The book world compass recommends three new works. Causing melancholy

– molten

In its latest publication, 2052 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, the Club of Rome takes a bold stance on the future.

The sixty-six scientists and economists who compiled the club's forecast (the same number as for the first Limits to Growth forecast in 1972) believe that the current economic development may soon fall on his shoulder blades.

Already in a report from 1972, the club warned that the future of the world would depend on the future use of energy. Unlike today's beliefs, the assumptions of the 70s were based on the fact that fossil fuels - oil and gas - would soon run out. And after the publication of the report in 1972, their predictions seemed to be coming true. Oil crisis 1973 and the crisis of 1979/80 led to sharp growth prices, and industrialized countries suffered a recession as a consequence.

"The Limits to Growth" was a milestone in which the Club of Rome for the first time used complex mathematical models to predict the future interdependence of social, environmental and economic factors.

The models took into account the limited availability of natural resources, global industrial productivity, food production, population growth and environmental pollution.

The main thesis was that the approaching reduction of non-renewable resources will affect all other factors. Resource declines were predicted to occur as early as the 1970s, and by 2015 food production and global industry will decrease, leading to a reduction in the world population.

This scenario is no longer relevant, but the new Club of Rome again predicts the end of growth, this time by 2050. Stagnation will be accompanied by a global recession, which will lead to population decline.

But a look back at the 1972 forecast shows how difficult it is to make reliable predictions for such complex scenarios. People have proven to be more resourceful and adaptable than the report expected. The oil crisis of the 1970s led to the development and exploitation of previously unknown sources of fossil fuels. Today, deep-sea drilling is no surprise, although in 1972 the very thought of it was unimaginable.

Also, the Club of Rome failed to predict the pressures of modernization that led to structural changes away from heavy industry towards a society with advanced technology and a service economy: the rise of the computer era in the 1980s, the Internet in the 90s and advances in energy and environment, as well as nanotechnology.

The new study also puts complex issues: Will the discovery of methane hydrate be the solution? energy problems future, or will it only add problems to the environment? What strategies will political leaders follow? What role will oil sands play in the future energy mix? How quickly will renewable energy become truly competitive?

Self-feeding prophecies?

New forecasting models are becoming more sophisticated and complex. However, there is still a problem that they are unable to take into account: the degree of influence that these forecasts themselves have. If people accept the idea that changing policies and behavior will improve their lives, they are more likely to do so. Club of Rome general secretary Ian Johnson said "business as usual" is not an option if people want to leave a planet that is still habitable for future generations.

Winners and Losers

Turning its attention to politics, the Club of Rome predicts a shift in power and influence from the United States to China. China's non-democratic structure is actually an advantage for China because the government can implement its policies more easily and quickly than in a democracy.

However, the report does not say whether China can maintain this advantage for long. A 1972 report showed that political events difficult to predict, as was the case with the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, one thing the Club of Rome rules out is a military confrontation between Washington and Beijing.

In terms of the economic future, small and medium-sized companies in the United States and other industries will be hit the hardest by future changes. developed countries, as these are the least innovative sectors. The club believes that by 2052, China will achieve per capita income two-thirds that of the United States.

What changes will happen to our planet before 2052? Very many, says Norwegian business school professor Jørgen Randers. In the video he gives short review his book “2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”...

What changes will happen to our planet before 2052? Very many, says Norwegian business school professor Jørgen Randers.

In the video, he gives a brief overview of his book 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, which predicts world development and questions are raised about the survival of the planet. He describes the year 2052 in terms of slow economic growth, unrelenting unemployment, social unrest, rising inequality and ever-worsening climate conditions.

“All this will happen chaotically, according to an unpredictable scenario, and after a while everything will reach such an extreme that it will become dangerous,” Randers notes. He admits that he is deliberately provocative in his work: “I hope that my impartial and arrogant behavior and harsh criticism of democratic society will make someone outraged and say “enough is enough,” this is too stupid. That's my goal."

What's next for ISO? According to Randers, the role of ISO is very important and useful. “The fact that there are standards that force market participants to play by the same rules to create a single global platform, even at the expense of additional costs, is remarkable,” he adds. “The very fact that ISO has been around for so long gives us hope because it means that a democratic society can make decisions in a fair and equitable manner.”

Jorgen Randers is co-author of The Limits of Growth, a groundbreaking study of how humanity can adapt to the limits imposed by finite natural resources. This book became an environmental bestseller. In 2012, the author updated the results of the 1972 study.

02.12.14

Minister of Construction and Housing and Communal Services Russian Federation Mikhail Men and the Minister of Architecture and Construction of the Republic of Belarus Anatoly Cherny signed an agreement on cooperation between...

01.12.14

As part of the Russian exhibition with international participation“PIPES AND PIPELINE SYSTEMS. Oil. Gas. Housing and Communal Services", which was held in Moscow on November 25 - 27, 2014, at the All-Russian Exhibition Center, a conference was held on the topic "Innovative...

2052: global forecast for the next forty years - Jorgen Randers

In 1972, Jørgen Renders, a professor of climate strategy at the Norwegian business school BI, and a group of scientists launched a project to predict how humanity would adapt to physical constraints on planet Earth over the next 40 years. The results were published in The Limits to Growth, which explores one scenario at a time in which human existence will inevitably exceed the planet's ability to support us - unless we make a conscious decision to change our ways. Humanity does not even think of changing, which prompted Renders to write the book 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. With the help of friends and colleagues, Renders tries to answer questions ranging from “Will I be poorer?” and “Will we be affected by a changing climate?” to “Will the world be a better place in 2052?” Although at times overly sentimental, Renders's carefully researched position provides a thorough and thought-provoking analysis of the situation in which humanity finds itself. And while he acknowledges that we have a lot to worry about, Renders is not trying to intimidate, but rather push us into action.

416 pages, Chelsea Green, June 2012, $34.95 (hardcover)
http://www.chelseagreen.com/bookstore/item/2052:hardcover

Fragility in reverse - Nassem Nicholas Taleb

The Times of London once dubbed Nassem Nicholas Taleb, an expert on the disorderly, the uncertain and the probable, a “world thinker.” His critically acclaimed book The Black Swan (2007) explored rare and unpredictable events, and his latest work, Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, responded to his resounding success. The essence of the idea contained in the book is that institutions, companies and institutions that are distinguished by “fortress” or “stability” are created on the principle of maximum impermeability and self-sufficiency, which makes them vulnerable to events, including attacks by terrorists classified as true cataclysms. Unlike simply strong ones, “non-fragile” solutions are designed to withstand sudden shocks and uncertain circumstances, and only become stronger and more secure in the process of overcoming constant difficulties. The book comprehensively discusses the lack of modern world proper predictability, as well as the presence, from Taleb’s position, of a distorted logic of erecting institutions in the form of insurmountable strongholds. His ability to decisively and convincingly present the theory of preparing for the unpredictable or Black Swan events will appeal to entrepreneurs, business owners and today's students.

560 pages, Random House, November 27, 2012, $30 (hardcover)
www.randomhouse.com

Culture Shock: A Handbook for 21st Century Business - Will McInnes

Business on modern stage— terribly disjointed, says Will McInnes, social media guru and author of Culture Shock: A Handbook for 21st Century Business. Can anything be fixed? McInnes, co-founder and managing director of Nixon McInnes, a UK-based consultancy specializing in online marketing and social networks, is sure of this and gives the corresponding recipe in his book. The book provides real-life examples real companies(including Apple, Google and HCL Technologies) who have moved away from the 20th century model of hierarchical, categorical and sedentary organization to think about things differently. Using these companies as examples, Will reveals a step-by-step approach to creating a more open, creative, motivated and productive workspace that is also much more productive. Relying on useful facts and numbers, Culture Shock offers social media data as well as crowdsourced opinions and reviews. McInnes constantly asks relevant questions, helping readers connect more deeply with the new and tech-savvy workforce.

There is an opinion that everything will end soon. Not as fast as in Lars von Trier's apocalyptic film Melancholia, but it seems just as inevitable. Forty years ago, scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology created a computer model called World3, which calculated different scenarios: what would happen to resources, population and environment in the next hundred years.

According to the "everything goes as it goes" scenario, we continue to consume as much as the laws of the free market suggest (that is, more than the Earth's resources allow) with corresponding economic growth and environmental depletion. As a result, by 2030 there will be a powerful economic collapse, in comparison with which previous crises and defaults will seem like prosperity. The population will plummet, food and clean water will become scarce, and environmental disasters will worsen. True, World3 also offered an optimistic scenario, according to which world economy does not eat itself, but for this, governments had to introduce restrictions and start investing in “green” technologies and renewable energy sources. The idea of government intervention in the market in 1972 caused a storm of indignation and talk that this would lead to collapse and poverty.

It would be possible to ignore the predictions of forty years ago. After all, the longer the forecast, the less accurate it is. However, Australian physicist Graham Turner compared World3's forecast with actual data from 1970 to 2000. It turned out that for all thirty years we have carefully followed the worst-case scenario proposed (see graph). Independently of Turner, PBL, the Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency, comes to the same conclusion.

The reasons for the impending disaster may be different. Jorgen Randers, one of the co-authors of the World3 project, published a book in early June called 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, in which he argues that global warming will play a major role. It will especially intensify by the middle of the century and will result in droughts, floods and fires, food shortages, growing inequality and global conflicts. Graham Turner, analyzing the graphs, suggests that everything will happen even earlier, and not because of warming, but as a result of the depletion of available oil sources. Development will continue until 2015, and then a decline will begin, because available oil is running out, and inaccessible oil (for example, from the bottom of the ocean) is very expensive to extract. Most likely, there will be a whole complex of factors that are still difficult to accurately describe and which at one point will begin to reinforce themselves.

As stated in a recent report by the World Wildlife Fund, if we had a second planet like this, resources would still be scarce.

Scientists state that the world economy has too much inertia, therefore, even if we begin to radically change something today, a catastrophe cannot be avoided. In fact, it has already begun. If you've traveled around Asia, you've probably noticed that in Kathmandu, Ulaanbaatar, Kanpur and dozens of other cities the air is so dirty that people wear respirators and bandages, like in dark science fiction novels. During industrialization, the West also had its own ecological problems, which were managed to settle with economic growth. The problem is that economic growth is nearing completion, and environmental disasters are reaching a whole new level.

There is a Buddhist parable: the number of lotuses on the surface of a pond grows twice as many every day. One day a fool will look at him and say: a whole half of the pond is still free, not suspecting that there is only one day left until the end. Judging by the graphs, our pond is already half overgrown.

06:06 05.07.2013

It is easier for people to accept high prices for energy resources and food than to radically change their consumer attitudes.

Roman Club, international organization, which aims to attract the attention of the world community to global problems, recently presented a report entitled “The Abused Planet.” Its author is the Italian chemist Ugo Bardi. The very title of the report makes it clear that the Club of Rome's forecasts for the near future are pessimistic. Bardi writes that modern civilization depends on oil, rare metals and phosphates, the reserves of which are depleting. “Even before the minerals run out, the world will no longer be able to extract them,” he warns. According to the scientist, soon it will be necessary to spend more energy to extract oil and gas than can be obtained from them later. Therefore, investments in the energy production industry will become unprofitable. “Already, the mining industry consumes 10% of all diesel fuel produced in the world,” writes Bardi. There are low concentrations of fossils left on Earth. To extract them, you have to drill or dig deeper, using increasingly expensive technologies. "Fossil fire extinction" and destruction of ecosystems due to high concentration greenhouse gases, according to Hugo Bardi, will transform the planet beyond recognition. “We will live on a completely different Earth - on a planet with different climatic conditions and very limited resources", writes the scientist. And if humanity does not adapt to the shortage of raw materials, it will return to the pre-industrial era. Even if it is possible to maintain electricity production through alternative sources, the new society will still have to abandon airplanes and highways and be content only with the Internet and robots.

Interestingly, in an interview with the Zeit newspaper, Ugo Bardi claims that the forecast he compiled is not at all gloomy. In addition, according to him, the Club of Rome does not believe that one day the Earth will run out of mineral resources. “Resources will not be completely used up, but they will become more expensive all the time. We have less and less energy at our disposal, but we need more and more of it in order to extract mineral resources, which are also being depleted. It turns out to be a vicious circle: we invest more and more in resources in order to obtain other resources - at an increasingly higher cost, says Bardi. “Someday we will have to come to terms with the fact that energy will become very expensive, and we will be forced to make adjustments to its consumption.” This is precisely what the scientist believes is the most a big problem. “It is easier for our society to accept high prices than to radically change our views and attitudes. If gasoline prices rise, people simply buy more economical car and they drive it less. Meanwhile, the problem of resource shortages may escalate much faster than we expect, perhaps so quickly that it will come as a shock to people. And they will have no choice but to ride a bicycle or walk. Our research aims to warn people about this now,” says Bardi.

It is one thing to warn humanity against the consequences of limitless consumption of resources, and another to propose a way to move from a model of economic and technological growth to a model sustainable development. And here there is scope for ideas, sometimes utopian. For example, Swiss economist Hans Binswanger believes that economic growth and consumption are most stimulated by loans and interest payments, and accordingly, this shop needs to be closed. In addition, he proposes to reform joint-stock companies into funds or cooperatives in order to introduce restrictions into their dividend policy.

Some experts offer even more radical ideas for reorganizing society, thanks to which, they believe, it is possible to achieve sustainable development, and in particular, moderate the appetite for resource consumption. German professor and entrepreneur Goetz Werner believes that the model in which you have to work to get money is outdated. In his opinion, we should switch to a model of guaranteed payments, when each person, regardless of what he does in life or whether he does anything at all, is paid a certain amount monthly. To implement such a system, it is necessary to abolish social payments and pensions, as well as taxes.

Another original idea aimed at saving resources is the so-called collective consumption. It was expressed in the book “What’s Mine is Yours” by the American Rachel Boatswain, who calls herself a “social innovator.” The essence of the idea is that consumers buy certain products not to own them, but to use them. That is, they are interested not in the CD as an object, but in the music recorded on it, not in the TV, but in what is shown on it, not in the drill, but in the holes in the wall. Consequently, industry needs to switch to producing not goods, but the benefits that these goods bring. Thus, televisions or drills remain the property of the manufacturer (he is also responsible for their disposal), and consumers only pay a fee for using them, and after using them, they pass them on to other consumers. That is, the whole system resembles one large rental point.

All of these are, of course, mind games. Nevertheless, humanity will apparently still have to “reform thinking” in connection with the problems that the Club of Rome draws attention to. It’s just important not to waste time. “In 1972, we set aside 50 years for a change in direction,” writes Dennis Meadows, author of the famous report “The Limits to Growth. Report to the Club of Rome." “But now time has compressed, and politicians are still trying to follow the beaten path. Global problems climate change, depletion of oil resources, degradation of agricultural land, shortage of fresh water and their consequences have already manifested themselves or will manifest themselves over the next few decades. It's not too late to take the path of sustainable development. However, many serious opportunities have been lost due to 35 years of denial of obvious facts.”

Discovery:Club of Rome forecasts for 2052

Last year, the Club of Rome published the report “2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years.” It states that the world's population will increase and will peak in 2042 at 8.1 billion inhabitants. Global GDP will rise and peak after 2052, but at a much slower rate than expected as mature economies see little productivity growth. The peak of energy consumption on the planet will be in 2040, the maximum level of carbon dioxide emissions will be in 2030. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will increase, and the average temperature on the planet will exceed the dangerous mark of +2 degrees in 2050. The US economy will experience unprecedented stagnation. The growth of the economies of China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa will continue. However, 3 billion people on the planet will live in extreme poverty.