What new ruble exchange rate will we have to get used to? August ruble swing - what was that? About the currency shortage in the local market

In the United States, a bill containing a number of new anti-Russian measures was introduced to the upper house of Congress. This, as well as pessimism in the oil market, explains the sharp fall in the ruble exchange rate. On the eve of Forex, the dollar/ruble exchange rate rose to its highest since November 2016 – 65.09 rubles. Since the morning of Friday, August 9, the ruble has been trading on the Moscow Exchange in the range from 66.0 to 66.5 rubles/dollar.

As the RIA Novosti agency reminds, in search of new reasons to increase pressure on Moscow, American senators decided to play the “British card”: the so-called “Skripal Case”, for whose poisoning in March London groundlessly accuses the Russian state. The United States sided with its ally, expelling 60 Russian diplomats from the country, but never formally concluded that the Russian Federation was involved in the poisoning.

It is possible that this position will result in a new package of anti-Russian sanctions, which, if the law is adopted, will be divided into two stages. The first part involves a complete ban on the export of electronic devices and components of dual value to Russia. The second package will come into force in three months, “if Russia does not give guarantees not to use chemical weapons in the future.” It should be recalled that the Russian Federation is the strictest executor of agreements on its non-use and non-proliferation. Restrictive measures could include a reduction in diplomatic relations, a ban on flights to the United States by the Russian airline Aeroflot, and a near-total halt in American exports.

As for oil, the commodity segment was put under pressure by statistics in the United States, where oil inventories dropped by 1.4 million barrels last week, while analysts predicted a reduction of 2.8 million barrels. As a result, the price of Brent fell to 71.8 dollars per barrel, and the exchange rate to 65.55 rubles per dollar and 76.13 per euro.

Attack on the ruble

It is clear, points out Vladimir Rozhankovsky, an expert at the International Financial Center, that everyone is now waiting for devaluation. But what happened yesterday with the ruble was a staged trick. “I’ve been in the market since 1996, I’ve been following the ruble since 1991. Able to distinguish fundamental weakening from a orchestrated attack, says the analyst. – In the morning, around 11:00-12:00, an article simultaneously appeared in RBC about the ultimatum of American senators to Putin: new sanctions can be postponed if Russia promises to more firmly implement the Convention on the Non-Proliferation of Chemical Weapons (meaning the “Skripal case” and Syria) . But already at 19:00 Moscow time it was announced that the United States was introducing sanctions against Russia because of the “Skripal case,” which is devoid of logic. Finally, around the same time, information appeared that Senator Rand Paul was bringing a letter from Donald Trump to Moscow. It is obvious (although still unprovable) that the above-mentioned absurdity is due to the fact that there was a leak of information, that Trump’s letter to Putin is already on his desk, so American politicians had to break the entire logical chain, all plans.”

What are the forecasts for the recovery of the ruble? Favorable, Vladimir Rozhankovsky is sure. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has a good, tested medium-term mechanism - ruble-dollar swaps. Today, according to the analyst, in no case should you start exchange currency trading without careful preliminary selection of applications for the purchase of currency. Such applications must clearly state and justify the purpose of purchasing foreign currency, especially for amounts over $250-300 million.

Difficulties and adaptation

As for American sanctions specifically, Ivan Kapustyansky, leading Forex Optimum analyst, is sure that the new package is formal in nature, like the reason itself - the attempt to poison ex-GRU Colonel Sergei Skripal in London. Dual-use goods will be banned. In fact, similar products have already been prohibited for sale to Russia by previous sanctions, but there are some items that will be added, for example, avionics. However, back in 2015, Russian aircraft manufacturers talked about the beginning of import substitution in this area.

The second package of sanctions is tougher, but again not lethal, the expert is sure. Diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation and the United States are already at a minimum, while Russians have adapted and are successfully receiving visas in the CIS countries. The cancellation of direct Aeroflot flights will also not have a significant impact on citizens. It will be possible to easily reach the USA through Europe.

The most stringent measures concern the ban on investing in Russian government debt and the ban on transactions in US dollars by state banks of the Russian Federation. In fact, this is Iran's scenario. In this regard, Ivan Kapustyansky believes, transaction costs will certainly increase sharply and Russia will make payments in euros, but in general the situation is also not fatal. At the same time, the United States will not be able to completely isolate the Russian Federation. Since it really has limited leverage.

Volatility in the Russian foreign exchange market will continue, the analyst believes. At the same time, as long as the sanctions continue to be “exaggerated,” the ruble will be under pressure. However, the current sales are still panicky in nature. Against this background, the dollar/ruble pair may reach 70, and the euro/ruble up to 80 rubles, predict Ivan at Forex Optimum. However, this same strong growth can also be offset in the future by a fall back. Until the end of the year, in the current situation, the ruble will remain under pressure, especially if oil begins to decline. It is possible that by the end of the year the dollar/ruble will reach 68-70 and stabilize, and the euro/ruble will approach the range of 78-80 rubles.

In recent days, the situation in the foreign exchange market has become so nervous that the Central Bank issued an appeal regarding the situation in the financial market. The appeal is posted on the Central Bank website.

The regulator stated that increased volatility course ruble in recent days is a natural reaction to news of potential sanctions. “Such episodes of volatility have already arisen before amid discussions of sanctions restrictions and were temporary,” the Central Bank points out.

Three months - steep roller coaster

The first block of sanctions provides for a ban on the supply of weapons, electronic devices and other dual-use products to the Russian Federation that may be related to US national security.

These measures may apply to all Russian state-owned or government-funded companies and may have a negative impact on the aerospace industry, although certain exceptions are allowed under space cooperation programs.

The second package of sanctions may turn out to be more ambitious: a further reduction in the level of diplomatic relations, the suspension of flights to the United States (currently there are flights to four US cities) and significant restrictions on bilateral trade (in 2017, the United States accounted for 4% of Russia’s foreign trade turnover, or about $29 billion).

The document assumes, in particular, the introduction of a ban on transactions with new Russian government debt and a ban on dollar payments using correspondent accounts in the United States for Russian state banks (,).

However, the bill has not yet been approved by Congress, the document may undergo significant changes or not be adopted at all, clarifies Zhanna Kulakova, financial consultant at TeleTrade. “Then it is possible that the Russian ruble will win back some of the losses, since now we are actually dealing with a speculative decline,” says Kulakova.

But on Wednesday, stock market experts began to say that “the ruble has devalued locally.”

The expert believes that the ruble has fallen into a sanctions trap.

“Sexing up” sanctions rhetoric

The new package of sanctions is formal in nature, as is the reason itself - the attempt to poison ex-GRU colonel Sergei Skripal in London, notes the leading analyst at Forex Optimum, adding that “dual-use goods will be subject to the ban.”

“The second package of sanctions is tougher, but again not lethal. Diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation and the United States are already at a minimum,” says Kapustyansky.

The most stringent measures concern the ban on investing in Russian government debt and the ban on conducting transactions in US dollars by state banks of the Russian Federation, experts are sure.

Volatility in the Russian foreign exchange market will continue. As long as sanctions continue to be discussed, the ruble will be under pressure.

Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory, Russian Economic University named after G.V. believes that the placement of Russian OFZs (the next tranche) may be difficult, and in this case we can expect a new decline in the ruble against the dollar and euro.

“It is also worth paying attention to the price of oil and the tax period for companies in August. All this will be additional factors for the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and euro in the coming month,” says the expert.

The degree of nervousness is growing at least on the domestic foreign exchange market in the Russian Federation, where the Russian national currency is depreciating at a significant acceleration and the target levels of movement in the growth trend of the American dollar against the Russian ruble have clearly shifted towards the risk of global investors exiting Russian assets, notes the head of the analytical Department of the International Financial Center.

Markets in the developing countries sector are not yet in a fever, but anything is possible, the expert adds.

As experts previously commented to Gazeta.Ru, the dollar in September may trade in the range of 65-70 rubles.

At the end of last week, the dollar/ruble exchange rate rose above 67.6 rubles during exchange trading, reaching two-year highs. The new week began with a new fall in the Russian currency - on August 13, the dollar broke through the 68 ruble mark. Since the beginning of August, the ruble has lost more than 8% against the dollar at its maximum, and in general, in terms of dynamics over the past month, among emerging market currencies it was second only to the double-digit losses of the Turkish lira, which came under strong pressure from the diplomatic conflict between the United States and Turkey.

Another “black” August for the Russian market quickly refreshed the memory of the ruble collapses in December 2014 and January-February 2016, when the exchange rate of the US dollar rose above 80 and 85 rubles, respectively. Is it possible to repeat such dynamics in today’s situation and how have the key factors influencing the ruble changed since those periods?

Oil and external debt

The sharp fall of the ruble in December 2014 was caused by large repayments of foreign debts by Russian companies as a result of the inability to refinance these obligations due to sanctions. After the first large repayments, which were extremely painful for the domestic currency, the situation with external debts subsequently stabilized and at present, if the Russian market is worried, it is infrequently. By mid-2014, the total external debt of the Russian Federation (state, companies and banks) amounted to $732.8 billion; by the beginning of 2016, the figure had decreased by almost 30% - to 518.5 billion. On average, it has been maintained at this level until now . The dynamics of the reduction in external debt is also reflected by a decrease in dollar liabilities of the banking sector due to a decrease in the external debt burden of Russian business. Back in mid-2014, the volume of foreign currency liabilities of the banking sector exceeded the mark of $400 billion, and by the middle of this year it gradually decreased to just over $300 billion.

Also, do not forget that large payments at the end of 2014 occurred against the backdrop of a months-long fall in oil prices. If in June 2014 Brent prices were trading around $110 per barrel, then by the end of that year they dropped below 60. A sharp decline in oil prices was also caused by the devaluation of the ruble at the beginning of 2016, when the price of Brent fell below $30 per barrel .

Today, the situation on the oil market is very favorable for the ruble. In May of this year, Brent quotes rose above $80 per barrel for the first time since November 2014 and, although they subsequently corrected closer to $70, overall they have increased by almost 40% over the past year. As a result, the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2018 amounted to $60.7 billion, which is three times higher than the figure for the same period in 2017. For comparison: in the first three quarters of 2016, after a sharp decline in energy prices, the current account amounted to $14.5 billion, while in the second and third quarters it shrank to 1.8 billion and 0.1 billion, respectively.

Despite the rise in oil prices over the past year, the ruble has lost about 10% against the dollar over the same period. Geopolitical risks remain a headache for the Russian currency. In addition, the new budget rule also contributed, thanks to which, along with the growth of oil and gas revenues, the volume of foreign currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance also increases. However, in general, oil prices are more likely to support the ruble than to play against it.

OFZ, interest rates and liquidity

Today's flight of foreign investors from the ruble is largely due to fears of a possible ban on the purchase of Russian government bonds (OFZ). Such a risk, if realized, could indeed have quite serious consequences. According to the Central Bank at the beginning of July 2018, the share of non-residents in the government bond market was 28.2%. At the beginning of March 2015, this figure was only 17.9%. From this moment to the present day, the nominal volume of non-resident investments in OFZs has increased 2.3 times, or by 1.1 trillion rubles, to 2 trillion rubles at the beginning of July 2018. At the same time, the entire OFZ market during this period grew by 2.3 trillion rubles, that is, foreign investors, in fact, provided half of the growth in the Russian domestic government debt market.

The cycle of reducing the difference in rates between the domestic and foreign markets is not particularly scary for investors either. Thus, since the beginning of 2015, the Bank of Russia has reduced the key rate from 17% to 7.25% per annum, and the American Central Bank (FRS) over the same period raised the federal funds rate from 0-0.25% to 1.75-2% per annum.

However, even if events develop according to a negative scenario, the loss of the Russian domestic government debt market from a large-scale exodus of non-residents (which in fact is already happening) could be compensated by domestic banks, which in recent years have generated an impressive excess of ruble liquidity, mainly due to revenues through the budget channel. Back at the beginning of 2015 - 2016, the total volume of free balances of banks on correspondent accounts and deposits with the Central Bank was about 2.2-2.3 trillion rubles. Today, the corresponding figure is 4.8 trillion rubles (as of August 10). The surplus indicator of the banking sector is currently equal to almost 4 trillion rubles, whereas at the time the Bank of Russia began calculating it at the beginning of 2017, there was a liquidity deficit in the system (-0.7 trillion rubles). Thus, the current liquidity surplus of Russian banks covers the nominal volume of investments of foreign investors in OFZs by almost 2.5 times.

Sanctions and geopolitics

It can be generalized that today, in contrast to the periods of December 2014 and January - February 2016, the ruble is fundamentally supported primarily by comfortable oil prices and a positive balance of payments; a noticeably reduced volume of external debt; economic interest of foreign investors in interest rates in the domestic market. In addition, the banking system has created an impressive surplus of ruble liquidity, which would make it possible to “pick up” cheaper government securities in the event of non-residents withdrawing from them.

However, if until recently investors’ fears were mainly associated with a possible ban on the purchase of Russian government bonds by American investors, now market participants have succumbed to panic due to information about the impending freeze of all dollar assets and settlements of Russian state banks. The moment investors receive such information, which threatens the Russian financial system and economy with apocalypse, all fundamental support factors in the Russian market cease to work. And the only reasonable investment is buying foreign currency.

At the same time, for the next collapse it is not necessary to wait for the details of the upcoming sanctions, much less the moment of their actual introduction. For investors to panic sell-offs of the ruble and assets denominated in it, rumors have recently been enough. In such conditions, devaluation peaks of past periods may become a new reality for the domestic financial market. The ruble, unfortunately, can only rely on the economic pragmatism and common sense of its Western “partners”.

The problem of the fall of the ruble is the most discussed topic of the past year. Gradually decreasing in price, in the winter of 2018-2019. The Russian currency has reached a critical minimum. Experts attribute this situation to falling oil prices, pressure from Western sanctions, and the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine.

What happened to the ruble in 2019, and how can this change the lives of Russian citizens?

Read objective forecasts and expert opinions in this article.

Latest events in the foreign exchange market and the future of the ruble

The last months of 2015 were marred by a sharp drop in the value of the Russian currency. 70 rubles seemed to be the maximum possible price for a dollar. Citizens expected that a gradual normalization of the situation in the foreign exchange market would begin in January, but the devaluation continued against the background of a decrease in oil prices.

When the price of a barrel of Brent “black gold” dropped below $30, very contradictory opinions began to appear regarding the ruble exchange rate:

• Some analysts said , that this means the collapse of the Russian currency and the entry of an economy based on hydrocarbon trade into a protracted crisis.
• Proponents of the opposite position They saw positive aspects in this: the Russian national economy, absorbed in stagnation, will quickly seek a way out of the situation, which lies in the development of manufacturing industries.

One way or another, the devaluation of the ruble continues to remain relevant, and its negative impact on the economy is quite obvious. Budget deficit, closure of enterprises, inflation, decline in the level of well-being of citizens.

The future of the Russian currency in such a situation is quite difficult to predetermine - released into free floating, it is dependent on, which is tied to oil.

In this regard, regarding forecasts for changes in the exchange rate of the Russian currency, we can talk about the formation of two points of view:

1. In 2016, the price of the dollar will fluctuate between 75-80 rubles , since this is an objectively justified rate given the officially established inflation rate of 6.5-7%. If this indicator is exceeded, the Bank of Russia will resort to intervention.
2. This year the dollar will drop to 67-68, and by the beginning of 2017 to 65 rubles . The reasons for this trend will be the growth of oil prices, the gradual lifting of sanctions and the slow activation of manufacturing industries.

Some Western experts note that the devaluation of the ruble will lead to a huge budget deficit . To prevent this, a fair exchange rate for the dollar should be 210 rubles.

Initially, the Russian budget was based on an oil price of $50 per barrel. However, at the beginning of the year it was revised to a target value of $25. At the same time, neither the Ministry of Economic Development nor the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is promising any global drop in the ruble.

Should Russians start preparing for the worst?

Such a statement is somewhat biased. There is no need to prepare for the worst - the ruble has already reached its lowest possible level and the Bank of Russia simply will not allow it to fall further. However, it is not advisable to expect a rosy future from an economy that is in a state of stagnation.

It is worth highlighting several key trends that will affect Russians amid the depreciation of the ruble in 2016:

1. Prices for goods are the most painful issue . According to forecasts, a significant increase in the price of goods is not expected. Inflation is set at 6.4% (with a pessimistic scenario of 7%). The antimonopoly service will control speculation in the commodity market. Only equipment, most of which is imported and traded in dollars, will increase in price significantly.

2. Housing and communal services tariffs – differentiated approach . Russians' concerns about rising prices for water, electricity and gas are not justified. The increase in price will be associated only with indexation and will range from 3 to 6.5%, depending on the region (the maximum percentage is provided in Moscow and St. Petersburg). Electricity tariffs are planned to be distributed on a progressive scale: the higher the consumption, the higher the cost.

3. Social payments - indexation in conditions of deficit . The Russian budget deficit in 2016 is inevitable. However, even in these conditions, a decision was made to increase pensions, benefits, and scholarships for students by 4%. Maternity capital will remain unchanged.

4. Mortgage loans - unfounded fears . In March .

Citizens’ fears that banks will immediately raise interest rates to unattainable levels are unfounded:

• Firstly , excessively high interest rates are not available to banks due to significant competition in this segment.
• Secondly , a slight increase in mortgage prices (up to 14-15%) will lead to a drop in demand for housing, which in turn will significantly reduce the price per square meter of area.

The general conclusion about the state of the Russian economy is: no deepening of the crisis is expected , although unemployment and prices are expected to rise. Stagnation will remain within the same boundaries. By the end of the year, some recovery is expected against the backdrop of the development of import-substituting industries. If sanctions are lifted, stabilization will begin a little earlier.

What do the experts say?

Bogdan Zvarich, analyst at IH FINAM:

“The first half of the year promises to be extremely difficult. During this period, the dollar may consolidate at a position of 80-85 rubles due to low oil price quotes. However, in mid-2016, the situation on the hydrocarbon market is expected to improve and the cost of oil will increase. By the end of the year, the dollar will return to the position of 60 rubles, inflation will be 7%, and GDP growth will be 0.2-0.5%.”

Dmitry Kipa, head of the analytics department at QB Finance:

“The situation of low oil prices, which provokes the devaluation of the ruble, will not last forever. Some OPEC countries will not be able to withstand production conditions at a price below cost, and they will begin to raise rates, saving their budgets. In this situation, the maximum value of the dollar will be 80 rubles, and inflation will be 15-17%.”

Dmitry Zhuravlev, director of the Institute of Regional Problems:

“Macroeconomic indicators will increase in 2016, but the living standards of citizens will decrease. But neither one nor the other will be distinguished by high performance. The price of oil will remain low, not helping to improve the situation. This requires real diversification of the economy.”

A significant fall in the ruble is not expected in 2016, but the national economy will continue to remain in a state of deep stagnation, which will negatively affect citizens’ incomes and their well-being. However, experts predict the peak of the crisis in the first half of the year, and in the summer the situation will begin to change for the better. .

Foreign investors are losing interest in Russia, increasingly paying attention to countries where profitability is higher and there are no risks associated with sanctions.

The ruble is in a very precarious position. On the last day of July, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange again rose above 60 rubles (60.3475), and the euro broke through 71 rubles (71.0350) for the first time in 8 months.

Why does the ruble ignore the rising price of oil and what will new economic sanctions against Russia lead to?

The ruble is an outsider among currencies

Of course, the main driver today remains the growing tension in relations between Russia and the United States.

According to Bloomberg, the ruble has become an outsider among the currencies of countries with developing economies. Over the past five weeks, the price of oil has increased by 18%. Against this background, the ruble was able to win back only 95 kopecks from the dollar, but when paired with the euro, the results turned out to be much sadder - the European currency added 3.4 rubles to its value.

The price of oil cannot cope with the negative impact of sanctions

The price of oil still determines about 60% of foreign exchange earnings in Russia. Traditionally, the ruble exchange rate reacts quite sensitively to the dynamics of oil prices. However, the introduction of new US economic sanctions against Russia has reduced the correlation coefficient between the ruble and oil to the lows of May this year.

At the moment, rising oil is rather a factor that restrains the fall of the Russian currency. According to many financial analysts, if the influence of Western sanctions were removed from the current situation, then at such an oil price, the ruble to dollar exchange rate could be 2-3 rubles higher.

What is most important about the new sanctions?

According to US Vice President Michael Pence, Trump will sign the sanctions law in the very near future, so by the time you read this article, this may well happen. This step destroys all hopes for some kind of easing of restrictions, which were a fairly strong driver for the ruble in the period after Donald Trump won the presidential election. By the way, our analysts even then urged not to succumb to the rush of euphoria, since in the history of the United States there was not a single case in which the president could lift any restrictions without the consent of Congress.

The new package of economic sanctions reduces the terms for which foreign currency loans are issued to state banks and resource companies, and also gives the US President the authority to introduce a complete ban on foreign currency financing of all Gazprom pipeline projects.

The most significant of the entire package of sanctions against Russia is the order to the US Treasury to work out a ban on investments in Russian government debt. This event requires further consideration.

Russia without foreign investors

Over 1.5 years, non-residents, according to the Bank of Russia, bought $13.5 billion, supplying the market with foreign currency in conditions when petrodollars became scarce. According to analysts, the increased demand for rubles has shifted the dollar exchange rate by about 10 rubles lower than it could have been. However, now the Russian market has to return to harsh reality.

First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Ksenia Yudaeva said that in June the share of non-residents in OFZs decreased by 0.7%, while noting that this part is still an impressive figure - about 30%. However, capital outflow continued in July. As representatives of European investment funds said, many holders of Russian assets increased their sales volumes in July.

First of all, investors are scared off by sanctions risks. Foreign investors are losing interest in Russia, increasingly paying attention to countries where profitability is higher and there are no risks associated with sanctions. For example, this is Brazil or Türkiye. Some foreign investors are quite categorical. Given the introduction of new economic sanctions, they do not see any guarantees that the situation will not repeat itself in the future, so they completely exclude Russia from their investment strategies.

According to analysts' calculations, within 12 months the share of non-residents in Russian OFZs will fall from the current 30% to 25%. This means only one thing – no new money will come in at all within the framework of the carry trade strategy. Even more - non-residents will sell OFZ in the amount of about 100 billion rubles.

About the currency shortage in the local market

In conclusion, it is worth noting that since 1991, the ruble has been able to demonstrate growth in August only 4 times, and over the past 10 years only once - in 2016. It is unlikely that we should expect a repeat of 2016 from this August, therefore, it is worth preparing for a fall in the ruble exchange rate in August.