What books does Nassim Taleb read? Nassim Taleb.

Never marry a rock star

The barbell strategy (aka the two-tier strategy) is a way to gain antifragility and move into the right column of the Triad. Monogamous birds have made it a rule to cheat on their other half with a local rock star, and writers write better when they have a day job that has nothing to do with writing.

About the irreparability of a damaged parcel

The first step to antifragility is to reduce losses rather than increase gains; Simply put, you become less vulnerable to negative Black Swans and allow your natural antifragility to work.

Reducing fragility is not an option, but a requirement. If this statement seems trivial to you, you risk missing the point. Because fragility is very debilitating, almost like a fatal disease. It does not happen that a package is first damaged in unfavorable conditions, and then, when conditions improve, it manages to repair itself. The fragility is similar to a ratchet mechanism, allowing the axle to rotate in only one direction. Meanwhile, not only the goal is important - the path to it, the sequence of events is also important. Scientists talk about sequence dependence in such cases. Let's demonstrate it with an example: if you first have a kidney stone removed and then undergo anesthesia, this is not at all the same as the same two events in a different sequence. If you drink coffee and dessert first, and then eat tomato soup, your experience will be different than if you serve the dishes in a different order. Given sequence dependence, our approach can be explained simply: recognizing fragility and placing it in the left column of the Triad is easy, no matter what our potential gains are; what's broken stays broken forever.

The fragility that comes from dependence on consistency is often overlooked by business people; they are accustomed to thinking statically and believe that their main mission is to create profit, and issues of survival and risk management should be considered only insofar as they are. Thus they commit logical fallacy: In fact, survival always precedes success. To make a profit and buy a BMW, you first need to simply survive.

Concepts like “speed” and “growth”—all things that relate to movement—are empty and meaningless if considered without taking fragility into account. Imagine someone driving through the streets of New York at 400 kilometers per hour; this person will definitely not get anywhere - his effective speed is exactly zero kilometers per hour. And although it is clear that the main thing here is effective speed, not nominal speed, something in the sociopolitical discourse does not allow us to realize this elementary truth.

Anyone who knows about sequence dependence does not separate economic growth from the risk of recession, financial income- from the risk of loss and bankruptcy, “efficiency” - from the risk of disaster. The concept of efficiency in itself loses all meaning. When a gambler puts all his assets on the line and risks losing them, it doesn't matter what the "potential returns" from his strategy might be. A few years ago, a professor boasted to me that their endowment fund was earning about 20 percent a year, not realizing that this income was associated with fragility that could easily turn into catastrophic losses - which is what happened: the crisis year destroyed all the fund's income and put The university is under attack.

If a thing is fragile, it doesn't matter what you do to make it better or "more efficient" as long as the risk of the thing dying remains. First, you need to reduce the risk of disaster. As Publilius Syrus said, there is nothing that can be done both hastily and well—almost nothing.

Regarding GDP (gross internal product), it can be achieved very easily - at the expense of the debt of future generations, but the economy of the future may collapse due to the need to pay off this debt. GDP growth, like cholesterol, is an example of how the Procrustean bed shortens us. If there is a high probability that the plane will crash, the concept of “speed” ceases to be significant: we know that the plane risks not reaching its destination. Likewise, growth in a fragile economy cannot be called growth. It's a pity that the authorities don't understand this. Meanwhile, during the golden years of the Industrial Revolution, the era that made Europe the dominant region, economic growth was very modest, amounting to less than one percent per year. But the economy was not fragile - unlike the current race of idiots, in which countries behave like teenagers driving, drunk on speed.

Seneca bar

Hence the solution in the form of a barbell. Almost all solutions to problems involving uncertainty take the form of a barbell.

What do we mean by barbell? The barbell (a metal rod with discs on both ends, used by weightlifters) is intended to illustrate the idea of ​​combining separated extremes and moving away from the middle. In our context, the barbell is not always symmetrical: it simply consists of two extremes, with nothing in between. From the point of view of a specialist, it is more correct to call what we are talking about a two-level strategy, because it works not on one (main), but on two levels at once.

I originally used the image of a barbell to describe the dual action of taking a lot of risk in some areas (immune to negative Black Swans) and little in others (exposed to positive Black Swans) that creates antifragility. In other words, we avoid risk in every possible way on the one hand and accept risk in every possible way on the other, and do not practice “average” or bastard “moderate” risk, which is essentially a scam (this moderate risk may be subject to large measurement errors) . As a result, the rod, due to its design, reduces the risk of loss, and the risk of disaster is reduced to zero.

Let us give an example from the sphere of vulgar finance, which is the easiest way to explain the essence of the matter, although for some reason most people do not understand this example. If you put 90 percent of your funds in boring cash (assuming you're protected from inflation) or something like a "store of value" and 10 percent in very risky, maximum risk securities, you can't lose more than 10 percent funds, while your income may be large. Meanwhile, investing all your funds in securities with the so-called “medium risk” is fraught with disaster, because the risk may be calculated incorrectly. The barbell strategy addresses the problem of rare events whose probability is indeterminable and fragility with respect to estimation errors; When using a financial bar, the maximum losses are known.

Antifragility is a combination of aggressiveness and paranoia: limit losses, ensure protection against extreme risk - and the gains, positive Black Swans, will take care of themselves. This is the Seneca asymmetry: we gain more and lose less when we simply reduce the big losses (emotional damage) rather than improve the situation “in the middle.”

Any dual strategy that combines extremes without spoiling the whole thing in the middle can become a barbell - one way or another, the result of such a strategy is a favorable asymmetry.

To understand the difference between barbells and non-barbells, consider restaurants that serve a main course such as sustainably sourced steak and salad (with Malbec wine), and after you've finished with the meat, goat cheese pie (and Muscat wine to go with it). Suddenly, restaurants stop fulfilling your order, cutting the pie and steak into small pieces and mixing it all in very noisy machines. All actions in the “average” sphere are precisely this kind of mixing. Remember Niro from Chapter 9, who communicates with watchmen and scientists, and very rarely with people of average intelligence.

When it comes to risk, I won't board a plane if the crew is "moderately optimistic" about the success of the flight; I would prefer a flight where the flight attendants are as optimistic as possible and the pilot as pessimistic as possible, or even better if he is paranoid.

Accountant and rock star

Biological systems are replete with barbell strategies. Take the following approach to finding a partner, which can be called "90 percent accountant, 10 percent rockstar." (I'm giving an example, not condoning cheating.) In the animal kingdom, females of some monogamous species (including humans) tend to marry accountants and the like, and even more colorless individuals like economists - stable males who able to provide for a family. At the same time, females sometimes cheat on them with aggressive alpha males, rock stars, and this is part of a dual strategy. While limiting losses, females at the same time engage in extramarital mating in order to obtain genetic benefits, or great pleasure, or both. They even choose the time for infidelity not by chance - it coincides with periods when females are most likely to become pregnant. We observe this strategy in so-called monogamous birds: they indulge in infidelity so often that more than ten percent of the chicks are not born from the intended father. There are many theories explaining this phenomenon. Evolutionary theorists argue that females crave not only social and economic stability, but also good genes for their children. However, finding someone “in the middle” who combines all these virtues is impossible (alpha males are good in terms of the gene pool, but are not capable of stable relationships, and vice versa). Why not have both at once, albeit from different males? Quiet life and good genes. There is an alternative theory: females are chasing pleasure - or a quiet life and entertainment It's obvious that this is a barbell strategy, even if it's unclear which explanation is correct: evolutionary theorists love to talk, but I prefer chatter real facts. We do not know whether the extramarital mating strategy is useful for adaptation to the environment. Therefore, the “accountant plus betrayal” barbell may not be aimed at improving the appearance; perhaps this strategy is used for the sake of pleasure with little risk..

Let's also remember overcompensation, which was discussed in Chapter 2: for it to work, it needs incentives - damage and stressors. This means that children should be allowed to play with matches a little and get burned a little so that in the future they will be able to handle fire.

This also means that people must experience some (not too much) stress in order to awaken to activity. At the same time, they must be protected from disasters. Ignore minor dangers and invest energy in protecting yourself from major harm. Only the essential is worthy of your efforts. The same should be done in the field of social policy, and in the field of health care, and in many other areas.

Similar ideas can be found in the heritage of our ancestors - the same thing is explained by the Yiddish proverb: “Take care that the worst does not happen, and the best will take care of itself.” This wisdom seems banal, but it is not: think about how many people are accustomed to caring for the best in the hope that the worst will not happen on its own. We see everywhere that people abhor small losses and ignore (and underestimate) the monstrous Black Swans: we usually insure against small and probable losses, not against large and rare ones. That is, we do everything the other way around.

Away from the Golden Mean

Let's continue to study barbells. There are many areas of life in which the middle is by no means “golden”; It is in these areas that a two-level strategy (maximum security plus maximum risk) is applicable.

Take the profession of a writer - the most uncompromising, the most risky, the most demanding of professions, based more than others on speculative constructions. In France and other European countries, writers have a tradition of looking for a sinecure - say, a quiet position as an official with guaranteed employment, from which no special intellectual effort is required; an activity without any particular risks, which is forgotten as soon as you leave the office, so you can devote your free time to writing and write whatever your heart desires, following only your own rules and standards. Among French writers there are surprisingly few scientists. On the contrary, American writers are often scientists or journalists, which makes them prisoners of the system and spoils their books; People of science, living under constant pressure and stress, perceive the world in a very distorted way. Every line you write according to the standards imposed on you, for example, about prostitution, kills a certain segment of your soul. On the other hand, the combination of sinecure and writing is a pleasant model, almost as good as financial independence, or even better. The great French poets Paul Claudel and Saint-John Perse and the novelist Stendhal were diplomats; many English writers were officials (Trollope served in the post office); Franz Kafka worked for an insurance company. But Spinoza surpassed everyone - he made magnifying glasses, thanks to which his philosophy was completely protected from damage by the scientific establishment. In my adolescence I thought about becoming a writer or philosopher, entering, like many relatives, into the calm, pleasant, serene diplomatic service. The Ottoman Empire had a tradition of using Orthodox Christians as emissaries and ambassadors, even foreign ministers, and this tradition was adopted in Lebanon (my grandfather and great-grandfather were foreign ministers). However, I feared that the Christian minority would be persecuted, and I was right. I ended up becoming a trader and writing in my free time - and, as the reader can see, I write what I want. The businessman-scientist angle was ideal; at three or four o'clock in the afternoon, when I left the office, my work ceased to exist until the next morning, and I was free to do what I considered more valuable and interesting. Having tried to enter the scientific establishment, I felt like I was in prison: I was forced to follow other people's programs, the main goal of which was self-promotion.

You can alternate professions: something very safe, then something adventurous. My friend has had a wonderful career as an editor in the book business and has built an excellent reputation for himself. About ten years later, he broke with the publishing world and plunged into something very risky. This is a real pushover in every sense of the word: if a risky business doesn’t work out, or if it works out but doesn’t bring the expected satisfaction, he can always return to his previous profession. This is why my choice is Seneca: he first led a very active life as an adventurer, after which he retired to write and reflect, rather than being content with a “middle” combination of the two lifestyles. Many men of action subsequently became thinkers, like Montaigne, whose “bar” was an alternation of activities: from pure action to pure reflection.

If I have to work, I find it preferable (and less painful) to work intensively a short time, and do nothing for the rest of the day (literally) until I regain my strength and want to repeat the cycle. I like this better than the long, tedious, sluggish Japanese-style office routine (with a break for sleep). The main course and dessert must be served separately.

Incidentally, Georges Simenon, one of the most prolific writers of the 20th century, wrote only 60 days a year and “did nothing” the rest of the time. He published more than two hundred books.

Domesticating uncertainty

Before the end of this book we will see many more bars with similar asymmetries, which, when risk arises, protect against chance and help to tame antifragility. What is characteristic is that all these rods are similar to each other.

Let's see how things are going in various fields life. If we talk about personal risk, you can easily protect yourself with such a barbell and reduce the chances of failure to zero. My attitude towards risk ranges from paranoia to aggression depending on what it's about. we're talking about. The rules are: no cigarettes, no sugar (especially fructose), no motorcycles, no bicycles within the city, or rather, everywhere except in areas without transport like the Sahara, no talking with Eastern European mafiosi, no airplanes flown by non-professionals (except nearby a professional pilot sits with them). Otherwise, I can accept any professional or personal risk, especially if it does not involve the risk of fatal injury.

In social policy, the barbell's strategy is to protect the very weak and let the strong do their job, rather than help the middle class consolidate privilege by blocking evolution and creating all sorts of economic problems, which hit the poor the hardest.

Before Great Britain became a bureaucratic state, it used a barbell strategy: the country was driven by adventurers (traditional and economic) and aristocrats. The role of the aristocracy was largely one of discretion, while adventurers traveled the planet in search of trading opportunities or stayed home and tinkered with technology. Now London is inhabited by bohemian bourgeois who receive gigantic annual bonuses.

My approach to writing can be described as follows: I write, on the one hand, literary essays that everyone can understand, on the other, articles for specialists, and nothing “in between” - no articles for newspapers, no columns, not even interviews (if only the publisher does not require this).

The reader may also recall the physical exercise regimen from Chapter 2: in the first stage you lift maximum weights, in the second you do nothing. An alternative regimen is less intense but longer sessions at the gym. If you add effortless long walks to the first mode, you get the same barbell.

More about barbells. Do crazy things (sometimes break furniture) like the drunken Greeks did near the end of their philosophical feasts and symposiums, and remain “rational” when it comes to important decisions. Penny yellow magazines and classics mixed with scientific works; Don't read "middle-level" books. Talk either to schoolchildren, taxi drivers and gardeners, or to world-famous scientists; never talk to scientists who haven't done anything special but care about their careers. If you don't like someone, leave them alone or cut them out of your life; don't even think about insulting him in a word On finances: in 2008, I advocated that the state nationalize banks, rather than helping them financially and not engaging in other adventures for which taxpayers paid. Nobody understood my barbell idea - some hated me for being a libertarian, others for the idea of ​​nationalization. Why? Because half measures - in this case, regulation of both the economy as a whole and the collapsing banking system - do not work, and any legal tricks are powerless here. Hedge funds should be deregulated and banks should be nationalized, and this barbell is better than the current horror..

To reiterate: with respect to randomness, the barbell strategy leads to the acquisition of antifragility by reducing fragility and limiting the risk of loss and loss; disasters are not so scary for us, and at the same time we benefit from potential income.

Returning to finance, the barbell does not necessarily have to take the form of investing in inflation-protected cash on the one hand and risky securities on the other. A barbell is everything that reduces the risk of bankruptcy to zero. Legendary investor Ray Dalio has a rule for those who play the stock market: “Make sure that the probability of an unacceptable outcome (the risk of bankruptcy) is zero.” This rule leads us straight to strategy. rods Once again we see dependence on context. People view home insurance as a necessity rather than part of a financial strategy, but when it comes to their stock portfolio, they view the situation differently because of the way securities described in the media. Many people believe that my barbell idea is a strategy that needs to be tested for potential return on investment. The point is different. The barbell insures survival; it is not a possibility, but a necessity..

Another idea from Rory Sutherland: In the UK, patients suffering from minor alcohol-related illnesses are advised to limit themselves to a certain number of grams per day. In this case, the optimal solution is to avoid alcohol three days a week (that is, give the liver a long rest), and drink as much as you want the remaining four days. The mathematical justification for this and other barbell strategies will be given later in the discussion of Jensen's inequality.

Most of the things and phenomena in the right column of the Triad are related to the idea of ​​a barbell - this necessary condition, but not enough.

Stoicism is the domestication, not the elimination, of emotions; the barbell is about domestication, not about eliminating uncertainty.

2012 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb N. Karaev, translation, 2013 E. Savchenko, design, 2013 Azbuka-Atticus Publishing Group LLC, 2013 CoLibri

Nassim Nicholas Taleb was born in 1960, in the Lebanese city of Amiun. His family professed Orthodoxy. During the civil war that began in 1975, they were deported. Nassim Nicholas's father, Dr. Taleb, was an oncologist and engaged in anthropological research. Among his ancestors are politicians who represented the interests of the Orthodox community in Lebanon. So his maternal grandfather and great-grandfather were deputy prime ministers of Lebanon, his paternal grandfather served as chief judge, and back in 1861 his great-great-great-great-grandfather served as governor of the semi-autonomous Ottoman province of Mount Lebanon. Taleb held senior positions in brokerage firms in London and New York, and also worked on the stock exchange before founding own company hedge fund "Empirica LL-S" ( futures transactions and selling options). He received a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from the Wharton School and completed his PhD at the University of Paris.

Taleb speaks about ten languages. Fluent in English, French and literary Arabic, speaks Italian and Spanish, reads ancient Greek, Latin and Aramaic and Canaanite. He came up with the idea of ​​creating the Silvercrest-Longchamp NonGaussian Fund.

Positions:

1. Executive Director and Chief Trader at Union Bank of Switzerland.
2. Head Trader (Derivatives) at CS-First Boston, Banque Indosuez.
3. Executive Director CIBC-Wood Gundy.
4. Arbitrage trader at BNP-Paribas.
5. Independent market maker at Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
6. Member of the editorial board and scientific committee: U.S. Secretary of Defense’s Cross-Disciplinary Highland Panel, CISDM Center U. Mass Amherst, Journal of Alternative Investments, Warsaw Institute of Psychology, Universite Paris-Dauphine DESS 203.
7. Member of the Board of Directors: Silvercrest-Longchamp NonGaussian Fund, BVI, Centaurus Capital LP Alpha Fund, Centaurus Kappa Fund.

Taleb is known for his skeptical and anti-mathematical approach to risk and uncertainty, his distrust of models and statistics, and his open dislike of academic financiers.

Half of humanity lies with the tongue, the other half with tears.

Taleb considers himself not a trader, but an epistomologist. For him stock speculation– a way to achieve independence and freedom.

Calling yourself "skeptical empiricist", he believes that scientists, economists, historians, politicians, businessmen and financiers overestimate the possibilities of rational interpretations of statistics and underestimate the influence of unexplained randomness in these statistics. Thus, Taleb continues the long tradition of skepticism professed by Sextus Empiricus, Al-Ghazali, Pierre Boyle, Montaigne and David Hume, who believed that the past does not allow us to predict the future. Taleb is a follower of Karl Popper and argues that theories cannot be considered proven and can only be used conditionally.

Taleb the philosopher

Currently, Taleb is engaged in research in the field of philosophy of chance and the role of uncertainty in society and science, with an emphasis on the philosophy of history and the study of the role of important accidents (he calls them "black swans") in determining the course of history. It's important to note that "black swans" These are not necessarily negative events or disasters, but also random luck. In his opinion, people do not notice these events, considering the world to be a systematized, understandable and ordinary structure.

Taleb calls this phenomenon "Platonic Delusion" and believes that it gives rise to three distortions:

1. Narrative Fallacy: An event is described after the fact in such a way that it does not appear to have occurred without cause.
2. Gambler's fallacy: comparing the randomness system of a game to the unsystematic randomness of life. Taleb considers this a mistake in the modern approach to probability theory.
3. The inverse statistics fallacy: the belief that events in the future are predictable by studying events in the past.

Accident is a reflection of mainly external, insignificant, unstable, single connections of reality; expression of the starting point of cognition of an object; the result of the intersection of independent causal processes and events; form of manifestation of necessity and addition to it.

Ludic fallacy is defined as "abuse of games to simulate real situations". Taleb characterizes delusion as the concept of a map (model) for reality, showing the side effects of human cognition.

The principle is one of the main arguments in the book and a refutation of predictive mathematical models used to predict the future - as well as an attack on the ideas of applying a naive and simplified statistical model to complex areas. According to Taleb, statistics only work in some areas, such as a casino, where the odds are visible and defined.

A good enemy is much more loyal, predictable and (for an intelligent person) more useful than the most devoted admirer

In 2006's Black Swan, Taleb wrote: “Globalization has created interconnected fragility by reducing volatility and creating the appearance of stability. In other words, she creates Black Swans. We have never lived under the threat of global collapse before. Financial institutions merge into fewer and fewer very large banks. All banks are interconnected. The financial biosphere is being eaten up by giant, incestuous, bureaucratic banks, and when one of them falls, they all fall. Increasing concentration of capital in the banking environment seems to make financial crises less likely, but when they do occur, they are more global and hit us harder.".

Taleb's predictions turned out to be justified. He reportedly made several million dollars during financial crisis in 2007-2008, which he attributes to the use of statistical methods in finance. According to Bloomberg, his Black Swan made investors half a billion dollars. Financial success Taleb in combination with previous forecasts contributed to its popularity and promotion.

In an article in The Times, Bryan Appleyard called Taleb "the most outstanding this moment thinker in the world". Laureate Nobel Prize Daniel Kahneman proposed to include Taleb's name in the list of the best representatives of the intelligentsia, with reference “Taleb changed the way many people think about uncertainty, especially in financial markets. His book, Black Swan, is an interesting and courageous analysis of how people try to make sense of unexpected events.". Therefore, reviews of Nassim Nicholas Taleb are positive.

Books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

• Dynamic hedging.

We also offer you to watch one of the many video interviews with Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Fooled by chance

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a scientist known throughout the world as the creator of the Black Swan theory. Mathematician, trader, financial guru, professor at the University of Massachusetts. Author of the best-selling books “The Black Swan”, “Fooled by Randomness” and many scientific articles on economics and finance.

He was a leading analyst on the London and New York stock exchanges. Later he founded his own hedge fund. All his life, Nassim has been studying the phenomena of luck, chance and chance, calling himself an “empirical skeptic.” It looks at how random events have affected the global economy.

Nassim is confident that the significance of forecasts and statistics is greatly exaggerated. He calls events that are difficult to predict Black Swans. According to his theory, almost all important events in history are Black Swans. Examples of “black swans” of the last century: the development of the Internet, the First World War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001. Nassim notes that humanity is unable to make successful predictions about its future. He believes that the world is created as we know it by inexplicable accidents.

In 2006, in his book “The Black Swan,” Taleb warned that an imminent financial collapse. His predictions turned out to be justified. According to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the warning helped investors make half a billion dollars.

Dear reader!

We are pleased to welcome you to the pages of our portal - a free library of business, specialized and fiction literature. We created this site specifically for those who cannot imagine their life without a book, for those who want to effortlessly choose literature to their liking. Do you want to immerse yourself in the fascinating world of a detective story or enjoy poetry, re-read some of the good old classics or appreciate some of the modern authors? All this and much more you can find on the pages of our website.

Despite the fact that traditional publications still have many loyal fans who especially appreciate the opportunity to smell fresh printing ink and rustle the pages, their popularity e-books and reading from a computer monitor, mobile phone or tablet is growing every day. This is quite understandable, because the advantages that a free online library has are obvious: the reader does not need to find time to go to the library or bookstore, does not need to sit in the reading room, and most importantly, there is no need to spend money on buying new books.

Reading a good work can be compared to a leisurely walk through completely unfamiliar picturesque surroundings or tasting a professionally prepared dish. Now, in order to find a piece of art that will brighten up a weekday evening or a weekend day, you don’t need to leave your apartment - you just need to have a computer and an Internet connection at hand. Using our library, you will have the opportunity to read books online on any topic that interests you, because we have a huge collection of modern prose, classical works, lyrics and specialized literature.

Our free online library is not going to stop there. We plan to regularly replenish the collection of books to delight our readers the latest works modern authors and undeservedly forgotten creations of classics. We hope that our portal will become a favorite place to search for literary novelties and long-loved publications.

Reading an interesting book takes us on a fascinating journey through the world of emotions and feelings; we intensely follow all the twists and turns of the plot and empathize with our favorite characters. The online library is a great opportunity not to part with such emotions at any time and anywhere. You can access our website from any mobile device and avoid wasting precious minutes while standing in queues or traveling on public transport. In addition, to read books from our library for free, you don’t even need to register. Just select the section you are interested in, then select the author, and the book is at your complete disposal. And by sending links to your favorite works to your friends, you will get the opportunity to discuss online book when meeting them.

We would like to draw the attention of readers that reading books online on our portal is pleasant and convenient - if necessary, you can increase the font size and go to any page, leave bookmarks and make notes. We advise you to quickly choose an interesting book from our library and immerse yourself in a unique world of adventure, because reading books for free is not only profitable, but also pleasant. At the same time, we would like to remind you that the texts of the works posted on our website are for private reference, and their use for commercial purposes is prohibited.

Nassim Taleb is an extraordinary person: he is convinced that the world is ruled by uncertainty, so for most of his life he studied the phenomena of luck, luck, and chance. According to his theory, the significance of forecasts is exaggerated, and all the great events in history - the development of the Internet, the First world war, the collapse of the Soviet Union and so on - it was impossible to predict.

The Guardian named Taleb one of the greatest writers of the 20th century.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Demons”, Fyodor Mikhailovich Dostoevsky

"The Opposing Shore" by Julien Gracq

When I wrote The Black Swan, my favorite book was The Tartarian Desert by Dino Buzzati. This is a special novel, the only one that I am ready to re-read throughout my life.

The Opposite Shore is a remarkably similar story about the pull of expectation (instead of the pull of hope, which is how I characterize Buzzati's book), but written in more elegant language and by a real writer: Buzzati was a journalist, so his prose is more pragmatic. The narrative style of The Opposite Shore is concise and precise, it has texture, rich detail, and a fascinating atmosphere.

Once you start reading, you will fall in love with this novel. While reading it, I never tired of repeating: “This is a book.”

"Experiments", Michel de Montaigne

Montaigne is more of a conversationalist than a teacher. Until recently, he had a bad reputation in scientific circles because he did not have an advanced degree: he was an ordinary person with limited knowledge but great intellectual hunger. Therefore, his book is the perfect portal to the classics. She's like a guide. I never travel without a volume of Experiences if I have a feeling that I will be stuck at the airport.

"Fictional Stories" by Jorge Luis Borges

This is very difficult to find by definition: a literary author who thinks in abstract categories (another such author I have read is Stanislaw Lem). These are philosophical in their purest form, which were somehow magically given a playful literary form.

Borges is a mathematical philosopher, the first and the last. Ignore his attitude towards Latin American literature and nonsense about his origins and personal life. One must resist attempts to integrate him into the sociocultural environment: Borges is as unique as possible. In his short stories literature and philosophy are combined in a parable.

"The History of Private Life", volumes 1–5

The Annales school's approach to understanding history was based on prosaic everyday life, far removed from sensational historical events: who ruled, what coup took place, what the war or geopolitical situation was like. Representatives of this historical movement were not interested in events that seem to be scientific topics, but in fact are the object of journalism.

The methodology of the Annals is largely statistical, as this school examines a series of reliable facts, rather than biographies of historical figures or records of wars (as if, when studying our time, scientists focused on diabetes and traffic jams, rather than on sensational shark attacks and plane crashes).

Instead of learning Roman history from Caesar's biography or the events of Pompeii, you can learn about everyday life, laws and customs. For the past 25 years I have been reading and re-reading these five volumes.