels, almost a century after the appearance of Malthus’s work, also paid tribute to the problem of the demographic crisis. In 1881 he remarked: “The abstract possibility of such the numerical growth of mankind, which will make it necessary to put a limit to this growth, of course, exists.")

Let's remember the expression "growth limit" and fast forward to the 60s of our century - in order to understand the current situation, it is very important to understand the demographic mood of that time. It was in the 1960s that people with particular acuteness noticed the danger of overpopulation and, as it were, re-read Malthus. The fact is that humanity has thrown out the focus. Neither on the eve of the Second World War, nor even more so in the first decade after it, there were particularly terrible demographic forecasts. On the contrary, in most developed countries it was believed that the rate of population growth was declining.

And suddenly it was perceived precisely as “suddenly” - a sharp jump: even “yesterday” (in 1930) two billion people lived on the planet, and “today” (in 1960) - after the Great Depression, a terrible world war and a whole a series of local wars - a billion more. The term "population explosion" has become one of the most popular.

Of course, there were explanations: the birth rate was growing steadily on the planet (especially rapidly in developing countries), the progress of medicine and health care led to a reduction in infant mortality and an increase in life expectancy, many deadly diseases receded before antibiotics. However, the explanations - for all their optimistic coloring - were not very reassuring. The logic was simple: if high rates population growth will continue, neither medicine nor healthcare will save - humanity will double several times more, deplete Natural resources, will finally pollute the environment with its waste, and - to Malthus, of course, a big hello - a catastrophe will break out.

“Move over! Move over!"

Perhaps the first work in science fiction on the topic of the demographic crisis was Kurt Vonnegut's "black" comedy "The Big Journey Up and Beyond", released in 1954. There, indeed, it was about the overpopulation of the planet, only the reason for it was not the unbridled growth in the number of people, but the revolutionary successes in the field of biology, which led to a sharp increase in life expectancy.

In 1966, Harry Harrison's famous demographic thriller Move Over! Move over!", depicting the eerie future of overcrowded New York at the end of the century. It is curious that the author was almost not mistaken in the quantitative forecast: there are now, if not seven, as Harrison assumed, but still six billion; however, something is not visible that America absorbs one hundred percent of the planet's resources, which, due to the rapid growth of the population, the science fiction writer feared. And the terrible overcrowding of large cities is somehow not very felt.

In 1968, among many others, another novel on the theme of the demographic crisis was published, which quickly became a classic of the genre, Standing on Zanzibar by John Brunner. It described a more distant future - 2020, by which time there were so many people on the planet (just a nightmare - almost nine billion people!), That if everyone was given two square feet of land, then all of humanity would fill the island of Zanzibar upright. The image is bright, but if you think about it, it doesn't say anything special. Let's take our time and the current population of mankind and allocate to everyone living on Earth about the same amount as Branner allotted (well, a little less - a square with a side of forty centimeters, it is quite convenient to stand), - then the entire population of the world will "calmly" be located on the territory of Moscow. Get "Standing in Moscow." So what? Muscovites, however, it is a pity ...

In our, domestic science fiction of that time, there were practically no works about the “overproduction of the population” threatening the world. Soviet ideological thought decided that the threat of overpopulation is an invention of bourgeois futurology, no demographic cataclysms are foreseen in the future (and if it is foreseen, then not here) and in general all global problems will be solved through the triumph of socialism and the subsequent transition to communism, under which " all sources of social wealth will flow in full flow ”and finally harmonious interaction between man and nature will be ensured. Even in the works of the Strugatsky brothers, in my opinion, the best of Russian science fiction writers, there is not a trace of overpopulation. In the story “The Interns”, which takes place around the end of the 21st century, it is simply and clearly stated: there are four billion people on Earth, half are people of the communist tomorrow, half are the Western world. The story was published in 1962. The world will cross the four billion milestone in just 12 years...

But let's leave fantasy and return to real world. By the end of the turbulent decade of the 1960s, scientists' concern about the future of the planet - primarily demographic - reached a high pitch, which is clearly seen in the example of the Club of Rome. This international public organization, established in 1968, aimed at conducting large-scale socio-economic research and mobilizing the efforts of mankind to solve global problems. Followed by reports of scientists different countries Club of Rome, the first of which are "Limits to Growth" (1972), written by a group of American scientists led by D. Meadows, "Humanity at the Crossroads" by M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel (1974), "Revision of the International Order" by J. Tinbergen ( 1976), - made a lot of noise, outlining a very gloomy prospects further development of civilization and put forward rather tough recommendations to curb growth. What is at least the epigraph to one of the chapters of the report "Humanity at a Crossroads": "The world is sick with cancer, and this cancer is a person."

The authors of the reports proposed to solve demographic problem in a distinctly Malthusian way, by controlling population growth. However, if industrial production continues to grow unchecked, then tight birth control will still not eliminate the crisis, since there is no escape from the threat of depletion of non-renewable resources and pollution environment. Where is the exit? Perhaps a global catastrophe is inevitable and nothing can be done? The D. Meadows group believed that the catastrophe could still be prevented, but for this it was necessary to radically change modern tendencies development of mankind: to move from the unbridled growth of population and capital to "zero growth" and achieve "global equilibrium" - a state of civilization when "the main material needs every person living on earth will be satisfied and everyone will receive equal opportunities to realize their individual human potential.

Of course, the theory of "zero growth" was immediately picked up by science fiction writers, it is found in many works to this day, however, in fact, this idea did not last so long. Already Jan Tinbergen, the author of the third report to the Club of Rome, came to the conclusion that humanity will successfully cope with the troubles that threaten it, by no means resorting to such last resort, as inhibition and, moreover, growth stop.

In the 70s, the horror pictures that await humanity were innumerable. The population explosion continued, the world's population grew frighteningly fast, and this alone, it seemed to many, was depriving the people of the planet of any hope for a normal future. We can recall the works of the West German futurist G. Schneider, who talked a lot about the explosive situation in international relations, generated demographic revolution. Two hundred thousand people added to the world every day, he wrote, is the population of an entire city. Every week a new city appears on earth the size of Munich, Warsaw or Kiev, every month a country like Denmark, Ecuador or Guatemala, every three years a country like the USA or the USSR, every five years another South America , Western Europe or Africa.

It was in the 70s that the expression "golden billion" flashed on the pages of various publications. As many ecologists believed then, the planet Earth can support about a billion intelligent beings, but if there are more earthlings, this is a direct path to resource depletion, irreversible changes in the environment and, thus, to disaster. Well, okay, "golden billion", let's say. But even then, four times as many people lived on Earth. What to do with three billion “non-golden” intelligent inhabitants who suddenly became superfluous? And who will decide - these are “golden” (at ease, you can smoke), but these are superfluous (str-r-swarm! to the exit with things)? ..

Not a disaster, but a transition

It's time to finally acquaint readers with the concept of "demographic transition". This concept reflects the long-noted fact that at a certain stage in the development of a country, a region or the whole of humanity as a whole, there is a sharp increase in the population growth rate, then the rate drops just as sharply, and the population reaches a stabilized regime. The most important thing here is to determine the beginning and extent of a “certain stage”, to realize the quantitative parameters of stabilization and, if possible, to express all this with a consistent mathematical model.

According to the American scholar Stephen Gillett, the demographic transition began in the 18th century, and it took place first in France, then spread throughout Europe, and in our century it swept the whole world. At the same time, the number of people on Earth does not depend much on political will or economic circumstances - it is subject to natural regulators. Culture and technology also act as regulators, moreover, the demographic transition itself motivates people to create new economic and social structures requiring birth control.

Great Britain provides a classic example of a demographic transition. During the 18th century, the population of this country doubled, by the middle of the 19th century it doubled again, and then the growth rate began to subside. In 1900 there were about 40 million people living in the United Kingdom; in the first half of the century, only ten million were added, and in the second, even less than ten million. According to modern forecasts, by the middle of the 21st century, the number of inhabitants of Great Britain will not only not increase, but even decrease somewhat, so it can be argued that the demographic curve here has become a horizontal straight line, the population has stabilized and will stay at the level of 56 - 58 million people for a long time.

It is not so easy to move from understanding the features of the demographic transition in individual countries to global characteristics: there are too many factors to take into account, and a non-trivial mathematical model is required. Such a model was built by our famous scientist Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa - readers know him well from the TV show "Obvious - Incredible". The theory of population growth of the Earth by S.P. Kapitsa was published last year and immediately became a notable event in demographic science - it really explains what happened to the world population in the past, provides a clear analysis of current trends and allows you to confidently predict demographic dynamics for a long time.

Here is what S. P. Kapitsa himself writes:
“The duration of the transition is only ... 84 years, but during this time, which is 1/50,000 of the entire history of mankind, there will be a fundamental change in the nature of its development. Despite the brevity of the transition, this time will outlive 1/10 of all people who have ever lived.

The conclusion about the stabilization of the world's population after the demographic transition is significant... The limit of population growth should be sought not in the global lack of resources, but in the systemic patterns of human development. The conclusion to which the model leads is the general independence of global growth from external conditions, a conclusion that is in every contradiction with conventional wisdom. Moreover, until now and, apparently, in the foreseeable future, such resources will be available and will allow humanity to go through a demographic transition in which the population will increase by only 2.5 times. This conclusion can be formulated as the principle of the demographic imperative, as a consequence of the immanence of the systemic growth of mankind.

We can say that in some sense we were lucky. It has fallen to modern humans to live in the midst of a short and very vigorous demographic transition for all of humanity. Apparently, the most acute phase is already behind us, and ahead of us lies a steady decline in the growth rate of mankind, and in a few decades, by the middle of the 21st century, the population of the Earth will stabilize at a level of approximately 10, maximum 12 billion people. (This is exactly the same as demographic forecast United Nations Population Division, according to which by 2050 there will be from 7.3 to 10.7 billion people on the planet.)

The conclusions of the theory are confirmed by the practice of the last decade. The passions around the "imminent" demographic catastrophe have subsided. Population statistics look quite encouraging. The growth rate of the world's population, which in the 60s and early 70s was kept at the level of two percent per year (mainly due to developing countries, where it reached even 3.5 percent), fell to 1.7 percent at the beginning of the decade , and in 1995-2000 it was one percent and a third. We are moving into the future at a rate of 9,000 people per hour, and this rate is declining.

"Old" new world

As we already know, there are objective natural causes leading to the stabilization of the global population, however, humanity itself has made considerable efforts, especially in Asian countries. (Not in vain, not in vain, the authors of the reports to the Club of Rome frightened the world with terrible pictures of overpopulation!) Back in 1948, Japan, without waiting for the theories of the demographic transition, announced a birth control program. However, the overall slowdown in growth in Asia is largely due to the tight demographic policy of China, the world's most populous country. Since the slogan “one child per family” was put forward and adopted as a guideline in China, the growth rate has fallen to 1.4 percent, and there is reason to believe that it will soon fall to zero. In India, the second largest country in the world, progress has not been as noticeable. The population there continues to grow quite rapidly. According to modern forecasts, by the middle of the next century, India will overtake China by about 50 million people and become the world leader in terms of population. In total, more than three billion people will live in India and China (a third of the world's population!).

Generally speaking, the large-scale demographic future of the planet is seen quite clearly from ours today. This is a moderate prognosis. Fifty years from now, the population of Asia will be over five billion, Africa will more than double to nearly two billion. The population of the Americas will greatly exceed one billion. But old Europe will add quite a bit in numbers: a little more than 600 million people will live in it.

56 countries will experience negative growth (that is, the death rate will exceed the birth rate) - that's all European countries, China and Japan. From a demographic point of view, there is nothing unusual here - we can assume that the demographic transition in such countries has ended and they have moved into a stable state. However, Russia stands apart here. Sadly, but last years our death rate incredibly exceeds the birth rate: for every thousand inhabitants, 9 people are born, and 16 die. A minus 0.7 percent increase per year is not stability at all, but a demographic catastrophe in a single country. If the trend continues, then by 2050 Russia - in terms of population - will move from seventh to fourteenth place in the world (leaving Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, the Philippines and Vietnam ahead): 120 million people will live in it.

It is safe to say that in the 21st century, the majority of the world's population will live in cities: the process of urbanization began a long time ago, and there is no reason to believe that it will end soon. Already now, at the end of the century, almost half of the world's population lives in cities, that is, a little less than three billion people (!), although half a century ago, the share of urban residents was not even a third.

Of course, many factors will influence the growth of the population and its distribution on the planet, and not everything can be guessed or correctly estimated in advance. Take the climatic conditions. It is possible that as a result of global warming, the level of the world's oceans will begin to rise at least a little, but. But almost two-thirds of the world's population lives on the coasts - well, if not quite near the sea-ocean, then at least within the 60-kilometer coastal strip. Moreover, huge numbers of people in Asia and Africa live in lowlands and river deltas. If the ocean begins to advance, this will lead to mass migrations, which will affect the demographic situation in the most unpredictable way. Already in our time, migration due to wars, adverse economic conditions, natural disasters have led to the fact that 125 million people (more than two percent of the world's population) have been forced to leave their countries and settle far from home. These are data from 1994 - most likely very incomplete ...

Another important process that is already underway and will become a major factor in the lives of people in the next century is the aging of the world, that is, the increase in the proportion of older people in the total population: a direct result of medical advances. There are currently approximately 66 million people over the age of eighty (less than 1 percent) living on the planet. Fifty years from now, their number will increase by six times and, approaching 400 million, will be at least four percent. The number of "oldest" - that is, those who are over a hundred - will increase even 16 times and amount to 2.2 million.

The world is still very young - in the age sense. Now the number of children on the planet (30 percent) is three times the number of older people (10 percent). Another fifty years will pass, and the situation - at least in developed countries - will be reversed: there will be twice as many old people as children. The "oldest" country will be Spain, and the "youngest" continent will still be Africa.

We must think that the concept of the term of human life will change quite a lot. The average life expectancy will approach 90 years, and the maximum, quite possibly, will be 130 years.

Well, OK. Demographic transition, urbanization, aging of the world... But what about the "golden billion"? There are six times more of us now than we are supposed to be, and in half a century it will be ten times more. The fact that there is enough space for everyone is understandable. But is there enough food? How many people can feed the Earth?

There are a variety of answers to this question. Let's start with the fact that the "golden billion" is still an ominous propaganda trick, nothing more. In addition to the "progressions" of Thomas Malthus, there is such a thing as scientific and technological progress, and this includes the achievements of genetics and biotechnology, and the prevention of plant and animal diseases, and the successes of agriculture (remember, for example, the "Green Revolution"), and the fact that humanity is increasingly accepting the rules of environmental behavior. It may not be very widely known, but over the past 25 to 30 years, global food production growth has outpaced population growth by about 16 percent. It is another matter that far from everyone gets the food produced in increasing quantities: at least a quarter of earthlings live from hand to mouth, and of them almost half experience chronic hunger, from which millions of people die every year - but this sad problem, strictly speaking, has nothing to do with demography.

It has long been clear to serious scientists that the Earth will feed 6, 8, and 12 billion people. According to Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa, "with reasonable assumptions, the Earth can support up to 15-25 billion people for a long time."

Now there is every reason to believe that when the demographic transition is completed for all of humanity, the world population will stabilize at a level that is obviously below the critical one, no matter how this “criticality” is defined. So if we use the epithet "golden", then we should talk about the "golden ten" of billions that will live on the planet in the 21st century and in subsequent centuries. (Note that the UN Population Division's "average" projection for 2150 is 10.8 billion.)

Did you look at your watch when you started this essay? How long did it take you to read? Twenty minutes, thirty at most? During this time, four and a half thousand people have been added to the planet Earth - a whole village. Let's say to them: "You are welcome! Make yourself comfortable. Enough space for everyone."

INFORMATION AND BIBLIOGRAPHIC DEPARTMENT

Sector of scientific information on culture, art, education, philology

Demographic portrait

Russia XXI century

Reference-biblio-webliographic materials

© GBUK "Samara Regional Universal Scientific Library"

From the compiler

The demographic problem in modern Russia is one of the most acute problems. The prospects for modernization and the competitiveness of the economy, social development, and the geopolitical stability of the state depend on its solution. Today's Russia needs to improve the demographic situation, to create conditions for the stabilization and growth of its population. Knowledge and deep analysis of demographic processes will contribute to the implementation of targeted state policy. At the beginning of the XXI century. a number of important guiding documents have already been adopted: in 2001 - "The Concept of Demographic Development Russian Federation for the period up to 2015”, which stated the problematic demographic situation in Russia and formulated the goals and objectives of the demographic policy; in 2007 - "The concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" (the text is given in the Appendix).

This demographically oriented publication has been prepared in the format of reference and bibliographic materials with the aim of acquainting a wide circle of readers and Internet users interested in the state and prospects of Russia's demographic development in the 21st century with some of the main demographic characteristics of the population - the total number, the number of sex and age groups, migration processes, etc. The manual is of particular interest to management personnel, researchers, teachers, students. The materials of the publication can be used by librarians in educational activities.

The analytical part of the manual presents population statistics and an overview of the main trends and problems of the demographic development of Russia and the Samara region. To fill this part, state statistics materials, publications and reports of Russian demographers and experts were used.

The bibliographic part contains information about books published in 2000–2011 from the fund of the Samara Regional Universal Scientific Library (SOUNB), a list of recommended articles for 2010–2012. Bibliographic records are grouped into sections, with the allocation of books / articles of a general nature and local history topics; within sections are given alphabetically by authors and titles. Codes and inventory numbers are given for books. At the end of bibliographic records, in square brackets, storage symbols are indicated ( chz- department of reading rooms, sn- sectors of periodicals, kx- bookkeeping department ab- Subscription department cro- local history department, bl– information and bibliographic department, ots- Department of digital technologies). Literature that is not in SOUNB can be ordered by MBA (interlibrary loan) and received for temporary use. The EDD (electronic document delivery) service will allow you to order copies of the necessary articles.

The "Dissertations" section contains a list of scientific studies for 2010–2012. from Electronic Library dissertations of the Russian State Library. The texts of dissertations and abstracts are available in the virtual reading room in the Department of Digital Technologies (Lenin Ave., 14 A, 3rd floor).

We will be grateful for feedback and suggestions to the compilers:

14 A, Lenin Ave., Samara, 443110 Information and Bibliographic Department (IBO)

Sector of scientific information on culture, art, education, philology (SNIKIOF)

Phone IBO and SNIKIOFF: (8; e-mail: *****@

Phone of the IBA department (for inquiries): (8; e-mail: *****@

Demographic portrait of Russia

2010 census results: population

The 2010 census data show that the population of Russia has decreased from 145.2 million people. in 2002 to 141.9 million people.

In average annual terms, the population of Russia and most of its regions decreased in 2002–2010. faster than in 1989-2002, since in the 1990s. the natural decline was partially offset by large return migration from the CIS and Baltic countries.

The dynamics of the population of the regions during the intercensal periods was different, but the main factors of growth remain, as before, the agglomeration effect and increased birth rates. In the Center and the Northwest, only the population of agglomerations of federal cities is steadily growing. Almost all regions of the Volga region are losing population. In the south and in Siberia, only the population of the republics with a high birth rate is growing, and in the Urals, only the Tyumen region is growing due to its autonomous regions. population decline Far East slowed down, and even stopped in Yakutia, also due to the increased birth rate of the titular population. The former leaders of growth due to the migration influx (Krasnodar Territory, Belgorod, Kaliningrad Regions) have sharply slowed down or are even reducing their population.

Componentspopulation change (thousand people)

Live Vital Data

PROJECT PLAN

"DEMOGRAPHIC PORTRAIT OF STUDENTS OF SCHOOL №1185"

preliminary stage

Before starting the project, the teacher preparatory work: comprehends the main idea of ​​the future project, the purpose and objectives of the project work, approximate research topics, organizational issues. Questionnaires, forms, information about project work. A project team is being formed. The days of the interview with the secretary of the school, the survey of school students are determined.

Starting stage

The teacher voices the idea of ​​the project, provides information on the state of the demographic situation in the country, region and population census data, organizes a discussion of topics for future research of the project. Students express their ideas, hypotheses, write down questions. The teacher motivates students to participate in the project. Students receive homework: find the meanings of words and fix them in the project dictionary. Get acquainted with examples of individual plans for working on a project. The result of this stage is the assessment of the situation at the entrance to the project (formative assessment), the creation of the necessary emotional atmosphere, the formation of the group.

The result of the students' activity is a dictionary of basic terms, the creation of group and individual project routes.

Search stage

Problematic presentation of the material by the teacher, conversation with students on the basis of completed homework (basic concepts, questions), determination of methods for collecting and processing data in support of the hypotheses put forward.

The teacher presents information on the geography of the population of Russia, St. Petersburg and the demographic situation in the region. The students collectively discuss the action plan. The teacher guides the project participants to determine the results of each work. Students create a group work plan, participate in the definition of goals and objectives. Didactic materials - handouts, cards, annotated list of resources, requirements for the group work plan, guiding questions, questionnaires, methodological instructions for conducting research. Days are scheduled for interviews and surveys of school students.

Students study various sources of information, complete assignments, conduct a survey, interview, take pictures, process statistical data, perform creative work, choose the form of presentation of results. Participants organize the material in accordance with the idea of ​​the work. The teacher conducts individual consultations, gets acquainted with the interim reports.

Generalizing stage

In this step, students work on creating a presentation. The teacher presents the templates of the booklet, presentation. Statistical and informational materials, reference books, dictionaries are used. Students systematize the selected material, draw up the results of the work in various forms. At this stage, the reports on the conducted studies are finalized.

Project Completion

A conference is held at which project participants present the results of their work. Reflection of the work on the project is carried out through a discussion of what was done and failed to be done in this project, what issues need to be brought up for discussion in future works. Students express their opinion about participation in the project, their impressions and discoveries. During the summing up, a general conclusion is formulated.