Nominal GDP is less than real GDP. Real gross domestic product

Table 3.

GDP indicator does not give an accurate idea of ​​the volume of products produced during the year, because It includes, along with final goods and services, depreciation charges necessary to reimburse consumed capital (worn-out machinery and equipment). Therefore, the economy uses the net domestic product (NDP) indicator, which is determined by subtracting the amount from GDP depreciation charges in a year.

The price index is the ratio of the market basket price in a given year to the market basket price in the base year multiplied by 100%.

If the price index is greater than one or greater than 100%, then inflation has occurred.

If the price index is less than one or less than 100%, then there is deflation, a decrease in prices.

If the price index is equal to one or 100%, then prices have not changed.

Real GDP = Nominal GDP / Price Index,% x 100%.

Real GDP shows the market value of each year's output, measured in constant prices.

Deflation- negative inflation - a decrease in the general price level due to a decrease in money supply in circulation by withdrawing part of what is surplus compared to needs money circulation paper money. Deflation is a rare occurrence.

GDP is important economic indicator, which gives a general idea of ​​the dynamics economic development, about the state of the economy as a whole, allows you to compare economic potentials different countries for certain periods of time. But to create an objective picture of the well-being of the population of one or another countries GDP It is customary to correlate it with population, calculating the volume of gross domestic product or national income per capita.

GDP per capita = GDP/population

If GDP grows faster than population, then welfare increases, and vice versa.

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Nominal and real gross domestic product

Macroeconomic indicators are calculated in monetary terms, so their value depends on price dynamics, purchasing power monetary unit. Consequently, an increase or decrease in the price level affects the value of GDP, GNP and income. Therefore, a distinction is made between nominal and real GDP.

Nominal GDP – volume of national production in prices of the current period, i.e. at the time of production of this volume of goods and services.

Real GDP – GDP indicator adjusted for changes in the price level (inflation or deflation); measured in base year prices.

Thus, real GDP measures the total market value of goods and services at constant (unchanged) prices, it is “cleared” of the influence of inflation. To determine the value of real output, it is necessary to make an adjustment to nominal GDP. To determine the volume of production, you need to know the price level, which is expressed as an index. The most common index consumer prices(CPI) and GDP deflator.

Consumer price index - the relationship between the total price of a certain set of goods and services (market basket) for a given time period and the total price of a similar group of goods and services in the base period:

For example, if the value of the market basket in 1999 was $64, and in 1998 it was $50, then

Price index 1999 = 100 = 128%.

In Russia, when calculating the consumer price index, monitoring is carried out for 122 groups of goods and services, including 57 food, 40 non-food and 25 types paid services. In the United States, the Consumer Price Index includes the prices of 300 consumer goods and services and shows shifts in the prices of this market basket purchased by urban consumers.

The change in the general price level in the country shows GDP deflator(weighted average index of prices for goods and services that form GDP), which can be considered a general inflation index. It can be determined by the formula

The GDP deflator reflects the dynamics of prices not only for consumer goods and services, but also prices for goods industrial purposes, purchased by the government, the prices of goods and services bought and sold on the world market. Therefore, the GDP deflator is an adjustment to the monetary one, i.e. nominal, GDP taking into account price changes.

Using the GDP price index, you can compare the price of output of each year under study with the price of output at prices prevailing in the base year to determine the dynamics of economic development. A set of price indices for different years allows us to identify price increases or decreases:

Real GDP is a more accurate measure of economic development because it is free from the effects of inflation or deflation and reflects only changes in output.

The role of macroeconomic indicators is extremely important. By analyzing the values ​​of these indicators and their dynamics over a number of years, economists draw conclusions about the real economic situation in the country and the level of well-being of the population.

So, if in 1999 nominal GDP was equal to 5600 billion dollars, and the price index was 137%, then GDP in 1999 prices can be calculated as follows:

GDPreal. = 5600 / 1.37 = 4088 billion dollars.

In this case, we deflated the GDP value, since inflation was observed in the past period; prices increased by 37% compared to the base year. Real GDP gives a more accurate description national economy.

The main difference between the GDP deflator and the CPI is that when calculating GDP index The composition of the market basket changes from year to year, but in the consumer price index it is fixed at the base year level. To a certain extent, the CPI is a conditional indicator, since it has significant shortcomings. Firstly, in real life consumers change the composition of the market basket: an increase in prices for some goods leads to their replacement with other, cheaper goods, as a result of which the market basket will include more cheap goods and fewer expensive ones. Secondly, the CPI does not take into account changes in the quality of goods (and therefore increases in prices for them), since it assumes that the increase in the cost of living is associated only with inflation. Thus, the consumer price index overestimates the inflation rate.

How to find out how well and productively the country's economy copes with its tasks? Is it possible to calculate its activities over a certain period of time? Of course it's possible. Macroeconomics uses the value (abbreviated as GDP) for this purpose.

GDP is the sum market values services and goods intended for final use and manufactured over a certain period of time in the territory of a given country. There is nominal as well as real GDP. Let's take a closer look at these important definitions.

Nominal GDP is an indicator that measures the value of total output at prices of the period considered in the calculations. It changes every year. There are two reasons for this. First, services and goods are changing. Secondly, the total physical volume of output is also growing or, conversely, falling. For example, during this period, prices for all categories of services and goods doubled. Consequently, nominal GDP also doubled, but this does not mean that the economy functioned better and more efficiently during this period of time. In order to separate changes in GDP that occurred due to price increases and decreases from changes in GDP that are directly dependent on output, real GDP was introduced. In order to find this value, you need to do some calculations.

Real GDP is an indicator that measures the physical volume of services and goods produced in different time periods by estimating all products produced in both periods at constant prices. That is, the calculation of the GDP in question allows us not to take inflation into account.

Real GDP helps us understand how much the economy has improved or worsened. economic situation in a year. For example, it is necessary to compare GDP volumes for 2011 and 2012. To do this, you need to multiply the volume of all goods and services produced for each year by their prices in 2011. This approach allows you to see the actual growth of manufactured products.

It is possible to calculate real GDP in another way. To do this, you need to divide nominal GDP by the value or GDP price index. Here you will need additional calculations. The GDP deflator is an analogue of the CPI. It allows you to find out changes in the cost of products included in GDP. Calculating the deflator requires selecting a certain range of services and goods. The set includes, in addition to the cost of goods purchased by the government, products traded on the world market, and investment goods. The GDP deflator, unlike the CPI, is based on the current structure of production. It is worth noting that deflators from different years cannot be compared, since they reflect different sets of goods.

That is, in another way we can say that real GDP is GDP “cleaned” from the impact of change. Let's give an example. The inflation rate was 15%, and nominal GDP increased by 20%. This means that real GDP grew by 5%. It is worth noting that used in in this example the formula can only be used at low rates of change, that is, at low levels of inflation.

Let's take a closer look at the main points that need to be kept in mind when calculating GDP. Products intended for end use must be taken into account. That is, intermediate goods do not appear in the calculations. For example, when including the cost of a car in the GDP calculation, there is no need to separately count the price of its wheels.

When calculating GDP, services and goods produced during the time period under consideration are taken into account. GDP is at market prices. GDP includes only those services and goods that are produced on the territory of a given country.

All main indicators in the system of national accounts reflect the results economic activity per year, i.e. are expressed in prices of a given year (current prices) and are therefore nominal. Nominal indicators do not allow for both cross-country comparisons and comparisons of the level of economic development of the same country in different periods of time. Such comparisons can only be made using real indicators (indicators of real production volume and real level of income), which are expressed in constant (comparable) prices. Therefore, it is important to distinguish between nominal and real (cleared of the influence of changes in the price level) indicators.

Nominal GDP is GDP calculated at current prices, in prices of a given year. The value of nominal GDP is influenced by two factors:

change in real output

change in price level.

To measure real GDP, it is necessary to “cleanse” nominal GNP of the effects of changes in the price level.

Real GDP is GDP measured in comparable (constant) prices, in base year prices. In this case, any year can be chosen as the base year, chronologically both earlier and later than the current one. The latter is used for historical comparisons (for example, to calculate real GDP in 1980 in 1999 prices. In this case, 1999 will be the base year and 1980 will be the current year).

The general price level is calculated using a price index. Obviously, in the base year, nominal GDP is equal to real GDP, and the price index is equal to 100% or 1.

Nominal GDP of any year, as calculated at current prices, is equal to p t q t , and real GDP, calculated at base year prices, is equal to p 0 q t . Both nominal and real GDP are calculated in monetary units(in rubles, dollars, etc.).

For example, if nominal GDP grew by 15% and the inflation rate was 10%, then real GDP grew by 5%. (However, it should be borne in mind that this formula is applicable only at low rates of change and, first of all, at very small changes in the general price level, i.e. at low inflation. When solving problems, it is more correct to use the formula for the ratio of nominal and real GDP in general form.)

There are several types of price indices: 1) consumer price index; 2) producer price index; 3) GNP deflator, etc.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated based on the value of a market basket of goods, which includes the set of goods and services consumed by a typical urban family during the year. (IN developed countries consumer basket includes 300-400 types of consumer goods and services). The Producer Price Index (PPI) is calculated as the cost of a basket of capital goods (intermediate products) and includes, for example, 3,200 items in the United States. Both the CPI and the PPI are statistically calculated as indices with weights (volumes) of the base year, i.e. as the Laspeyres index:

CPI = I L = (p t q 0 p 0 q 0) 100%

The GDP deflator is calculated based on the value of a basket of final goods and services produced in the economy during the year. Statistically, the GDP deflator acts as the Paasche index, i.e. index with weights (volumes) of the current year:

def GDP = (p t q t /p 0 q t) 100%

As a rule, the CPI (if the set of goods included in the consumer market basket is large enough) and the GDP deflator are used to determine the general price level and inflation rate.

The differences between the CPI and the GDP deflator, in addition to the fact that different weights are used in their calculation (base year for the CPI and the current year for the GDP deflator), are as follows:

The CPI is calculated based only on the prices of goods included in the consumer basket, while the GDP deflator takes into account all goods produced by the economy;

when calculating the CPI, imported consumer goods are also taken into account, and when determining the GDP deflator, only goods produced by the national economy;

Both the GDP deflator and the CPI can be used to determine the general price level and inflation rate, but the CPI also serves as the basis for calculating the rate of change in the cost of living and the “poverty line” and developing social security programs based on them;

The CPI overestimates the general price level and the level of inflation, while the GDP deflator underestimates these indicators. This happens for two reasons:

• a) The CPI underestimates structural shifts in consumption (the effect of substitution of relatively more expensive goods with relatively cheaper ones), since it is calculated based on the structure of the base year consumer basket, i.e. attributes the consumption pattern of the base year to the current year (for example, if by given year oranges have become relatively more expensive, then consumers will increase the demand for tangerines, and the structure of the consumer basket will change - the share (weight) of oranges in it will decrease, and the share (weight) of tangerines will increase. Meanwhile, this change will not be taken into account when calculating the CPI, and the current year will be assigned the weight (the number of kilograms of relatively more expensive oranges and relatively cheaper tangerines consumed per year) of the base year, and the cost of the consumer basket will be artificially inflated. The GNP deflator overestimates structural changes in consumption (substitution effect), assigning the weights of the current year to the base year;
• b) The CPI ignores changes in the prices of goods due to changes in their quality (an increase in prices for goods is considered as if in itself, and does not take into account that a higher price for a product may be associated with a change in its quality. Obviously, the price of an iron with a vertical ironing is higher than the price of a regular iron, but in the consumer basket this product appears as simply an “iron”). Meanwhile, the GDP deflator overestimates this fact and underestimates the inflation rate.

Due to the fact that both indices have shortcomings and cannot accurately reflect changes in the general price level, the so-called “ideal” Fisher index can be used, which removes these shortcomings and represents the geometric mean of the Paasche index and Laspeyres index:

The Fisher index is used to more accurately calculate the growth rate of the general price level, i.e. inflation rate. Depending on whether the general price level (P - pricelevel) (usually determined using a deflator) has increased or decreased over the period of time from the base year to the current year, nominal GDP can be either more or less than real GDP. If during this period the general price level increased, i.e. GDP deflator > 1, then real GNP will be less than nominal. If, for the period from the base year to current level prices decreased, i.e. GDP deflator< 1, то реальный ВВП будет больше номинального.

How to calculate GDP? If the calculation is made in current prices, the physical volume of production may be distorted. Let's say that GDP at current prices increased over the year from 1 trillion. dollars up to 2 trillion. dollars. What does this mean? An increase in the number of goods and services produced by 2 times or an increase in the general price level by the same amount, without any real economic growth? Or both to a certain extent at the same time? The answer to this question is given by the difference in the concepts of nominal and real GDP. Nominal GDP is GDP calculated at current prices. In macroeconomic theory, it is denoted by the symbol PQ, where P means the price index and Q is the physical volume of production. But how to determine the physical volume of production? To do this, it is necessary to perform the following procedure: establish the so-called base year and calculate in its prices the amount produced in this year GDP. For example, all goods and services produced in 2006 are calculated in 2003 prices. In industrialized countries, a new base year is determined every 10-15 years. It would be wrong to compare the physical volumes of GDP in 2006 and the years preceding it, using prices for goods and services over many decades, for example, 1913, chosen as the base year. Indeed, in those Distant times, those goods and services that are familiar to us now simply did not exist - televisions, computers, cell phones, Internet services, many medications, etc., and therefore there were no prices for these goods. So, real GDP is the actual volume of output calculated in base year prices. The GDP indicator at basic prices may grow less or more over the course of a year than GDP at current prices. And this happens due to changes in the general price level in the country. Thus, to calculate real GDP you need to use a price index, or deflator.

Nominal GDP(PQ)
GDP Deflator = Real GDP(Q)

The GDP deflator measures the intensity of inflation or the reverse process - deflation (a decrease in the general price level in the country). If the value of the price index turned out to be greater than 1, then we deflated GDP, i.e. eliminated the inflation factor. If the price index turned out to be less than 1, then we carried out inflation, i.e., we cleared nominal GDP of the influence of deflation. For Russia, for example, the GDP deflator in 1996 compared to 1990 was 5929. This indicator can also be presented as a percentage. Thus, the GDP deflator for 2005 in relation to 2004 prices in our country amounted to 119.7%.

Because the GDP deflator is based on calculations that take into account all goods and services produced in a country, it is a comprehensive price index useful for measuring the absolute price level. It should be emphasized here that macroeconomic theory uses various price indices to calculate real GDP. In addition to the GDP deflator, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are used, measuring the level of wholesale prices. In this case, both fixed sets of goods (the so-called “consumer basket”) and changing ones can be used as price weights. In this regard, it is worth highlighting the Laspeyres, Paasche and Fischer price indices.

It is an index where a constant set of goods is presented as price weights (a “consumer basket” that is unchanged in its composition).

where q0i is the number of goods and services produced in the base year,
p0i" - prices of goods and services in the base year,
p1i - prices of goods in the current year. The summation is made over all goods and services included in the set.

Price index, where the quantities of goods and services produced in the current year are taken as price weights:

where р1i > is the number of goods and services in the current year

The GDP deflator, which we discussed earlier, is the Paasche index.
These indices are widely used to measure living standards. At the same time, the Laspeyres index is calculated, as we noted, for a constant set of goods, and, therefore, it does not take into account the replacement of expensive products with cheap ones. On the contrary, the Paasche index reflects the possibility of mutual substitution of goods. Widely used in Lately also finds , which is the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices.

It should be noted differences between the GDP deflator and the CPI calculated as the Laspeyres index. First, the GDP deflator takes into account the prices of all goods and services produced in a country, while the CPI reflects only the prices of goods purchased by households (the “consumer basket”).
Secondly, the GDP deflator does not take into account prices imported goods, which is reflected in the CPI.
Third, the GDP deflator allows for changes in the mix of goods and services in accordance with changes in the composition of GDP. The CPI is calculated, as we have emphasized, for a constant set of goods included in the “consumer basket”.

The System of National Accounts (SNA), introduced in 1993 by the UN International Statistical Service (more about it in the next paragraph), uses the Laspeyres index and the Paasche index. At the same time, when studying price dynamics, preference is given to the Laspeyres index, and for revaluation of indicators in constant prices - to the Paasche index. As for the Fisher index, the 1993 SNA gives priority to it, since, being a geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices, this indicator does not depend on the choice of comparison base and, therefore, is free from the shortcomings inherent in other price indices.

In conclusion, let us recall that Economic theory uses the categories of stock and flow known to us to characterize many indicators not only at the micro, but also at the macro level. Examples of related stocks and flows include the following: stock- the amount of cash at the disposal of the population for a certain period of time, flow-nominal GDP for a certain period of time; stock- the number of unemployed for a certain period of time, flow- the number of people losing their jobs over a period of time. The categories of stocks and flows help to deeply analyze the time aspect of the interaction of the most important macroeconomic indicators.