Inflation rate per year. Inflation rate of the Ministry of Economic Development by years
The last few years can hardly be called simple for the citizens of the Russian Federation: a constant rise in food prices, an increase in tariffs, and the cancellation of several social programs. But, the government convinces us that we should not despair, and the data confirms that today the most difficult times are behind us.
What inflation in 2018 will be, and what the official forecast is prepared by the Ministry of Finance, we will find out in the article.
What to expect for the country next year
Of course, all residents of the country are very worried about what to expect for Russia in 2018, how the economic situation will change, and will life really become easier? The Ministry of Economic Development really pleases with its forecasts. According to independent experts, the inflation index in 2018 will decrease significantly. It is expected to drop to 4%, which will significantly affect the federal budget for 2018.
Such a high estimated inflation rate in Russia has caused a lot of controversy, and not all experts agree with it, and in some respects they are right. After all, if you look at the cost of food products, then their predicted cost differs from the real one by 12%.
Planned inflation for 2018 is calculated based on a baseline that has been in effect for several years. It is based on the cost of oil and the value of the dollar. The given inflation rate for 2018 will be relevant in the Russian Federation only if nothing changes.
But, no one excludes a positive turn, in which the expected oil price will begin to increase, which means the country's welfare will improve, the national currency will strengthen its positions. Of course, well-known experts do not want to talk about such lofty goals, because it is almost impossible to plan such.
In addition, when calculating the inflation rate in Russia in 2018, the sanctions imposed against our country were taken into account. But, most likely, some of them will be removed, which will positively affect the official results.
Why it is important to know the inflation rate
Most of the country's citizens, although they are interested in the level of inflation in Russia, and the economy as a whole, do not fully understand what a big role it is assigned to:
- The level of social payments to the population depends on how much inflation in 2018 will be in percent. Based on the percentage of inflation, economists perform all the necessary calculations, which are then applied to the whole of Russia.
- Based on the inflation rate for 2018, you can tell how well the economy is doing.
- If inflation is low, then, over time, the price of oil will start to rise. At the same time, taxes from its sale go directly to the treasury, this money will cover the deficit, the inflation rate will significantly decrease.
- If inflation in Russia decreases, then the welfare of its citizens will begin to grow, therefore, life will be better.
According to Rosstat, the forecast price for a barrel of oil next year will reach $ 75, which would be an excellent option compared to the current price.
Such revenues to the budget will allow you to quickly reach the planned income level, and will make the life of ordinary citizens much easier.
What the government says
According to the president, the country is already emerging from the economic crisis it is facing. In order to maintain the financial situation of the country's residents, salary indexation was carried out whenever possible.
Today, according to the Ministry of Finance, next year the forecasted inflation rate will be at 4%, this is the expected and forecasted level of the coefficient. This means that the estimated amount of various social benefits will also increase by 4%. So far, the government cannot significantly raise the salaries of its citizens, but the real concern for everyone is visible.
But, according to the Ministry of Finance, there may be an increase in inflation in 2018, this phenomenon is called creeping. They bring their positives:
- Most citizens, by habit, keep the accumulated money at home, hiding it in a secluded place. During the growth of inflation, they begin to fear the depreciation of savings, and donate their capital to the bank. Thus, there is an active stimulation of the banking sector, and a large currency turnover.
- Residents who have a loan are trying not to wait until the planned payment arrives, but to close the debt as quickly as possible in order to take a new acquisition exactly at the moment when it became cheaper.
Through the efforts of the country's government, inflation in Russia amounted to 5.6% in 2017, and in the next will drop to 4%, which undoubtedly indicates a gradual stabilization of the economy in the country and an improvement in its welfare in general.
Based on such optimistic forecasts, we can confidently say that the crisis has subsided, and very soon, life will become much easier for all of us.
Hard times come sooner or later in every country. Rising prices, lower wages, higher unemployment rates, the closure of many social programs and other unpleasant moments have befallen ordinary Russians in recent years. But our compatriots do not lose heart - they continue to believe that the economic crisis will end, and Russia will once again take a leading position in the world community.
As it turned out, all these hopes are already starting to come true. The state is slowly but surely recovering, and inflation forecast for 2018 shows that the most difficult times will be left behind.
The government periodically provides the public with reports that track the stabilization in the foreign exchange market, as well as the revitalization of the banking sector. Many analysts are confident that the country will get out of the economic hole, and numerous reforms will be an additional incentive for this.
What should Russians prepare for in 2018?
Today, this issue is of great concern to all residents of Russia. Despite the fact that every time in the news some information about the economy of the state and about decisions to resume it slips through, our compatriots try to follow the news on the Internet, intending to see encouraging news.
This time, the Ministry of Economic Development has pleased the Russians with an optimistic forecast for 2018. The statements of experts from this department say that next year the inflation growth will noticeably decrease - up to 4%.
Of course, such a positive forecast caused a lot of controversy, because not all analysts agree with such calculations. This mistrust is quite justified, especially if you look at the trend of growth in the cost of food products and services - prices increased by 12%.
It is worth noting that the forecasts were based on the “baseline” inflation scenario for 2018, which was based on the average price of Urals oil and the average annual value of the US currency. The Ministry of Economic Development is confident that this scenario is likely to be realized in the future financial period. Although "optimistic" is not excluded from the types - oil prices will increase, and the national currency will strengthen.
One can only assume how fluctuations in the oil and foreign exchange markets will affect inflation indicators, so Russians are trying not to build castles in the air regarding the country's welfare for the next few years.
We all know the saying "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." It is by this principle that the majority of citizens live, because it is impossible to guarantee a quick disposal of, which has left an indelible mark on many areas of the life of our contemporaries.
In the process of calculating the expected inflation rate in 2018, the experts took into account the sanctions imposed on Russia. Probably, in the future, many of them will be canceled, which will improve the economy of the state as a whole, and within a short period of time.
The truth of the above forecast is added by the fact that the Central Bank is working hard and fruitfully in the direction of reducing inflationary growth. Alas, now it is still difficult to notice the fruits of this activity, because tangible results are expected only next year. Even the unemployment rate is starting to decline gradually. According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, its fall will end at 4.5%.
Inflation forecast for 2017-2020
Believe the official data or not?
We all would like to see a prosperous Russia again in the near future, so most citizens try not to lose heart and believe in better times. All forecasts made by leading experts in the field of economics cannot be considered final.
In addition, experts from the IMF spoil the whole rosy picture, who argue that in the period under review, the economic condition of our state will only worsen: prices will continue to rise, respectively, and the inflation rate will also increase.
Inflation rates: are they really that important?
Why are people interested in inflationary growth or decline indicators at all? You can understand economists: on the basis of these data, they make calculations regarding certain benefits, subsidies, etc. But even an ordinary Russian, thanks to information on inflation rates, will be able to understand how well and efficiently the country's economy is functioning.
A low percentage of inflation will contribute to the fact that the cost of oil will increase, respectively, the amount of taxes from its sale will increase, and this will have a positive effect on the federal budget of the country. The treasury will gradually begin to fill up, increase, and the well-being of citizens will improve.
If the optimistic forecasts for inflation in Russia for 2017-2018 come true, the oil price is expected to rise from $ 55 per barrel to $ 75 per barrel. On the positive side of this news, the tax on oil sales will allow us to finally pay off some of the external government debt, as well as increase the level of social subsidies and benefits for the population.
In the end, I would like to add that during the year such a phenomenon as “creeping” inflation is possible. A slight increase in inflation indicators has its advantages, and the main one is the stimulation of the banking sector. As you can see, in any situation you can find positive moments, the main thing is not to despair, but always hope for the best.
The dynamics of growth in prices for food, consumer goods, transport, real estate, and, accordingly, a wide range of areas of the service sector is reflected in the indicators of the purchasing power of Russians. The ratio of the revenue and expenditure side is changing not in favor of the majority of citizens: inflationary processes as one of the signs of the state of the federal economy are forcing a number of consumer intentions to be corrected. In this regard, forecasts of indicators of depreciation of the national currency for the next year are extremely relevant. What to expect from the inflationary pendulum in 2018? Let's consider the main macroeconomic forecasts.
What factors will affect the inflation rate in Russia in 2018
The fall in purchasing power due to rising prices and depreciation of the monetary unit occurs for a number of external and internal reasons that affect the national financial system. Among the main factors that determine behavior in the Russian economy, analysts name:
changes in the export indicators of leading commodities - oil and gas;
the presence of a federal deficit;
foreign policy circumstances and economic action;
crisis phenomena in the banking sector, as well as dynamics of demand for loans;
an increase in budgetary spending on social benefits;
falling production levels in a number of industrial sectors;
the formation of a monopoly in a number of industrial areas, in connection with which big business is becoming the main price-forming link in the market for this segment of goods.
Note that the above parameters of influence are more related to the negative dynamics of inflation indicators observed in the Russian economy over the past 4 years. At the same time, in the circles of the leading specialized financial departments of the country, they say that already at the end of 2017, prerequisites were noticed for the possibility of a slowdown in inflation. Is it so?
Read also: Inflation rate in Russia by years (1991-2017): official data of Rosstat
What the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance predict
According to official reports from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (analysts of these departments often present the same versions of economic events in the future), in 2018 the inflation rate should not exceed 4%.
Despite the fact that a number of independent experts dubbed this figure “too optimistic”, officials assure that the prerequisites for achieving it are quite logical: back in 2016, the Russian government managed to reduce inflation from the 10% inflation rate planned at the beginning of the year to 5.4%. And compared to 2015, this decrease in inflation for the year by more than two times can be considered a record (recall, in the crisis year of 2015, the depreciation rate of the national currency was 12.9%).
Both the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are convinced that in 2018, government economists will find leverage to slow the rate of inflation to 4% by the end of the calendar year. This task must be completed, first of all, in connection with the need to reduce interest rates on lending, as well as with the aim of enhancing the investment activity of small businesses - shares declared in the federal economic plan for the coming years.
For the sake of fairness, we note: forecasts of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are not shared by all specialized bodies. For example, analysts from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation report that the Russian economy can reach a record 4% inflation rate, in the best case scenario, not earlier than in 2020. At the same time, possible optimistic figures that can be achieved in 2018 are inflation fluctuations at the level of 4.5-4.9%.
Moreover, according to the arguments of the officials of the Ministry of Economic Development, even with the assumed ruble exchange rate to at the level of 64/1, the well-being of the population will not exceed the growth rate of 3%, that is, it will still not reach the inflation rate. At the same time, officials assure that a critical situation with the depreciation of the ruble will definitely not happen.
What categories of citizens can count on income indexation
From January 1, 2018, a number of Russian categories are expected to index wages by 3-6%, depending on the industry, region of residence of the specialist, length of service, category and other factors. Which employees of the public sector will be affected by the indexation? We are talking about specialists in the following industries, namely:
employees of educational and preschool government institutions;
medical professionals;
specialists of customs and migration services;
employees of tax authorities and treasury;
employees of the judiciary and law enforcement agencies;
government officials;
cultural workers.
It is expected that the most noticeable will be the increase in the level of income of teachers and doctors, as well as specialists carrying out professional activities in the regions of the Far North.
In turn, it is known for sure that in February 2018 a number of social benefits will be indexed by 3.2%. In the category of citizens who can expect to receive an indexation increase are included.
Back in the fall of 2016, representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade calculated what exactly the inflation forecast for 2018 should be. According to the statements of the deputy of the publicized department, Alexei Vedev, during the current and future period, the inflation threshold will not exceed 4%. To mitigate the situation, the Central Bank will maintain a moderate toughness of the current monetary policy. It turns out that an improvement in the state of the economy is expected soon, which means that all its spheres will soon show the long-awaited rise. But in order to understand whether Russia will have money inflation in 2018, one will have to consider the statements of experts and specialists.
Professionals' opinions
Before starting to talk about the possibility of manifestation of the noted process, you should give it a clear designation. So, inflation is the overflow of money circulation channels with an excess amount of money. A reflection of this process can be found in the prices of goods, which inevitably begin to rise. This process acquired its own name only in the 20th century, although the facts of price growth were observed earlier. The emergence of the term itself is tied to the reform of the monetary system and the forced transition to paper bills. 
Modern inflation depends on a number of different factors:
Rapid growth in the production of a variety of goods with their own structural complexity;
social transfers;
the versatility of the pricing system;
changes in pricing due to the monopoly of individual enterprises;
reduced price competition.
Efficiency of production usually depends not on a simple decrease in prices, but in connection with an increase in the profitable mass and income of each participant in the production chain. The beginning of inflation can be called an increase in the price of products or services.
Forecasts of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the rating agency
According to official information, the planned inflation rate for 2018 is 4.8%. In the near future, the inflation rate should decrease, as well as the savings rates of the Russian Federation. As a result, consumer demand will gradually recover, while the volatility of the national currency will return to the 2014 levels.
According to the officials of the listed departments, by the end of this year it will be possible to achieve an inflation rate of 8%, and it would be nice to fix this level in 2018. For employees of the Central Bank, such a guide is considered a priority.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings decided to conduct a detailed analysis of the situation with the Russian economy. The final decision of the department's specialists reads as follows: inflation in 2018 in this territory will reach 5.5%. For ordinary citizens, this time will be even more sad, since for them the inflation threshold will last up to 6.5%.
In an average annual expression, the dollar exchange rate is as follows:
- 2017 - 65 rubles;
- 2018 - 60 rubles.
Despite the sad consequences, Russia's GDP should increase by 1-3% by the end of this year, while in 2018 its position will be able to strengthen thanks to another 2%. Therefore, there is hope to see increased consumer spending (literally by a few percent), in order to be higher by another 0.5% in the future. 
Development of the situation with deflators in the eyes of the Ministry of Economic Development
Many residents of Russia cannot calm down in any way regarding the future of their native country. After all, the life of every person here depends on the further course of economic affairs. But the economic system of the Russian Federation is currently considered so unstable that it makes no sense to talk about any specific forecasts.
The deflators themselves, which will be discussed later, are nothing more than price trends. They are used by government experts to accurately calculate prices at a specific time for a particular region and each industrial sector. Therefore, the forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade will indicate a completely different price index for the construction sector, agriculture or retail. According to the same department, by the end of 2018, the inflation rate should gradually fall. According to preliminary information, this process will be observed until 2030. Therefore, it remains to be patient quite a bit - literally in a few months life will become a little easier.
Forecasting price growth
A few weeks ago, Rosstat published information regarding price growth, which clearly shows the following patterns: in 2015, price indicators turned out to be too high (by 13%), while in 2016 their percentage dropped to a more acceptable 4-5%.
Against the background of previous years, serious jumps in price growth in different directions are also noticeable:
2008 - 13,3%;
2009 - 8,8%;
2010 - 8,8%;
2011 - 6,1%;
2012 - 6,6%;
2013 - 6,5%;
2014 - 11,4%.
The 2018 inflation forecast is based on the current period and the forecast for the next. As a result, the following picture emerges:
In 2017, the inflation rate is in the range from 2 to 6%; at the same time, its minimum value will turn out to be real closer to the end of the current period (not less than 3.9%);
In 2018, the inflation rate will be located opposite the 4.5% mark; its minimum value should not exceed 3.2%, while the maximum - 2.8%;
2019 will not move too far from the level of its predecessor, because the average inflation rate at this time will be 4.6%, with variability from 3.65 to 5.25%.
It remains only to summarize the announced information in the semblance of the final forecast. At the moment, most political and economic leaders insist that the situation in Russia will develop in a positive way in a few months. Stabilization is on the way, after which it will be time to stop the fall of the Russian currency with its further consolidation. 
But if you look at the current state of the state's gold and foreign exchange reserves, optimism somehow disappears by itself. The sad trend with a reduction in the monetary reserve will continue further, therefore, it is necessary to revise foreign exchange transactions, as well as distribute the existing amount of funds to all banks in the Russian Federation. This is the only way to manage the current supply and demand. Of course, one should not forget about the need to repay foreign obligations in order to eliminate dangerous volatility.
It only remains to add that the forecast for inflation in Russia for the near future is kept at the level of 4-5%. According to President Putin, the Russian government will do everything possible to bring closer and fix the state of the economy in such, the most favorable conditions. Only then there is a hope of waiting for an improvement in life and the entire economic component of Russia.
