How many houses will be built per year. Suspended plumbing in the interior of the bathroom

MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV experts assessed the situation in all segments of the shopping center market in Russia, as well as outlined key trends and forecasts in the market commercial real estate.

According to the company's specialists, Russia retains its position as the largest shopping center market in Europe. December 2016 total area retail facilities in Russia amounted to more than 20 million square meters. m. Despite the significant volume of commissioning, the provision of Russia with shopping centers remains quite low - about 137 sq. m. m per thousand inhabitants. For comparison, in the European leader in terms of retail space - Norway - this figure is about 910 square meters. m per thousand inhabitants.

The market of shopping and shopping and entertainment centers, according to experts, was influenced by three factors:

• Macro economic situation, which developed in 2015-2016 (decrease in the solvency of the population, depreciation of the ruble, excess supply of retail space over demand in 2015, difficulty in obtaining loans for developers and tenants).
• Opening of MCC stations (for shopping centers in Moscow).
• Strengthening competition between shopping centers with the introduction of new facilities (for shopping centers in Moscow).

Among the main trends in the shopping center market are:

• The desire of tenants to shift part of the capital costs in new projects to landlords (requirements for compensation for finishing or finished repairs in the premises).
• Attraction of co-investors by shopping centers and sale of premises or adjacent land to hypermarkets.
• Widespread transition from a fixed rental rate to a percentage of turnover.
• Merging tenant and landlord to address the issue of increasing conversion: retailers extend discount periods and arrange cross-promotions by merging with each other (Sunlight and Perekrestok, Adamas and Valtera - each with their partner companies, Uniqlo and Prime, Podruzhka ”, “Tervolina” and “Daughters and Sons”, “Ile de Beaute” and “Daughters and Sons”, “Azbuka Vkusa” and Lady & Gentleman), and developers are holding more and more joint promotions with tenants (“Night of sales”, “Black Friday ”, joint prize draws)
• Improvement of B2C promotion technologies by shopping centers.
• Improvement by shopping centers of their composition of tenants and increase in supply for consumers (only for Moscow shopping centers): tenants, competing with each other, offer more attractive prices and promotions for the end consumer.
• Increase in attendance at shopping centers located near open MCC stations (only for Moscow shopping centers).

Offer on the market of shopping centers of the Russian Federation

In 2016, more than 1.4 million sq. m, of which about 60% (900,000 sq. m) are in the regions, which indicates the active expansion of developers. In 2016, commissioning decreased by 15% compared to the previous year. In 2017, an increase in the volume of commissioning is expected - up to the level of 1,065,000 sq. m, which is 20% more than in 2016.

Among the largest new shopping centers in 2016, it is worth noting the Okhta Mall shopping center in St. Petersburg (GLA - 78,000 sq. m), the second stage of the MegaGrinn shopping center in Kursk (GLA - 69,000 sq. m) and the fifth stage of the Greenwich shopping center » in Yekaterinburg (GLA - 65,000 sq. m.).

Shopping centers opened in Russian regions in 2016

Occupancy of shopping centers in the regions of Russia

In 2016, the level of vacant space in shopping centers in Russia, according to the experts of the company SHOP MAGAZINOV, decreased from 10% to 8.5% per year. Retailers assess the current situation with “positive caution”: they feel comfortable in the commercial conditions that have developed during the period and the crisis, and have learned to work with demand. According to experts, now the increase in the size of a number of anchors continues. This happens because the value rent payments now more often depends on the turnover of retailers, and not on the area of ​​the rented retail space.

“This year, developers have realized how important the quality of shopping center management, from marketing to technical operation, plays. The trend of the last year and the entire current period of the market formation is openness in relations between the landlord and the tenant. Modern shopping centers in Moscow and the regions provide their tenants with information about traffic, turnover (including by connecting the sales collection system to the cash desks), about the place of the tenant in the overall rating of the stores of this shopping center in terms of revenue per sq.m.

It can also be noted that due to the fact that landlords began to meet tenants, the share of vacancies in existing and recently opened shopping centers is decreasing, shopping centers are filling up, new interesting concepts are appearing, ”says Alexandra Romashina, Leading Consultant of MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV.

This year, in particular, intensified individual entrepreneurs(IP). For example, most of the entertainment formats in the Riviera shopping center are just individual entrepreneurs: Legogorod, Salt Room, Petting Zoo Zveryushki and much more.

If developers fail to attract tenants of the relevant concepts on the basis of a long-term contract, then they conclude short term contracts with fairs, individual entrepreneurs, pop-up stores of Russian designers and various entertainment formats that can quickly start a business with minimal investment.

As a method of B2C promotion, Moscow shopping centers have also begun to use an educational and cultural format more often than a concert and entertainment one.

Vyacheslav Korkin, Leading Consultant of MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV, comments: “Trends in the market today are such that the approach to the management of the shopping center, to the leasing of space, the behavior of the buyers themselves is changing. All this requires new solutions from developers. In particular, in the field of shopping center promotion, the Moscow public is already fed up with concert and entertainment formats, and they no longer attract visitors as much as a few years ago. So, according to representatives of the Crocus City Mall shopping center, concert and entertainment events in this shopping center do not lead to an increase in sales during the time they are held. However, a conscious decision was made to support this format in order to "nurture" its potential audience. It is assumed that consumers who are used to going to this shopping center for entertainment events will shop there more often.”

Commercial terms of rent in the shopping center of Russia

According to the calculations of the experts of the company SHOP MAGAZINOV, in 2016, rental rates in shopping centers in Russia have not changed.

Rental rates* in rubles in shopping centers opened until 2014 inclusive

* The table shows the ranges of average rental rates for premises in modern-level shopping centers in Moscow (put into operation before 2014), per 1 sq.m. per year, excluding VAT and maintenance payments, as of the end of June 2016.

Some minor changes are observed in the CAP range (the maximum share of rental payments in the total turnover of the tenant, including operating costs, excluding utility bills).

Sports and B&E have optimized their formats - the change in the economic situation has inevitably led to a decrease in the margins of the business of large network players in the sports goods market. In this regard, there is a decrease in ATS in this segment from 8-10% to 4-8%.

As for retailers in the B&E segment, the format of 4,000 - 6,000 sq. m, where CAP was traditionally lower, has almost completely left the market. Instead, only the format of 1,200 - 2,200 sq. m, where CAP is 4-6%.

The increase in the average range for apparel and mall tenants is largely due to the fact that the economic situation has become more stable compared to last year.

An additional factor that has led to an increase in the range of CAPs for tenants of a shopping gallery (format less than 50 sqm) is the increased share of individual entrepreneurs among tenants of this format.

Commercial conditions for shopping centers put into operation since 2015

Changes in legislation in 2016

In 2016, several resolutions were adopted, including the reduction of the period for registering real estate in Moscow to 7 days and the abolition of the issuance of a certificate of registration of rights to real estate.

Among the rejected resolutions are the projects of the Ministry of Industry and Trade on a ban on setting rental rates in foreign currency and on requirements for anti-terrorist protection of retail facilities and on the abolition of preferences for international brands over federal ones (on average, the difference in rental rates is about 20%).

most main theme for disputes among the owners of shopping centers and retailers was the discussion of the decision to reduce the opening hours of shopping centers from 11.00 to 21.00 instead of from 10.00 to 22.00.

Arguments "for" reducing the time of the shopping center:

• reduction of traffic jams;
• savings on wages of sellers and electricity.

Arguments against":

• it makes no sense to rely on data on the distribution of the flow without data on the size of the average check during the day (for most brands in the “Average Plus” price segment, it is higher in the morning);
• loss of the working hour from 21.00 to 22.00, which is characterized by the largest conversion per day;
• reducing the number of visitors due to those who will not be in time after work.

The review was prepared by the specialists of the company SHOP MAGAZINOV

MFC "Tsarskaya Square" in Moscow on Leningradsky Prospekt

Metrium Group analysts summed up the results of the year in the Moscow apartment market. The supply volume decreased by 11.6%. The share of apartments in the overall structure of the housing market also decreased: from 27% to 22%. average price square meter increased by 9.2% over the year.

According to Metrium Group, at the end of 2016, 26 new projects entered the apartment market, which is comparable to the dynamics recent years. In 2015, sales started in 24 complexes, in 2014 - in 26 objects. MOSS Apartments residential complex (Developer - Adwill Management) also entered closed sales.

Apartment projects that entered the market in 2016:

Source: Metrium Group

*1 Sales of apartments opened in 2016, however, apartments in the project were offered earlier.

*2 Reservations have been made since 2015, official sales started in 2016.

*3 There were no sales by the end of the year.

*4 By the end of the year the apartments were converted into flats.

Despite the high development activity, the volume of supply decreased during the year, and by the end of December the correction amounted to 11.6%. According to Metrium Group analysts, there are several reasons for the negative dynamics. During the year, sales of 14 projects were suspended, and the volume of exposition was significantly reduced in several other complexes. In addition, a significant amount of apartments was purchased by AHML to create a base of rental housing lots.

The trend of converting apartments into housing also continued. Lots in the Bunin complex (Vesper), MONE Residences (AB Development) and partially in the Savelovsky City multifunctional complex (MR Group) received the status of apartments.

Thus, at the end of 2016, 9,025[*5] apartments (657,000 sqm) in 98 complexes were exhibited on the market. The share of apartments in the overall structure of the housing market was 22% (in December 2015 - 27%, in 2014 - 36%).

The predominant part of the supply fell on the business segment - 56.5% (-1.5 p.p. compared to December 2015). The rest of the apartments were divided between mass and elite segments: 22.3% and 21.3%, respectively. The share of the former decreased by 3 percentage points over the year, while the share of the latter, on the contrary, increased (by 4.5 percentage points).

*5 Due to the lack of data in open sources of information, the volume of supply for a number of complexes was calculated by experts, based on the total number of apartments under the project, the stage of construction readiness, estimated data on the pace of implementation, and information received from sales managers.

The structure of the supply of apartments by class (by the number of apartments, the inner circle - Q4 2015, the outer circle - Q4 2016):

Source: Metrium Group

According to Metrium Group, there have been significant changes in the structure of supply by districts. The leading position in terms of the volume of apartments was taken by the Central Administrative District - 27.8%, which previously was in second place. Annual growth amounted to 5.4 p.p. The CAO (25.5%) moved down to the second line, its share decreased by 12.3 p.p. ZAO moved up to third place (16%, +7.7 p.p.).

Distribution of the volume of supply by districts of Moscow (projects):

Distribution of the volume of supply by districts of Moscow (apartments):

Source: Metrium Group

According to Metrium Group analysts, at the end of 2016 the average price per sq. m in the apartment market amounted to 291,025 rubles. per sq. m. Over the year, the price level increased by 9.2%, while in previous year there was a negative trend (-6.7%).

During the first three quarters there were slight price fluctuations (within ±1.5%). The main growth was recorded in the 4th quarter - 7.3%. In addition to the increase in prices in projects, the reasons for the significant positive dynamics at the end of the year were the increase in the share of supply in the most expensive district - the Central Administrative District, as well as the removal from sale of an impressive volume of lots with a relatively low price per square meter. m.

Dynamics of the average price per sq. m, rub.:

Source: Metrium Group

The largest increase in the average price for the year was noted in CJSC and CAO - 12.9% and 10.6%, respectively. Negative dynamics was recorded in three districts: Eastern Administrative District (-25.3%), Northern Administrative District (-2.1%) and Central Administrative District (-1.0%). The decrease by a quarter of the average price indicator in the Eastern Administrative District is due to the withdrawal from sale of one of the two projects implemented in the district, which differs more high level prices.

Average price per sq. m, broken down by districts, rub.:

Source: Metrium Group

At the end of 2016, the most affordable apartment offers were:

Studio with an area of ​​16.42 sq. m and cost 2.28 million rubles. in the hotel "Vostok";

Studio with an area of ​​16.03 sq. m and cost 2.3 million rubles. in the CleverLand apart-complex;

Studio with an area of ​​24.20 sq. m and cost 2.5 million rubles. in the studio-quarter "Tsaritsyno".

The most expensive apartments are:

Penthouse of 500 sq. m, worth 1,558.9 million rubles. in the NABOKOV house;

Apartment with an area of ​​1,898.4 sq. m, worth 1,006.2 million rubles. in the Federation Tower complex;

Penthouse with an area of ​​415.80 sq. m, worth 914.8 million rubles. in the multifunctional complex "New Arbat, 32".

Trends 2016

Decrease in the share of apartments. Despite the consistently high dynamics of new projects, the volume of supply in the segment decreased by 11.6% over the year. Against the backdrop of a continued increase in the number of exhibited apartments, this led to a decrease in the share of apartments to 22%, which is the lowest figure in the last four years.

Suspension of project sales. At the end of the year, 14 complexes were withdrawn from sale. In some projects, this is a temporary promotion to revise prices or concepts, and sales can be expected to resume next year. However, there are examples and freezing objects on the market. Some of them are due to the bankruptcy of the developer, some are due to permitting problems with documents.

Transfer of apartments to apartments. In 2016, the list of successful examples of converting the status of apartments into apartments was replenished with new projects. However, the practice did not become streaming, the market did not see a mass transfer of apartments to housing. According to the results of the year, lots in the following complexes received the status of apartments: Bunin (Vesper), MONE Residence (AB Development) and partly in Savelovsky City Multifunctional Complex (MR Group).

The emergence of large transactions. Last year there were two big deals for the purchase of apartments: in the MFC Match Point and Liner. In the first project, the number of lots sold was about 800 pieces (almost half of the total volume of the project), in the second - 295. total amount two transactions - 13 billion rubles.

The predominance of the high-budget segment. The apartment market is still high-budget. Lots of business and elite classes account for the predominant share of supply - 77.7% (growth over the year - 3 percentage points). Moreover, in the context of a decrease in real incomes of the population, the opposite trend is observed in the apartment market - an increase in the share of the mass segment (from 51% to 57%).

Rising prices. Average price per sq. m of apartments showed an increase of 9.2% in 2016. It is impossible to ignore the impact of significant structural changes on the positive dynamics overall indicator. However, it should be noted that developers were also actively raising prices in their projects throughout the year. The rise in prices became possible thanks to high buying activity, despite such constraining factors as the lack of state support in the apartment market and the reduction in budgets for the purchase of apartments.

Kirill KHOLOPIK, Development Institute construction industry

At the end of 2016, the housing commissioning announced by Rosstat amounted to 79.8 million sq. m. m, which is 6.5% less than the same period last year and 5.2% less than in 2014. At the same time, individual construction in 2016 amounted to 31.6 million square meters. m, which is less than last year by 10.2% (by 3.6 million sq. m), and construction apartment buildings— 48.2 million sq. m, which is more modest than the result of 2015 by 3.9% (by 1.9 million sq. m).

The results published by Rosstat are preliminary. As a rule, by May, as the reporting of organizations is clarified, the data on the commissioning of apartment buildings increase. So, in January 2015, Rosstat announced the result of housing commissioning for 2014, citing the figure of 81 million square meters. m. By May, the figure increased by 3.2 million (84.2 million sq. m). In January 2016, Rosstat reported for 83.8 million sq. m. m of housing commissioning in 2015. By May 2016, this figure increased by 1.5 million (85.3 million square meters).

Therefore, we can safely predict that the final figure for the commissioning of housing for 2016 will be about 82 million square meters. m, while in the construction sector of apartment buildings, the level of commissioning will remain at the level of 2015 - about 50 million square meters. m that we and a year ago.

Why did individual construction fall by 10%, but the commissioning of apartment buildings did not decrease? This fact is explained by the fact that Government program subsidizing mortgages concerned only apartment buildings. Those citizens who built individual houses at their own expense, they could not use it.

From this we can conclude: if there were no such program, developers would also rent out housing 10% less, i.e. not 50, but only 45 million square meters. m. Accordingly, the total input would not exceed 75 million square meters. m. Thus, we can evaluate the contribution of mortgage subsidies to overall results for the delivery of housing in 2016.

As for 2017, two factors should be taken into account. Firstly, developers do not reduce the volume of unfinished housing construction. In total, about 105-110 million square meters are being built at construction sites at the same time. m. Usually, the annual commissioning of housing is slightly less than half of the volume of construction in progress.

Secondly, market rates for mortgage loans are falling: they have fallen below 12%. For example, Sberbank, Gazprombank, Uralsib kept the minimum bid at the level of 11.5%. All this allows us to hope that current year, if there are no serious economic shocks, developers will again keep housing commissioning at the same level.

The negative factors include the growing decline in real incomes of the population. If in 2014 it was 0.7%, in 2015 - 3.2%, then in 2016 - almost 6%. These are very alarming figures in terms of housing finance sources.

But, firstly, the trend is such that there will most likely not be a further drop in real incomes. For example, the government has already announced the indexation of pensions. In the last months of 2016, Rosstat records growth wages- the main source of repayment mortgage loans. This is a harbinger of the fact that the economic situation is getting better, there is money that allows citizens to buy real estate. All this may lead to a revival of housing purchases, which should have a positive effect on commissioning volumes.

Another trend should be noted. With a 6.5% drop in housing commissioning, the decrease in the number of commissioned apartments was only 1%. By May, when Rosstat clarifies the data on the commissioning of housing, most likely we will see a record figure for the number of apartments built.

In other words, apartments are becoming smaller in area. For three years, the average area of ​​apartments built by developers has decreased by almost 10%, approaching 50 square meters. m. By reducing the size of apartments, developers quickly respond to changes in the solvency of the population.

At individual construction this mechanism does not work like that: after all, few people build individual houses with an area of ​​\u200b\u200bless than 150 square meters. m. It is difficult for a citizen to build housing with such a footage in the face of falling incomes. Even when a person builds himself, saving literally on everything, it still turns out to be expensive. Therefore, most of those who want to improve their living conditions now prefer to buy apartments.

Until income growth begins, the individual housing sector will continue to stagnate. But if the growth of incomes of the population resumes, then it is possible to increase the volume of housing commissioning.

“The President called housing construction one of the main and priority projects for the development of the country. And for Moscow, this is also a priority. Unfortunately, the provision of housing in the capital is not the highest yet,” he said. Sergei Sobyanin.

According to him, in addition to the construction of residential buildings, it is important to take into account a number of housing construction parameters.

“First of all, it is the quality of residential buildings. On the example of the Severny district, one can compare well the “panels” that were built 15-20 years ago, and the new modern high-quality houses that are being built here,” explained Sergei Sobyanin.

The mayor noted that an important factor is the urban environment comfortable for a person - the improvement of courtyards, the layout of entrances.

Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Urban Planning Policy and Construction Marat Khusnullin said that in the first half of 2016, about 1.5 million "squares" of housing were commissioned.

“This year we see for sure that housing commissioning will be at the level of last year. Our plan is to build at least 3.1 million square meters, but more will definitely be commissioned,” he stressed. M. Khusnullin.

Recall that the feature residential complex"On the Dmitrov highway» that only environmentally friendly materials are used here. These are not faceless high-rise buildings, but bright houses with individual facade solutions.

The apartments have convenient layout. There are large rooms, kitchens, hallways, spacious bright balconies. The area of ​​apartments varies from 41 to 82 square meters. m - there are one-, two- and three-room apartments.

The project of the residential complex "On Dmitrovskoe Shosse" is a fundamentally new look at urban housing. It was developed by Russian specialists together with the well-known Italian bureau IOSA GHINI ASSOCIATI.

The construction is divided into two stages, each including five buildings. The first five houses have already been built.

The concept of "yard without cars" has been implemented on the territory of the residential complex - there is no traffic here, the yards are reserved for recreation areas for children and adults. For the convenience of car owners, a multi-level ground parking will be built.

The crisis hits not so much the ruble, but the goods that are customary in our country to purchase for national currency. After a sharp jump in the dollar and constant volatility in the market foreign exchange, realtors in Moscow and private individuals abandoned the idea of ​​setting the cost per square meter in dollars and euros, since in this case you have to edit ads almost every day in order not to miscalculate or, conversely, not to frighten a potential buyer.

Cost dynamics 2014-2016

- in 1-room apartments meter rose by an average of 9.2%,
- in 2-room apartments meter on average rose by 11.1%.
- in 3-room apartments meter rose by an average of 12.6%,

Realtors explain this phenomenon as follows - three-room apartments have always been a kind of "illiquid asset", the sale of which had to sweat, spending much more time on it than on "odnushki" and "dvushki". At the same time, three-room apartments in Moscow are not being rented as readily as 1- and 2-room apartments, and the average rental price differs by only 17%, while the area of ​​"three-room apartments" is much higher. Three-room apartments have always been and will be a good asset for those wishing to invest an increasingly depreciating ruble in a commodity that is stable in terms of value, but liquidity leaves much to be desired. For this reason, the average cost per square meter of a three-room apartment in Moscow is growing - in this way, the owners are trying to cover the costs associated with maintaining square meters and get the money that was paid for housing, which, as it was, remained classified as "above average" .

According to the results of 6 months of 2015, in which the highest inflation rates were recorded in Russia (from June to mid-December), the growth dynamics of the average cost per square meter is as follows:

Average cost of M2 housing in Moscow in 2016

One-room apartments in Moscow in 2016 will show the lowest growth in the segment, despite the growing need of buyers for cheap housing. This is explained by simple competition from developers, who, according to official statistics, have increased the number of "odnushki" in new buildings by about 7-10 percent. In this case, the average cost will rise by the calculated 7-8 percent during the year and is as of the day of writing 201 thousand rubles.

Average prices for two-room apartments in Moscow in 2016 are within 203 thousand rubles per 1 square meter, which is the second indicator in the segment and is ahead of the data of 2015 by 7-7.4% .

Average cost per square meter of housing in three-room apartment in Moscow in 2016 is growing by 10%, outpacing the closest followers for the third year in a row. 207 thousand rubles on average, a square costs three rubles and does not promise to be cheaper until the situation on the housing market improves, which does not have to wait for at least the next 2-3 years.