What's the forecast for the dollar for April? What will happen to the ruble, dollar and oil

The beginning of 2016 was marked by a sharp increase in the value of the American currency against the Russian ruble. Subsequently, the situation stabilized somewhat, and the dollar “rolled back” to the now familiar level of 68-75 rubles. It is quite difficult to predict the future behavior of the exchange rate: a huge number of external and internal factors influencing its value cannot be analyzed and do not allow one to draw reliable conclusions. However, on the eve of spring, you can try to analyze the current situation in the economic sphere and formulate an approximate forecast of the dollar exchange rate for April 2016. Dollar exchange rate in April 2016: analysts' forecasts All forecasts offered by analysts from various agencies and departments are based on the dependence of the dollar exchange rate on the cost of oil on the world market. On March 1, 2016, negotiations between the leaders of oil exporting countries will be completed on the issues of establishing crude oil production volumes at a fixed level. According to Forex Club analyst I. Rogova, the likelihood that such an agreement will be reached is extremely low. Iran plans to increase the amount of oil produced; Saudi Arabia also does not seek to reduce the existing volumes of supplies of raw materials to the world market. That is why there is no likelihood of an increase in the cost of a barrel of “black gold” and, as a consequence, an increase in the Russian ruble in April 2016. The second factor that may influence the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate in early spring will be the meeting of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy. As part of this event, the value of the key rate will be established, which affects not only exchange rates, but also the interest rate on bank loans and deposits offered to the population. However, according to the expert, the current value of the key rate is unlikely to change following the meeting.

Based on the above factors, I. Rogova concludes that the dollar exchange rate in April 2016 will be fixed at 73 rubles. Most Russian analysts and experts indicate in their forecasts the value of the dollar exchange rate close to this mark. A favorable factor influencing the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate is the achievement of a number of agreements to resolve the Syrian conflict between Russia and the United States. At the same time, some pressure on the ruble was exerted by the statement of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation that, provided that current oil prices remain unchanged, the country’s budget will fall short of the planned financial revenues in the amount of 1.5 trillion rubles. The head of the Central Bank E. Nabiullina believes that the ruble has now reached its fundamental value and will be fixed at this level for a long time. APECON analysts expect the US currency to increase to 80-82 rubles; Danske Bank specialists share the same opinion. Barclays assumes that the dollar exchange rate will be fixed at 76 rubles. Nomura analyst D. Petrov gives perhaps the most optimistic forecast regarding the value of the dollar in April 2016. In his opinion, the Russian ruble will begin to strengthen in early spring, which will lead to a decrease in the dollar exchange rate to 67 rubles. Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences B. Kheifetz agrees with his colleague: according to his estimates, the value of the dollar in April-May of this year will fall below 70 rubles, but will not be able to gain a foothold at this level and by the summer will rise again to the levels that have become familiar to Russian citizens values ​​of 75-80 rubles. So, according to the forecasts of Russian analysts, there will be no significant change in the dollar exchange rate in the early spring of 2016. Expert opinions differ somewhat, but the overall spread of the figures given as forecasts is no more than 10 rubles. Thus, the exchange rate of the American currency in April will be about 73 rubles, while further upward changes are not excluded.

March is coming to an end, and Kommersant offers its economic forecast for the next month. Experts answer questions about what will happen to the dollar-ruble exchange rate, how world oil prices will change, what inflation will be like, and how the dollar and euro will behave on the global foreign exchange market.

1. What will the ruble exchange rate be?

2. What will inflation be?

3. What will oil prices be?

4. What will the euro to dollar exchange rate be?

Anatoly Gavrilenko, Chairman of the Council for Financial Literacy under the Central Bank of the Russian Federation:

1. I believe that at the end of April the ruble exchange rate will be 65.2–65.3 rubles/$, no more. The reason for this is the conservative position of the Central Bank, the confidence that they are in control of the situation and understand what is happening now in the money market. Elvira Nabiullina demonstrated this perfectly at the last press conference.

2. The price of Brent oil at the end of April will most likely be at $65–66 per barrel. Consumers will need less fuel due to warming, and shale oil production will develop, there will be more of it on the market. And so far we have been lucky - at the end of March it reached almost $68 per barrel!

3. In the best case, inflation will remain at the level of March. The inflation rate in January and February turned out to be better than predicted, March is also likely not to exceed the norm at around 0.4%, and April may remain at the same level. Or maybe it will even grow a little - up to 0.5%. Problems with VAT will still show themselves, everything is not as simple as it seems, and we should not think that we have already survived them.

4. The euro may rise to $1.14 per unit of European currency in April. Previously, the euro was weakened by political problems, primarily related to Brexit. But events in England are developing in such a way that not everyone wants to leave the European Union, and on such a wave there are very good reasons for strengthening the euro.

Valery Petrov, Vice President for Market Development and Regulation of the Russian Association of Crypto Industry and Blockchain (RACIB):

1. I think the ruble will lose ground a little, and the exchange rate will return to 65–66 rubles/$. The strengthening of the ruble in March was due to two main reasons - the rather serious need of our exporters for ruble liquidity; they needed to make large payments to the budget. The second reason is a fairly serious influx of foreign investment in Russian government securities, because in order to buy our OFZs, it was necessary to sell foreign currency. And as soon as these two factors stop working, the ruble will stop strengthening and return to the level of 65–66 rubles/$. Also, do not forget that anti-Russian sanctions have not been lifted, and the ongoing anti-Russian hysteria has a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate. And this will most likely continue in April.

2. If the agreements reached within OPEC+ continue, then oil will most likely remain at $67 per barrel, and perhaps rise slightly to $70. The total number of shale oil rigs in the US continues to decline, with the number now at its lowest level since 2018. The United States is the main seller of oil, not included in the OPEC+ agreement, and against the backdrop of problems in Venezuela and pressure exerted by the United States on Iraq, there is no reason for lower oil prices. The US needs expensive oil because shale oil is becoming more and more expensive to extract.

3. About the same as in previous months. The annual inflation rate will most likely not increase. But this is achieved through very negative actions on the part of the regulator; the amount of monetary liquidity entering the economy is significantly limited, and the price of money remains very high. On the one hand, we limit the growth of inflation, and on the other, our economic growth begins to concentrate in points called state projects, because only there there is targeted financing and a sufficient amount of cash. We have not seen a free influx of foreign investment for a long time and most likely we will not see it for a long time, and our investors simply do not have free funds.

4. I think that the ratio will remain at the same level of $1.14–1.15. But perhaps the dollar will strengthen a little, because negative economic problems in Europe are only growing. This is due to both Brexit and a host of negative economic phenomena in Europe. There is no need to expect economic growth there, and the demand for American currency, although not much, is growing. I think the Americans are managing to redirect trade flows in their favor, and most likely they will push China in the direction that interests them. The monetary policy pursued by the Fed is not conducive to weakening the dollar.

Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist, Head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis of Alfa Bank:

1. The key factors for the foreign exchange market in April will be the elections in Ukraine and the general situation in emerging markets. There is some risk appetite in the markets at the moment, which means that even if there is turbulence, investors will prefer to perceive a correction as an opportunity to enter the market. I believe that the ruble can feel confident at the beginning of April and possibly until the end of the month with a target of 63–64 rubles/$.

2. I expect that in April inflation will be 0.4%, that is, it will return to normal target values, which will ensure an inflation rate of 5.4% in annual terms. However, as annual inflation figures remain above the five percent level until the end of the third quarter due to the base effect, inflation expectations will remain high.

3. The dynamics of oil prices will be determined by the risk of new sanctions against Iran, on the one hand, and negotiations between China and the United States on trade restrictions, on the other hand. According to my expectations, now the United States will not be interested in escalating pressure on China, while it is likely to increase pressure on Iran, which in combination will push oil prices to higher levels, in the range of $70–75 for Brent.

4. On the eve of the European Parliament elections, the market may be nervous about the results and the risks of strengthening the positions of Eurosceptics, for this reason the euro will tend to weaken. However, since the situation on world markets may normalize if the risks of trade wars decrease, the euro-dollar pair is likely to remain around the current levels of 1.113–1.14.

Sergey Romanchuk, Head of the dealing center of JSCB Metallinvestbank, President of ACI Russia:

1. The ruble exchange rate can fluctuate widely, approximately 63–67 rubles/$, since the month may be hot. On the one hand, in the long term the ruble should remain stable and even tend to strengthen due to strict monetary policy (high rates with low inflation) and a balanced budget. In addition, there is a general expectation that the ruble will weaken, which affects the positioning of players: everyone who wanted to has already bought the currency, and sellers are waiting. But on the other hand, the results of the Mueller investigation in the United States and the next round of confrontation on the “Venezuelan front” mean a high probability of new sanctions, which could weaken the ruble in the short term. Mainly, the value of the dollar against the ruble will be determined by its dynamics against other currencies, primarily emerging markets, and it is difficult to say how the risk tolerance of international investors will change over the next month.

2. Oil prices look quite stable and will most likely continue their gentle upward drift - the range for the nearest Brent futures is $66–70 per barrel. News from OPEC+ is being pushed closer to summer, so I don’t see any particular reason to expect volatility to increase.

3. A record drop in inflation expectations and a smaller-than-expected impact of the VAT hike on prices suggests that inflation in April will be lower than forecast, which will be helped by the continued strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of the year. So my forecast for April is +0.3%

4. The euro against the dollar will continue to remain stable, most likely there will be no sudden movements from the Fed and the ECB, they are acting synchronously to maintain a soft monetary policy, so there will be no increase in rates in either the euro or dollars, as well as a large-scale capital flow. 1.115–1.135 is my range forecast for April 2019.

Group "Direct Speech"

Oil price forecast April 2016

Let's start with the most important thing for all Russian citizens, namely the oil price forecast. Experienced analysts assure that in April 2016 the price of oil will continue to increase. The main reason for the price increase is the financial market’s anticipation of the results of the OPEC negotiations, which will take place on April 17. At the meeting, major oil-producing countries should agree to reduce oil production in order to increase its cost. You can find out more about this.

Due to the rise in oil prices (for comparison: in January, 1 barrel of oil cost 27 dollars, and in March – 40), investments in shale oil production in the United States sharply decreased, which also led to an increase in oil prices.

The forecasts of the US investment bank JP Morgan, which predicted a decline in the Russian economy of 1.5-2%, did not come true. Thanks to the increase in oil prices, the decline was less significant and amounted to only 0.8%.

So, the oil price forecast for April 2016 suggests that oil prices will continue to rise in April, until April 17 for sure. No one can tell you the exact numbers, but presumably the price level will fluctuate around $45.

Ruble forecast for April 2016

The sharp fall of the ruble was provoked by a large number of factors, including the sanctions that were imposed on the Russian Federation. Experienced politicians and experts suggest that in 2016 friendly relations will be established between the countries, which will lead, first of all, to stability.

If economic and geopolitical factors worsen in the future, the ruble may become slightly cheaper. Moreover, in Russia there are still reserves that the government can, if desired, use to influence the ruble exchange rate. But since these funds are still in reserves, we can conclude that the government considers their use to strengthen the ruble inappropriate.

Experts have different opinions regarding the exchange rate of the ruble; some foretell its depreciation, while others predict an increase in price. The ruble exchange rate largely depends on the country’s economy and its policies. If suddenly the conflict continues in Ukraine or hostilities intensify in Syria, this will also negatively affect the country’s economy. When forecasting the ruble exchange rate, you should not lose sight of various force majeure situations that can also cripple the country’s economy.

If we exclude all possible negative factors, then we can say with confidence that the price of the ruble in April 2016 will continue to increase.

Due to the fact that oil prices are forecast to increase in April 2016, we can safely say that the ruble will also strengthen. So, until April 17, you can safely buy rubles on the daily time frame.

It is also worth noting that due to the rise in oil prices, shale oil production has become unprofitable, and therefore the volume of investment in this business has sharply decreased. If oil prices continue to increase, this will attract new investors, which will also have a positive effect on the value of the ruble. Based on all this, we conclude that the ruble forecast for April 2016 is favorable.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast April 2016

The direction of the price of the dollar/ruble pair largely depends on the value of the dollar, so it is worth paying attention to it. The latest forecast for April 2016 is only positive for us. This means that the price level of the dollar/ruble pair will only go down. Experienced experts assure that the value of the dollar in April will be 62 rubles. Such conclusions were made by Natalya Milchakova, who currently holds the position of director of the analytical department of Alpari.

In my opinion, the fall may be slightly different; on April 17, the price level of the dollar/ruble currency pair will fluctuate between 60-65 rubles. A sharp jump in the price of this pair may happen on April 17, the day of the meeting of representatives of large oil producing companies.

It is possible that on this day the price may roll back downwards due to the fact that the meeting participants do not come to a common denominator. It is likely that the decisions made at the meeting will not confirm the forecasts, as a result of which the price will sharply go down. April 17 is an important day for stock exchange workers, for which they are preparing today.

If you are an experienced trader and know what you are doing, then on Monday, April 18th you can make good money. And if you are still a beginner and cannot predict the direction of price movement, then it is best to close all your orders before May 17th.

When discussing the direction of the price of the dollar/ruble currency pair, we should not forget about the dollar. The United States is interested in its currency being expensive, so they are trying in every way to keep it at a high level. Various emergencies in Europe lead to instability in the EU, as a result of which the euro becomes cheaper and the dollar strengthens.

If we assume that no emergency is expected in April, then we can confidently say that the price of the dollar/ruble pair will go down.

Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2016

According to Bloomberg experts, the euro will fall against the US dollar and other world currencies. This trend is due to the fact that the European Central Bank intends to further soften its credit policy.

In April this year, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates and also continue to implement the asset purchase strategy that started in early 2015. This, in turn, will lead to a further decrease in the value of the common European currency.

Bloomberg employees also claim that by the end of 2016, the value of the euro against the US dollar will decrease by more than 3%. In addition to the actions of the European Central Bank, the agency’s experts believe that the reason for this trend is the Fed’s increase in the key rate, as well as economic growth in the United States.

Whether these forecasts come true or not directly depends on whether the European Central Bank continues to implement current policies or changes its economic course.

Also, the exchange rate of the European currency may be affected by the changing situation on the foreign exchange market. Since, despite the forecast, oil prices stopped falling and even began to rise, this could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an increase in the euro exchange rate.

You can safely use all this knowledge to trade in the month of April using the described technical instruments. I hope the forecast I collected for April 2016 will help you increase your profits in the Forex market.

The beginning of 2016 was marked by a sharp increase in the value of the American currency against the Russian ruble. Subsequently, the situation stabilized somewhat, and the dollar “rolled back” to the now familiar level of 75-78 rubles. It is quite difficult to predict the future behavior of the exchange rate: a huge number of external and internal factors influencing its value cannot be analyzed and do not allow one to draw reliable conclusions.

However, on the eve of spring, you can try to analyze the current situation in the economic sphere and formulate an approximate forecast of the dollar exchange rate for April 2016.

All forecasts offered by analysts from various agencies and departments are based on the dependence of the dollar exchange rate on the cost of oil on the world market. On March 1, 2016, negotiations between the leaders of oil exporting countries will be completed on the issues of establishing crude oil production volumes at a fixed level.

According to Forex Club analyst I. Rogova, the likelihood that such an agreement will be reached is extremely low. Iran plans to increase the amount of oil produced; Saudi Arabia also does not seek to reduce the existing volumes of supplies of raw materials to the world market.

That is why there is no likelihood of an increase in the cost of a barrel of “black gold” and, as a consequence, an increase in the Russian ruble in April 2016. The second factor that may influence the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate in early spring will be the meeting of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy. As part of this event, the value of the key rate will be established, which affects not only exchange rates, but also the interest rate on bank loans and deposits offered to the population. However, according to the expert, the current value of the key rate is unlikely to change following the meeting.

The key rate determined by the US Federal Reserve also has a significant impact on. The next meeting is expected to be held on March 15-16, at which the issue of possible changes to it will be considered, although the likelihood of making an appropriate decision on this issue is extremely low.

Based on the above factors, I. Rogova concludes that the dollar exchange rate in April 2016 will be fixed at 73 rubles.

Most Russian analysts and experts indicate in their forecasts the value of the dollar exchange rate close to this mark. A favorable factor influencing the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate is the achievement of a number of agreements to resolve the Syrian conflict between Russia and the United States. At the same time, some pressure on the ruble was exerted by the statement of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation that, provided that current oil prices remain unchanged, the country’s budget will fall short of the planned financial revenues in the amount of 1.5 trillion rubles.

The head of the Central Bank E. Nabiullina believes that the ruble has now reached its fundamental value and will be fixed at this level for a long time. APECON analysts expect the US currency to increase to 80-82 rubles; Danske Bank specialists share the same opinion. Barclays assumes that the dollar exchange rate will be fixed at 76 rubles.

Nomura analyst D. Petrov gives perhaps the most optimistic forecast regarding the value of the dollar in April 2016. In his opinion, the Russian ruble will begin to strengthen in early spring, which will lead to a decrease in the dollar exchange rate to 67 rubles. Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences B. Kheifetz agrees with his colleague: according to his estimates, the value of the dollar in April-May of this year will fall below 70 rubles, but will not be able to gain a foothold at this level and by the summer will rise again to the levels that have become familiar to Russian citizens values ​​of 75-80 rubles.

So, according to the forecasts of Russian analysts, there will be no significant change in the dollar exchange rate in the early spring of 2016. Expert opinions differ somewhat, but the overall spread of the figures given as forecasts is no more than 10 rubles. Thus, the exchange rate of the American currency in April will be about 73 rubles, while further upward changes are not excluded.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine “site”! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much the ruble and dollar will cost in 2020; when the crisis in Russia ends and so on.

After all, the current economic situation is causing unrest among Russian citizens due to its total instability . The stability of the national currency raises concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are embarrassed by rising prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and are worried about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners are concerned with one question: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions; even experienced analysts hesitate to make specific forecasts.

Some experts insist that our currency will gradually strengthen, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which one is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2020;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will learn our vision from the forecast of the ruble and dollar exchange rates.

Do you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions carried out by Western countries also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2020, even based on the policies of the Central Bank.

The motive for introducing sanctions against Russia was political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. Residents of the Crimean Peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to secede from unitary Ukraine. So, in 2014 a referendum was held, which attracted more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and the further annexation of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities And act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the residents of Crimea they wanted it themselves separation from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, candidate countries for the European Union, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit Russian banks' access to global capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil And aircraft manufacturing.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following companies in the Russian oil and gas industry:

• Rosneft;
• Transneft;
• "Gazpromneft".

The following Russian banks were hit by sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• "Gazprombank";
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The industry of the Russian Federation was not spared the sanctions:

• "Uralvagonzavod";
• "Oboronprom";
• "United Aircraft Corporation".

The sanctions consist of a prohibition for residents of the European Union and their companies to carry out transactions with securities whose expiration date more than 30 days , assistance to Russia in the production of oil products.

In addition, Russians are prohibited transactions with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also prohibited the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment And intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civilian industries.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying goods, services and special-purpose technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any EU country, not to mention entering the EU territory, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, to companies subject to sanctions, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide financing for a period of more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to support Russian military forces to Russian territory. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft that were developed by US forces or that contain elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G device.

America has banned the issuance of a list of Russian banks loan for a period of more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade and economic relations among companies and banks and so on.

As we see, the sanctions imposed are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something to ensure the normal functioning of the country and stabilize the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to refuse to support the militias in Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. In response to Russia's sanctions, the European Union is introducing retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns Middle East countries .

By cooperating, you can issue joint bonds and investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia establish your export. Trade in petroleum products is currently at a low level, and all because prohibitions And sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia achieve its share of stabilizing the national currency over time.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of Ukraine turning into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same moment, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. You shouldn’t expect such actions from the US government; by bending to Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2020 📈📉

In recent years, the exchange rate of the Russian national currency has fallen by more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall in the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will behave in the future. This is especially concerning for people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, shares and other assets from this broker .

The ruble exchange rate is falling, and it is unknown whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in prices for oil and natural gas, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the falling exchange rate of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the exchange rate through inflation targeting. basis The method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. alarming
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration And economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in the countries of Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should regain its former price value 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in the fall of 2020.

2nd scenario - Alarming scenario

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Collapses in the oil market only worsen the situation regarding the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government’s plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not include taking measures to stabilize national work. Export development is where the state’s efforts are directed.

Of course, exporting goods will bring additional income to the country as Russia copes with its production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the harvest collected by Russian farmers and earth workers.

You should not expect the ruble exchange rate to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, then we can recall that the percentage of expectations for a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The decline of the economy cannot have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage decline in GDP, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as a basis. And also the terms and conditions of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the flow of material resources into the country, which has a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current position.

There will be several reasons for this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices on the world market. This primarily concerns natural gas, which through its exports brings a large share of the country’s income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the geopolitics of the country. The recent annexation of Crimea led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also prevent the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of capital from the country.

In such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd scenario - Realistic scenario

As the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015 show, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible escalation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only intensify.

As for the price of oil, in this situation it will remain the same price of 40-60 dollars per barrel. The GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and World Bank forecasts, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator. A fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In the current situation, every Russian citizen monitors the behavior of the ruble on the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the depreciation and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Ruble growth factors

Among the many reasons, we can highlight those that have positive effect on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the benefit of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investment by Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies helps stabilize the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is poorly developed. Perhaps, soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while receiving income in the form of dividends.
• Oil price. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only to meet the needs of the country, but also to export it to countries that do not have such a resource. Russia enriches its state budget with oil sales. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income.
• Population's attitude towards the national currency. It’s not immediately clear what the meaning is in these words; people treat him normally. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country’s lending policy will become, and accordingly, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest money in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation, like residents, so Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high production volume will make it possible to meet not only the needs of the country, but also to export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors in the fall of the ruble

Along with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble exchange rate in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, and our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our cash savings into another currency, we ourselves, without knowing it, provide stability of a foreign state and its exchange rate. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the decline of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest money in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their low welfare.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a strong position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening of the country's national currency. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble is losing its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation of the exchange rate in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. The game of the population with exchange rates. Most Russians have a desire to make money on exchange rates. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, after looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people ensure secure storage of their savings through a stable currency. At moments when the ruble exchange rate fell sharply, huge transfers were made exchanging Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures a fall in the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble exchange rate will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank measures. During the depreciation of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall in the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still; industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sales is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that remains from the times of the Soviet Union does not allow us to operate at the power that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to people's distrust of domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a particular product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for approximately the same price category as domestic producers. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, by giving preference to goods from another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country’s balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said: 2020 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts on this matter.

💡 We recommend that you first familiarize yourself with the opinions of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". Following the link you will find tabs and sections with the latest forecasts from a specialist; you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Through the “Instruments” tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. The Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Russian Finance Minister, Alexey Kudrin , believes that the country's economy is subject to a huge recession in the near future. This opinion was inspired by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist Vladimir Tikhomir , I completely agree with Kudrin’s opinion. According to the economist, the economic recovery and the achieved level of stability are only a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolai Salabuto . Occupying the post of head of the Finnam Management company, he associates the reason for this situation with the rapid fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the level 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that this was influenced by several factors:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the price of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export “black gold” on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby “cutting off the oxygen” for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which completely depends on the environment and economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policies will be associated with certain activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that today’s measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to rethink the bank’s policy.

But this will not in any way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of the Finnam Management company, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors mentioned above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors behind the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses their original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These include external sanctions from other states and the country’s external debt.

The behavior of these factors is impossible to predict, but the analyst is confident that the price of oil will $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall in the ruble. This price will further reduce 10-15 % from today's value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more encouraging. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting one. The analyst says that already in 2020 the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of any of them, you need to understand for yourself the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2020 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: when the dollar rises, oil price decreases, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2020. The External Economic Bank forecasts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel and above . At the same time, the resistance level for this price is at $70, and the support level is at $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are “broken”, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. If it breaks down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of the absolute minimum over the last decade and was equal $28 per barrel. That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - the coming years: latest news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position relative to other foreign currencies, such as dollar And Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble has lost most of its value.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the value of their national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts regarding the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2020, and a dollar will cost approximately 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the price of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion on the country’s economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to implement measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some countries, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the opportunity to enter the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2020 the price per US dollar will be equal to 55-58 rubles, if OPEC's policy will help raise prices per barrel of oil to $75-80.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial flows directed to our country will decrease by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid exhaustion of production capacity, as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

We should not forget that an industry such as oil and gas will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to operate at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not benefit our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, does not give the most optimistic forecasts for the exchange rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2020 the national currency exchange rate will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be around $70 per barrel.

All world banks They all agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting a rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to boost the economy as a whole, we will have to stock up patience And baggage of actions, because you shouldn’t expect a quick return to the previous situation.

7. Frequently asked questions about ruble and dollar exchange rates 📢

Question No. 1.

Is it true that the dollar will be abolished in 2020?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the American currency has been agitating the population for some time. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects. At the moment, the government is taking all kinds of actions to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev,

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the financial world system. State policy is primarily aimed at eliminating dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the Russian national currency.

For example, trading a national resource of Russia, like natural gas, for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to depreciate in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell American treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will instantly collapse.

General Director of City Express Alexey Kichatov estimates the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov states that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the population's savings are, to a greater extent, stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial dollar disappearance in Russia . According to the analyst, this will take a lot of time, which will ultimately lead to the emergence of two shadow turnover rates. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to combat the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two exchange rates were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question No. 2.

What is the forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate for the coming week? When forecasting the exchange rate you should not take into account, news events politics

, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future; they are too suspicious and unstable. Since no significant change or stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles

against the dollar, since there are no special reasons for stabilizing the exchange rate. We remind you that the latest forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at 📊.

link here

Question No. 3.

When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon? The ruble exchange rate, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments are made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable the position of the national currency will be. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the position of the dollar in the country. And The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected by . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must be at an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from a country exceeds the import of imported goods, this makes it possible to enrich the state budget.

Speaking about this balance, it is necessary to remember that America has largest national debt . In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, which creates the country's internal debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar as a world currency should fall.
But questions arise as to why, given this situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why do expert forecasts not come true year after year, and the dollar remains the most popular currency in the world? ? What consequences could there be of a falling dollar?

If the dollar does fall, another currency must come to replace it. It is necessary to think about what currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts give Euro to replace dollar. But we should not forget that the currency of the European Union is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first and foremost Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

America's large debt to these countries is also to blame for this stagnation. The euro also depends on the dollar, or rather on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were experiencing a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything depreciated, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use it as a currency basket. exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs to preserve accumulated funds and possibly increase them.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. Using the dollar as a currency basket promotes stability and demand for America’s national currency.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If you believe the rumors that the cause of the economic crisis was one of the “powerful moves” on the part of America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

As a method of maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period there was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, since the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar exchange rate will not fall.

A fall in the dollar is only possible in the following cases:

1. sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of American currency and abandonment of the dollar as a currency;
2. If countries stop trading using the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then use the same currency to pay another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country uses its national currency, rather than the dollar, when trading and purchasing, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity; it will become less in demand.

Question No. 4.

Will the dollar rise in 2020?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the Fed’s decision. Analysts and experts predict that the Federal Reserve is planning to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2020: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our views on the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

*Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future From the latest technical analysis it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts yourself.

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9. Conclusion + video on the topic 🎥

But despite such rosy prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be influenced by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the residents of Russia. According to official statistics, in the last two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. The waste was stopped, but if oil prices continue their decline, Russia will face full budget deficit.

After all, the country’s income will drop significantly, and to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks are, of course, promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of gross domestic product.

But we need to look at today’s situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making deposits to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that everyone is looking for the answer to the questions - “What will happen to the dollar in the near future?”, “What will happen to the ruble?”, making their own forecasts and relying on their own principles.

If you have questions or suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video