What will happen to the dollar, ruble and euro by the end of the year? Currency forecast. What, according to experts, will happen to the dollar in the near future in Russia? Will there be a rise in the dollar?

The situation with foreign currency today is extremely unclear - after the powerful growth of the USD, an equally rapid decline began. Will the dollar fall further in 2020, should Russians expect a drop to 50 rubles and below? Should you buy or sell dollars and what do leading experts say?

The head of Sberbank, German Gref, said in one of his recent interviews that “the peak of the crisis has already passed,” however, he added that this cannot be said “with confidence.” Many Kremlin deputies also pathetically declare that sanctions and the reduction in oil prices have not affected the Russian economy in any way. However, other experts, for example, Stepan Demura, continue to adhere to the version that the dollar will fall further, but with minor stops and pullbacks. So will the dollar fall further in 2019 or should Russians expect it to rise in price?

In fact, there is quite positive news. If oil prices rise by 10%, as is confirmed by some forecasts, and the United States lifts some of the sanctions, and the Central Bank helps with reserve support, then the exchange rate of 60-65 rubles by May is quite likely. But this is a very optimistic forecast.

In general, the current strengthening of the national currency is primarily due to the regulations of the Central Bank. The bank began buying foreign currency in order to fill international reserves. Naturally, rates have dropped significantly. In addition, intensive investment in the real sector has now begun, which also affects the depreciation of the dollar. It’s just that it’s absolutely clear that the reserves will fill up fairly quickly, and the real sector, being in severe decline, is unlikely to be able to provide the economy with profit in the near future.

What are the forecasts

The recent news that OPEC reduced oil production quotas by only 0.2 million barrels per day makes us make rather sad forecasts for the Russian economy. Arab countries do not want to reduce profits. The cost of oil production in the UAE is lower than in Russia, the quality is higher, and the production possibilities are limitless. In short, it again began to smell like a collapse in the oil market against the backdrop of an oversupply of black gold on the world exchange. If oil falls, contrary to forecasts, then the dollar will not fall further in 2020; on the contrary, it will grow significantly, as predicted by Demura and other experts.

Again, it is unrealistic to boost the economy in the next few years and increase the share of import substitution. Especially against the backdrop of colossal investments in the defense industry, high levels of corruption and widespread money laundering. Therefore, the dollar will most likely rise one way or another. But - with interruptions and setbacks, as we observed in the spring of 2020.

Most likely, the USD will rise to 70-72 rubles by the fall, then roll back again to 65-66, and then grow again. Therefore, fluctuations in the Russian foreign exchange market can be completely used to make money. But - at your own peril and risk, since it is unlikely that anyone can predict the consequences of the Central Bank’s monetary policy with sufficient accuracy.

One thing is clear - there will be no total strengthening of the ruble against the dollar yet. There is nothing for him to strengthen himself from. Exchange rate fluctuations depend only on the Central Bank, and not on the real state of the economy. But when the crisis in Russia 2020 will end, it seems, is already known. But let’s hope for the best, and keep part of the funds in dollars and euros - it’s safer.

The dollar affects the economic situation not only in America and Europe; it is also important for Russian citizens to know the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019. The pricing policy of enterprises, the cost of trips to foreign resorts, and energy tariffs depend on its growth or fall. People with savings are also concerned about the growth of the dollar and are thinking about purchasing money to store their finances. So what should Russian citizens expect in 2019: an increase or decrease in the value of the American currency?

The dollar exchange rate is influenced by many factors:

• foreign and domestic policy of the Russian Federation;
• sanctions against Russia;
• military operations on the territory of neighboring countries;
• oil price.

The Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil sales, and the United States is developing new deposits, so rate fluctuations can be quite strong. In addition, new, alternative fuel sources have now been found, which also constitute significant competition for “black gold”.

There may also be seasonal fluctuations: New Year holidays, vacation season, tax period.

Sanctions against Russia

Due to the imposed restrictions, there was a sharp outflow of capital and a decrease in foreign investment in the country's enterprises. The restrictions affected the banking, oil, aircraft manufacturing and other industries. Large Russian enterprises and several banks were subject to sanctions:

• Rosneft;
• Gazpromneft;
• "Sberbank";
• "VTB";
• "Oboronprom".

The sanctions did not spare officials either. They were prohibited from entering the EU territory, as well as from placing assets in EU countries. Recent news reports about the deterioration of relations between Russia and the EU, and this leads to tougher sanctions.

Influence of the Central Bank

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation plays an important role in setting the rate on the dollar. The Central Bank has many financial instruments to influence the value of currencies: monetary interventions, increasing the money supply and others. The least radical measure is to reduce or increase key rates. When key rates increase, the ruble becomes more expensive and more stable, and when they decrease, it becomes cheaper. Due to a decrease in the key rate, the rate on consumer loans also decreases, and there is more money in the country.

Today the key rate of the Central Bank is 7.25%. According to experts, it will decline and reach 6% in 2019.

Also, with the help of this instrument, the Central Bank curbs inflation rates.

Unpredictable factors

Despite all the modern methods and methods of market analysis, there are circumstances that are extremely difficult to predict. These include:

• natural disasters;
• terrorist attacks;
• man-made accidents;
• change of political power in individual states.

All of them influence currency exchanges and determine what will happen to the dollar in the current period of time.

For example, before the presidential elections of the Russian Federation, there is a tendency for the exchange rate to decrease, and after the elections - for the price to rise.

Forecast for 2019

The beginning of 2018 was marked by a decrease in the value of $. The minimum bet was 55.67 ք. Since April, the dollar began to strengthen and grow in value. Today the price for 1$ exceeds 61 ք.

To plan the budget for 2019, experts need to predict changes in the exchange rate. Forecasts for the dollar exchange rate are made in three versions:

• positive;
• neutral;
• negative.

The scenario for the development of events is drawn up for 3 years and is based on an analysis of the current state of the financial market, taking into account the influence of various factors.

Positive prognosis

If sanctions are lifted and the price of oil stabilizes and rises to $95 per barrel, then the GDP indicator will increase by 0.3-0.6%. In this scenario, the dollar will collapse and its rate will be 30-40 ք.

Experts from Sberbank of Russia share the same opinion. They predict the price of American money around 59 ք. According to experts from the analytical company Prognozex, the value of the dollar will fall to 56 ք.

Neutral forecast

The Ministry of Economic Development takes a different point of view. In their opinion, the dollar to ruble exchange rate in Russia in 2019 will be about 70 ք. The Economic Forecasting Agency (APECON) assumes that the value of the US currency at the end of the year will be about 62 ք.

This is the most realistic scenario for the development of events. It will be implemented if the world situation and the price of oil do not change.

Negative forecast

The budget also provides for a third option, which involves the collapse of the Russian economy. There are two main reasons for this:

• falling oil prices;
• introduction of new sanctions.

Some stock analysts believe that at the beginning of 2019, $ will cost about 125 ք, and by the end of the year the value will reach 500 ք.

Government plans to stabilize the exchange rate

To ensure that the gloomiest forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2019 does not come true, the Russian government needs to take measures to stabilize the domestic currency. The following factors contribute to strengthening:

• increase in oil prices;
• positive GDP dynamics;
• reducing the state budget deficit.

The Russian economy is highly dependent on fluctuations in the “black gold” market, so an increase in oil prices has a positive effect on the domestic currency.

To reduce the state budget deficit, it is necessary to gradually reduce government spending over the next three years. If the government adheres to this decision, the budget deficit will be 3.3% of GDP.

If sanctions are lifted, the flow of investment into the Russian economy will increase, which will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble.

A negative factor for the country's economy is the lack of competition, which leads to low productivity and impedes the development of foreign markets. To solve this problem, the government needs to stimulate the development of entrepreneurship.

Global trends in the financial sector

The outlook for the dollar directly depends on global financial trends. Its collapse is possible if large countries of the world abandon the $ as a world currency and begin to trade in their national currency. This will lead to the collapse of the entire American economy. Russia tries to adhere to this policy and sells its goods abroad in Russian rubles.

The gradual development of the Russian economy allows us to stabilize and strengthen the cost of the ruble on the world market. It is expected that the Russian Federation will again become an equal partner in the global financial system and will participate in the regulation of cash flows.

Expert opinions

Politicians and financial analysts have differing opinions on how much the dollar will be worth in 2019. Thus, Minister of Economic Development M. Oreshkin believes that in the next three years the ruble will be at a stable level, without significant fluctuations, and oil will not cost less than $45 per barrel. Vnesheconombank specialists share the same opinion.

Alfa Bank chief economist N. Orlova has a different view on the dollar forecast. In her opinion, the American currency will begin to grow and reach a value of 80 ք.

Commodity exchange analysts are considering two scenarios:

1. oil will drop to $40 per barrel, sanctions will become stricter - then the price will be around 75 ք.;
2. oil will stabilize at around $55, the foreign policy situation will stabilize – the rate will be 63 ք.

Financial expert S. Werner estimates the minimum rate at 62ք.

Estimated exchange rate by month

The independent forecasting bureau PrognozEx calculated the price of $ for 2019 by month (beginning - end of the month):

As can be seen from the table, the scenario is quite optimistic, while its accuracy is about 80%.

Forecast from the Economic Forecasting Agency (minimum - maximum):

Where to invest your savings

The situation in the global economy is ambiguous and contradictory. Changes in fluctuations are difficult to predict with 100% certainty. Experts' expectations may be incorrect due to various political factors or sudden changes in international relations.

The Russian economy is currently going through difficult times. The negative impact of external factors can provoke a new round of crisis and accelerate the rate of inflation, which will inevitably lead to the devaluation of the national currency.

To save personal money, as well as savings from inflation, it is best to divide the entire amount into three equal parts and invest in several different currencies.

Whatever the exchange rate, the funds will be protected; in addition, capitalization of the deposit allows you to compensate for the level of inflation, and insurance of bank deposits guarantees the return of funds, even in the event of bank failure.

Today, the portal’s analysts will try to understand the current situation with the growth of the dollar in Russia and neighboring countries. The impact of sanctions on macro indicators will no longer be so great and will be extremely limited. Bloomberg and S&P even stated this. They evaluate all criteria from the external balance to gold reserves and external debt of about 500 markers.

The reason for the failure of the ruble is rather in the economic system and its mechanisms. The state is not capable of managing the national economy as efficiently as possible. Because he does this according to the recipes and rules established by our “partners”. And he has been doing this for decades, building on the skeleton of enemy methods the meat of clans and influence groups, which do not allow changing the economic system, introducing the necessary tools of management, control and adopting the necessary laws. Therefore, the efficiency of the state machine is like that of a cart.

To be fair, we note that most world currencies have also dropped by 2 times against the dollar since 2014 - these are all the currencies of the CIS countries, Latin America, Turkey, South Africa, even NATO vassals like Norway and Sweden fell by 1.5 times, but only in Ukraine - sifting almost 4 times.

Speculative pumping, long expected, nothing new. As soon as they extract money from the alarmists into a dollar, they will put it back. Look, for example, at how Sberbank is scamming people out of gold. At the current price of oil and gold reserves, the real exchange rate is 55-60, or even 50-55. Stock indices have already recovered almost completely. So we are waiting...

These are the fathers of our people:
Bourgeois, official, oligarch - rotten nobility,
They want the plebs - the poor
Take the last penny!

All capital has already been withdrawn from the Russian Federation in 2015-16, so there is nothing left to fall, 66 rubles per dollar is a banal speculative figure caused by the fact that the hamsters rushed to buy at 70 and sell half a year later at 50, as was already the case in 2015-16. m.

By and large, this rate is beneficial for the state; with high oil prices and the dollar exchange rate, excellent money goes into the treasury. The real exchange rate can only be determined by PPP (purchasing power parity), so it is equal to 1:36, i.e. for 42,000 rubles you can buy as much goods as in the USA for 1,160 bucks.

An export-oriented country cannot be crushed through devaluation, because the lower the ruble, the higher the profit of exporters and, accordingly, tax deductions to the treasury. When the ruble was at 30 and oil at 100, then Russia received 3,000 rubles per barrel, now oil is at 73 at an exchange rate of 66, we get 4,818 rubles per barrel. To put it mildly, this is not the best tactic for the United States, in which all Russian goods become more competitive, and imports are constantly becoming more expensive and are being squeezed out of the Russian market.

Well, over time the dollar will be under 70. It was 4 years ago 35 rubles. now 66. So what? In the end, it didn't get any worse. It has become worse in the USA, where it is almost impossible for locals to find normal work; factories are moving to Mexico and China. It is also gradually getting worse in the EU. Every year, at the expense of the whole world, the United States increases its debt to more than a trillion dollars, soon it will be more than 22 trillion. And it is no longer possible to pay for this pyramid - just bring it down!

Not just one dollar...

The worst thing for the country is the leakage not of money, but of other resources - human capital, if everything goes on like this in the Russian Federation, when for the same work we get a multiple less than in the West - then this will become an inevitable process. And that same vicious circle of eternal homeless people begins, because all the passionate and intelligent people begin to leave in search of a better life abroad, fueling the local economies with their labor and gene pool.

The economic condition of our country directly depends on the behavior of the dollar exchange rate. Therefore, many Russians are now interested in the question: when will the dollar collapse. New predictions for 2018 are given by experienced financial and economic analysts who have already been able to calculate how the US dollar will behave in 2018. According to calculations, the average dollar exchange rate in 2018 will be 57 rubles. By the end of the year, the average exchange rate will rise again, reaching 62 rubles. This impact on the dollar will be caused by an increase in the price of oil and a narrowing of the range of sanctions in Russia. However, American analysts predict a new economic crisis in the coming year. At the same time, the crisis, according to investor and owner of large corporations in America, Jim Rogers, can come from anywhere in the world.

The crisis will not necessarily have a direct relationship to the dollar, and may not affect the Russian economy. Forecasters and analysts cited whole variations of scenarios:

• 1) Optimistic;
• 2) Anxious;
• 3) Realistic;

According to the optimistic scenario, the price per dollar may drop to $40, but on the contrary, the alarming scenario allows for a price of in the amount of 60 rubles. This forecast is given by analysts who are based on calculations with the price of oil and calculations with other indicators. In any case, the dollar is not the only indicator that can affect the exchange rate of the ruble and the Russian economy. For comparison, you can see the forecasts for 2017.

Predictions for the dollar exchange rate in 2018

Predictions do not always come true, even if they were made by leading economists and global financial corporations and banks. Thus, at the beginning of 2017, it was expected that the average dollar exchange rate would reach 65 rubles. Often its value actually approached this value. The question of when the dollar will collapse in 2017 and predictions on this topic are still a pressing issue, because there are still several months before the end of the year and serious changes may occur with the exchange rate. Predictions from Russian and foreign analysts for the end of 2017 differ. In Russia, they expect a price of 60 rubles per dollar, while Western experts say that the price will drop and will range from 45 to 56 rubles. That is, if we should expect a dollar collapse in 2017, it will happen at the very end of the year. And, according to predictions, there is no need to wait below 45 rubles per dollar.

What will be the consequences if the dollar collapses?

When answering the question of what will happen if the dollar collapses, it is worth putting the global financial crisis first, and not the improvement in the ruble exchange rate. Of course, the price of the dollar will fall, but will this affect the general state of the economy? Russia faces consequences that are more positive than negative. Bad consequences await those who kept savings and deposits in dollars. Also, the situation will worsen for those who took out mortgages and loans in dollars, at a rate lower than that of the ruble. In Russia, financial shackles will be loosened and, at least for a short time, the economy will be freer. Purchasing power will improve in Russia. The degree of such improvement depends, again, on the level at which the dollar will be. In general, we can conclude that any changes occurring with the dollar are reflected in the economic situation throughout the world. This will affect even those countries where dollars cannot be purchased. A collapse could occur if US foreign debt gradually increases. Then, indeed, the depreciation of the dollar will begin in the fall of 2017. And replacing the dollar will require the introduction of a new international currency.

Consequences and risks for the ruble

It is impossible to say for sure what will happen to the ruble if the dollar collapses. On the one hand, if the dollar depreciates, the country's economy may improve. On the other hand, it’s the other way around. After all, our country’s economy is largely tied to dollars. For example, the dollar has fallen below 30 rubles - it is inconvenient to sell oil for dollars, since it will not be profitable. Few people need a fallen dollar. And if you sell oil for rubles, then the ruble is not particularly needed by potential buyers. The fall of the dollar consists of a decrease in the price of the dollar itself, and not an increase in the price of the ruble. These are two completely different situations. One of the most negative consequences of the collapse of the dollar is the inability to pay for exported goods. After all, more than 50% of goods within our country are exported.

Vanga's predictions

According to Vanga’s predictions, in 2018 the Russian economy will strengthen, a new page and a whole economic era will begin. Against the backdrop of alarming predictions for the world as a whole, the prophecies for Russia look quite optimistic. According to Vanga, Russia will not only overcome the crisis, but will also be able to strengthen its position on the world economic arena. The economic situation in 2017-2018 in Russia and the world can be linked to cataclysms. Prophecies related to hurricanes and floods are already coming true. Disasters cause serious damage to the economies of states, however, compared to America, Russia is barely affected by disasters. This means that Russia will not suffer serious financial losses. Also, in the predictions of Vanga and other seers there were words that the dollar would soon collapse.

Nikolai Starikov about the collapse of the dollar:

Collapse or growth?

There were no predictions that the dollar would collapse seriously in 2018. It’s worth waiting for the price to drop, but not much. With a rapidly changing financial situation comes unexpected consequences. You shouldn’t completely rule out a fall in the dollar, but you shouldn’t hope for it either. However, a number of experts say that the collapse of the dollar is inevitable. They predict a collapse in the fall of 2017. But “collapse” implies an abrupt process, and the collapse of the dollar will occur in stages and, most likely, will drag on for years. Indeed, in recent weeks there has been a decline in the dollar exchange rate. Not very noticeable, but still. Other experts note the weakening of the ruble against foreign currencies. If the dollar falls in the future, this will happen in relation to the yen and the euro, and not the ruble. The ruble is in a different weight category of currencies.

Time will tell whether the dollar will collapse, but what do you think about this?

On April 6, the US Treasury introduced new sanctions against major Russian businessmen and companies, including the aluminum giant UC Rusal, which operates around the world. Investors are trying to rethink the geopolitical threats to Russian sovereign debt, since the US Treasury at the beginning of the year said that the introduction of such sanctions would be sensitive for American investors, explains Rosbank chief analyst Evgeny Koshelev.

According to Koshelev, another reason for the weakening of the ruble is the escalation of the Middle East conflict. Last week, activists reported a chemical attack in the Syrian city of Douma that killed 60 people. The United States blamed the government of Bashar al-Assad, acting with the support of Russia, for the incident. US President Donald Trump will decide on April 9 on Washington's response to what happened. According to Koshelev, this news could add emotional pressure on the ruble and Russian assets.

The euro grew slightly more actively against the ruble than the dollar. Chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova explains this by saying that it is dollar transactions that are primarily subject to sanctions and companies believe that it is safer for them to now be in the European currency.

Another reason for the fall of the ruble is a bill introduced in the US Congress last week that would impose sanctions on Russia for its involvement in the poisoning of former GRU colonel Sergei Skripal and his daughter (Russian authorities categorically deny involvement). The authors of the bill, members of the House of Representatives Democrat Joaquin Castro and Republican Michael Turner, propose, among other measures, to prohibit American market participants from any transactions with Russian government bonds issued six months after decisions on sanctions were made. In addition, the document proposes to prohibit transactions with the debt of the largest Russian banks (Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Promsvyazbank). The likelihood of such a law being adopted in the United States is now assessed as low.

The bill was introduced into Congress on April 5 and then passed almost unnoticed. However, on Tuesday, amid general nervousness in the market, this bill became a factor of pressure on the ruble. The news about the introduction of a bill to the US Congress to impose sanctions on new Russian sovereign debt adds negativity to the current situation, Mikhail Poddubsky, leading analyst of the debt market analysis group at Promsvyazbank, noted in a conversation with RBC. “We are observing a self-sustaining process against the background of an emotional reaction: the ruble is weakening, a number of market participants cannot withstand such a movement and are closing their positions in Russian assets, which, in turn, leads to additional pressure on the ruble,” explains the expert.

The ruble exchange rate will stabilize when the situation regarding further sanctions and geopolitical tensions becomes clear, experts interviewed by RBC predict. But, as Yaroslav Lisovolik, chief economist of the Eurasian Development Bank, points out, in the short term it is unlikely that the exchange rate will return to the level of 57-58 rubles. per dollar, the correction may take several months. “In general, a scenario is possible (provided there is no further negative influence from the outside) - we will see a rollback of the exchange rate closer to the level of 60 rubles,” Lisovolik admits.

According to Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank, the exchange rate may stabilize within a month. “Based on today’s movement, it is clear that if there is no supply from exporters on the market, the rate can move down very quickly. The market in general is very volatile,” she describes the current situation. But he expects: “After turbulence and the inclusion of all risks in the market, we will return to the level of 60 rubles. for a dollar."

It is too early to draw long-term conclusions based on the current weakening of the ruble. “A correction and stabilization of the currency at higher levels (compared to those before the jump in rates due to sanctions) may soon follow. Understand how long the current depreciation of the ruble may last , the events of the coming weeks, including geopolitical ones, will help,” concludes Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Global Markets.

“As the situation stabilizes and risks are assessed, support from oil will not allow the ruble to fail. I think that the exchange rate will return to 60-61 rubles. is quite possible in the absence of an additional flow of negativity,” agrees Alfa Capital management analyst Daria Zhelannova, noting that geopolitical risks, for example from the escalation of the conflict in Syria, are extremely difficult to predict.

What are the implications for the economy?

Against the backdrop of the current weakening of the ruble, inflation at the end of the year could reach 3-4%, suggests Sergei Drozdov, an analyst at Finam Group. If the current ruble exchange rate is not a short-term phenomenon, but a new reality for the coming months, then it will affect the rate of inflation growth - at an exchange rate of 62-63 rubles. per dollar, inflation by the end of May-June may grow by an additional 0.1-0.2% month-on-month, predicts Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Global Markets. The weakening of the ruble will not have a significant impact on the level of inflation - its indicator may rise by a maximum of 0.2-0.3% in annual terms, reassures Raiffeisenbank macro analyst Stanislav Murashov.

According to the latest forecast of the Central Bank of March 23, inflation will be 3-4% at the end of 2018 and will be close to 4% in 2019. The Ministry of Economic Development previously predicted that in April-May inflation would be in the range of 2.1-2.2%, and in June annual price growth could drop below 2%.

The current weakening of the ruble may affect the pace of reduction of the Central Bank's key rate, experts say. At the next meeting on April 27, the Central Bank may well take a pause in the consistent reduction of the key rate, suggests Drozdov from Finam. The Central Bank five times in a row, up to 7.25% (the last time on March 23), and before the announcement of American sanctions it was going to reduce it further until it reached an equilibrium level (between 6-7%). The rate may not be reduced until at least June-July, and possibly until September, when the situation with the harvest (a factor influencing inflation) becomes clearer, suggests Vladimir Tikhomirov. A pause in the rate reduction is possible, but the ruble exchange rate will not be a reason for changing monetary policy, says Stanislav Murashov. He expects the rate to be at 6.75% by the end of the year.

The Central Bank itself has so far demonstrated calm rhetoric when commenting on what is happening in the financial markets. The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the market is now facing a “correction” and the usual increased volatility for such cases, so the Central Bank does not see risks to financial stability, although it has a “wide range of tools” to intervene if necessary. One of such tools could be currency interventions. “No one has curtailed the currency repo; if the need arises, we always have this instrument in stock. The question is whether there will be demand. If for the sake of financial stability there is a need to apply it, then why not,” said First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Sergei Shvetsov at the HSE conference on April 10 (quoted by Interfax).

Elvira Nabiullina (Photo: Anatoly Zhdanov / Kommersant)

For consumers, one of the noticeable possible effects of a weakening ruble could be an increase in prices for imported goods. European manufacturers of electronics and household appliances are already talking to Russian retailers (in particular, M.Video and Eldorado) about a possible revision of purchase prices by 5-10%.

Who benefits from currency strengthening?

The beneficiaries of the weakening of the ruble are the federal budget and exporters, analysts interviewed by RBC agree. A weak ruble creates very comfortable conditions for commodity exporters, says Evgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at PF Capital. For the same reason, the current exchange rate is beneficial to the budget - the ruble price of oil after the fall in exchange rate exceeds 4 thousand rubles. per barrel, the analyst recalls, although a price of 3,300 rubles is considered a comfortable level for the budget. per barrel.

A weakened ruble will help exports, says Alexey Kudrin, head of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR). “A number of industries are likely to profit from this course. Thus, in general, the [payment] balance will not be bad, it will not greatly affect economic growth,” Kudrin told reporters at the Exchange Forum in Moscow.

If we abstract from all other aspects, the weakening of the ruble is really beneficial to the budget, agrees Alexandra Suslina from the Expert Economic Group (EEG). “If what is happening now does not lead to a decrease in oil prices or lead to restrictions in terms of the volume of exported goods, then more oil and gas revenues will come,” says Suslina.

The federal budget for 2018 was drawn up based on the average annual exchange rate of 64.7 rubles. per dollar, in January-March the average dollar exchange rate did not exceed 57 rubles, follows from the Central Bank data. The budget has been drawn up; in the short term, an increase in the level of income is expected (in rubles from exports due to high oil prices and the depreciation of the ruble), while the Ministry of Finance has nothing to worry about, says Suslina. “The Ministry of Finance will begin to worry when it is necessary to allocate money from the budget to support businessmen who are subject to sanctions. So far these are just words and no specific instructions have been given,” she reminds.

Who may suffer from the fall of the ruble

If the exchange rate rises more than is observed now, it will have an impact on the budget, the economy, and the well-being of citizens, warns Suslina from the Expert Economic Group. The tension that is currently developing in the markets is a threat to stable development and a reduction in broad tax bases, she says. “It may turn out that there will be more oil and gas revenues, and the tax bases for other taxes will decrease due to the general deterioration of the macroeconomic situation,” the expert reflects. In the current situation, investors may lose interest in Russia due to the high level of risk, suggests Nadorshin from PF Capital. “Then all plans for economic development - accelerating growth, increasing productivity, industrialization 4.0 - will remain unrealized,” he says.

“Everyone will suffer. This will be felt most of all by the conventional middle class - people who are used to traveling and buying imported goods,” Suslina predicts. For less affluent groups, the blow will be less significant, “but the overall price level will still rise - it is impossible to buy only everything domestic,” the expert says. The logic of retail is that if the price of imported cucumbers and tomatoes rises, then prices for domestic products will also rise, so the price level will rise along with the exchange rate, the economist believes.

According to Rosstat, the share of imported consumer goods in Russia at the end of the third quarter of 2017 was 35%, the share of imports in food was 22% (at the end of 2014 - 42 and 34%, respectively).

Due to the weakening of the ruble, companies importing goods from abroad will be the first to suffer, Oleg Shibanov, professor of finance at the Russian Economic School, told RBC. The price reaction of importers will determine which categories of the population will most strongly feel the consequences of the fall of the ruble, he continued. “If they (importing companies. - RBC) will not dramatically change the prices of imported goods, then it will hit all [categories] approximately equally,” Shibanov said.

The weakening of the ruble will lead to an increase in inflationary pressure, foreign tourism for the population will become more expensive, but the devaluation of the ruble below 10% is generally uncritical, believes Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department of Loko-Invest. “The jump in currencies will not cause an increase in prices for essential products; the least protected segments of the population will not suffer from this jump,” Tremasov is sure.

The effective demand of the population will decrease, says Oleg Filippov, associate professor at the Institute of Industry Management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Products of Russian industry using imported equipment will become even less profitable. “Components and industrial equipment will be purchased at a higher price. The population, whose effective demand is already falling, will pay for this,” Filippov concluded.