How long will the Belarusian ruble be stronger than the Russian one? Economist Vadim Iosub: currency detective - why has the Belarusian ruble become cheaper in recent weeks and who benefits from this? What is more expensive than the Belarusian ruble?

Vadim Iosub is a senior analyst at Alpari. Specialist in methods of analysis in financial markets and trust management of investment portfolios in the stock market. Since 1998 he has been working on the Forex market, since 2005 - on the Russian stock market.

Yesterday, the Belarusian currency crossed the mark of 2.1 rubles against the dollar, and this became quite an important and, to say the least, a slightly alarming event for many. Let's figure out what's going on, whether there are reasons for concern, and what we can expect from quotes in the near future. To tell the truth, a real currency detective story has unfolded, which has no obvious outcome yet, but a competent economist is quite capable of identifying the main suspect.

In recent weeks I have had to answer the questions “What is happening to our currency?” not only from the Belarusians. Every day, Russians wonder what is happening with their ruble. They also call daily from Ukraine: “The hryvnia is falling - why?” They also write from Kazakhstan: “How long will our tenge become cheaper?” It is significant that this interests everyone at the same time, and we can immediately note that there is nothing surprising in what is happening with the Belarusian ruble (although there is one intrigue - but more on that a little later).

What is happening on the global currency arena, essentially, is this: the dollar is growing significantly against all currencies of countries that are commonly called “developing” or “emerging economies.”

We can look at the broader picture, covering the whole world, and then we will see that in the last week, collapses in the exchange rate of national currencies have been observed in Turkey, Argentina, India, Iran, and South Africa. Moreover, just yesterday or the day before yesterday, dollar rates in Iran and India set historical highs.

Taking into account today’s trading, since the beginning of the year, the dollar has added about 7% to the Belarusian ruble, but in Turkey and Argentina there were daily falls in the exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar, exceeding this nine-month figure. In addition, we note that the trend towards growth of the dollar against the hryvnia, tenge and Russian ruble is much more pronounced.

In essence, we are witnessing a global redistribution of investments. This is not a unique phenomenon, it has happened before and will definitely happen again in the future. Today, according to global investors, investments in developing countries have become more risky, at the same time, the benefits of investing in countries with developed economies have increased (in particular, this is due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve has raised and plans to further raise its rates) .

Investor money is flowing from developing countries to advanced economies. This process occurs as a result of a trigger, followed by an avalanche effect. The trigger was probably American economic sanctions against Russia and Turkey, increased duties on metals supplied from Turkey, and the threat of default in Argentina. In Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus there are no such specific reasons; we can say that we simply got caught up in the tangential distribution, with all the other developing countries “for company.”

Once again: this is a global process, we are not the main participant in it and, what is especially important, we are far from the main victim.

Can we say that Belarus can handle the blow well? Personally, I would be of the opinion that this could be said before August. At the end of summer, interesting changes began to occur in the country's foreign exchange market, to which most ordinary people would most likely not attach importance.

I propose to look not at the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble to dollar exchange rate, but at how our currency is changing in relation to the Russian ruble.

Since the beginning of this year, for seven and a half months in a row, the Belarusian ruble has generally strengthened, and the value of the currency basket has decreased. When during this period in Russia there were repeated large jumps in the exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar, the Belarusian ruble reacted in a standard way: the dollar grew against the Belarusian ruble, but at the same time the Russian currency became cheaper relative to ours.

This situation has changed since the end of August. For two weeks now, the Belarusian ruble has been depreciating simultaneously against the dollar, euro and Russian ruble. The value of the currency basket is rising, and our currency is weakening. It is important that the Russian ruble has been feeling very bad in recent days, but even in this situation it is growing relative to ours.

We come to the heart of the intrigue. It is traditionally believed that in recent years market exchange rate formation has been taking place in our country: fluctuations in the value of the national currency depend on the relationship between supply and demand. In accordance with this, it can be assumed that around August 25, the demand for all major foreign currencies increased sharply in Belarus. And here it must be said that the entity that created this demand is not very clear; there is simply no reason for such interest. I very much doubt that this is the population or Belarusian enterprises.

But nothing happens on the foreign exchange market just like that. Therefore, we can assume that our National Bank is involved in what is happening, which, when buying or selling currency, has the right not to publish information about the transactions carried out. We will be able to find out indirectly that they were carried out later, noting, for example, that the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves have increased.

What's wrong with the state buying foreign currency and replenishing gold and foreign exchange reserves? What is happening today with the Belarusian ruble and how it relates to the currency basket resembles a sharp change in trend. Since the beginning of 2015, our National Bank, in speeches and documents declaring the main directions of monetary policy for the year, has stated that it does not interfere in exchange rate formation and does not determine trends, but is only ready to smooth out sharp fluctuations in exchange rates during the day.

Meanwhile, recently, when the Belarusian ruble was strengthening against the Russian one, many representatives of domestic industry and agriculture and even the relevant ministries, right up to their superiors, complained that this state of affairs interferes with trade with Russia and makes our products less competitive in the main economic market partner. They asked to influence the situation, to intervene.

Literally at the end of August, one of the “tops” of the National Bank once again said: we will not artificially devalue the Belarusian ruble. Moreover, he explained why in a well-reasoned and detailed manner. Obviously, this will lead to a worsening of the economic situation, and the dollar may rise even more. The state's external debt is predominantly in dollars, many enterprises have dollar loans - it turns out that in the end no one will benefit from the artificial devaluation. An increase in the dollar of just 1% leads to the fact that enterprises and the state will have to spend a total of 560 million rubles more on debt servicing!

Unfortunately, judging by indirect signs, over the past two weeks the National Bank has begun to gradually artificially weaken the Belarusian ruble against the Russian ruble. Apparently, this could be the result of pressure from the industrial-agrarian lobby in the government. I repeat once again: no one caught anyone by the hand, and all this is nothing more than my assumptions. I'd be happy to be wrong.

Now about the conclusions. It is almost certain that in the near future the dollar and euro will rise in relation to our national currency, but this will happen moderately, within reasonable limits that will not cause panic. And it is important to understand that this is not a unique problem in our country, but a global trend. It is difficult to predict what will happen to the Russian ruble. I really want to hope that we will not witness how they again tried to steer the foreign exchange market manually. All previous attempts to do this in Belarus ended in failure.

If the impact on the Russian ruble exchange rate was a one-time event that will end soon, nothing bad will happen. But the very possibility that this has become possible again is alarming.

I would note that, despite the weakening of the domestic currency, deposits in it still remain quite profitable. At the same time, I would recommend getting rid of savings in the Russian ruble, because in the coming months, judging by statements by representatives of the US government, a whole cascade of sanctions shocks may await him.

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How is the Belarusian ruble regaining its position? AiF asked to answer this question Candidate of Economic Sciences Elena SEMAK.

The exchange rate (i.e. the ratio of the price of the national currency to the foreign currency, for example, the Belarusian ruble to the dollar) is affected by the supply and demand for foreign currency. Dollars and euros are needed by enterprises that purchase goods for import, as well as by the population - for tourist trips abroad or for the purpose of savings. At the beginning of 2017, the volumes of foreign currency purchased by these two categories decreased.

According to the National Bank, in January of this year, business entities - residents of the Republic of Belarus, bought more currencies than they sold, the difference amounted to 13.1 million USD. This is much less than in January last year, when this excess was USD 198.2 million.

At the same time, our exporters increased their revenue. Compared to January 2016, the volume of foreign currency sales by Belarusian enterprises in the first month of 2017 increased by USD 262.7 million. According to the expert, this indicates a possible improvement in the state of Belarusian foreign trade.

Thus, the first factor that influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble was an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for foreign currencies from business. It is also necessary to add: Belarusian enterprises prefer to buy currency from banks (on the over-the-counter market). On the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange (BCSE) they purchased only 14.3 million USD, while outside the exchange - 1,278.1 million USD. Namely, exchange rates are set on the exchange.

The second factor, according to the expert, was the high level of spending by the population during the holidays (dollars were exchanged for rubles, for which goods for the feast were then bought), the third factor was the low level of income, which forces the population to spend foreign currency savings.

Another aspect is political: the sharp weakening of the European currency on the BVSE was largely due to the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar on the Forex market. This is due to fears that the post of President of France could be taken by the leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, who, if she wins, could withdraw the country from the euro zone and initiate the return of the franc as the national currency of France.

According to Elena Semak, we must not forget that at the same time the Russian ruble is strengthening.

The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is determined by the sum (basket) of 3 currencies: euro, dollar, Russian ruble. And the latter’s share in the basket is 50%. Most of our foreign trade is connected with Russia, and the Belarusian ruble is weakening in relation to the Russian ruble.

What's the forecast?

Forecasting further changes in the exchange rate is a very difficult matter. At the end of 2016, the majority of economists expected, at best, a gradual depreciation of the Belarusian ruble at the same rate as inflation. The further forecast for the development of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate depends on the success of our foreign trade, the growth or decline of household incomes and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates on world markets.

Summary

The following main factors had the greatest impact on the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble:

1. Increase supply of foreign currency in Belarus (due to various reasons: the success of Belarusian exporters, the still low level of income of the population (people are forced to spend foreign currency savings), etc.). When supply is higher than demand, the price of the product ( dollars and euros are also a kind of “commodity”. - Prim.) falls.
2. Decline demand for dollars and euros from business;
3. Seasonal factor (the population spends more foreign currency during the New Year holidays).

It’s hard to imagine, but in the very center of the Belarusian capital, practically on the main square of the city, there is a monstrous place, compared to...