“We are entering a phase of fear for the ruble.” The best forecaster Bloomberg predicted a strong future for the ruble Analyst nomura pic Dmitry Petrov audio

Petrov believes that in the next three months the dollar will fall in price from 74 to 67 rubles, provided that oil prices remain at the level of $35-40 per barrel. By the end of the year, the dollar will reach 65 rubles. Average rate dollar in 2016 will be 69 rubles, the analyst believes.

According to Petrov’s forecast, the ruble will strengthen against the backdrop of an influx of funds into depreciated assets, as well as due to the fact that the population will show less interest in the dollar as a means of accumulating capital. In addition, according to the expert, the need for American currency will also decrease among business representatives due to the fact that the volume of payments for external debt will be halved.

The Russian currency, Petrov believes, will be an attractive, albeit risky, asset for investors this year. “The demand factor has really changed. The trend outlook is changing towards the strengthening of the ruble from current levels", the expert emphasized.

Meanwhile, Barclays in early January lowered its forecast for the ruble exchange rate for the first quarter to 76 rubles per dollar. Previously, the bank predicted an exchange rate of 71 rubles per dollar in the first quarter. By the end of 2016, the exchange rate will drop to 78 rubles per dollar, the bank predicts.

Alfa-Bank economists expect the exchange rate to fall to 80 rubles per dollar in the first quarter of 2016.

It is also worth noting that the majority of experts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Russian currency to weaken to 90 rubles per dollar.

Let us recall that in the last days of 2015 the ruble was updated twice historical lows. On December 31, the Central Bank set the exchange rate of the American currency at 72.8827 rubles, which is the maximum since the 1998 denomination.

Earlier, on December 25, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that in 2016 the value of the ruble will fall following falling oil prices.

A few days earlier, Elvira Nabiullina, Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, noted that volatility national currency decreases. According to her, a floating exchange rate regime is best suited for the Russian economy in the current conditions.

At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Alexey Ulyukaev, said: the main problem for Russian economy It is not the high or low exchange rate, but the fact that it fluctuates greatly. Ulyukaev recalled that 2015 began with a rate just above 60 rubles per dollar, in the middle of the year it fell to almost 40 rubles, and has now returned to 70 rubles. Business cannot adapt to such great volatility, Ulyukaev said.

Billionaire Alisher Usmanov, who founded USM Holdings, in turn, said at the end of December that next year will not be easier than this, and, perhaps, will be even more difficult - the price trend does not allow us to hope that there will be a sharp upward rebound. We need to learn to live in new economic realities, the businessman urges.

On Monday, January 11, the price of Brent oil is in negative dynamics. By 10:26 Moscow time it had decreased by 1.64% to $33 per barrel. WTI oil is falling in price more noticeably today, the cost of which by this time had decreased by 2.43% - to $32.36 per barrel.

The price of oil reached its lowest level since 2004 last week, when the Brent brand lost more than 4% of its value and fell below $33. The reason for this was monetary policy China (the largest consumer of oil after the United States, creating demand for it) - National Bank China weakened the yuan against the dollar by more than 1.5% over the past week, the biggest change in the currency's value since deflation in August that rocked global stock markets.

Despite the continuing decline oil prices From January 12, the Bank of Russia increased the official US dollar exchange rate by 3.02 rubles, to 75.9507 rubles. The official euro exchange rate added 3.17 rubles and will be 82.8090 rubles starting tomorrow.

The most accurate “ruble analyst” according to Bloomberg is Dmitry Petrov from Nomura International Plc. announced a “phase of fear for the ruble.”

During the first trading days of this year, the ruble depreciated against the dollar by 4%. Can we say that we are at the stage of selling off the ruble due to expectations of lower oil prices?

This is a rather interesting moment; we are entering a phase of fear, not entirely justified panic about the ruble. The situation, of course, is not comparable to what it was at the end of 2014, but this trend is indicated by the positioning of investors in the market, whose fears do not always lead to correct assessments of the situation. This mood, by the way, is connected not only with the ruble; there is a lot of panic in relation to China, although we believe that the problems that exist in Chinese stock market, do not reflect the problems of the economy. Oil prices, which are now at very low levels, are also more likely to be explained by speculative pressure than by fundamental factors. The excess oil that is on the market is not so critical and does not make the price of $30 per barrel logical. All these external factors put pressure on the ruble, but the market has not fully assessed the influence of internal factors that actually support the ruble.

What do you mean by internal factors? This is politics Central Bank?

Including. The rather tough and cautious policy of the Bank of Russia provides some support to the ruble; without it, the situation would have been more negative. Another important factor is the budget changes that are currently being considered. This is of great interest to investors. Everyone understands that the most in a simple way The way to balance the budget would be to devalue the ruble, but in the last 2-3 months we have seen that the discussion is more about cutting costs. This is a strong signal that there is a structurally correct approach to solving budgetary problems, and if the Ministry of Finance insists on this option, there will be a fairly serious revaluation of the ruble in a positive direction. Finally, we are seeing a change in the behavior of the population, which has often been a disruptive participant foreign exchange market with sharp jumps in rates. Now it has ceased to react sharply to them. The Russian authorities do not plan to strengthen the ruble too much, according to the words of President Vladimir Putin. At a meeting with Russian industrialists at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, in response to a request from the director of one of the companies not to let the dollar exchange rate fall, Putin said that the government supports this thesis. "The Central Bank has many regulatory instruments. This regulation will be used to ensure the interests of our producers in real sector", the president promised. In this case, how best to manage your savings? RBC addressed this question to the forum participants - officials, bankers and investors.

What explains this? And is there any possibility that, following the panic among professional investors Will Russians rush to buy dollars?

There is always such a risk. But we saw that during the last sharp fluctuations there was no panic among the population. Firstly, there is a certain getting used to both such volatility and new levels. Secondly, people who had savings and wanted to convert them into foreign currency have most likely already done so. Moreover we see strong fall There is now much less real income of the population, that is, free money to buy dollars from Russians. Thus, the balance of factors suggests that, most likely, there will be no panic among the population. Moreover, we see that the demand for currency from corporations is also decreasing. Considering the positive balance current balance, which persists despite the fall in oil prices due to compression of imports, and a decrease in capital outflow, one can expect stabilization of the currency. In general, we are now approaching new, not yet fully realized, structural changes in the formation of the dynamics of the ruble. - The correlation of the ruble to oil, which was very high last year, was probably primarily justified by the expectations of investors. When the price of oil fell, players who needed to buy dollars to pay external debts or other purposes, tried to do this in advance. Nowadays this behavior is less common. And if the right steps are taken in budget policy, the correlation will decrease significantly.

What is your forecast for the ruble for 2016?

I'm waiting for the ruble to strengthen. By the end of the first quarter, we expect oil prices to stabilize in the range of $35–40 per barrel. This should change investor sentiment, and the ruble could strengthen to 66–68 rubles/dollar. At the same time, it is unlikely that the ruble will be significantly stronger than these levels during 2016: we believe that if the ruble strengthens to 60 rubles/dollar. with oil around $40 per barrel, we can expect intervention from the Central Bank, which will again begin to accumulate reserves.

The Russian currency completed pre-Christmas trading with a significant weakening against its key counterparts. The fall against the dollar was 1.44 rubles, against the euro - 1.92 rubles. At today's session, the domestic currency starts at ₽74.7590/dollar. and ₽80.6480/euro.

The ruble will begin trading on Monday against the backdrop of significantly sagging oil, the cost of which during the holidays approached the 30-dollar mark ($33.19 at 08:52 Moscow time). New wave the fall in prices was provoked by Saud. Arabia, which provided European customers with a discount on supplied raw materials. The situation is aggravated by the weakening of the Chinese economy, an oversupply of inventories in the United States and an imbalance between the production and consumption of raw materials.

Experts, meanwhile, continue to make forecasts for the ruble exchange rate for this year. The most accurate forecasters from Bloomberg and Moskovsky Komsomolets shared their thoughts on this matter the day before.

“Number 1” in the rating of the American agency is Dmitry Petrov from Nomura International Plc., who predicted an exchange rate of ₽75.15/dollar for January 2016, expects the national currency to strengthen to ₽67.00 and ₽65.00 during the starting trimester and by the end of the year, respectively.

According to the economist, the dollar/ruble pair is not far off from reaching the exchange rate bottom.

“Therefore, we will consider the possibility of buying Russian currency in the coming weeks,” Petrov admitted.

The strengthening of the domestic currency, according to Petrov, will be facilitated by factors within the Russian Federation, coupled with the influx of funds into cheap Russian assets.

Economists at Barclays Plc. do not share the “ruble optimism” of Petrov and the company, declaring vague prospects for the Russian monetary unit in light of the extremely cheap oil in the current state of the Russian economy and the unclear prospects of the PRC.

Updated on January 6, the forecast of Barclays experts for January-March is the dollar at ₽76.00 (instead of the previously announced level of ₽71.00). At the end of 2016, experts from the British Financial Institute predict “green” to be around ₽78.00.

The most successful forecaster of "MK" Ruslan Grinberg from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences exactly a year ago he predicted the dollar exchange rate of ₽74.65 on 01/10/2016. The expert, who was wrong by only 10.9 kopecks, cited the incompetence of the government and the Central Bank as the reason for the fall of the national currency (the officials’ forecast for RUR/USD, we recall, assumed an exchange rate of ₽63.00).

The fall in production in China, plans to resume the export of Iranian oil and the excess of supply over demand, according to Greenberg, were obvious last year.

“They didn’t take it seriously,” the academician comments on the authorities’ mistakes. “They also didn’t take into account that there is a lot of pure psychology in prices. Our leaders' nerves turned out to be stronger than those of the market.

Greenberg called the Central Bank’s decision to liberalize the currency regime in a state dependent on oil prices “an adventure for which we are all now paying.”

The academician’s forecast for RUR/USD for 2016 is balancing within the range of ₽65-100.

“I’ll be more precise only if I find out that radical changes in monetary policy are being prepared,” the economist summed up.

The beginning of the year is the time to make forecasts. This is what analysts do, including for the ruble. What was predicted for the Russian currency by the person who previously gave the most accurate forecasts for it.

We are talking about Dmitry Petrov from Nomura International, who once again shared his opinion with Bloomberg. Note that he ranks first in the rating of 34 agency forecasters over the past four quarters.

Dmitry is confident that the worst is over for the ruble, as well as for oil prices. He believes that after falling to record lows, both oil prices and the Russian currency will show growth. However, you shouldn’t expect any miracles.

According to Petrov’s forecast, in three quarters the dollar to ruble exchange rate will be 67 rubles. versus 76 rub. for a dollar now. By the end of the year, the ruble will strengthen further - to 65 rubles. for a dollar.

“We believe that the dollar-ruble pair is approaching peak values and are considering the possibility of buying the ruble in the coming weeks,” Petrov wrote in a client note.

The expert also cites other factors. In particular, he notes a decrease in demand for currencies from domestic players. Payments on external debt amount to less than $15 billion, that is, almost half as much as in 2015. In addition, Petrov does not exclude demand for Russian assets from non-residents, which will also support the ruble.

Bank of America, for example, in its latest review dated January 7, recommended buying Russian bonds.

If you look at the consensus forecast of Bloomberg analysts, the dollar to ruble exchange rate will be at around 69 rubles for most of the year, which also indicates strengthening. What is the probability that all these experts will be wrong about the direction of travel? The question is rhetorical.

However, not everyone is optimistic about the future of the ruble. Barclays experts, for example, say that the prospects for the Russian currency look very dim as the economy is in recession, oil is hovering at its lowest levels in almost 12 years, and the growth of China, Russia's largest trading partner, is slowing. And although this is a set of obvious facts rather than a forecast, you can’t argue with these facts. By the way, Barclays is waiting for 78 rubles. per dollar by the end of the year.

It is also worth saying a few words about the opinion of Russian experts. Economic commentator Grigory Beglaryan believes that the fall in oil prices is coming to an end, and therefore he believes that in the near future it is possible to begin to form long position. As a target range, he designated the levels of $28-30 per barrel, and given the high dynamics of decline, oil could go up a little earlier - from $32.

As a rule, a change in trend does not happen just like that, but along with a change in the information background. The largest media are beginning to publish a lot of relevant information, however, this is not yet the case.

- Why are your forecasts more accurate than other forecasters?

There are two aspects to any forecast - fundamental factors and psychological factors, that is, the mood of market participants, their sense of how calm or panicked the market is, what stage of the cycle it is in, etc. The fundamental models of most analysts who make forecasts for the ruble are approximately the same.

- So the differences in forecasts are mainly explained by the interpretation of investor sentiment?

Yes, everyone draws their own conclusions after communicating with market participants. I spend half of my working time talking with investors from all over the world, and the impressions from this communication, their thoughts about what will happen to the ruble, their negative or positive attitude towards this currency significantly influences my forecasts. Simple technical positioning is not enough and does not take into account, for example, panic cycles. Therefore, we can say that my job is to adjust fundamental calculations to the sentiments of market players.

During the first trading days of this year, the ruble depreciated against the dollar by 4%. Can we say that we are at the stage of selling off the ruble due to expectations of lower oil prices?

This is a rather interesting moment; we are entering a phase of fear, not entirely justified panic about the ruble. The situation, of course, is not comparable to what it was at the end of 2014, but this trend is indicated by the positioning of investors in the market, whose fears do not always lead to correct assessments of the situation. This mood, by the way, is connected not only with the ruble; there is a lot of panic in relation to China, although we believe that the problems that exist in the Chinese stock market do not reflect the problems of the economy. Oil prices, which are now at very low levels, are also more likely to be explained by speculative pressure than by fundamental factors. The excess oil that is on the market is not so critical and does not make the price of $30 per barrel logical. All these external factors put pressure on the ruble, but the market has not fully appreciated the influence of internal factors that actually support the ruble.

- What do you mean by internal factors? Is this the policy of the Central Bank?

What explains this? And is there a possibility that, following the panic among professional investors, Russians will rush to buy dollars?

There is always such a risk. But we saw that during the last sharp fluctuations there was no panic among the population. Firstly, there is a certain getting used to both such volatility and new levels. Secondly, people who had savings and wanted to convert them into foreign currency have most likely already done so. In addition, we see a strong drop in real incomes of the population, that is, Russians now have much less free money to buy dollars. Thus, the balance of factors suggests that, most likely, there will be no panic among the population. Moreover, we see that the demand for currency from corporations is also decreasing. Considering the positive current account balance, which remains despite the fall in oil prices due to the compression of imports, and the decrease in capital outflow, we can expect stabilization of the currency. In general, we are now approaching new, not yet fully realized, structural changes in the formation of the dynamics of the ruble.

- That is, the ruble exchange rate will gradually decouple from oil prices?

The correlation between the ruble and oil, which was very high last year, was probably primarily justified by investor expectations. When the price of oil fell, players who needed to purchase dollars to pay off foreign debts or for other purposes tried to do so in advance. Nowadays this behavior is less common. And if the right steps are taken in fiscal policy, the correlation will decrease significantly.

- What is your forecast for the ruble for 2016?

Interviewed by Siranush SHAROYAN